The Historic Ice Storm of January 26-28, 2009

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The Historic Ice Storm of January 26-28, 2009

Memphis AMS/NWA Presentation – Feb. 2010

Pat Spoden, Daniel Spaeth, Mike York, Robin Smith, Shane Luecke, Beverly Poole, Christine Wielgos

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OUTLINE• Brief review of the storm• Review of the environment and forcing (Why was it so

bad?)• Latent heating just about saves the day!• Lessons Learned

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UNIQUE IMPACT(THIS TIME IT WAS PERSONAL)

• The ice storm impacted each and every member of our staff significantly.

• I was without power for 5 days. Some were out for 21 days! Sent my family to Atlanta – I had to work.

• Kids in school for a full week while many were

without power.

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Radar

KPAH Reflectivity & METARs

6 PM Monday 12 AM Tuesday

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Radar

KPAH Reflectivity & METARs

6 AM Tuesday 12 PM Tuesday

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice StormEnvironment 6 PM Friday (23rd)

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 PM Monday

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 AM Tuesday

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 PM Tuesday

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment 6 AM Wednesday

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Environment

850-700mbTheta-e Conv.

800mb Wind

Midnight Monday

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800mb Wind

6 AMTuesday

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800mb Wind

12 PM Tuesday

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800mb Wind

6 PM Tuesday

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800mb Wind

12 AMWednesday

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Sounding At

KPAH(GFS)

6 PM Monday

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Sounding At

KPAH

12 AMTuesday

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Sounding At

KPAH

6 AM Tuesday

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Sounding At

KPAH

12 PM Tuesday

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Sounding At

KPAH

6 PM Tuesday

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Sounding At

KPAH

12 AMWednesday

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Latent Heat Concerns

When water freezes it goes from liquid to solid phase. Liquid is a higher energy state thansolid, so energy will be released when this transition occurs. The energy is in the form of heat which warms the air.

10 PM12 AM

2 AM

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm The Perfect Storm

• Sub-freezing air in place for over 72 hours before storm.

• Persistent southwest flow aloft with cool northeast flow at the surface.

• Persistent low-level forcing for lift, with lots of moisture streaming into the region.

• No instability lighter rain rates efficient icing

• Latent heating continuously offset by cool northeast surface flow. Temperatures staying at or below freezing.

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Forecast Confidence

1. Persistent trends in successive runs of a single model. 24+ hours of consistency leads to increased confidence.

2. Personal experience can lead to forecast confidence. “I’ve seen this many times.” – pattern recognition.

3. Clustering of the operational models around a common solution.

4. #3 is a baby step toward Ensemble Forecast Systems.

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Forecast Confidence Long Term

• Noticed this pattern on 4 runs of the GFS over a 2 day period. European model very similar.

• Recognized the pattern as one that could lead to an unpleasant winter scenario for our area.

• Aware that these models typically depict major large-scale events very well and very early (7-10days out).

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Forecast Confidence Long Term

ILZ094-KYZ005>009-011-211030-MASSAC-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...METROPOLIS...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE302 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2009

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCEOF RAIN OR SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY324 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2009

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRSTHALF OF NEXT WEEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY125 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2009 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKING MORE LIKELY AT SOME POINT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm Signs of a Big Event

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm SREF Signs of a Big Event

SREF9 AM

Monday

Chance of FZRA

& 1”/24 hrs QPF

Valid 6 PM Tuesday

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January 26-28, 2009 Ice Storm SREF Signs of a Big Event

• The GFS and ECMWF nailed the synoptic setting for the event 7 days ahead of time.

• Model QPFs averaging ~2.5”.

• Strong signal for 1” and 2” 24 hour QPFs in the SREF.

• Extreme QPF collocated with high probability of freezing rain in SREF.

• SREF Mean indicating 250% of normal precipitable water with no instability.

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Are You Really Prepared?

It was an interesting event in many ways…

Plus 5 countiesIn SW Indiana

Disaster Declarations

769,000 power outages and at least 36 deaths in KY$185-231M in Kentucky alone

Tree damage in Western KY: 3.5 million cubic yds

The costliest disaster in Kentucky's history - Courier-Journal

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Preparation • Have an up-to-date disaster kit• Gas up your vehicles• Have cash on hand• Think about your pets• Test your backup generator - fill with gas• Fill extra gas cans for generator and

vehicles• Have a plan for what to do with your family

if you have to work• Prepare for no communications – HAM

radio?• Create a plan in the event you cannot

contact everyone (Call down chart ): We had 1 person MIA for a period of time

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During storm… • Use ice/snow to pack coolers of

frozen – refrigerated foods• Fill bathtub with water to use in

toilets• If you have a camper or motor home –

set this up as residence• Gas fire logs (non vented) to heat

homes• Monitor radio for possible shelters,

places to buy gas/groceries, updates to power situation.

• Monitor damage area for signs of improvement in order to get what you need

• Check on neighbors/friends – lend a helping hand when you are able

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Will it ever happen again?

Not likely, but…..

It could happen this season or next!


Documents

The Historic Ice Storm of January 26-28, 2009