The Global Rail Market Now to 2016UNIFE Study Key Findings & Future Outlook

UNIFE press conference at InnotransBerlin, September 24, 2008

� After successful reception and feedback tothe first study, UNIFE decided to update andenlarge the scope of the study– The country scope was extended from

41 to 50 countries (>95% of the market)– Trends and their impact on the industry

Rationale behind the update of the rail market study

We have updated our first railmarket study (2006)

Trends and their impact on the industrywere investigated in more depth

– The forecast now includes a bottom-upvalidation to incorporate short-termproject demand into the model

� Overall methodology and the approach forlong-term forecasting have remainedunchanged as they have proven to deliververy good and stable results

2

Total rail supply market volumeexceeds EUR 120 bn

Key data Worldwide Rail Market Study

22

101231)

Rail control

Infrastructure

TOTAL MARKET

Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a.

3.0-3.5%

2.5-3.0%

2.0-2.5%

861) 2 5-3 0%

ACCESSIBLE MARKET2)

Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a.

37

53

Rolling stock

Services

2.0-2.5%

2.0-2.5%

17

10

31

27

Rail control

Infrastructure

Rolling stock

Services 3.5-4.0%

2.0-2.5%

2.5-3.0%3.0-3.5%2.5 3.0%

1) Figures are including market volume for project integration,Growth rates are 9-year average growth rates

2) ACCESSIBLE MARKET: Part of the market open to any external supplier3

Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.]

Expected growth per productcategory ranges from 2% to 4%

Infrastructure Rolling Stock Rail control Services

4

Above averagegrowth foreseen forelectrification in themainline segment

High growth ex-pected for (V)HStrains, intercitymultiple units andlight rail vehicles –slight decline indemand for coaches

Significant growthforeseen for ETCS(within and outsideof Europe) andCBTC systems

Solid, globaldevelopmentand increasingaccessibilityexpected, alsodue to increasingrolling stock base

2.5% – 3.0% 2.0% – 2.5% 3.0 – 3.5% 3.5% – 4.0%

Accessible market volume rail market [EUR m] – average 05-071)

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

CIS

Infra-structure

Rollingstock

Railcontrol

Services ∑

35

WesternEurope

2421Asia/

Pacific

20Other

REGIONS [%]

35% of the rail market volumeoriginates from Western Europe

6,307 10,718 4,641 7,651 29,317

0,986 1,615 0,587 1,709 4,897

0 639 2 500 0 421 2 004 5 564CIS

NAFTA

Rest of America

Asia/Pacific

Africa/Middle East

∑

24

NAFTAPacific

37

32Services

20Infra-structure

11

Rail Control

SEGMENTS [%]

1) Excluding market volume for project integration5

RollingStock

0,639 2,500 0,421 2,004 5,564

5,702 5,260 1,098 8,739 20,799

0,238 0,787 0,187 1,508 2,720

2,652 8,335 2,217 4,976 18,180

0,570 2,090 0,502 0,349 3,511

17,094 31,305 9,653 26,936 84,988

Common market segmentation isthe basis for further proceeding

Overall study methodology

MARKETSEGMENTATION

50 i

ANALYSIS of market volumes and installedbase in status quo� Research of installed base� Analysis of studies and UNIFE member data� Verification and comprising of data and elimination

of inconsistencies� 50 countriesin 7 regions

� 5 transportsegments

� >30 productsegments

of inconsistencies� Analysis of major industry trends

DEVELOPMENT of market model andFORECAST of market volumes� Review and selection of model drivers� Determination of factors and formulation of

forecasting equations� Model calibration to calculate market volumes� Project-based bottom-up validation

6

Growth rates accessible market product categories 2007-2016 [% p.a.]

0.5 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.6 0.32.8 3.5 2.2

6.73.3 2.4

5.8 4.41.7

4.6

All: 1.9 All: 2.1 All: 4.1 All: 4.5

The accessible rail market isexpected to grow around 2.9%

NAFTA Western Europe Eastern Europe CIS

5.0 5.9 3.56.6 6.2

-0.1

5.7 4.9 5.6 3.3 3.3 3.7 2.8 2.2 3.1 3.6

Infra ServRCRS Infra ServRCRS Infra ServRCRS Infra ServRCRS

All: 6.0

Infra ServRCRS

All: 2.7

Infra ServRCRS

All: 3.8

Infra ServRCRS

All: 2.9

Infra ServRCRS

Infra � Infrastructure RS � Rolling StockRC � Rail Control Serv � Services

7

Rest of America Africa/Middle East Asia/Pacific World

Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.]

� Asian very high speed countries areChina, Japan, South Korea andTaiwan – growth mainly originatesfrom first three

10.5

All: 3.8

Example: In Asia/Pacific the stronggrowth is expected to continue

Asia/Pacific

� Above average growth within themainline segment stems from– Superstructure and electrification– High speed and intercity trainsets– Electric locomotives

� The urban sector will continue itsstrong development due to thelasting need of urban transport

5.73.5 2.8

Veryhigh

speed

MetroLightrail

Main-line

8

Leasing &Financingfacilitates operators'demand andgenerates additionaldemand through inter-

ti li ti f

Urbanisation

results in additionaland lasting demand forpublic rail transport, esp.in emerging megacities

d t lit

Ecological awareness &energy consumption

favour rail as an environ-mentally friendly

transport mode

Selection of relevant major trends

Overall trends favor the industry'sdevelopment

nationalisation ofleasing companies

Shortage of engi-neering capacity

may become thebottleneck for growth

and metropolitan areas

ERTMS

opens Europeanmarkets and createsadditional demand fromimplementation outsideof Europe

Deregulationand liberalisationhigher competition forrail operationincreases demand fornew rolling stock

9Indicates impact on the industry