The Gulf of Maine Integrated Model System: A Hindcast Experiment from 1995 to 2006

The UMASSD Team: C. Chen, G. Cowles, S. Hu, Q. Xu, P. Xue and D. Stuebe

The WHOI Team:

R. C. Beardsley, C. Davis, R. Ji and D. Limeburner

The MIT Team:

P. Rizzolli and J. Wei

Website: http://fvcom.smast.umassd.edu

Regional domain MM5(resolution: 30 km)

Non-hydrostatic

Wind stress, heat flux, air pressure, precipitation via evaporation

Local domain MM5(resolution: 10 km)

ETA (32 km)Hydrostatic

Air stationsBuoy dataSatellite dataLocal network

SST (9 km)Local buoys

Assimilation

Assimilation

Nested

Nested

The Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank MM5 Weather Hindcast/Forecast Model System

Local domain

Regional domain

Sites of Surface Buoys

1. Hindcast assimilation for years 1978-2006

2. On-line forecast system

First Generation Second Generation

Horizontal Resolution:

0.5-1.0 km in the coastal region

31-sigma levels in the vertical

Horizontal Resolution:

0.3-1.0 km in the coastal region

31-sigma levels in the vertical

256 Processors (Intel 3.4 GHz Pentium 4)256 Gigabytes RAM, Infiniband High Speed Network 7 Terabytes disk space

Third generation of GOM FVCOMHorizontal resolution: 10 -500 m in the coastal region

Generalized terrain-following coordinates46 layers: 10 uniform layers in the surface and bottom boundary layers, respectively

Penobscot Bay

Boston harbor area

1. Analysis of the 27 meteorological model results (H. Song with helps from C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley, G. Cowles);

2. Model-data comparison-GoMOOS, NS and New England Shelf (C. Chen, G. Cowles, D. Limeburner, R. C. Beardsley, Q. Xu and P. Xue);

3. Data assimilation experiments (OI and Ensemble Kalman Filters) (J. Wei, Q. Xu, P. Rizzoli, C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley);

4. Convert the GoM integrated model system to the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS), with upgraded meteorological model (WRF)

(G. Cowles, C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley)

The Works Completed Since the Last Workshop

Wind stress spectrum calculated from the 1978-2004 hourly wind fields

Annual peak

3-7 days

Monthly averaged Ekman Flux onto Georges Bank

Ts: SSTTa: Air-temperature

P: precipitationE: evaporation

Qnet: net fluxQsw: short-waveQsen: sensibleQlat: latent Qlw: long-wave

: wind stress

Monthly-averaged surface wind stress

Monthly-averaged net heat flux

Monthly-averaged precipitation

January-March

Qne

t (W/m

2)

Surface wind stress

Surface net heat flux

Decade scale1998

NAO index via normalized negative wind stress (Jan-March)

NAO index via normalized heat flux (Jan-March)

14(8)

7(6)

1(9)

1980 strong wind year for GB, 1990 weak wind year for GB. (numbers in bracket is for year 1990)

2002

Buoy A: 2 m

Buoy B: 2 m

Buoy C: 2 m

Buoy E: 2 m

2002

FVCOM Model Validation: Comparison with CMO Observations

Time Frame: Aug 1996 to Jun 1997

Location: New England Shelf, SW of Nantucket# Moorings: 4 (Central, Alongshore, Inshore, Offshore)Oceanic Variables: velocity, temp, conductivity, bottom pressure, bottom stress.Atmospheric Variables: wind stress, heat flux, buoyancy flux.

Steve Lentz’s data

Cowles and Lentz’s work

Temperature (Celsius) during CMO Period at Central SiteAugust 1996 - June 1997

Observed

FVCOM

Subtidal Surface Current During CMO: Observed (red) FVCOM (black)Along Isobath (Above, ~east) and Cross Isobath (Below, ~north)

N1/N2

Comparison between observed and model-computed surface water temperatures and subtidal velocities at site N2 in Nantucket Sound. No assimilation is included. Mooring data from R. Limeburner.

Mooring Sites

April 2002 May 2002

June 2002

T: Temperature: red dotsT/S: Temperature&salinity: blue dots

OI Data Assimilation Experiments

Without OI

With OI Assimilation

Without OI

With OI Assimilation

Without OI

With OI Assimilation

GOMOOS station BGoMOOS Mooring Site B

First generation GOM FVCOM

Temperature field at day 1 after assimilation

With EnKFWithout EnKF

Time series of temperature at GOMOOS station B

1 2 34.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

Time (days)

Tem

per

atu

re (

o C)

AssimilationDataModel

Velocity field at day 1 after assimilation

With EnKFWithout EnKF

Time series of velocity at GoMOOS station B

1 2 3-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

Time (days)

V

1 2 3

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

Time (days)

Vel

oci

ty (

m/s

)

U

AssimilationModel

U (m/s) V (m/s)

MASS CoastalFVCOM

Surface Wave Model

Generalized Ecosystem Model (FVCOM Module)

Sediment Transport Model(FVCOM Module)

Local Weather Model (WRF)

North American Meso-scale (NAM) Weather Model

Satellite SSTBuoy WindsInsolation

Satellite SST, U,V

Buoy T,S,U,V

Freshwater Input

Global Tidal Model

Under developed

Existing Models

FVCOM System

KEY

Heat Flux Wind Stress P-E U,V

PA

R

Data

BC’s

BC’s

U,V Waves, Langmuir Cells

Form Drag

assimilation

assimilation

Multi-Stage Zooplankton Model (IBM and concentration-based)

Nutrients, PhytoplanktonOcean Colors

Fish Larval Model(IBM and concentration-based)

VPR

Larval data

GoM/GB FVCOM

BC’s Inflow

Groundwater Input

Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)

30 km

10 km

9 km

3 km

WRF

MM5

5-day forecast

3 day hindcast

5-day forecast 5-day forecast

3 day hindcast 3 day hindcast

: The time starting for a 5 day forecast

: The time ending for a 5 day forecast

: The time zone for a 3 day hindcast with inclusion of the data asimilation : The time updating the initial condition for a 5 day forecast zone.

ETA/WRF regional/coastal forecast

SWAN/FVCOM regional forecast

SWAN/FVCOM coastal forecast

MM5 WRF

Time: 0:00 GMT April 17 2007

MM5 Surface Heat Flux WRF Surface Heat Flux

Time: 0:00 GMT April 17 2007

3 km resolution results of WRF: Surface wind vectors and net heat flux

0:00 GMT April 17 2007

Non-hydrostatic FVCOM (Lai’s thesis work)

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On-going Activities

1. Conduct the data assimilation experiments with OI and K-Filters-partially have been completed for selected year experiments

2. Validate the FVCOM-based unstructured grid surface wave model (SWAN-US).

3. Improve the model dynamics with more accurate and complete river discharges

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