4 Global Harvest Initiative | 2016 GAP Report®

VULNERABLE HEALTHThe symbiosis among human, animal and biosphere health is creating new opportunities and challenges for food security, nutrition and disease prevention.

At least 75% of emerging and re-emerging human diseases are either vector-borne diseases, spread by ticks or mosquitos, or zoonotic diseases, caused by viruses, bacteria, parasites, and fungi in the environment and spread between animals and humans.3

Malnutrition and poor diets are now the largest risk factors responsible for the global burden of disease; 45% of deaths of children under age 5 are linked to malnutrition, and nearly 2 billion adults are overweight or obese.4

VOLATILE AGRICULTURAL BUSINESS CYCLESGlobal economic forces of supply and demand create volatile business cycles that pressure farmers and agribusiness from one season to the next.

Stagnating public investments for agricultural R&D and infrastructure create long-term challenges for productive agriculture value chains, raising costs for producers and consumers.

Outdated regulatory systems and lack of access to finance stifle innovation resulting in waste, inefficiency and greater greenhouse gas emissions.

Up to 50% of fresh, nutritious produce is wasted in the U.S.2

Barriers to trade in agriculture raise the cost of goods and services and exclude producers from market opportunity.

THE GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL IMPERATIVE

By 2050...

A rapidly expanding urban and middle-class population will demand more food for people, feed for animals, fiber for clothing and forest products for home and industrial use, as well as biofuels for energy.

Between 2010 and 2050, we will have to nearly double all agricultural output to meet this growing demand.1

Yet volatility in economic markets, environmental pressure and climate change, and the rise of conflicts in fragile regions pose threats.

The challenges are clear: how can we manage the storms, produce what we need through sustainable practices, ensure equitable access to food and foster good health and inclusive economic growth?

www.globalharvestinitiative.org 5

CHANGING CLIMATERising temperatures and

shifting weather patterns are impacting soil and water

resources for agriculture. Fragile drylands and tropical areas are

particularly vulnerable.

Today 4 billion people face annual water scarcity: nearly 2 billion of these

are in China and India.11

In 2015–2016, El Niño weather events caused severe droughts throughout Africa, Asia and the

Americas.12

Agriculture uses 82% of freshwater in Africa and 81% in Asia; this will rise to an average of 89% by 2050.13

Opening up new land for agriculture reduces biodiversity and releases carbon stored in soils. Poor land management contributes to land degradation, further reducing soil and water productivity.

RISING CONFLICT More than 65.3 million people, or 1 out of every 113 people on

earth — the largest number since World War II — are now either refugees or internally displaced due to conflict, poverty or

fragile rural environments.9

Conflict, migration and drought are becoming tightly interwoven in the Middle Eastern

region, with evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in

Syria.10 Prolonged conflicts continue in many countries throughout the region

and across Africa.

Unprecedented need for humanitarian assistance strains donor country development budgets, reducing available resources for agricultural development programs.

GROWING DEMAND

By 2050, world population will increase from 7.3 billion to 9.7 billion, with more than half this growth occurring in Africa.5 Meat consumption is projected to rise nearly 73% and dairy consumption by 58% over 2010 levels.6

Urban areas will grow by more than 2.5 billion people — half the world is urban now, and two-thirds will be urban by 2050.7 Ninety percent of these new urban dwellers will reside in Africa and Asia.8

Available labor for food production will decline as young people leave rural areas for cities.

recommendations

6 Global Harvest Initiative | 2016 GAP Report®

End Hunger The global number of hungry people could be reduced by

as many as 135 million if women had equal access to

productive resources.14

Improve Nutrition & Health Build human capital through investments

in basic and higher education so future generations can harness

advancements in food production and agrotechnology.

Regenerate the Environment Regenerate the natural environment

through completely new bio-innovation economies that supply food, create jobs, reduce waste

and improve health.

Foster an Inclusive, Thriving World

Farmers participate in new markets and consumers access food diversity

through better trade, infrastructure and transparent information.

How can we foster sustainability, health and inclusive economic growth in an uncertain season?

With a long-term commitment to the right

policies, investments and science-based

technologies and practices,

WE CAN ...

Build Resilience Invest in agricultural productivity,

helping farmers of all scales build stable businesses and remain competitive

during volatile business cycles.