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THE HUMAN THE HUMAN POPULATIONPOPULATION
Chapter 5 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 6
Population ExplosionPopulation Explosion
> 1800’s – slow growth> 1800’s – slow growth 1830 – 1 billion 1830 – 1 billion Time needed to add 1
billion
1930 – 2 billion1930 – 2 billion 100 years100 years 1960 – 3 billion1960 – 3 billion 30 years 30 years 1975 – 4 billion1975 – 4 billion 15 years 15 years 1987 – 5 billion1987 – 5 billion 12 years 12 years 1999 – 6 billion1999 – 6 billion 12 years 12 years 2011 – 7 billion (?) 12 years 2011 – 7 billion (?) 12 years
For information purposes only
A.D.2000
A.D.1000
A.D.1
1000B.C.
2000B.C.
3000B.C.
4000B.C.
5000B.C.
6000B.C.
7000B.C.
1+ million years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
OldStoneAge New Stone Age
BronzeAge
IronAge
MiddleAges
ModernAge
Black Death —The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.3000
A.D.4000
A.D.5000
18001900
1950
1975
2000
2100
Future
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION GROWTH THROUGH HISTORYTHROUGH HISTORY
Major Human AgesMajor Human Ages
1.1. Hunter-gatherer Hunter-gatherer 100,000-10,000 years 100,000-10,000 years agoago
2.2. Agricultural Era Agricultural Era 10,000 – 1700’s10,000 – 1700’s
3.3. Industrial RevolutionIndustrial Revolution– EarlyEarly mid 1700’s - 1940mid 1700’s - 1940– ModernModern 1940 – present1940 – present
The world population has been The world population has been growing rapidly over the past 100 growing rapidly over the past 100 years. Why?years. Why?
Is it due to an increase in birth rate?Is it due to an increase in birth rate? Is it due to a decrease in death rate?Is it due to a decrease in death rate? Is it due to longer life expectancy?Is it due to longer life expectancy? Is it a combination of these factors? Is it a combination of these factors? The answers to this question can be The answers to this question can be
found by studying demography. found by studying demography. – – to be examined laterto be examined later
GlossaryGlossary
Define the following terms:Define the following terms: Birth Rate (BR)Birth Rate (BR) Death Rate (DR)Death Rate (DR) Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)
BR – DRBR – DR Total Fertility Rate (TFR)Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Infant MortalityInfant Mortality Life ExpectancyLife Expectancy Doubling timeDoubling time GNI PPP per capita and GNPGNI PPP per capita and GNP Replacement level fertility (RLF)Replacement level fertility (RLF)
Look up these terms and understand their meaning
World Economic World Economic DivisionsDivisions
Low-income countriesLow-income countries GNI < $766 GNI < $766 Middle-income countries Middle-income countries GNI $766-$9385 GNI $766-$9385 High-income countriesHigh-income countries GNI >$9385 GNI >$9385 More Developed countries (Developed)More Developed countries (Developed) – High – High--
incomeincome Less Developed countries (Developing)Less Developed countries (Developing) – Low and – Low and
Middle incomeMiddle income
GNI = Gross National IncomeGNI = Gross National Income
Two Worlds – Two Worlds – Developed WorldDeveloped World
1.1. 18% of world’ population18% of world’ population
2.2. wealthy nations - use 80% of world’s wealthy nations - use 80% of world’s resourcesresources
3.3. affluence – over consumptionaffluence – over consumption
4.4. slow or no population growthslow or no population growth
5.5. high per person environmental impacthigh per person environmental impact
6.6. I = P.A.TI = P.A.T
Two Worlds – Two Worlds – Developing WorldDeveloping World
1.1. 82% of world’ population82% of world’ population2.2. Low and middle-income nations - use Low and middle-income nations - use
20% of world’s resources20% of world’s resources3.3. 28% (1.5 billion people) of the 28% (1.5 billion people) of the
population of developing world live onpopulation of developing world live on4.4. rapid population growthrapid population growth5.5. low per person environmental impactlow per person environmental impact6.6. 28% live on less than $1/day28% live on less than $1/day
World Population - World Population - 20072007
Population Population SizeSize
Rate of Rate of Natural Natural Increase Increase
TotalTotalFertility rateFertility rate
WorldWorld 6.6 billion 1.2% 2.7
More Developed More Developed CountriesCountries
1.2 billion 0.1% 1.6
Less Developed Less Developed CountriesCountries
5.3 billion 1.5% 2.9
Less Developed Less Developed Countries Countries (excluding China)(excluding China)
4.0 billion4.0 billion 1.8%1.8% 3.33.3
Examine the “2007 World Examine the “2007 World Population Data Sheet” . Print a Population Data Sheet” . Print a copy of the copy of the 2007 Data Sheet 2007 Data Sheet pdfpdf file file (I gave you a copy of this).(I gave you a copy of this).
How do BR, DR, TFI, Life How do BR, DR, TFI, Life expectancy etc. differ in the More expectancy etc. differ in the More Developed and Less Developed Developed and Less Developed World? World?
18% of the world’s population live 18% of the world’s population live in developed world, 82% in less in developed world, 82% in less developed world.developed world.
76 million people added to the 76 million people added to the world population per year.world population per year.
98% of population growth is 98% of population growth is occurring in developing countries. occurring in developing countries. Why?Why?
Quality of Life Quality of Life IndicatorsIndicators The United Nations rates a countries The United Nations rates a countries
Human Development Index (HDI) Human Development Index (HDI) (external link) (external link) on the basis of the following quality of life on the basis of the following quality of life indicators:indicators:
1.1. Life expectancyLife expectancy - living a long and healthy life - living a long and healthy life 2.2. Adult literacy rateAdult literacy rate and and 3.3. Purchasing power parity, PPPPurchasing power parity, PPP - having a decent - having a decent
standard of living (measured by, income). standard of living (measured by, income). These factors gives insight into the ability of These factors gives insight into the ability of
population to take care of itself.population to take care of itself. A low income society will not have the money A low income society will not have the money
(GNI) to spend on food, shelter jobs and health (GNI) to spend on food, shelter jobs and health care which affects the Infant Mortality Rate and care which affects the Infant Mortality Rate and Life Expectancy.Life Expectancy.
Basic indicators, 2007
Country
Infant Mortality Rate
Life Expectancy
Per Capita GNI (2006) US$
India 54 64 $3,800
Kenya 77 53 $1,300
China 25 72 $7,730
Brazil 27 72 $8,800
United States
6.5 78 $44,260
Japan 2.8 82 $33,730
Ireland 3.8 78 $35,540
Examine the trend, there is no need to memorize the numbers
Replacement level fertility (RLF)Replacement level fertility (RLF) 2.03 for developed countries2.03 for developed countries 2.16 for developing countries2.16 for developing countries Currently Currently More developed countries TFR = 1.6More developed countries TFR = 1.6 Less developed countries (ex. China) Less developed countries (ex. China)
TFR = 3.3 TFR = 3.3
Fertility Declines in Selected Countries
Total fertility Rates
Country 1960 1989 2007
China 6.0 2.4 1.6
Mexico 7.2 3.8 2.4
Brazil 6.2 3.4 2.3
Indonesia 5.6 3.5 2.4
India 6.2 4.3 2.9
Examine the trend, there is no need to memorize the numbers
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
80
8783
7976 76 75
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Net population added per year Annual population growth rate
Mill
ions
Per
cen
t in
crea
se p
er y
ear
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Quality of LifeQuality of Life What are the effects of population What are the effects of population
growth on the quality of life in the growth on the quality of life in the developing world?developing world?
PovertyPoverty MalnutritionMalnutrition Unsafe waterUnsafe water DiseasesDiseases Lack of housingLack of housing Undermines economic growthUndermines economic growth Environmental degradationEnvironmental degradation
Use the text to examine these factors
What options are What options are available to rural poor ?available to rural poor ? Over-cultivation – soil erosionOver-cultivation – soil erosion Farm marginal landFarm marginal land Illegal activities (poaching, drugs, Illegal activities (poaching, drugs,
prostitution) prostitution) Rural to urban movement - Urban Rural to urban movement - Urban
ghettosghettos Emigration – legal or illegalEmigration – legal or illegal
UrbanizationUrbanization
UrbanizationLargest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000, 2015
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision.
15 megacities (>10 million) in developing world
The poorest of the The poorest of the poorpoor
1.5 billion people live on<$1/day1.5 billion people live on<$1/day Lack:Lack: adequate food adequate food decent housing decent housing jobsjobs health carehealth care results in high infant/child mortality and results in high infant/child mortality and
low life expectancylow life expectancy resort to illegal activities, scavenging, resort to illegal activities, scavenging,
begging, prostitution, illegal immigration begging, prostitution, illegal immigration UN UN MilleniumMillenium Development Goals Development Goals
Absolute PovertyAbsolute Poverty
About 1.5 billion people (about 1 person About 1.5 billion people (about 1 person in 4) lives in “absolute poverty”in 4) lives in “absolute poverty”
Robert McNamara, former president of Robert McNamara, former president of the World Bank defines this asthe World Bank defines this as
““A condition of life so limited by A condition of life so limited by malnutrition, illiteracy, disease, squalid malnutrition, illiteracy, disease, squalid surroundings, high infant mortality, and surroundings, high infant mortality, and low life expectancy as to be beneath any low life expectancy as to be beneath any reasonable definition of human decency.” reasonable definition of human decency.”
Environmental EffectsEnvironmental Effects
What are the effects of population What are the effects of population growth on the environment?growth on the environment?
Soil erosionSoil erosion PoachingPoaching Loss of speciesLoss of species DesertificationDesertification Air/water pollutionAir/water pollution
Examine how overpopulation affects these factors
AffluenceAffluence High consumption of food, lumber, High consumption of food, lumber,
nonrenewable resources (minerals, oil)nonrenewable resources (minerals, oil) USA – highest per person consumption USA – highest per person consumption
of resourcesof resources High pollution – COHigh pollution – CO22 , hazardous air , hazardous air
and water pollutantsand water pollutants Impact on developing countries -Impact on developing countries -
tropical forests (lumber), minerals, oil tropical forests (lumber), minerals, oil exported. exported.
Demography - Demography - Population ProfilePopulation Profile A A population profilepopulation profile is a bar graph is a bar graph
which shows:which shows: The number or percentage of The number or percentage of
males and females at each age males and females at each age group in a population.group in a population.
Can be used to estimate the Can be used to estimate the future growth of a population. future growth of a population.
DemographyDemography
The study of populations, their The study of populations, their composition and predictions of composition and predictions of future change.future change.
DemographerDemographer - a person who - a person who studies populations and studies populations and population change over time.population change over time.
ExampleExample
% Natural Increase% Natural Increase is determined by the is determined by the difference between birth rate and death difference between birth rate and death rate. rate.
Population GrowthPopulation Growth is determined by the is determined by the difference between birth rate plus difference between birth rate plus immigration and death rate plus immigration and death rate plus emigration. emigration.
Net Migration rateNet Migration rate - # of people entering - # of people entering or leaving the population per 1000. A + or leaving the population per 1000. A + sign indicated net addition of migrants, a – sign indicated net addition of migrants, a – sign indicated net removal of migrants. sign indicated net removal of migrants.
BR = 39, DR = 21, % Nat. Increase = 2.1% , Growth BR = 39, DR = 21, % Nat. Increase = 2.1% , Growth Rate = 1.8%, TFR = 5.3, Net Migration = unavailable Rate = 1.8%, TFR = 5.3, Net Migration = unavailable
This population is undergoing rapid population growth – pyramid shaped profile
Populations with wide bases tend Populations with wide bases tend to be “young populations” – have to be “young populations” – have a large number of people below a large number of people below age 15. age 15.
Have great momentum for future Have great momentum for future growth as the large number of growth as the large number of young will soon enter their young will soon enter their reproductive years.reproductive years.
BR = 14, DR = 8, % Nat. Increase = 0.6%, Growth BR = 14, DR = 8, % Nat. Increase = 0.6%, Growth Rate =0.9%, TFR = 2.1, Net Migration = 3Rate =0.9%, TFR = 2.1, Net Migration = 3
This population is undergoing slow population growth – notice the base is about the same width as the middle section (15-65 year olds)
BR = 10, DR = 14, % Nat. Increase = -0.5%, BR = 10, DR = 14, % Nat. Increase = -0.5%, Growth Rate = -0.8%, TFR = 1.4, Net Migration Growth Rate = -0.8%, TFR = 1.4, Net Migration = - 4= - 4
This population is undergoing population shrinkage or negative population growth. Notice the base is smaller than the middle population (15-65 year old) group.
Populations with narrow bases are Populations with narrow bases are producing few young. Their TFR has producing few young. Their TFR has been below 2.0 for several years.been below 2.0 for several years.
These populations are shrinkingThese populations are shrinking may not have enough workers to may not have enough workers to
support dependants in the future.support dependants in the future. Many countries of western Europe are Many countries of western Europe are
shrinking (negative percent natural shrinking (negative percent natural increase)increase)
may encourage their populations to may encourage their populations to reproduce and/or open their borders to reproduce and/or open their borders to more immigrant workers. more immigrant workers.
Predictions vs. Predictions vs. ProjectionsProjections In the past, demographers have been In the past, demographers have been
incorrect in their predictions. incorrect in their predictions. Fertility rates have declined faster Fertility rates have declined faster
than were expected.than were expected. They now make projections – low, They now make projections – low,
medium, high. medium, high.
Source: United Nations Population Division, 2003