Upload
tre-networks
View
218
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 1/24
Click to edit Master subtitle style
5/5/12
The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the
New Economy
John W. Bardo [email protected]
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 2/24
5/5/12
The Push for CollegeGraduates
Universities and community collegesare facing increasing pressure toexpand the number of college
graduates based on largely on thenotion that the majority of “good jobs”in the future will require college
education
According to various estimates, as
many as 63 percent of all jobs
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 3/24
5/5/12
Jobs in the New Economy
The term “New Economy” describesaspects or sectors of an economy thatare producing or intensely using
innovative or new technologies. Thisrelatively new concept appliesparticularly to industries where people
depend more and more on computers,telecommunications and the Internetto produce, sell and distribute goodsand services. (OECD, 2011)
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 4/24
5/5/12
Prosperity in the New Economy is seenas tied to education.
For an entity—in this case a state—tobe prosperous, it must have an
educated workforce
Given the changing demands, it is
understood that this cannot beaccomplished without includingtraditionally under-involved people
including women, minorities, and thosewith low-income
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 5/24
5/5/12
However, policy discussiondoes not currently focus on thespecific structure of the linkbetween the New Economy
and Education, nor thepatterns of enrollment andemployment of the key
populations (women,minorities, and low-income)who will compose asubstantial if not ma orit of
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 6/24
5/5/12
My Research…
What are the key structures of the NewEconomy that might be related todemand for educated labor,
unemployment, state GDP, andaverage household income?
To what extent do patterns of enrollment in four-year colleges anduniversities relate to these key
structures and economic performance
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 7/24
5/5/12
Innovation and Entrepreneurship
“Very few Americans areaware that small and
medium-size businesses areresponsible for most of the
jobs in America”
(Jim Clifton (2011), The Coming Jobs War. New York: Gallup
Press, p.29)
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 8/24
5/5/12
According to Richard Florida…
“Real wealth is based on the ‘thegoods and products we wish toconsume or of the things (factories,
machinery, and educated workforce)that give us the ability to producemore such goods and services.’”
(Richard Florida (2010) The Great Reset. New York: HarperCollins,
p. 111)
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 9/24
5/5/12
Key “New Economy”Structures
• Magnitude of the state-level NewEconomy
• Business Innovation
•
Education-linked Innovation
K I di t B i
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 10/24
5/5/12
Key Indicators: BusinessInnovation
v
Employment in high tech businesses as a percent of all employment
vComputer specialists as a percent of the workforce
vBusiness R&D as a share of industry inputs
vEngineers as a percent of the workforce
vSBIRs per million dollars of state GDP
vVenture capital per million dollars of stateGDP
vS&E graduate students per thousand
people age 25 to 34
K I di t Ed ti
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 11/24
5/5/12
Key Indicators: Education-linked Innovation
vAcademic R&D as a percent of state GDP
vS&E bachelor’s degrees per 1000 18-34year olds
vPercent of 25 to 44 year olds who are highschool graduates
vS&E graduate students per thousandpeople
age 25 to 34vSBIRs per million dollars of
state GDP
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 12/24
5/5/12
ey oc o-demographic/enrollment
constructs•State college-going intensity (not rate)
•
Traditional college enrollment
•Hispanic diversity
• Traditional diversity (percent women, percent
African American, and Percent on Pell Grantskey indicators)
•Financial aid—cost discounting
•Education loans (“middle-income” financial
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 13/24
5/5/12
Projections of Jobs RequiringDegrees by State
Component Coefficient
Business Innovation .30
Education-Linked Innovation .39
Traditional Diversity -.25
Financial Aid--Cost Discounting -.35
R2 .56
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 14/24
5/5/12
Median Household Incomeby State
Component Coefficient
Business Innovation .23
Traditional College Enrollment .17
Traditional Diversity -.25
Financial Aid--Cost Discounting -.54
Education Loans .27
R2 .75
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 15/24
5/5/12
e an ouse o ncomeby State with Percent
College GraduatesComponent Coefficient
Business Innovation .23
Traditional College Enrollment -.05
Traditional Diversity -.15
Financial Aid--Cost Discounting -.38
Education Loans .24
Percent of Adults with CollegeDegrees
.42
R2 .81
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 16/24
5/5/12
Per Capita GDP by State(Without Arizona and Delaware)
Component Coefficient
Hispanic Diversity .31
Financial Aid--Cost Discounting -.36
Education Loans .58
R2 .54
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 17/24
5/5/12
With Percent CollegeGraduates
(Without Arizona and Delaware)
Component Coefficient
Hispanic Diversity .29
Financial Aid--Cost Discounting -.25
Education Loans .51
Percent of Adults with CollegeDegrees
.23
R2 .58
A li d U l t
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 18/24
5/5/12
Annualized UnemploymentRate by State, 2009
(Without Michigan)
Component Coefficient
Magnitude of the New Economy in
State
.26
Education-Linked Innovation -.31
Traditional Diversity .27
R2 .31
nn a e nemp o men
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 19/24
5/5/12
nnua ze nemp oymenRate by State, 2009 IncludingPercent Adults with College
Degrees(Without Michigan)
Component Coefficient
Magnitude of the New Economy in
State
.27
Education-Linked Innovation -.27
Traditional Diversity .26
Percent Adults with College -.08
R2 .31
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 20/24
5/5/12
What About Education-Linked
Innovation?
Component Coefficient
Traditional College Enrollment .51
Traditional Diversity -.29
Enrollment Intensity .26
Hispanic Diversity -.25
R2 .48
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 21/24
5/5/12
Some Policy Approaches
• States need to be careful that the “completionagenda” does not undermine the key role of Education-linked Innovation associated withgraduate education, R&D, and technology transfer.Increasing support in these areas would be evenmore beneficial
• Universities must find ways to increase theeffectiveness and efficiency of undergraduateeducation as measured by meaningful studentlearning and increased throughput
•States need to adopt a unified approach to highereducation and economic policy consistent with theNGA “Best Practices” papers
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 22/24
5/5/12
§ Create a national dialog that focuses morespecifically on the types of education that arenecessary to be competitive
§ Assess science in elementary schools: teachers focus
on what is evaluated
§ Train teachers regarding best practices in earlyscience education
§ Focus on self-esteem and self-confidence; these arekey issues
§ Create a national mentor program for traditionalminorities and Hispanics
§ Better advertise and support scholarship programsfor science and technolo ma ors
States must recognize the importance of “inclusion” if they are to meet theireducational and economic goals
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 23/24
5/5/12
•
At universities, expand services and supportsystems for traditional minorities and women
• Expand and fund support for studies of disincentives that affect under-representedpopulations majoring in critical need areas
• Work with the professional associations to dealwith the subtle messaging that affects
professional self-esteem and confidence
8/3/2019 The Great Divide: Socio-Demographics and the New Economy
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-great-divide-socio-demographics-and-the-new-economy 24/24
5/5/12
American competitiveness isbased on linking educationalachievement, economicinnovation, and inclusion…there
is no “silver bullet”