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The Greatest Inflection Point in Technology History
Peter Wells
Sr. Director
WW Strategy and Business Development
2
What is an inflection point?
What are some of the great inflection points in history? B
in·flec·tion point
Noun
1. MATHEMATICS
a point of a curve at which a change in the direction of curvature occurs
2. BUSINESS
a time of significant change in a situation; a turning point
3
Fire
4
Farming
5
Wine Making
6
Gunpowder
7
Electricity
8
#4: The Transistor
John Bardeen, William Shockley and Walter Brattain
Bell Labs, 1947
What are the greatest inflection points in technology history? My top 4
9
IBM PC
Steve Jobs offered him the job of President of Apple
Don Estridge
IBM, 1981
#3 ????
11
The web bowser… creating the Internet as we know it
#2 ???
12
Technology Cycles by the Numbers
Normalized IT Spending Growth versus GDP Growth
Source: CIMI Corporation
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
PC Internet New Tech
Cycle Mainframe
13
The Grid The Foundation for the Internet of Everything
#1 Greatest Inflection Point in Technology History is Happening Now!
Public Internet
Business Networks
Mobile Networks
Internet of Things
14
Elastic Enterprise
New Experiences, New Business Models, New Services
Concierge Internet Next Generation SP
15
Agenda
Vision of the Concierge Internet
How Did We Get Here? Market Dynamics
The Grid: Platform for Innovation
Elastic Enterprise
Next Generation Service Provider
16
Colorado
17
Denver
18
The Concierge Internet
19
The Concierge Internet
“Best travel route is…”
“Your flight is running on time”
“West side parking garage level 2 has open spots”
“South security is least crowded”
20
Agenda
Vision of the Concierge Internet
How Did We Get Here? Market Dynamics
The Grid: Platform for Innovation
Elastic Enterprise
Next Generation Service Provider
21 Cisco Confidential 21
Social
Cloud
Tornado Markets Creating a Perfect Storm of Change
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The average lifespan of a company listed in
the S&P 500 has decreased from 67 years in
the 1920’s to 15 years today. Richard Foster
Yale University
By 2020, more than three quarters of the
S&P 500 will be companies that we have not
heard of yet.
*Babson Olin School of Business Advertisement, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.
IN 10 YEARS
OVER 40% OF THE
FORTUNE 500
WILL NO LONGER BE HERE*
SURVEY OF 1700
CEOs GLOBALLY
KEY FINDINGS?
2012 IBM Global CEO Study
CEO SURVEY
WHAT EXTERNAL FORCES OR FACTORS COULD IMPACT YOUR
ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT 3-5 YEARS?
Source: IBM 2012 Global CEO Study
PEOPLE
SKILLS
MARKET FACTORS TECHNOLOGY
FACTORS
MACRO-ECONOMIC
FACTORS
REGULATORY
CONCERNS
GLOBALIZATION SOCIO-ECONOMIC
FACTORS ENVIRONMENTAL
GEO-POLITICAL
FACTORS
2012 IBM Global CEO Study
CEO’S Expect Technology
To Drive The Most Change In
Their Organizations Over
The Next Five Years
2012 IBM Global CEO Study
28
Technology Change is Rampant: Smartphones
29
Technology Change is Rampant: iTunes
30 Cisco Confidential 30
Gartner’s Take
31
Business Strategy Merging with Technology Strategy
Customers
Competition
Process
Strategy CEOs & Government
Leaders
BUSINESS Architecture / Business IMPERATIVES
TECHNOLOGY Architecture
DCs / Applications
Connectivity
CIOs
Collaboration Business Results
Competitive differentiation
Customer acquisition
Grow revenues
Real time network analytics
Virtualized network elements and SDN
Delight the customer
PRIME
Cisco ONE
Massively Distributed Data Centers
OnePK
ISR G3
ASR9000 Nexus and UCS
Customers Business Strategy
Elastic Enterprise
Next Gen Service Provider
Concierge Internet
CEOs CTOs
& CIOs
Unified business &
technology architectures
32
Find the Seam!
The Seam Real time
Business Value
Products Software Support/
Services
CIOs TECHNOLOGY Architecture
CEOs &
Government Leaders
BUSINESS Architecture / Business IMPERATIVES
Products/
Services Customer
Experience
Customer
Acquisition
33
Agenda
Vision of the Concierge Internet
How Did We Get Here? Market Dynamics
The Grid: Platform for Innovation
Elastic Enterprise
Next Generation Service Provider
34
Today, Networks Stand Apart Public Internet and Applications
New Media
Social Networks
Search
Email, storage
Video
Communication
Gaming
OTT Apps
Public DCs eCommerce
35
Today, Networks Stand Apart Business Networks and Business Applications
PBXs
Smartphones
Tablets
Business Apps
Email, Storage
MPLS
Collaboration Apps
VPNs
Private DCs
Extranets
Hybrid DCs
36
Today, Networks Stand Apart Mobile Networks
Feature Phones
Smartphones
Tablets
iTunes
2G
Android
LTE
Apps Stores
Mobile Apps
Mobile Data
3G
37
Today, Networks Stand Apart Internet of Things (Sensors and M2M)
Building Management
Transportation
Retail
Smart Devices
Cars, Roads
Manufacturing
Point of Sale, Vending
Oil and Gas
Wifi
Commercial
Real Estate
RFID LTE
38
Federating Networks, Data Centers, Applications, and Things is The Grid enabling the Internet of Everything
Public Internet
Business Networks
Mobile Networks
Internet of Things
39
Scattered Analytics Getting Collected
Vz / AT&T
Likes and Hobbies
Friends and Family
Location
Search
Applications
Browsing
Public Internet
Content consumed
Business Networks
Expertise
Company-specific Analytics
Business Apps
Mobile Networks
Device
Location Web Services
Internet of Things
City Cameras
Oil and Gas
Manufacturing
Medical
Meters
Automotive
40
Network Is the Common Denominator Can Become the Most Insightful Analytics Engine!
Vz / AT&T
Likes and Hobbies
Friends and Family
Location
Search
Applications
Browsing
Public Internet
Content consumed
Business Networks
Expertise
Company-specific Analytics
Business Apps
Mobile Networks
Device
Location Web Services
Internet of Things
City Cameras
Oil and Gas
Manufacturing
Medical
Meters
Automotive
41
Analytics and Privacy
42
Ingredients for the Intelligent Infrastructure
Integrate networking and compute throughout; Virtualize network functions
Enable application integration and an open development community
Abstract and orchestrate network & DC resources; Application aware
With policy, security, control
throughout
43
Agenda
Vision of the Concierge Internet
How Did We Get Here? Market Dynamics
The Grid: Platform for Innovation
Elastic Enterprise
Next Generation Service Provider
44
The Concierge Internet Meets The Elastic Enterprise
45
A concierge experience for the customer
Intelligent store design and staffing
46
Joe’s new shopping experience
Customer
Experience
Automatic Wifi Connectivity
Indoor Location Services
47
Targeted
Advertising
Weekly Specials
Coupon Center
All Offers
Personalized Deals
WELCOME Personal Shopper
Specials
Peter Wells
Personalized Loyalty Programs
Joe’s new shopping experience
48
Targeted
Advertising
Context Aware Services
Buying
Paint?
Don’t’
forget drop-
cloths
Buying a
ceiling fan?
Can we
Install it for
you?
Joe’s new shopping experience
49
Joe’s new shopping experience Immediate Access to Expertise
Customer
Experience Product Consultant
Click to Scan
Any Product Bar Code
Product Website
Manufacturer Chat
Expert Chat
Expert Live
In-Store Help
50
Enabling Joe’s new shopping experience
In Store
From Home (or anywhere)
Shopping List
Inventory Check
Purchase Assistance
IN-STORE
PICK UP
51
Network Data / Analytics Creating New Business Intelligence
Peak Times in the Venue? Most Frequently Used Paths in the Venue New or Repeat Customers?
Where did People Spend Time? How does dwell time vary through the day?
52
Enabling Elastic / Flexible Retail
Staff in the right
place at right time
Personalized /
intelligently placed
displays / offers Enabled consumer:
- Location assistance
- Product information
- Project support
Efficient store design /
product placement
Opt-in
Context aware offers
- Upsell / related products
- Service offerings
- Loyalty Program
54
Anybody really like fluorescent lighting???
55
Commercial Lighting In Transition
Source: Narukawa, Y. et al. (2010) ‘White light emitting diodes with super-high luminous efficacy’,
commercial lighting market
will constitute share in 2020
Source: Pike Research
of commercial building energy is consumed for
Source: 2008 EIA Buildings Energy Data Book
of global electricity is used for
Source: The Climate Group
56
Power Over Ethernet (POE) LED Lighting
57
Enabling the Digital Ceiling
‘Digital Ceiling’ is a framework that enables an intelligent and integrated ceiling infrastructure that is
DC powered (Ethernet Cable / PoE), secured, monitored and managed real time on an IP network
Dense
Sensor
Network
(Light, Motion,
CO2/CO, etc.)
Building Mgmt
System
PoE / UPoE
Switch in the
Ceiling
GW
WiFi
Access Point
IP Video
Surveillance
Camera
Wall Switch
Commercial
LED PoE Fixtures
Ethernet Cable
Building Mgmt
(Connected HVAC)
Digital Ceiling Applications
…
Cisco / Partner
Cloud Services
• Joulex – Lighting Manager:
:
Enterprise
LAN Wiring Closet
Network
manager
59
Intelligent Network
Elastic Infrastructure
Data Center Enterprise
Data Center Apps
Apps Apps
Apps
ISR G2
Firewall
ASA
Enterprise
What about Enterprise policy and security, especially network security?
What about Enterprise networking functions and SDN?
Intelligent
60
Agenda
Vision of the Concierge Internet
How Did We Get Here? Market Dynamics
The Grid: Platform for Innovation
Elastic Enterprise
Next Generation Service Provider
61 Cisco Confidential 61
Market Transitions
Networking
Storage Compute
62
Intelligent Network Physical
Network
ASR9K,
900,
NCS
Compute (UCS)
Storage
Virtual Services Virtual
Network
Service Delivery Platform
Building Blocks for the Intelligent Carrier Infrastructure
Intelligent Hybrid Edge
Integrated
L1-L3 Core
Data Center
OpenDaylight, OpenStack OpenDaylight, OpenStack
Unified Orchestration
Enterprise Data Center Apps
Apps Apps
Apps
Elastic Enterprise
ISR G2
Firewall
ASA
Integrated L1-3 creates
massive efficiencies
Intelligent Core Intelligent Cloud
CSR
vFW
vASA
OpenDaylight
Intelligent
Apps Apps
Apps Apps
Next Generation Service Provider
63
New Infrastructure Required
Enterprise
Transition
Infrastructure
End to end Workflow
and Policy
Analytics
Infrastructure
Distributed
Orchestration
Hybrid Edge
64
Forces at Work
Transition to the
Elastic
Enterprise
Distribution of
Cloud
Functions
Move to SW
based service
delivery Massive Growth
and Distribution
of Data
65
Elastic Enterprise Concierge Internet Next Generation SP
66
The Grid: The Greatest Inflection Point
Public Internet
Business Networks
Mobile Networks
Internet of Things
67
68
The Concierge Internet Will Be Everywhere
Shared Industry
Infrastructure Omni Channel Moving
employees from
harms way
New ways to connect
with patients Constituent self
service
For Healthcare
Providers For Financial Services
companies
For Retail and
Consumer Products For Manufacturing,
Energy, & Communities For Public Sector
69
Internet of Everything Creating New End Points, New Networking Requirements
Source: Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group, 2012
Internet
of Things
“Fixed”
Computing
Mobility /
BYOD
Internet of
Everything
70 Cisco Confidential 70
The Next Generation Service Provider
Enterprise Consumer
Service
Provider
