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Berg Insight’s M2M Research SeriesWhat are the key business opportunities in the emerging wireless M2M/IoT market? Berg Insight’s M2M Research Series is a unique series of 35 market reports published on a regular basis. Each title offers detailed analysis of a specific vertical application area such as smart metering, fleet management or vehicle telematics. Once per year we also publish summaries of our research with detailed forecasts for the Global and European wireless M2M markets, respectively.

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The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market analyses the latest trends and developments in cellular IoT and low power wireless networking.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 170 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base your business decisions.

Highlights from this report: 360-degree overview of the cellular IoT communication

ecosystem.

Update on the adoption of NB-IoT and LPWA standards for M2M/IoT networking.

Reviews of the IoT strategies of leading mobile operators.

Summary of industry trends in all world regions.

Statistical data on cellular IoT subscribers in all world regions.

Extensive global and regional market forecasts lasting until 2022.

The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market

M2M Research Series

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Cellular IoT subscribers (World 2016-2022)

The global number of cellular IoT subscribers reached 648 million at the end of 2017Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increased by 56 percent during 2017 to reach 647.5 million at the end of the year – corresponding to around 8 percent of all mobile subscribers. Until 2022, the number of cellular IoT subscribers is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.1 percent to reach 2,700.1 million at the end of the period. During the same period, cellular IoT network revenues are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.3 percent from € 6.3 billion in 2017 to approximately € 21.2 billion in 2022. Meanwhile the monthly ARPU is expected to drop to € 0.65.

The global cellular IoT market is going through a massive change, driven by the Chinese government’s policies for accelerating adoption. China has set the ambitious goal of reaching 600 million NB-IoT connections in 2020, three years after the launch of the first commercial networks. Berg Insight believes that the target must be seen as realistic in light of the 150 million net additions and almost 100 percent yearly growth rate in 2017, the year before low-cost NB-IoT devices were even available. China has embarked on one of the world’s largest digital infrastructure projects that will result in billions of new connected devices in the coming five years. The massive effort will be a catalyst for reducing the price of cellular IoT chipsets and modules below US$ 2 and driving the global transition from 2G to 4G networks. China’s choice of NB-IoT as the country’s preferred LPWA technology will elevate the emerging standard to global dominance. It will also change the structure of the global cellular IoT subscriber base.

The next wave of cellular IoT adoption is focused on new vertical segments like smart cities and infrastructure, smart industrial supply chains and connected consumer products. Berg Insight believes the new wave will start in China, where government authorities and manufacturing companies will be first in the world to deploy connected devices using NB-IoT technology on a massive scale. Berg Insight does not expect to see similar levels of adoption in any other world region in the coming five years. Most new connected consumer products will launch first in China and get exported if successful. Berg Insight finds it likely that embedded cellular IoT connectivity will become a standard feature in mass-market whitegoods and similar high-volume consumer goods.

China Mobile is the world’s largest provider of cellular IoT connectivity. At the end of Q2-2017, the operator reported 150 million IoT subscribers and a year-on-year growth rate of 87 percent. Vodafone ranked second with 59 million IoT subscribers and a yearly growth rate of 43 percent. China Unicom captured the third spot with 50 million, surpassing AT&T at close to 36 million. China Telecom grew at an exceptional 250 percent year-on-year to reach 28 million cellular IoT subscribers in the period. Deutsche Telecom, Softbank/Sprint, Verizon and Telefónica currently have in the range of 15–20 million cellular IoT subscribers, which are growing at yearly rates of 15–30 percent. Telenor was the last player in the top ten with approximately 12 million cellular IoT subscribers. With an aggregate base of 407 million connections in mid-2017, the top ten mobile operators had a combined global market share of 76 percent. IoT is starting to make a substantial contribution to the revenues of the world’s mobile operators. Top international players such as AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone generate in the order of € 1 billion in sales from IoT. Overall, the share of mobile operator revenues from IoT is in the range of 1 percent. This is consistent with IoT’s share of total mobile data traffic reported by telecom regulators in Scandinavia.

Cellular IoT communication providers are at the forefront of adopting next generation network technology. Global IoT connectivity platforms aggregate cellular and non-cellular networks in every part of the world on a shared core network infrastructure. Some players have even developed complete mobile core networks based on virtualized network infrastructure and operated as a service on commercial clouds. From a technical perspective, network aggregation has intrinsic advantages in terms of coverage and flexibility. Any provider of international IoT connectivity must rely on external radio networks. Being tied to a single radio network in the domestic market can sometimes be a disadvantage. The main competitive advantages of traditional telecom operators in IoT are not technical but commercial. In the end, any technical platform will only be as good as the underlying commercial relationships between the connectivity provider and the radio network operators.

How will the global cellular IoT market evolve over the next five years?

How will Chinese government policies shape the global IoT market?

Which are the main market trends in Europe and North America?

What is the status of cellular IoT in emerging markets?

What are the leading global mobile operators’ strategies for the IoT market?

How much revenues did leading telecom groups generate from IoT in 2017?

When will NB-IoT replace GPRS in mass-market applications?

What is the outlook for emerging low power wireless networking technologies?

M2M Research Series

1 Wide area networks for the Internet of Things 1.1 3GPP family of cellular technologies 1.1.1 3GPP Release 13 – Introducing LTE-M and

NB-IoT 1.1.2 3GPP Release 14 – IoT enhancements and

V2X 1.1.3 3GPP Release 15 – The first 5G

specifications 1.1.4 Network footprint 1.2 LPWA and satellite

technologies 1.2.1 LoRa 1.2.2 Sigfox 1.2.3 Satellite networks 1.3 IoT networking platforms 1.3.1 IoT connectivity management platforms 1.3.2 SIM solutions and embedded UICC 1.4 International coverage and alliances 1.4.1 Roaming and international coverage 1.4.2 Mobile operator alliances

2 Europe 2.1 Regional market trends 2.1.1 Western Europe 2.1.2 Regional market trends in Western Europe 2.1.3 Central Eastern Europe 2.1.4 Russia & CIS 2.2 Mobile operators 2.2.1 Vodafone 2.2.2 Deutsche Telekom 2.2.3 Telefónica 2.2.4 Orange 2.2.5 Telenor 2.2.6 3 Group Europe 2.2.7 A1 Telekom Austria 2.2.8 Bouygues Telecom 2.2.9 BT Group 2.2.10 JT Group 2.2.11 KPN 2.2.12 Megafon 2.2.13 MTS 2.2.14 POST Luxembourg 2.2.15 Proximus 2.2.16 SFR 2.2.17 Telecom Italia 2.2.18 Telia Company 2.2.19 Tele2 2.2.20 UtilityConnect 2.3 IoT managed service providers 2.3.1 Arkessa 2.3.2 Com4 2.3.3 Cubic Telecom 2.3.4 EMnify

2.3.5 Eseye 2.3.6 Sierra Wireless 2.3.7 Stream Technologies 2.3.8 Telit 2.3.9 Wireless Logic 2.3.10 Others 2.4 LPWA networks 2.4.1 LoRa networks 2.4.2 Sigfox and network partners

3 The Americas 3.1 Regional market trends 3.1.1 United States and Canada 3.1.2 Brazil 3.1.3 Rest of Latin America 3.2 Mobile operators 3.2.1 AT&T 3.2.2 Verizon 3.2.3 Sprint 3.2.4 T-Mobile USA 3.2.5 Rogers Communications 3.2.6 Bell Canada 3.2.7 América Móvil 3.2.8 Vivo and Telefónica Latin America 3.2.9 Other mobile operators in Latin America 3.3 IoT managed service providers 3.3.1 Aeris Communications 3.3.2 KORE Wireless 3.3.3 Numerex 3.4 Satellite networks 3.4.1 Orbcomm 3.4.2 Inmarsat 3.4.3 Iridium 3.4.4 Globalstar 3.5 LPWA networks 3.5.1 LoRa networks 3.5.2 Sigfox and network partners

4 Asia-Pacific 4.1 Regional market trends 4.1.1 China 4.1.2 Japan and South Korea 4.1.3 Australia and New Zealand 4.1.4 Southeast Asia 4.1.5 India and South Asia 4.2 Mobile operators 4.2.1 China Mobile 4.2.2 China Unicom 4.2.3 China Telecom 4.2.4 Softbank 4.2.5 NTT Docomo 4.2.6 KDDI 4.2.7 SK Telecom 4.2.8 KT

4.2.9 Singtel 4.2.10 Telstra 4.3 IoT managed service providers 4.3.1 Soracom 4.3.2 Unlimit 4.4 LPWA networks

5 Middle East & Africa 5.1 Regional market trends 5.1.1 Middle East 5.1.2 Africa 5.2 Mobile operators 5.2.1 Etisalat 5.2.2 FastNet 5.2.3 Ooredoo 5.2.4 MTN 5.2.5 Turkcell 5.2.6 Vodacom 5.2.7 Zain 5.3 LPWA networks

6 Market forecasts and trends 6.1 Geographic markets 6.1.1 Global market summary 6.1.2 Europe 6.1.3 North America 6.1.4 Latin America 6.1.5 Asia-Pacific 6.1.6 Middle East & Africa 6.2 Vertical markets 6.2.1 Connected cars reach an inflection point 6.2.2 Steady growth in the fleet management

industry 6.2.3 Governments and utilities leverage IoT to

address critical challenges 6.2.4 Industry 4.0 gains momentum 6.2.5 Redefining consumer experiences through

connectivity 6.3 Technology trends 6.3.1 China’s economic planning will make 2G

obsolete by 2020 6.3.2 Global sunset for 2G/3G networks ahead 6.3.3 Network virtualisation decouples cellular

IoT from physical infrastructure 6.4 Industry trends 6.4.1 China Mobile first to reach 100 million

cellular IoT subscribers 6.4.2 IoT accounts for less than 1 percent of

mobile operator revenues 6.4.3 IoT managed service providers focus on

high-end segments and platforms

Executive Summary

Glossary

Table of Contents

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Choose type of format

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The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market is the foremost source of information about cellular IoT and low power wireless networking in all regions and major M2M/IoT vertical markets. Whether you are a chipset or module vendor, software vendor, utility, vehicle manufacturer, telecom operator, investor, consultant, or government agency, you will gain valuable insights from our in-depth research.

IoT Platforms and Software

Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems

Smart Homes and Home Automation

The 300 Largest Cellular IoT Projects Worldwide

Tobias Ryberg is co-founder and principal analyst responsible for the IoT research series. He is an experienced analyst and author of numerous articles and reports about IT and telecom for leading Swedish and international publishers. All major vertical market segments for Wireless M2M/IoT have been his major research area for the past 15 years.

Berg Insight offers premier business intelligence to the telecom industry. We produce concise reports providing key facts and strategic insights about pivotal developments in our focus areas. Berg Insight also offers detailed market forecast databases and advisory services. Our vision is to be the most valuable source of intelligence for our customers.

About the Author

See inside for further details

Berg Insight’s M2M Research SeriesWhat are the key business opportunities in the emerging wireless M2M/IoT market? Berg Insight’s M2M Research Series is a unique series of 35 market reports published on a regular basis. Each title offers detailed analysis of a specific vertical application area such as smart metering, fleet management or car telematics. Once per year we also publish summaries of our research with detailed forecasts for the Global and European wireless M2M markets respectively.

www.berginsight.com

Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems gives a comprehensive overview of the main wide area networking technologies for the Internet of Things – 2G/3G/4G/5G cellular, LoRa, Sigfox and 802.15.4 WAN.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 120 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base your business decisions.

Highlights from the report: 360-degree overview of the main IoT wide area networking

ecosystems.

Comparison of technologies and standards.

Updated profiles of the main suppliers of IoT chipsets and modules.

Cellular IoT module market data for 2017.

Early adoption trends for emerging LPWA technologies.

Cellular and non-cellular LPWA IoT device market forecast until 2023.

Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems

M2M Research Series

Order now!Please visit our web site to order this

report and find more information about our other titles at www.berginsight.com

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CellularNon-cellular LPWA

Annual shipments of cellular/non-cellular LPWA IoT devices (World 2017-2023)

NB-IoT set to lead the LPWA marketThe Internet of Things is weaving a new worldwide web of interconnected objects. By the end of 2018, approximately one billion devices will be connected to wide area networks based on cellular or LPWA technologies. The market is highly diverse and divided into multiple ecosystems. This report will focus on the four most prominent technology ecosystems for wide area IoT networking – the 3GPP ecosystem of cellular technologies, the emerging LPWA technologies LoRa and Sigfox and the 802.15.4 ecosystem.

The 3GPP family of cellular technologies support the biggest ecosystem in wide area IoT networking. Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increased by 56 percent during 2017 to reach 647.5 million at the end of the year – corresponding to around 8 percent of all mobile subscribers. Yearly shipments of cellular IoT devices increased by 82.2 percent in to 318.1 million units. Growth was fuelled by an exceptional market expansion in China, where the installed base of cellular IoT connections more than doubled.

The cellular IoT technology landscape is in a phase of rapid transformation. Developments in China accelerate a global shift from 2G/3G to 4G technologies. As the initial focus for 5G will be high-bandwidth applications, Berg Insight believes that 4G will become the preferred platform for industrial IoT in the foreseeable future. The move from 2G to 4G began in North America with 3G as an intermediate technology. The region has seen rapid uptake of LTE CAT-1 since 2017 and CAT-M starting in 2018 at the same time as GPRS and CDMA are fading away. Europe will begin to see adoption of LTE CAT-1 in 2018, followed by an accelerated uptake of LTE-M and NB-IoT in 2019. China is moving fast from GPRS to NB-IoT in the mass-market segment with deployments expected to exceed 100 million units by the end of 2018. At the same time there will also be fast-growing demand for LTE CAT-1 and LTE-M, as well as LTE CAT-3+. 2G and 3G will be in steady decline in all developed markets with demand shifting to developing countries with limited availability of 4G networks. Berg Insight expects that 5G will become commercially available for IoT applications such as automotive in 2020.

LoRa is gaining momentum as a global connectivity platform for IoT devices. According to Semtech, the global installed base of LoRa

devices was approximately 50 million at the beginning of 2018. The first major volume application segments are smart gas and water metering, where LoRa’s low power consumption matches the requirements for long-life battery operation. LoRa is also gaining traction for metropolitan area and local area IoT deployments as a platform for networking smart sensors in cities, buildings, manufacturing plants and similar. Semtech has stated that it generated in the range of US$ 42 million in revenues from LoRa chipsets in 2017 and expects to reach US$ 80–100 million in 2018. Berg Insight estimates that yearly shipments of LoRa devices were 17.1 million units in 2017. Until 2023, yearly shipments are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.6 percent to reach 89.1 million units.

Sigfox has very ambitious plans for establishing the technology bearing the company’s name as the leading global platform for ultra-narrow band IoT networks. In order to meet its strategic goals, Sigfox must be able to break into entirely new mass-volume device segments and prove its capability to create value by adding connectivity to things that never communicated before. At the end of 2017, Sigfox reported 2.5 million connected devices and issued a forecast to reach 6.0 million in 2018. In a positive scenario where early trials ramp up to large-scale commercial deployments, Berg Insight forecasts that shipments of Sigfox devices will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 94.3 percent from 1.2 million units in 2017 to 64.6 million units by 2023.

802.15.4 WAN is an established connectivity platform for private wide area wireless mesh networks used for applications such as smart metering. Faced with increasing competition from emerging LPWA standards, 802.15.4 WAN is however only expected to grow at moderate rate in the coming years. Berg Insight forecasts that shipments of 802.15.4 WAN devices will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2 percent from 16.2 million units in 2017 to 46.6 million units by 2023. Smart metering is expected to account for the bulk of demand. Wi-SUN is the leading industry standard for smart electricity metering networks in North America, with adoption also spreading to Asia-Pacific and Europe.

How will the IoT wide area networking technology market evolve over the next five years?

Who are the new challengers in the cellular IoT module market?

Which new mass-volume segments can be addressed by low-cost LPWA technologies?

Why are the new standards LTE-M and NB-IoT so significant for the cellular IoT ecosystem?

How are Chinese national policies driving the migration from 2G to 4G?

When will 5G appear in the cellular IoT market?

What is the current installed base of LoRa and Sigfox?

What are the prospects for emerging LPWA technology standards?

M2M Research Series

1 Wide area networks for the Internet of Things 1.1 Which things will be connected to

wide area networks? 1.1.1 Utility meters 1.1.2 Motor vehicles 1.1.3 Buildings 1.1.4 Low value assets – Industry 4.0 and

consumer products 1.1.5 Future opportunities in smart cities and

agriculture 1.2 What are the technology options? 1.2.1 Network architectures 1.2.2 Unlicensed and licensed frequency bands 1.3 Which are the leading technology

ecosystems?

2 3GPP ecosystem 2.1 Technology characteristics 2.1.1 3GPP Release 13 – Introducing LTE-M

and NB-IoT 2.1.2 3GPP Release 14 – IoT enhancements

and V2X 2.1.3 3GPP Releases 15 and 16 – 5G phase 1

and 2 2.1.4 Network footprint 2.1.5 2G mobile networks 2.1.6 3G/4G mobile networks 2.1.7 4G-MTC mobile networks (eMTC/LTE-M

and NB-IoT) 2.1.8 5G networks 2.2 Chipset vendors 2.2.1 Qualcomm 2.2.2 Mediatek 2.2.3 Unigroup Spreadtrum & RDA 2.2.4 Intel 2.2.5 HiSilicon 2.2.6 Sanechips Technology

2.2.7 Altair Semiconductors 2.2.8 Sequans Communications 2.2.9 Nordic Semiconductor 2.3 Module vendors 2.3.1 Sierra Wireless 2.3.2 Gemalto M2M 2.3.3 Telit 2.3.4 Quectel 2.3.5 Sunsea Telecommunications (SIMCom/

Longsung) 2.3.6 u-blox 2.3.7 Huawei 2.3.8 ZTE WeLink (Gosuncn) 2.3.9 Neoway 2.3.10 Fibcocom 2.3.11 Other cellular module vendors

3 LoRa ecosystem 3.1 Technology characteristics 3.2 Network footprint 3.2.1 Europe 3.2.2 Asia-Pacific 3.2.3 The Americas and Middle East & Africa 3.3 Chipset and module vendors 3.3.1 Semtech 3.3.2 LoRa module vendors

4 Sigfox ecosystem 4.1 Technology characteristics 4.2 Network footprint 4.2.1 Europe 4.2.2 The Americas 4.2.3 Asia-Pacific 4.2.4 Middle East & Africa 4.3 Chipset and module vendors 4.3.1 Chipset vendors 4.3.2 Sigfox module vendors

5 802.15.4 WAN ecosystem 5.1 Technology characteristics 5.1.1 IPv6 connectivity stacks based on

802.15.4 5.1.2 Wi-SUN 5.1.3 ZigBee 5.2 Network footprint 5.3 Chipsets and modules

6 Vertical market segments 6.1 Motor vehicles 6.1.1 OEM connected car applications 6.1.2 Aftermarket connected car applications 6.2 Energy & Infrastructure 6.2.1 Smart electricity metering 6.2.2 Smart gas and water metering 6.2.3 Smart cities 6.3 Industry & Transport 6.4 Other 6.4.1 Buildings & security 6.4.2 Consumer products 6.4.3 Payments

7 Market forecasts and trends 7.1 Market summary 7.2 3GPP family 7.2.1 Cellular IoT device market

forecast 7.2.2 Europe 7.2.3 Americas 7.2.4 Asia-Pacific 7.2.5 Middle East & Africa 7.3 LoRa 7.4 Sigfox 7.5 802.15.4 WAN

Glossary

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

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You can place your order in the following alternative ways:

1. Place your order online in our web shop at www.berginsight.com 2. Mail this order sheet to us at: Berg Insight AB, Viktoriagatan 3, 411 25 Gothenburg, Sweden3. Email your order to: info@berginsight.com 4. Phone us at +46 31 711 30 91

Your PO number Your VAT/TVA/IVA/BTW/MWST number

VAT is chargeable on all orders from Sweden. Orders from all other countries in the European Union must include the buyer’s VAT Registration number below in order to avoid the addition of VAT.

Reports will be dispatched once full payment has been received. For any enquiries regarding this, please contact us. Payment may be made by credit card, cheque made payable to Berg Insight AB, Viktoriagatan 3, 411 25 Gothenburg, Sweden or by direct bank transfer to Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, 106 40 Stockholm, Sweden.

Account Holder: Berg Insight ABAccount number: 5011 10 402 80BIC/SWIFT: ESSESESSIBAN: SE92 5000 0000 0501 1104 0280

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Paper copy ........................ 1200 EUR PDF 1-5 user license ........ 1800 EUR PDF corporate license ...... 3600 EUR

Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems is the foremost source of information about all the major wide area networking technologies for the Internet of Things. Whether you are a chipset or module vendor, software vendor, utility, vehicle manufacturer, telecom operator, investor, consultant, or government agency, you will gain valuable insights from our in-depth research.

IoT Platforms and Software

The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market

Smart Homes and Home Automation

mHealth and Home Monitoring

Tobias Ryberg is co-founder and principal analyst responsible for the M2M research series. He is an experienced analyst and author of numerous articles and reports about IT and telecom for leading Swedish and international publishers. All major vertical market segments for Wireless IoT have been his major research area for the past 14 years.

Berg Insight offers premier business intelligence to the telecom industry. We produce concise reports providing key facts and strategic insights about pivotal developments in our focus areas. Berg Insight also offers detailed market forecast databases and advisory services. Our vision is to be the most valuable source of intelligence for our customers.

About the Author