The future of the welfare state Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schroeder Budapest, September 16th Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schroeder Fachbereich 05 Politisches System der

The future of the welfare state

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schroeder

Budapest, September 16th


Fachbereich 05

Politisches System der BRD

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Budapest, September 16th, 2009

Structure:

I. The welfare state

II. The challenges of the welfare state

II. The crisis and its impacts on the welfare state

IV. Rebuilding the welfare state


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Typology (Esping-Andersen)

conservative contribution-financed, acquisition-centered

social democratichigh tax volume, based on infrastructure

liberaltaxfinanced public basic pension, supplemented by private coverage


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Social expenditure (percentage of GDP) in Germany 1960-2007 (source: Sozialbudget 2007, BMAS 2008)


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I. The change of the welfare state

Social expenditure (percentage of GDP) in the EU-27 (2006)(source: Eurostat) wird ersetzt/ergänzt durch Langzeitvergleich


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EU-27 average



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I. The change of the welfare stateChange of the

age pyramid

1910-2050 (est.)

In Germany


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II. The challenge of the welfare state


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percentage of population elder than 65 years 1998-2008 (Source: Eurostat)

Germany Hungary EU-27

1998 15,8 % 14,7 % 15,3 %

2003 17,5 % 15,4 % 16,2 %

2008 20,1 % 16,2 % 17,0 %

II. The challenge of the welfare state


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• Unemployment rates in Germany & Hungary 1999-2007 (source: destatis.de)

II. The challenges of the welfare stateStructural change in the employment market in Germany 1992-2007: rapid growth of the third sector (yellow line) (source: Statistisches Jahrbuch 2008)


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Numbers of employees subject to social insurance contribution decline…

…and low wage employment rates rise


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II. The impact of increasing low wage sectors


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Rapid growth of low wage jobs, slow growth of minimum wage jobs

Women and younger people are above average in low wage jobs



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Growth of female employment rates and decline of male employment rates over the last 40 years


Rise of poverty in Germany 1998-2007 (source: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung)


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II. The crisis and its impacts on the welfare statePolitical crisis

• Neoliberal direction: competitive ability – weaken of the state und strnegthen of self responsibility

• Weaken of trade unions

• Bureaucracy-control-criticism: More quality, less paternalism

Destabilization of the coordinated market economy Rhenish capitalism vs. anglo-saxon capitalism


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III. The crisis and its impacts on the welfare state


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III. The crisis and its impacts on the welfare stateDecline of economic growth

Temporary keynesianism

Financial problems of the state

cut-back programs concerning» social expenditure» education» subventions» pensions» …


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3 8 ,0

2 6 ,6

3 3 ,7

1 ,7

S ta te b e n e fi t

In d iv id u a l

E n te rp rise sO th e r

Hybrid structure of German Welfare StateFinancing of social welfare in % 2006 (source: bmas.de)



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Reforming the German Welfare State from 1989 on, accelerated under social democratic government 2001-2003

New definition of German social policy

Transformation of the social insurance state:

New (early) education policy, family policy, integration of migrants and even inclusion policy as important parts of social policy

New pluralism and new relationship by the main actors of welfare policy:

State, social insurance, welfare groups, private companys, households

self responsibility is getting more important: but it needs a strong social state



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Reforming the German Welfare State from 1989 on, accelerated under social democratic government 2001-2003

New main focus of social policy

Changing focus to more infrastructure (Kindergarden, schools etc.) and activating policy

New mixture of social support

Less increase in monetary transfer to more increase by institutional support



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Obstacles: implementing social reforms

Party competition: Social democratic party is the first victim of cut back benefits and new activation policy: Building up a another left party

Generational and Demographic problems: fewer young working people have to support more and more old people

Status orientation: people are oriented to their occupations;if this is not longer the reference for the unemployment policy

IV. Rebuilding the welfare state: conclusion


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labor market state family individuals

I. Golden Age full employment for

men

normal contracts

redistribution to reach equality

decommodification

passive

men at work, women at home

Promot oriented

II. Third Way new full employment for men and women

increase of precare work

less redistribution

recommodification

feminisation of labor market household as a workplace

Promot and demand

III. post-

Third Way

regulation of precare work

redistribution again

focus on infrastructure

Stronger help for families

Promote and demand

Thank you for your attention!


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Documents

The future of the welfare state Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schroeder Budapest, September 16th Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Schroeder Fachbereich 05 Politisches System der