The Human Population:The Human Population:Patterns, Processes, and ProblematicsPatterns, Processes, and Problematics

Paul SuttonPaul Sutton

psutton@du.edupsutton@du.edu

Department of GeographyDepartment of Geography

University of DenverUniversity of Denver

OutlineOutline

• Sylabus – See HandoutSylabus – See Handout• Texts:Texts:

• Population: An Intro to Concepts & IssuesPopulation: An Intro to Concepts & IssuesBy John WeeksBy John Weeks

• Guns, Germs, & Steel: Guns, Germs, & Steel: The fate of human societiesThe fate of human societies

By Jared DiamondBy Jared Diamond

Course Times CORE 2401Course Times CORE 2401

Lectures

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday 2-2:50

Laboratory/Discussion

Thursday 2-2:50 Boettcher West 126

Who am I?Who am I?

Dr. Paul C. SuttonDepartment of GeographyUniversity of DenverDenver, CO 80208Psutton@du.edu(303) 871-2399Office: Boettcher West #116Office Hours M-Th 3-4 or by appointment

Research interests: Population Mapping with Satellite imagery, Environmental Sustainability,And valuation of ecosystem services

GradingGrading

Exam #1: 20%Exam #1: 20%

Exam #2: 30%Exam #2: 30%

Labs 1-4: 25%Labs 1-4: 25%

Paper: 20%Paper: 20%

Class participation: 5%Class participation: 5%

Course DescriptionCourse Description

• Intro to Demography (The science of Population)

• Some Political Economy & Population Issues

• Demographic Perspective of related social, economic, and environmental issues

• Appreciation of Contemporary Demographic patterns and processes

““Human Population Growth is the single most Human Population Growth is the single most important set of events to occur in human historyimportant set of events to occur in human history””

some questions:some questions:

• Is population growth a root cause of almost all social, Is population growth a root cause of almost all social, economic, and environmental problems?economic, and environmental problems?

• What have been the causes of population growth?What have been the causes of population growth?• What are the consequences of population growth?What are the consequences of population growth?• Why is there so much conflict concerning population Why is there so much conflict concerning population

issues?issues?• Is demography destiny? Or, Can population patterns Is demography destiny? Or, Can population patterns

and processes be planned?and processes be planned?

Coming to grips with demographic history

Human Population Milestones1800 human population reaches 1 Billion

1930 human population reaches 2 Billion

1960 human population reaches 3 Billion

1975 human population reaches 4 Billion

1987 human population reaches 5 Billion

1999 human population reaches 6 Billion

 

My father was born in 1926. Of these 6 milestones he saw

The world reach 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 Billion (5 out of 6)

Carrying CapacityCarrying CapacityThe global human population that the earth can sustain indefinitelyThe global human population that the earth can sustain indefinitely

• Most estimates of the world’s carrying capacity are in the range of 6-15 billion people (how are they made?)

• In your lifetime the earth will reach carrying capacity

• Population growth is THE major contributor to concerns about Energy Supply, Housing Shortages, Hunger, and Environmental Degradation…..

Demography: what is it?Demography: what is it?

• A) The Science of Population

• B) The statistical analysis of populations: Birth Rates, Death Rates, Age & Sex Structures, Infant Mortality, Life Expectancy, etc.

• Who uses demography?: Insurance companies, Businesses, Governments, and smart citizens

Important Phenomena with keydemographic components

• Immigration to the United States

• Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in the Mid-East

• Tutsi-Hutu Conflict in Rwanda and Burundi

• Water wars here on the Colorado Plateau

• Urban Sprawl

• Loss of Biodiversity

• Can you name some more?

Why study Demography?Why study Demography?

To understand:1) Food Security 2) Energy Supply Problems

3) Urbanization 4) Environmental Degradation

5) Migration Patterns 6) Housing Problems

7) Infrastructure Issues 8) Income distribution/economics

9) Unemployment 10) Aging issues

11) Issues associated with the classic conflict between

individual freedom and the collective good

History of Human Population Growth IHistory of Human Population Growth I

• Human Beings (homo sapiens sapiens) that you or I could potentially breed with have been around for at least 200,000 years

• For 180,000 years or 90% of that time we were no more noticeable in terms of biomass, NPP consumption, or ecological impact than coyotes are today

• We lived as hunter-gatherers until about 10,000 years ago. An extensive means of subsistence for which the earth could support 5-10 million people total (i.e. carrying capacity of earth for hunter gatherers is about 5-10 million people)

“The Ghosts of Population Past” ~3 million years ago – Australopithecus

Homo Habilis (tool maker) Homo Erectus

~1 million years ago - Homo Sapiens (archaic)~200,000 years ago – Homo Sapiens (modern)

coexisted with Homo Sapiens (Neandertal)

~35,000 years ago – Homo Sapiens replace Neandertals~10,000 years ago - The agricultural revolution~ 200 years ago - The Industrial revolution~ 30 years ago - The green revolution

The present (6 billion and counting) 

“The Souls of Population Present”Some Introductory Questions:

1)   How many people live on the Earth Right now?

2)   What is the annual Percentage Growth rate of the Planet?

3)   If this rate remained constant, how long would it take for the Earth’s population to double? (the rule of 69)

4)   How many people are added to the Earth’s Population: Every Year? __________ Every Day?____________ Every Hour?__________ Every Second?__________

5) How many abortions happen every year?

6 Billion +1.4%

49 Years

~84,000,000 ~230,000

~10,000 ~3

~50,000,000

What’s in store for future populations?Is this graph possible?

What does zero population growth mean?What does a sustainable economy look like?

What does the graph imply about total population?

The Graphical History of Human Population Growth

“Human beings – mammals of the 50 kilogram weight class and members of a group, the primates, otherwise noted for scarcity – have become a hundred times more numerous than any other land animal of comparable size in the history of life. By every conceivable measure, humanity is ecologically abnormal. Our species appropriates between 20 and 40 per cent of the solar energy captured in organic material by land plants. There is no way that we can draw upon the resources of the planet to such a degree without drastically reducing the state of most other species.”  From E.O. Wilson’s book: “The Diversity of Life”

Major Population Shifts

• 1) The Agricultural Revolution

• 2) The Industrial Revolution

• 3) The ‘Green’ Revolution

• 4) The ‘Gene’ Revolution ????

The ‘J’ CurveAgricultural, Industrial, Green, and Gene(?) revolutions

Major Shift #1: The agricultural revolutionMajor Shift #1: The agricultural revolution

• About 10,000 years ago people in various places started planting crops. (where? Fertile Crescent, Mexico,

China…)• This shift had profound consequences with respect

to:

a) Carrying Capacity Change

b) Population Growth Change

c) Change to spread of disease and resistance

d) Change to nature of human civilization

Why did the Agricultural Revolution Occur?

• 1) Boserup Hypothesis: Population Density pushed to limits of hunter-gatherer carrying capacity thus forcing innovation

• 2) Wasn’t a revolution but an evolution from hunter-gatherer to scatterer-breeder, to tractor driving farmer, to Archer Daniels Midland Corporation

Major Shift #2: The Industrial RevolutionMajor Shift #2: The Industrial Revolution

When? ~ 1750 Where? England -> Western Europe

How? Coal, Steam Engines, Factories, Canals

Why? Population reached agricultural carrying capacity and industrial innovation eliminated need for rural labor

What happened? Out-migration from Europe to New World

The setting of the Industrial Revolution

1) Occurred in Western Europe & Diffused from there2) World population almost 1 billion (reaches 1 billion ~1800)1) Defines the beginning of the population explosion

Major Shift #3: The Green RevolutionMajor Shift #3: The Green Revolution

Changes in Corn, Wheat, and Rice Breeding in 1960’s that Changes in Corn, Wheat, and Rice Breeding in 1960’s that dramatically improved yields dramatically improved yields (lbs of rice,wheat,etc./acre)(lbs of rice,wheat,etc./acre)

Changes in health care (antibiotics, vaccines, sanitation, etc.) Changes in health care (antibiotics, vaccines, sanitation, etc.) that dramatically reduced death ratesthat dramatically reduced death rates

Result: Sustained astronomic population growth just when Result: Sustained astronomic population growth just when collapse seemed imminentcollapse seemed imminent

Beginning in the mid-1940s researchers in Mexico developed broadly adapted, short-stemmed, disease-resistant wheats that excelled at converting fertilizer and water into high yields. The improved seeds were instrumental in boosting Mexican wheat production and averting famine in India and Pakistan, earning the 1970 Nobel Peace Prize for American plant breeder Norman E. Borlaug, leader of the Mexican wheat team.

Major Shift #4: The ‘Gene’ Revolution• Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

frankensteined together by Monsanto and others to develop super-plants

• Upside – Increase food production, Feed more people• Downside – interactions and cross-breeding with wild

strains with indeterminate consequences• Results: Anti-globalization protests around the world

– New World Order or New World Chaos?

Should we mess around with Mother Nature’s Most profound

Molecules?

Problems with measurement

• In 1987 Matej Gaspar was a baby boy born to a Yugoslavian Nurse. The United Nations declared him to be the birth that brought the world’s total population to the 5 billion milestone.

• Do you believe that?

Problems with measurement

• In 1987 Matej Gaspar was a baby boy born to a Yugoslavian Nurse. The United Nations declared him to be the birth that brought the world’s total population to the 5 billion milestone.

• Do you believe that?

How fast is the world’s population growing now?

• Highest % growth ever: ~2.2 %/year 1962-3

• Today’s % growth 1.2 – 1.4 %/year

• 70-80 million per year

• Over 200,000 per day

• 4.1 births/sec – 1.7 deaths/sec = 2.4/sec

Doubling Time The Rule of ’69’

• If you know the % growth rate and assume growth rate is constant then:

• Doubling Time = 69 / % growth rate

• Today: 69 / 1.2 = 57 years

• If growth constant you are alive at 77 then you might be sharing the planet with 12 + billion people

Has the World’s Population ever shrunk?• 1) In the beginning the base population was so small that there were probably many large %age fluctuations• 2) Black Plague in 1400’s hit humans really hard particularly in Europe. This probably caused a real

downturn in global population total• 3) WWI combined with 1918-19 influenza killed over 45 million but probably just slowed growth rather than sent it negative.• Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward” during China’s cultural revolution (1958-60) starved at least 30 million Chinese to death• AIDS in Africa today is killing millions and may decimate 1/3 of African Contient’s population. Nonethless, global total will still increase

The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed more people than the Great War, known today as World War I (WWI), at somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. It has been cited as the most devastating epidemic in recorded world history. More people died of influenza in a single year than in four-years of the Black Death Bubonic Plague from 1347 to 1351. Known as "Spanish Flu" or "La Grippe" the influenza of 1918-1919 was a global disaster.

How fast can a population grow?• A woman in Russia had 69 children from 27

pregnancies. However; the average maximum biological fecundity for women is about 16 children

• Highest group fertility rate was for the Hutterites in Pennsylvania in the 1930s: 12 children / woman

• Global maximum growth rate 2.2% in 1962-3

• Fortunately most people in all ages control their fertility by some means; nonetheless, many argue global population still growing too fast.

Next Lecture:

• How many humans have ever lived?

• How are humans spread out on the globe today?

• What are the demographic patterns on the globe today?