The Future of Wind Energy: Work From The UMass IGERThome.engineering.iastate.edu/~jdm/wesep594/Erin... · The Future of Wind Energy: Work From The UMass IGERT Presented by Erin Baker

The Future of Wind Energy: Work From The UMass IGERTPresented by Erin BakerProfessor, Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Director, NSF IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy, Environmental Impacts, and PolicyUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst

EXPERT ELICITATION SURVEY ON FUTURE WIND ENERGY COSTSPresented by Erin BakerProfessor, Industrial Engineering and Operations Research Director, NSF IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy, Environmental Impacts, and PolicyUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst

Based on: Wiser, Jenni, Seel, Baker, Hand, Lantz, & Smith (2016) Nature Energy Vol 1 : 16135

Expert ElicitationA structured method for eliciting subjective probabilities from experts.

Summary of key results

Estimated change in LCOE over time across all three scenarios. Depicts the median of expert responses for expected LCOE reductions in the median (50th percentile) scenario as well as the low scenario (10th percentile) and high scenario (90th percentile) in percentage terms relative to 2014 baseline values. Floating offshore wind is compared against the 2014 baseline for fixed-bottom offshore. See Supplementary Discussion for full results.

Estimated Change in LCOE over time

Significant uncertainty around cost reductions for floating offshore

Note: Change is shown relative to baseline for fixed-bottom offshore as no 2014 baseline was established for floating offshore

$80/Mwh$75/Mwh

Historical and forecast experience curves for onshore wind

11

10

100

1000

10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

LCO

E $/

MW

h

cumulative capacity (MW)

Historical US LCOE: Good to Excellent Sites (DOE 2015b)Historical Denmark LCOE (DEA 1999)Historical Coastal European LCOE (Lemming et al. 2009)Historical Global LCOE (BNEF 2015a)

LR 15.5LR 10.5%

LR 18.6%LR 17.8%

Historical LCOE estimates come from four sources (Global: BNEF 2015a; US: DOE 2015b; Denmark: DEA 1999; European Coastal: Lemming et al.2009). Historical single-factor learning rates (LRs) are calculated based on cumulative global wind capacity. To estimate the implicit learning rate from the expert elicitation, we use median-scenario LCOE estimates and a range of projections for cumulative global wind capacity from IEA “New Policies” (IEA 2015), Bloomberg “Base Scenario” (BNEFb 2015), and GWEC “Moderate Scenario” (GWEC 2014).

Forecast experience curves for offshore wind

12

10

100

1000

10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000

LCO

E $/

MW

h

Cumulative Capacity

Historical US LCOE: Good to Excellent Sites (DOE 2015b) Historical Denmark LCOE (DEA 1999)

Historical Coastal European LCOE (Lemming et al. 2009) Historical LCOE (Denmark, Germany, Global) (BNEF 2011)

Historical Global LCOE (BNEF 2015a) Expert Survey: Low Scenario Forecast

Expert Survey: Median Scenario Forecast Expert Survey: High Scenario Forecast

Expert survey offshore low Expert survey offshore mid

Expert survey offshore high Expert survey offshore low

Expert survey offshore mid Expert survey offshore high

Offshore Wind Experience curves, assuming cumulative learning

Offshore Wind Experience curves, assuming a fresh start

Estimated change in LCOE for (a) onshore and (b) fixed-bottom offshore: expert survey results vs. other forecasts. Depicts the median of expert responses for expected LCOE reductions in the median (50th percentile) scenario as well as the low scenario (10th percentile) and high scenario (90th percentile) in percentage terms relative to 2014 baseline values. Other forecasts are included for comparison, originally compiled and presented in a U.S. Department of Energy report (DOE 2015).

Conclusions• Significant opportunity for cost reductions• Option value in policies that increase future flexibility

Erin Baker, Professor of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Director of IGERT

IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering, Environmental Impacts, and Policy

University of Massachusetts, Amherst

A diverse group of PhD students interested in Wind Energy

Area # MajorsEngineering 17 Mech, Indus, CivilEnvironment 9 Wildlife ecologyPolicy 4 Env. Conservation;

Planning; Poli Sci

IGERT Fellows, Associates, and Alumni 2015-2016

UMass IGERT

• 17 fellows• Departments of

Mechanical & Industrial EngineeringCivil & Environmental EngineeringElectrical & Computer Engineering

Engineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems

20Mechanical & Industrial Engineering [email protected]

UMass IGERTEngineering Offshore Wind Energy Systems

Understanding the impacts and benefits of offshore wind coupled with storage• Underwater CAES• Environmental Implications• Multi-objective Optimization • Resource Assessment

Carson Pete

Energy Conversion Unit

Underwater Storage System

Deep-Water Floating Wind Turbine

𝑁𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒= 𝑓(𝑑, 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟,𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑟, 𝑉)

Advisor: Jon McGowan

Energy Conversion Unit

Underwater Storage System

Deep-Water Floating Wind Turbine



Design optimization of floating offshore wind turbine rotors

• Explicitly account for aerodynamic and platform motion coupling in design load cases

• Reduce sensitivity to meta-ocean conditions• Improve aerodynamic efficiency and reduce cyclical loading

Evan GaertnerAdvisor: Matt Lackner

575 580 585 590 595 6000.48

0.49

0.5

0.51

0.52

0.53

0.54

0.55

Time(s)

Coe

f. of

Pow

er, C

p

NREL 5MW Reference BladeOptimized, OnshoreOptimized, Spar with periodic waves



William La Cava

- + TG V1

Data

Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization

Control Design

TurbineDynamics

Automatic identification of closed-loop wind turbine dynamics• Control Design• Evolutionary

Optimization

Advisor: Kourosh Danai

23Mechanical & Industrial Engineering [email protected] 650 655 660 6650

5

10

15

Time (s)

Res

ulan

t Mud

line

Mom

ent (

MN

-m)

1% Damping

5% Damping


Casey Fontana• Quantifying role of foundation damping

in the dynamics of monopile-supported offshore wind turbine

• Examining efficient multiline anchor systems for floating offshore wind turbines

Advisors: Sanjay ArwadeDon DeGroot

U

Wake-induced vibration of clustered cylinders for new mooring systemsDan Carlson

UVortex shedding of upstream cylinder vibrates downstream cylinder

The cylinder response is comprised of many higher structural modes: fatigue!


Rachel Koh

• Evaluating if renewable bio-based materials can be used for megawatt-scale wind turbine blades

• Investigating the mechanical properties of wood and flax laminates to see if they have potential for the wind turbine blade application

Advisors: Matt LacknerBob HyersPeggi Clouston

Portfolio 1

Portfolio 2

Portfolio 3

hydro 3000 3000 10000onshore wind 5000 3000 10000

nuclear 4091 2000 2700solar 5000 3000 10000

natural gas 10000 15000 5000coal 6000 500 5000

Table 1: The Level of Capacity (MW) in each Generation Portfolio

Figure 5: The level of Capacity and Energy for each technology

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3

Equal Weight Preference Scenario

Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh) Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)

Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle Water Cosumption (L/MWh)

Fatalities/GWh Jobs (FTE/GWh)

Evaluation of Generation Portfolios for the New England Power System

Destenie Nock and Erin Baker

Chart1

hydro

wind

nuclear

Solar PV

Natural gas

coal

Energy

Portfolio 1 - Energy by Source

0.0763290966

0.0605439388

0.2795544622

0.0783791171

0.4976766434

0.0075167418

Information

All of the sustainability infromation is calculated in the Data sheet. The capacity factor was not taken into account on the par graphs on the right. This is due to the provided portfolios being reliable, which was the purpose of capacity factor in the origional model.INPUTSOUTPUTS

The only input values are the power output and capacity for each technology in sheets Portfolio 1-3The sustainability factors and graphs found in the Data and Contribution Charts sheets.

The Contribution Charts sheet contains the pie graphs for each chart, showing how each technology contributes to the installed capacity and the total energy output.

Sheets Portfolio 1-3 calculate the sustainability factors for each input Portfolio. The installed capacity and energy output are the only inputs. This will adjust the data in the Data sheet.

Preference Scenarios contains the same weights Klein and Whalley used for the sustainability factors. They are used to make the stacked graphs in the Data sheet.

LCOE - Portfolio 1-3 calculates the LCOE value for each portfolio using the capacity factors found in sheets Portfolio 1-3

Results

Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 1237.5468088014767.9074757414354269.39002751516.28046740470.00000554750.58370917040.44223504880.06478026280.08660176290.10541629950.0698068809

Portfolio 2310.7365903656749.1696617697373532.0196226421359.83500649130.00000712640.56729074140.55226415090.05374489250.06803123830.08034895120.0570357755

Portfolio 3215.64509466442118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000544340.70280137690.34016393440.07877704070.11081367270.13843571430.086156731

min215.6450946644749.1696617697354269.39002751359.83500649130.00000544340.56729074140.34016393440.05374489250.06803123830.08034895120.0570357755

max310.73659036562118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000712640.70280137690.55226415090.07877704070.11081367270.13843571430.086156731

Normalized Life Cycle GHGNormalized Air PollutionNormalized Land UseNormalized Water UseNormalized FatalitiesNormalized JobsNormalized CFNormalized 3% LCOENormalized 7% LCOENormalized 10% LCOENormalized 4% LCOE

Portfolio 10.76967746720.986314405110.27563370160.93814479870.12115970810.51875997090.55915208860.56593109050.56844990170.5614462127

Portfolio 2010.952520579910001111

Portfolio 310001110000

Equal WeightLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.10005807070.12822087270.130.03583238120.12195882380.01575076210.06743879620.07268977150.07357104180.07389848720.0729880077

Portfolio 200.130.12382767540.130000.130.130.130.13

Portfolio 30.130000.130.130.130000

AvailabilityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.46688397380.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621

Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01

Portfolio 30.010000.010.010.90000

Climate ChangeLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.69270972050.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.00518759970.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621

Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01

Portfolio 30.90000.010.010.010000

Climate Change-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.34635486020.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.00242319420.01037519940.25161843990.25466899070.25580245580.2526507957

Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.450.450.450.45

Portfolio 30.450000.020.020.020000

EconomicLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.00518759970.50323687970.50933798140.51160491150.5053015914

Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.90.90.90.9

Portfolio 30.010000.010.010.010000

EnvironmentalLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.17702581750.22685231320.230.06339575140.0281443440.00363479120.01556279910.01677456270.01697793270.01705349710.0168433864

Portfolio 200.230.21907973340.230000.030.030.030.03

Portfolio 30.230000.030.030.030000

JobsLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.10904373730.00518759970.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621

Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01

Portfolio 30.010000.010.90.010000

Jobs-climate change-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.23090324020.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.03634791240.01037519940.16774562660.16977932710.17053497050.1684338638

Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.30.30.30.3

Portfolio 30.30000.020.30.020000

Jobs-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.01539354930.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.05452186870.01037519940.25161843990.25466899070.25580245580.2526507957

Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.450.450.450.45

Portfolio 30.020000.020.450.020000

Socio-economicLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.0230903240.22685231320.030.0082690110.21577330370.02786673290.01556279910.12860498040.13016415080.13074347740.1291326289

Portfolio 200.230.02857561740.030000.230.230.230.23

Portfolio 30.030000.230.230.030000

Results

Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)

Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)

Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycle

Water Cosumption (L/MWh)

Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)

LCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Availability

Contribution Charts





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Equal Weight

Portfolio 1





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Climate Change

Portfolio 2





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Climate change-economy

Portfolio 3





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Economic

Preference Scenarios





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Environmental

LCOE - Portfolio 1





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Jobs

LCOE-Portfolio 2





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Jobs-climate change-economy

LCOE - Portfolio 3





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Jobs-economy





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Socio-economic

Energy ContributionPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Percentage of Installed CapaciyPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Capacity

% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contributionhydro0.0906590916

geothermal binary0%0%0%geothermal binary0%0%0%wind0.151098486

hydro8%10%15%hydro9%11%23%nuclear0.1236287812

offshore wind0%0%0%offshore wind0%0%0%Solar PV0.151098486

onshore wind6%4%12%onshore wind15%11%23%Natural gas0.302196972

nuclear28%14%19%nuclear12%8%6%coal0.1813181832

biopower0%0%0%biopower0%0%0%

PV8%5%16%PV15%11%23%Energy

Geothermal flash0%0%0%Geothermal flash0%0%0%hydro0.0763290966

Natural gas50%68%31%Natural gas30%57%12%wind0.0605439388

coal1%0%8%coal18%2%12%nuclear0.2795544622

CSP-MB0%0%0%CSP-MB0%0%0%Solar PV0.0783791171

CSP-TES0%0%0%CSP-TES0%0%0%Natural gas0.4976766434

CSP-FF0%0%0%CSP-FF0%0%0%coal0.0075167418

Portfolio 1-Energy Contribution



Portfolio 1 - Capacity Contribution



Portfolio 2 - Energy Contribution


Capacity

Portfolio 1 - Capacity by Source

Energy


New England Power Output (MW)New England Installed Capacity (MW)Energy Percentage ContributedPercentage of Total CapacityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)GHG ContributedAir pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Air Pollution ContributedLand use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleLand use (m^2/MW)Land Use ContributedWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Water Consumption ContributedFatalities/GWhFatalities ContributedJobs (FTE/GWh)Jobs ContributedCF Klein minCF-kleinCFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE - 3% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rateLCOE - 4% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE - 7% ContributedLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE - 10% Contributed

geothermal binary000%0%6013105.4210682820174100.0000002101.2200.750.95000000000

hydro111730008%9%70.5343036764554.198100314325.012957682.6268140.8177450064491342.79397293970.00000580.00000044270.960.07327593280.450.870.37233333330.06140591930.00468705830.06834245670.0052165180.09151874050.00698554280.1174820690.0089673002

offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000

onshore wind88650006%15%110.6659833265965.81221812221.169379.210483.09207941740.260.01574142410.000000520.00000003150.330.01997949980.240.410.17720.08299864470.00502506490.09167930360.00555062610.12068302750.00730662580.15317456990.0092737918

nuclear4091409128%12%123.354653546521259.26554598880.1329039.43590.10562992962725761.78590952580.000000920.00000025720.470.13139059720.850.910.04314099440.01206025750.04663562090.01303719590.05831182920.01630133210.07139215020.0199579941

biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000

PV114750008%15%483.76219762279362.15463987970.8138316.245789.525852951231.80271969390.000000130.00000001021.470.11521730220.180.220.22940.14247902670.01116738030.16003785490.01254362580.21870522170.01714192220.28442758370.0222931829

Geothermal flash000%0%58013102.2143559104200.0000002200.9100.750.9000000000

Natural gas72831000050%30%449223.4568129015988491.70452371190.3132587.29847.7531655133795395.65293152930.00000940.00000467820.480.23888478880.40.850.72830.04677987570.02328125150.04820970940.02399284640.05298705440.02637041940.0583388950.0290339055

coal11060001%18%7685.772857728619260144.77244772451.48311155.256418.0955546825189314.22919229190.0000170.00000012780.660.00496104960.80.850.01833333331.13869152540.00855925021.25933135470.00946606871.66241184850.01249592072.11396445030.015890125

CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000

CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000

CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000

total1463433091100%100%237.5468088014767.9074757414354269.39002751516.28046740470.00000554750.58370917040.44223504880.06478026280.06980688090.08660176290.1054162995

Use 4% discount rate

Do sensitivity on this-see how it changes

Show 4% in graphs

competetive level is 5 cents



hydro1450300010%11%70.6935428767555.449265459525.012957682.6334831.992452834491444.95729415780.00000580.00000057460.960.09511445170.450.870.48333333330.04792380130.0047481730.0532673270.00527759650.07112105740.00704650040.09112177320.0090281224

offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000

onshore wind53230003.6%11%110.3998633413963.48971643321.169379.27854.24905660380.260.00945131530.000000520.00000001890.330.01199590020.240.410.17733333330.08293909680.00301493680.09161322890.0033302520.12059514550.00438377980.15306225820.0055639987

nuclear2000200014%8%121.639904338921228.97164332080.1329039.42191.65283018872725372.39494362830.000000920.00000012570.470.06422958660.850.910.04314099440.0058955920.04663562090.00637316310.05831182920.00796881850.07139215020.0097563581

biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000

PV68830005%11%482.256508370379337.27939870170.8138316.244337.6875471698231.08124359410.000000130.00000000611.470.06910556880.180.220.22933333330.14252044510.00669997040.16008437750.00752566120.21876879880.01028445050.28451026620.0133749958


Natural gas99641500068%57%449305.6942944995988672.66361462250.3132587.218445.5849056604795541.2627263410.00000940.00000639980.480.32680013670.40.850.66426666670.04800878120.03268599220.04957644670.03375331160.05481431350.03731942740.06068205570.0413143835

coal15000%2%7680.0524769388192601.3160232321.48311155.25870.852830188718930.12934745470.0000170.00000000120.660.00004509740.80.850.00210.24783991580.000700228211.35370501780.000775791315.04860954490.001028261719.18784172790.0013110927

CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000

CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000

CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000

total1463526500100%100%310.7365903656749.1696617697373532.0196226421359.83500649130.00000712640.56729074140.55226415090.05374489250.05703577550.06803123830.0803489512



hydro21351000015%23%71.0289156627558.084337349425.012957682.6692665.7142857144491660.12289156630.00000580.00000085250.960.14110843370.450.870.21350.10508019030.01544552190.1171771650.01722363150.1575954460.02316463180.20287419370.0298200622

offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000

onshore wind16861000012%23%111.27683304659611.14327022381.169379.216248.0562060890.260.03017969020.000000520.00000006040.330.03830499140.240.410.16860.08703843320.01010304980.09616187780.01116206030.12664503240.01470041480.16079391330.0186642711

nuclear2700270019%6%122.23063683321239.40791738380.1329039.41836.21498829042725506.54044750430.000000920.0000001710.470.08736660930.850.910.04314099440.00801932430.04663562090.00866892780.05831182920.01083937620.07139215020.01327083

biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000

PV22931000016%23%487.577555938793125.18753872630.8138316.248973.3583138173233.63091222030.000000130.00000002051.470.23206265060.180.220.22930.14254116330.02250236750.1601076490.02527551390.21880060120.03454112070.28455162540.0449209554


Natural gas4482500031%12%449138.5485714286988304.86857142860.3132587.23815.831381733795245.31428571430.00000940.00000290060.480.14811428570.40.850.89640.04438919970.01369723880.04555089970.01405570620.04943235930.01525341370.05378058050.0165951506

coal122950008%12%76864.9825817556192601629.64130808951.48311155.236435.03512880561893160.17191049910.0000170.00000143840.660.05584440620.80.850.24580.10647969530.00900953840.1154777840.00977089130.14554210080.01231471540.17922177680.015164445

CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000

CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000

CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000

total1452542700100%100%215.64509466442118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000544340.70280137690.34016393440.07877704070.0861567310.11081367270.1384357143


GHGAir PollutionLandWaterFatalitiesJobsCF3% LCOE7% LCOE10% LCOE4% LCOE

Equal0.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.13Want land use in m^2/MW

Availability0.010.010.010.010.010.010.90.010.010.010.01land per installed capacity

Climate Change0.90.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01say that offshore wind is a different type of land, provided sensitivity

Climate Change-economy0.450.020.020.020.020.020.020.450.450.450.45review all factors for installed capacity, not kWh output

Economic0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.90.90.90.9Jobs could change, look into all of them

Environmental0.230.230.230.230.030.030.030.030.030.030.03Decide if they should change or not

Jobs0.010.010.010.010.010.90.010.010.010.010.01Water use would change, be dependent.

Jobs-climate change-economy0.30.020.020.020.020.30.020.30.30.30.3Defined portfolio

Jobs-economy0.020.020.020.020.020.450.020.450.450.450.45Which vary with capaciy, which vary with energy

Socio-economic0.030.230.030.030.230.230.030.230.230.230.23Land use fixed by capacity

Jobs heavily based by capacity/building

Water use and emmisions based on energy output

Am I looking at these portfolios over a lifetime or just one year?

just one year, not over an entire lifetime

Pick 3 or 4 interesting portfolios

Leave N at 30

C_CapD_pvCFC_o&mC_o&m,fC_o&m,vC_fuelHRThNDR 3%DR 4%DR 7%DR 10%CRF 3%CRF 4%CRF 7%CRF 10%C_o&m-totalLCOE - 3%Klein-3%error-3%LCOE - 4%LCOE - 7%Klein-7%error 7%LCOE - 10%Klein - 10%error 10%

Geothermal Binary473467%00.0161400039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.05-0.05000.07-0.0700.087-0.087

Hydro256254%0.37233333330.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.0094450730.06140591930.0270.03440591930.06834245670.09151874050.040.05151874050.1174820690.0510.066482069

Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128

Onshore Wind178383%0.17720.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01797277380.08299864470.0370.04599864470.09167930360.12068302750.0530.06768302750.15317456990.0660.0871745699

Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498

Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115

PV466983%0.22940.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01094775730.14247902670.144-0.00152097330.16003785490.21870522170.222-0.00329477830.28442758370.289-0.0045724163

Geothermal Flash337083%00.01890039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.036-0.036000.051-0.05100.063-0.063

Natural Gas103354%0.72830.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03606914690.04677987570.0440.00277987570.04820970940.05298705440.050.00298705440.0583388950.0540.004338895

Coal219454%0.01833333330.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.23499170211.13869152540.0481.09069152541.25933135471.66241184850.061.60241184852.11396445030.072.0439644503

CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208

CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266

CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224



Hydro256254%0.48333333330.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.00789603210.04792380130.0270.02092380130.0532673270.07112105740.040.03112105740.09112177320.0510.0401217732

Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128

Onshore Wind178383%0.17733333330.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01796211760.08293909680.0370.04593909680.09161322890.12059514550.0530.06759514550.15306225820.0660.0870622582

Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498

Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115

PV466983%0.22933333330.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01095093980.14252044510.144-0.00147955490.16008437750.21876879880.222-0.00323120120.28451026620.289-0.0044897338


Natural Gas103354%0.66426666670.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.036265570.04800878120.0440.00400878120.04957644670.05481431350.050.00481431350.06068205570.0540.0066820557

Coal219454%0.0020.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%1.963924869410.24783991580.04810.199839915811.353705017815.04860954490.0614.988609544919.18784172790.0719.1178417279

CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208

CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266

CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224



Hydro256254%0.21350.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01446307040.10508019030.0270.07808019030.1171771650.1575954460.040.1175954460.20287419370.0510.1518741937

Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128

Onshore Wind178383%0.16860.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.0186957030.08703843320.0370.05003843320.09616187780.12664503240.0530.07364503240.16079391330.0660.0947939133

Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498

Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115

PV466983%0.22930.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01095253170.14254116330.144-0.00145883670.1601076490.21880060120.222-0.00319939880.28455162540.289-0.0044483746


Natural Gas103354%0.89640.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03568703130.04438919970.0440.00038919970.04555089970.04943235930.05-0.00056764070.05378058050.054-0.0002194195

Coal219454%0.24580.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03907599280.10647969530.0480.05847969530.1154777840.14554210080.060.08554210080.17922177680.070.1092217768

CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208

CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266

CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224

Chart1

hydro

wind

nuclear

Solar PV

Natural gas

coal

Capacity


0.0906590916

0.151098486

0.1236287812

0.151098486

0.302196972

0.1813181832

Information

All of the sustainability infromation is calculated in the Data sheet. The capacity factor was not taken into account on the par graphs on the right. This is due to the provided portfolios being reliable, which was the purpose of capacity factor in the origional model.INPUTSOUTPUTS

The only input values are the power output and capacity for each technology in sheets Portfolio 1-3The sustainability factors and graphs found in the Data and Contribution Charts sheets.

The Contribution Charts sheet contains the pie graphs for each chart, showing how each technology contributes to the installed capacity and the total energy output.

Sheets Portfolio 1-3 calculate the sustainability factors for each input Portfolio. The installed capacity and energy output are the only inputs. This will adjust the data in the Data sheet.

Preference Scenarios contains the same weights Klein and Whalley used for the sustainability factors. They are used to make the stacked graphs in the Data sheet.

LCOE - Portfolio 1-3 calculates the LCOE value for each portfolio using the capacity factors found in sheets Portfolio 1-3

Results

Life Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 1237.5468088014767.9074757414354269.39002751516.28046740470.00000554750.58370917040.44223504880.06478026280.08660176290.10541629950.0698068809

Portfolio 2310.7365903656749.1696617697373532.0196226421359.83500649130.00000712640.56729074140.55226415090.05374489250.06803123830.08034895120.0570357755

Portfolio 3215.64509466442118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000544340.70280137690.34016393440.07877704070.11081367270.13843571430.086156731

min215.6450946644749.1696617697354269.39002751359.83500649130.00000544340.56729074140.34016393440.05374489250.06803123830.08034895120.0570357755

max310.73659036562118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000712640.70280137690.55226415090.07877704070.11081367270.13843571430.086156731

Normalized Life Cycle GHGNormalized Air PollutionNormalized Land UseNormalized Water UseNormalized FatalitiesNormalized JobsNormalized CFNormalized 3% LCOENormalized 7% LCOENormalized 10% LCOENormalized 4% LCOE

Portfolio 10.76967746720.986314405110.27563370160.93814479870.12115970810.51875997090.55915208860.56593109050.56844990170.5614462127

Portfolio 2010.952520579910001111

Portfolio 310001110000

Equal WeightLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.10005807070.12822087270.130.03583238120.12195882380.01575076210.06743879620.07268977150.07357104180.07389848720.0729880077

Portfolio 200.130.12382767540.130000.130.130.130.13

Portfolio 30.130000.130.130.130000

AvailabilityLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.46688397380.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621

Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01

Portfolio 30.010000.010.010.90000

Climate ChangeLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.69270972050.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.00518759970.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621

Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01

Portfolio 30.90000.010.010.010000

Climate Change-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.34635486020.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.00242319420.01037519940.25161843990.25466899070.25580245580.2526507957

Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.450.450.450.45

Portfolio 30.450000.020.020.020000

EconomicLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.00121159710.00518759970.50323687970.50933798140.51160491150.5053015914

Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.90.90.90.9

Portfolio 30.010000.010.010.010000

EnvironmentalLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.17702581750.22685231320.230.06339575140.0281443440.00363479120.01556279910.01677456270.01697793270.01705349710.0168433864

Portfolio 200.230.21907973340.230000.030.030.030.03

Portfolio 30.230000.030.030.030000

JobsLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.00769677470.00986314410.010.0027563370.0093814480.10904373730.00518759970.00559152090.00565931090.0056844990.0056144621

Portfolio 200.010.00952520580.010000.010.010.010.01

Portfolio 30.010000.010.90.010000

Jobs-climate change-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.23090324020.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.03634791240.01037519940.16774562660.16977932710.17053497050.1684338638

Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.30.30.30.3

Portfolio 30.30000.020.30.020000

Jobs-economyLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.01539354930.01972628810.020.0055126740.0187628960.05452186870.01037519940.25161843990.25466899070.25580245580.2526507957

Portfolio 200.020.01905041160.020000.450.450.450.45

Portfolio 30.020000.020.450.020000

Socio-economicLife Cycle GHG (gCO2eq/kWh)Air pollution emissions (mg/kWh)Land use (m^2/MWh) - max life cycleWater Cosumption (L/MWh)Fatalities/GWhJobs (FTE/GWh)CFLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 3% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 7% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 10% discount rateLCOE ($2011/kWh) - 4% discount rate

Portfolio 10.0230903240.22685231320.030.0082690110.21577330370.02786673290.01556279910.12860498040.13016415080.13074347740.1291326289

Portfolio 200.230.02857561740.030000.230.230.230.23

Portfolio 30.030000.230.230.030000

Results





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Availability

Contribution Charts





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Equal Weight

Portfolio 1





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Climate Change

Portfolio 2





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Climate change-economy

Portfolio 3





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Economic






Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Environmental

LCOE - Portfolio 1





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Jobs

LCOE-Portfolio 2





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Jobs-climate change-economy

LCOE - Portfolio 3





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Jobs-economy





Fatalities/GWh

Jobs (FTE/GWh)


Socio-economic

Energy ContributionPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Percentage of Installed CapaciyPortfolio 1Portfolio 2Portfolio 3Capacity

% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contribution% Contributionhydro0.0906590916

geothermal binary0%0%0%geothermal binary0%0%0%wind0.151098486

hydro8%10%15%hydro9%11%23%nuclear0.1236287812

offshore wind0%0%0%offshore wind0%0%0%Solar PV0.151098486

onshore wind6%4%12%onshore wind15%11%23%Natural gas0.302196972

nuclear28%14%19%nuclear12%8%6%coal0.1813181832

biopower0%0%0%biopower0%0%0%

PV8%5%16%PV15%11%23%Energy

Geothermal flash0%0%0%Geothermal flash0%0%0%hydro0.0763290966

Natural gas50%68%31%Natural gas30%57%12%wind0.0605439388

coal1%0%8%coal18%2%12%nuclear0.2795544622

CSP-MB0%0%0%CSP-MB0%0%0%Solar PV0.0783791171

CSP-TES0%0%0%CSP-TES0%0%0%Natural gas0.4976766434

CSP-FF0%0%0%CSP-FF0%0%0%coal0.0075167418







Portfolio 2 - Energy Contribution


Capacity


Energy




hydro111730008%9%70.5343036764554.198100314325.012957682.6268140.8177450064491342.79397293970.00000580.00000044270.960.07327593280.450.870.37233333330.06140591930.00468705830.06834245670.0052165180.09151874050.00698554280.1174820690.0089673002

offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000

onshore wind88650006%15%110.6659833265965.81221812221.169379.210483.09207941740.260.01574142410.000000520.00000003150.330.01997949980.240.410.17720.08299864470.00502506490.09167930360.00555062610.12068302750.00730662580.15317456990.0092737918

nuclear4091409128%12%123.354653546521259.26554598880.1329039.43590.10562992962725761.78590952580.000000920.00000025720.470.13139059720.850.910.04314099440.01206025750.04663562090.01303719590.05831182920.01630133210.07139215020.0199579941

biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000

PV114750008%15%483.76219762279362.15463987970.8138316.245789.525852951231.80271969390.000000130.00000001021.470.11521730220.180.220.22940.14247902670.01116738030.16003785490.01254362580.21870522170.01714192220.28442758370.0222931829


Natural gas72831000050%30%449223.4568129015988491.70452371190.3132587.29847.7531655133795395.65293152930.00000940.00000467820.480.23888478880.40.850.72830.04677987570.02328125150.04820970940.02399284640.05298705440.02637041940.0583388950.0290339055

coal11060001%18%7685.772857728619260144.77244772451.48311155.256418.0955546825189314.22919229190.0000170.00000012780.660.00496104960.80.850.01833333331.13869152540.00855925021.25933135470.00946606871.66241184850.01249592072.11396445030.015890125

CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000

CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000

CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000

total1463433091100%100%237.5468088014767.9074757414354269.39002751516.28046740470.00000554750.58370917040.44223504880.06478026280.06980688090.08660176290.1054162995

Use 4% discount rate

Do sensitivity on this-see how it changes

Show 4% in graphs

competetive level is 5 cents



hydro1450300010%11%70.6935428767555.449265459525.012957682.6334831.992452834491444.95729415780.00000580.00000057460.960.09511445170.450.870.48333333330.04792380130.0047481730.0532673270.00527759650.07112105740.00704650040.09112177320.0090281224

offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000

onshore wind53230003.6%11%110.3998633413963.48971643321.169379.27854.24905660380.260.00945131530.000000520.00000001890.330.01199590020.240.410.17733333330.08293909680.00301493680.09161322890.0033302520.12059514550.00438377980.15306225820.0055639987

nuclear2000200014%8%121.639904338921228.97164332080.1329039.42191.65283018872725372.39494362830.000000920.00000012570.470.06422958660.850.910.04314099440.0058955920.04663562090.00637316310.05831182920.00796881850.07139215020.0097563581

biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000

PV68830005%11%482.256508370379337.27939870170.8138316.244337.6875471698231.08124359410.000000130.00000000611.470.06910556880.180.220.22933333330.14252044510.00669997040.16008437750.00752566120.21876879880.01028445050.28451026620.0133749958


Natural gas99641500068%57%449305.6942944995988672.66361462250.3132587.218445.5849056604795541.2627263410.00000940.00000639980.480.32680013670.40.850.66426666670.04800878120.03268599220.04957644670.03375331160.05481431350.03731942740.06068205570.0413143835

coal15000%2%7680.0524769388192601.3160232321.48311155.25870.852830188718930.12934745470.0000170.00000000120.660.00004509740.80.850.00210.24783991580.000700228211.35370501780.000775791315.04860954490.001028261719.18784172790.0013110927

CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000

CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000

CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000

total1463526500100%100%310.7365903656749.1696617697373532.0196226421359.83500649130.00000712640.56729074140.55226415090.05374489250.05703577550.06803123830.0803489512



hydro21351000015%23%71.0289156627558.084337349425.012957682.6692665.7142857144491660.12289156630.00000580.00000085250.960.14110843370.450.870.21350.10508019030.01544552190.1171771650.01722363150.1575954460.02316463180.20287419370.0298200622

offshore wind000%0%1109600.00827586.8061200.1400.000001700.6200.270.43000000000

onshore wind16861000012%23%111.27683304659611.14327022381.169379.216248.0562060890.260.03017969020.000000520.00000006040.330.03830499140.240.410.16860.08703843320.01010304980.09616187780.01116206030.12664503240.01470041480.16079391330.0186642711

nuclear2700270019%6%122.23063683321239.40791738380.1329039.41836.21498829042725506.54044750430.000000920.0000001710.470.08736660930.850.910.04314099440.00801932430.04663562090.00866892780.05831182920.01083937620.07139215020.01327083

biopower000%0%3501099016.343607087.68055300.00000202.0600.840.84000000000

PV22931000016%23%487.577555938793125.18753872630.8138316.248973.3583138173233.63091222030.000000130.00000002051.470.23206265060.180.220.22930.14254116330.02250236750.1601076490.02527551390.21880060120.03454112070.28455162540.0449209554


Natural gas4482500031%12%449138.5485714286988304.86857142860.3132587.23815.831381733795245.31428571430.00000940.00000290060.480.14811428570.40.850.89640.04438919970.01369723880.04555089970.01405570620.04943235930.01525341370.05378058050.0165951506

coal122950008%12%76864.9825817556192601629.64130808951.48311155.236435.03512880561893160.17191049910.0000170.00000143840.660.05584440620.80.850.24580.10647969530.00900953840.1154777840.00977089130.14554210080.01231471540.17922177680.015164445

CSP-MB000%0%35016500.62407340685000.0000006802.1400.250.33000000000

CSP-TES000%0%72016500.4638684.160691000.000000402.3100.320.5000000000

CSP-FF000%0%235016500.3434847.280696000.000000402.0200.390.5000000000

total1452542700100%100%215.64509466442118.3329432014759974.210304451575.81062719450.00000544340.70280137690.34016393440.07877704070.0861567310.11081367270.1384357143


GHGAir PollutionLandWaterFatalitiesJobsCF3% LCOE7% LCOE10% LCOE4% LCOE

Equal0.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.130.13Want land use in m^2/MW

Availability0.010.010.010.010.010.010.90.010.010.010.01land per installed capacity

Climate Change0.90.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01say that offshore wind is a different type of land, provided sensitivity

Climate Change-economy0.450.020.020.020.020.020.020.450.450.450.45review all factors for installed capacity, not kWh output

Economic0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.90.90.90.9Jobs could change, look into all of them

Environmental0.230.230.230.230.030.030.030.030.030.030.03Decide if they should change or not

Jobs0.010.010.010.010.010.90.010.010.010.010.01Water use would change, be dependent.

Jobs-climate change-economy0.30.020.020.020.020.30.020.30.30.30.3Defined portfolio

Jobs-economy0.020.020.020.020.020.450.020.450.450.450.45Which vary with capaciy, which vary with energy

Socio-economic0.030.230.030.030.230.230.030.230.230.230.23Land use fixed by capacity

Jobs heavily based by capacity/building

Water use and emmisions based on energy output

Am I looking at these portfolios over a lifetime or just one year?

just one year, not over an entire lifetime

Pick 3 or 4 interesting portfolios

Leave N at 30



Hydro256254%0.37233333330.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.0094450730.06140591930.0270.03440591930.06834245670.09151874050.040.05151874050.1174820690.0510.066482069

Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128

Onshore Wind178383%0.17720.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01797277380.08299864470.0370.04599864470.09167930360.12068302750.0530.06768302750.15317456990.0660.0871745699

Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498

Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115

PV466983%0.22940.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01094775730.14247902670.144-0.00152097330.16003785490.21870522170.222-0.00329477830.28442758370.289-0.0045724163


Natural Gas103354%0.72830.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03606914690.04677987570.0440.00277987570.04820970940.05298705440.050.00298705440.0583388950.0540.004338895

Coal219454%0.01833333330.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.23499170211.13869152540.0481.09069152541.25933135471.66241184850.061.60241184852.11396445030.072.0439644503

CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208

CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266

CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224



Hydro256254%0.48333333330.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.00789603210.04792380130.0270.02092380130.0532673270.07112105740.040.03112105740.09112177320.0510.0401217732

Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128

Onshore Wind178383%0.17733333330.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01796211760.08293909680.0370.04593909680.09161322890.12059514550.0530.06759514550.15306225820.0660.0870622582

Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498

Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115

PV466983%0.22933333330.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01095093980.14252044510.144-0.00147955490.16008437750.21876879880.222-0.00323120120.28451026620.289-0.0044897338


Natural Gas103354%0.66426666670.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.036265570.04800878120.0440.00400878120.04957644670.05481431350.050.00481431350.06068205570.0540.0066820557

Coal219454%0.0020.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%1.963924869410.24783991580.04810.199839915811.353705017815.04860954490.0614.988609544919.18784172790.0719.1178417279

CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208

CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266

CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224



Hydro256254%0.21350.006220.00270039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01446307040.10508019030.0270.07808019030.1171771650.1575954460.040.1175954460.20287419370.0510.1518741937

Offshore Wind320283%00.031560.01720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.078-0.078000.105-0.10500.128-0.128

Onshore Wind178383%0.16860.01220.00380039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.0186957030.08703843320.0370.05003843320.09616187780.12664503240.0530.07364503240.16079391330.0660.0947939133

Nuclear355559%10.018910.00140.00000051035039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01696312790.04314099440.048-0.00485900560.04663562090.05831182920.065-0.00668817080.07139215020.079-0.0076078498

Biopower42583%00.051110.00110.0000021343839%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.082-0.082000.1-0.100.115-0.115

PV466983%0.22930.0072200039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.01095253170.14254116330.144-0.00145883670.1601076490.21880060120.222-0.00319939880.28455162540.289-0.0044483746


Natural Gas103354%0.89640.035130.00280.0000047664539%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03568703130.04438919970.0440.00038919970.04555089970.04943235930.05-0.00056764070.05378058050.054-0.0002194195

Coal219454%0.24580.028340.00410.0000021913639%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%0.03907599280.10647969530.0480.05847969530.1154777840.14554210080.060.08554210080.17922177680.070.1092217768

CSP-MB4383.5883%082.190.02840039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.116-0.116000.165-0.16500.208-0.208

CSP-TES8787.3683%0123.70.02820039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.143-0.143000.209-0.20900.266-0.266

CSP-FF6488.0383%0206.60.04720039%8760300.030.040.070.15%6%8%11%000.133-0.133000.182-0.18200.224-0.224

27

Electricity Generated in Mexico 2050

Development Pathways for Mexico's Electrical Grid

Source: J. Veysey, C. Octaviano, “Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis,” Energy Econ.

Electricity Generated in Mexico MWh 2050



Zana Cranmer• Developing cohesive set of

models to understand the interactions of economic and environmental value of offshore wind development

• Facilitating decision making across multiple objectives, scales, and stakeholders

Advisor: Erin Baker

Repurposing models traditionally used in business applications for public benefit

• 9 fellows• Department of

Environmental Conservation

© birdnote.org © wcfn.org

© National Geographic

Environmental Issues of Offshore Wind Energy UMass IGERT

UMass IGERTEnvironmental Conservation

Understanding how power transmission cables may effect electro-sensitive fishes (sharks, rays)

Lemon Shark

Kate McClellan PressAdvisor: Andy Danylchuk

Analyzing behavioral responses of sharks and rays to electric fields in the lab and in their natural environment.

Ampullae of Lorenzini (pores)


Understanding and minimizing effects ofwind development on migratorysongbirds and breeding marine birds

Flight behavior – hazard exposureMigratory routes Colony attendance – Spatial Planning Tool

© T. Duclos © T. Duclos

Jen SmetzerAdvisor: David King


Roseate Tern & Piping Plover Tracking

100 piping plovers in MA and RI 60 Common and 60 Roseate terns in NY and MA

Pam LoringAdvisors: Paul Sievert

Curtice GriffinModeling bird movements across southern

New EnglandQuantifying exposure to Wind Energy AreasExamining environmental drivers

Developing a spatially-explicit, individual-based movement modelto simulate flight patterns and habitat utilization


Blake MasseyAdvisors: Curt Griffin

Kevin McGarigalUsing GPS telemetry data and GIS data layers toanalyze eagle habitat use and behavioral patterns


Minimizing effects of wind development onmigratory bats and rare WNS-affected batspecies in the Northeast

Zara DowlingAdvisors: Paul Sievert

Betsy Dumont

Fall migration of hoary and eastern red batsGreatest risk in NortheastKnow very little about their migratory routes or habits

Summer foraging and fall migration of northern long-eared batFederally threatened


Overcoming data deficiencies in environmental permitting ofoffshore wind energy in the United States

- Marine Spatial Planning- Habitat Modeling- Regulatory Acceptance

Kendra RyanAdvisor: Adrian Jordaan

First US offshore wind energy project, located in state waters managed by one of the first marine spatial plans in the US.

Habitat model of North Atlantic right whale presence in proximity to wind energy areas.

UMass IGERT

• 4 fellows• 4 departments

Politics & Human Dimensions of Offshore Wind Energy

UMass IGERTPolicy

Understanding how people conceptualize offshore windprojects

Studying how we can best communicate project information tocommunities

Rebecca SokoloskiAdvisor: Ezra Markowitz

UMass IGERTPolicy

Developing public-private partnerships to address cumulativeadverse effects

- Environmental uncertainty- Proprietary data- Regulatory uncertainty

Wing GoodaleAdvisor: Anita Milman

UMass IGERTPolicy

• Politics of energy transitions: does the adoption of renewable energy result in a more democratic energy regime?

Small household turbine on Samsoisland

Collective-built Tvind turbine

Robert Darrow

• Investigating how Denmark has transitioned from an electric system almost entirely reliant on fossil fuels to the world's leading renewable energy producer per capita in less than 40 years

Advisor: Jane Fountain


UMass IGERT

UMass IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering,

Environmental Science, and Policy Program

Jen Smetzer & Zana Cranmer

Jen Smetzer & Acadia Engineer in Nova Scotia

Pam Loring & UMass Antenna Engineer

Zara Dowling & Dan Carlson

Blake Massey & Willian La Cava

Walt Jaslenek & Carson Pete

Zana Cranmer & School of Public Policy

Interdisciplinary Collaborations

Engineering Environmental ConservationPolicy

IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering, Environmental Science,

and Policy

Our goal is to create a community of researchers who understand the technological challenges, environmental implications, socioeconomic, and regulatory hurdles of offshore wind farms.

Thank you!

The Future of Wind Energy: Work From The UMass IGERTExpert elicitation survey on future wind energy costsExpert ElicitationSummary of key resultsSummary of key resultsSummary of key resultsSummary of key resultsSlide Number 9Significant uncertainty around cost reductions for floating offshoreHistorical and forecast experience curves for onshore wind Forecast experience curves for offshore windSlide Number 14ConclusionsSlide Number 16A diverse group of PhD students interested in Wind EnergyIGERT Fellows, Associates, and Alumni �2015-2016Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Development Pathways for Mexico's Electrical GridSlide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering, Environmental Science, and Policy

Documents

The Future of Wind Energy: Work From The UMass IGERThome.engineering.iastate.edu/~jdm/wesep594/Erin... · The Future of Wind Energy: Work From The UMass IGERT Presented by Erin Baker