1 © Nokia 2016 Bell Labs Consulting

The Future X Network:

Digital fabric of the future

Marios Nicolaou

Senior Director, Bell Labs Consulting

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The Future after the Future

3 © Nokia 2016

• Networks are at the heart of all technology revolutions

• Today’s networks not designed to meet the needs of the new technology revolution

- Connecting people vs. Understanding everything to enable remote control and automation

• Challenge to fill the gap is further compounded by three barriers

- Physics (latency limited by speed of light barrier for signal propagation)

- Mathematics (channel capacity limited by Shannon limit)

- Economics (monetization from consumer segment limited by consumer wallet)

100X more capacity; 100X lower latency; new value creation enablers

Central Thesis – A once-in-100-years inflection point in network design

Radically new architecture is inevitable for the FutureX network

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How do we prepare for the new technology revolution – lessons from the

past

We need to re-think the role of our networks (public and private) for the new era

Technology RevolutionEnabling Technology

InnovationsNetwork

Agricultural & Financial (1600 − 1740) Stocks & Bonds Banking & Stock Market Infrastructure

1st Industrial (1780 − 1840) Steam Engine & Iron Production Rail and Shipping Networks

2nd Industrial (1880 − 1920) Steel & ChemicalsExtended Transportation Networks

Electricity & Telecom Networks

Scientific-Technical (1940 − 1970) Analog & digital signal processing Digital Communications networks

Information (1985 − 2015)The Web, Cloud computing & Mobile

devicesInternet & Broadband Access

Automation of Everything (2015 −) Digital interfaces & Data analysis Cloud Integrated Network

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2 Emergence of the Enterprise

1 Rise of the Machine

3 Move to the Edge Cloud

4

Confluence of Networks5

Evolution to Cognitive Operations

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Rise of the Machine is inevitable to defy Malthusian prophesies again

From Mechanical Advantage to Cognitive Advantage

76x

1800s

Devic

es

Per

Hum

an

GrowthFuture

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

OperateCreate

Create

Create

Operate

Present

Create

Operate

Past

1

ToolsSmarter Tools

Ever Smarter Autonomous Tools

Bell Labs Innovation: DeepX

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Emergence of Enterprise as the new growth engine

Discover

(Information)

Sell

(Media)

Share

(Personal)

Share

(Media)

Automate

(Everything)

Enterprises

& Verticals

Consumers

2

Bell Labs Innovation: OneApp

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FutureX Network – Latency matters

Laws of Physics the need for a more distributed cloud

10

0.1 1 10 100

10

100

1000

10000

(km)

RTT

(ms)

Light propagation time

Electric grid control

Autonomous vehicles

vRAN

Haptic VR & tele-operation

Cloud-assisted driving

BW-efficient 360° video

Hi-Res cloud gaming

4K video streaming

VoIP/video conferencing

Web page load

Vestibulo-ocular reflex

IM chat & bots

High-Frequency trading

Sprint start

0.25

1

2

4

8

7

5 20

10 100

10 40

20 90

120

50 1900

100

150

150

50

1000

4000

ICP

clo

ud

Core

clo

ud

Edge

clo

ud

Service latency requirements (in ms)

Max tolerable networking delay

Max application delay for processing

Human response times (for reference)

3

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New applications and demands – stretching bandwidth and latency

envelops

Edge CloudCore Cloud

1ms10ms100ms1s10s 100us 10us

1kbps

10kbps

100kbps

1Mbps

10Mbps

100Mbps

1Gbps

10Gbps Cloud RAN

360° VR (hi-res)

Electric grid control

Cloud-assisted driving

Autonomous vehicles

Chatbots

4k Video streaming

Sensors

Home Sensors

Haptic VR

Remotetraining

360° video (free viewpoint)

Remote control vehicles

SD Video streaming

360° video (lo-res)

Bandw

idth

Latency

Video VR/AR

Things System Control

Virtual RAN

3

Bell Labs Innovation: Edge

Analytics

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Cognitive Operations – only way to manage complexity

Smart Digital Network Fabric = Predictive and Proactive Operations

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

0x

2000x

4000x

6000x

8000x

10000x

12000x

14000x

16000x

Increasing levels of

network intelligence

required to support

growth in network

capacity with stability

Rise in network

transaction complexity

required to deliver

dynamic services at

massive scale

Source: Bell Labs Consulting

Processing

Capacity

4

Processing

Demand

Microservices

B

10X

Physical Network

Virtual Network 1

Virtual Network n

…

Network

Slices

A

5X

Transactional complexity

growth factors

A B C D= f ( , , ,

)

Connected Devices

Digital Services

Social Networks

SecuritySafeguards

Context Attributes

Device Apps

Contextual Interaction

C

70X

Traffic Peak to

Average

D

4X

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

0

20

40

60Moore’s Law

E

40X

= f ( , )E F

Control capacity

scaling & optimization

F

10X 5X

Bell Labs Innovation: Network Unix

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Confluence of Networks – A techno-economic inevitability

Network Confluence – fixed and wireless; IP and Optical; consumer and enterprise; …

Example – Converged Distributed Access Network

5

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Confluence of Networks – A techno-economic inevitability

Cost + Performance + Agility Confluence of Networks (& Cloud)

5

Aided by Virtualization and

Software Defined Networking

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Mobile Network

Operator

Consolidation /

Convergence

O2 Telefónica

(Germany)

E-Plus

VF (Germany) KDG

VF (Spain) Ono

EE (UK) BT

3 (UK) O2 UK

Orange (Spain) Jazztel

Liberty Global Base

Charter Time Warner

Altice Suddenlink

Altice Cablevision

T-Mobile ?

Recent M&A Activity

Future X Network: Convergence and Consolidation Drives Economies of

Scale5

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Aggr./Metro

C0

OLT/

Router

Copper <50Km (10-20Mbps)

SC

ADSLF1

DPU

Copper Fiber

FTTc

G.Fast,

XG.Fast

Copper

Res & MDUs

PON Fiber

FTTxVDSL, Vplus

Selection of Technologies is Driven By Economics

b)

a)

5G

LTE

Macro

5G

Fiber

Fiber

F2

F3

F4

W1

W2

Small

Cells (out/

indoor)

Macro

10

GB

PS

Hybrid-Access network vision for the 2020 Telco

5G

LTE 400m<1Km (20-300Mbps)

50m<250Km (0.5-10Gbps)

1>10bps>

5

15 © Nokia 2016

Comparing maximum cable, fiber, copper data speeds

(downstream) and cost

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

0

2

4

6

8

10

Maxim

um

bandw

idth

(G

bp

s)

Copper FiberCable

20 Mbps 50 Mbps 150 Mbps

1 Gbps

10 Gbps

1.372 Gbps

9 Gbps 10 Gbps 10 Gbps 11Gbps

Cost/Mbps

Cost/Mbps

5

16 © Nokia 2016

SDN controller

Net OS

Edge Cloud

Fiber

Wireless

Future PON

Universal

Remote

(X)G.fast

XG-CABLE

…

Universal

Remote

OLT

Metro

TORvANC

vANC

vCPE

vCPE

vCPEvCPE

TORvBNG

vBNG

vCDN

vCDN

vRANvRAN

TOR

LT

LT

LT

LT

LTLT

Future Remote located at the edgeDeploy deep fiber DAA architectures1

Virtualize access functions3

Move to edge clouds4

Automate operations6

Deploy wireline and wireless on a

common platform5

12

3Transform to all IP services2

45

6

DAA platform is consistent with Future X vision and Bell Labs’ Future Remote

Evolution to future converged access architecture 5

Bell Labs Innovation: Future Remote

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Future X : The Value Vectors for the Winning Architecture

CONTENT

CONTROL

EDGE

CLOUD

CONVERGED

CONNECTIVITY

NATIONAL CLOUD GLOBAL CLOUD

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