The IJIS Institute The IJIS Institute andandThe George Washington The George Washington

UniversityUniversitypresent…present…

The Role of Information The Role of Information Technology in the Fight Technology in the Fight Against Violent CrimeAgainst Violent Crime

Murder in New Orleans –Murder in New Orleans – The Breakdown of a The Breakdown of a

Justice SystemJustice System

Dr. Peter ScharfDr. Peter ScharfFounder and Executive DirectorFounder and Executive Director

The Center for Society, Law and JusticeThe Center for Society, Law and Justice

Texas State UniversityTexas State University

The ProblemThe Problem What is the relationship between What is the relationship between

investment in criminal justice technologies investment in criminal justice technologies and the homicide rate in US cities?and the homicide rate in US cities?

Is this investment rational in terms of the Is this investment rational in terms of the control of violence and murder in the US?control of violence and murder in the US?

What was the impact of the introduction of What was the impact of the introduction of new criminal justice information new criminal justice information technologies on the reduction of murder technologies on the reduction of murder rates rates in the 1990’s?in the 1990’s?

What will be the impact of the What will be the impact of the next generation of information next generation of information technologies upon violent crime?technologies upon violent crime?

What Does a Murder Cost?What Does a Murder Cost? The murder of a teenager costs about $1 The murder of a teenager costs about $1

million in accrued costs.million in accrued costs. A child disabled by gunshot costs about $2 A child disabled by gunshot costs about $2

million in lifelong social, health costs.million in lifelong social, health costs. Correctional costs are approaching $60 Correctional costs are approaching $60

billion, or $30,000 per inmate.billion, or $30,000 per inmate. The loss of business investment and out-The loss of business investment and out-

migration of talent may be additional costs migration of talent may be additional costs of violent crime.of violent crime.

What would be the impact if these costs What would be the impact if these costs could be largely eliminated?could be largely eliminated?

US Homicide Patterns: 1980-US Homicide Patterns: 1980-20062006

Rise in homicides in Rise in homicides in 1980’s.1980’s.

Increased link to “crack” Increased link to “crack” use.use.

African-American youth African-American youth homicide patterns homicide patterns (Blumstein’s (Blumstein’s interpretation).interpretation).

Decline in 1990’s.Decline in 1990’s. Second wave epidemic Second wave epidemic

evident since 2004.evident since 2004. Why the decrease in the Why the decrease in the

1990’s?1990’s? Why the increase now?Why the increase now?

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1980 1990 2000 2006

Hom/ 100K Af Am NO NYC

High Murder Rate Cities in the High Murder Rate Cities in the US: What are Critical Factors?US: What are Critical Factors?

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80

New Orleans, LA 42.4 43.8 53.3 56.8 54.8 73.6

Compton, CA 48.1 49.2 55.6 46 41.7 67.1

Gary, IN 65.2 79.8 58.4 66.2 52.6 58

Birmingham, AL 32.5 30.1 26.8 35 24.3 44.3

Youngstown, OH 39 41.5 40.2 23.2 28 43.7

Richmond, VA 36.9 35.9 39.5 48.2 47.7 43

Baltimore, MD 40.1 38.7 38.3 42.3 43.4 42

Camden, NJ 30 31.3 41.3 51 61.2 41.2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

New Orleans Case Study:New Orleans Case Study:Violence and Urban DeclineViolence and Urban Decline

Why is the murder Why is the murder rate in New Orleans rate in New Orleans on the rise?on the rise?

What could What could information information technology do to technology do to reverse this trend?reverse this trend?

What are the direct What are the direct and indirect costs and indirect costs of murder in New of murder in New Orleans?Orleans?

Murder and Judicial Outcomes

96

66

47

7

1

None Cleared Arrest Charge Convicted

Crime Mitigation and Differential Crime Mitigation and Differential Criminal Justice Capacity: New Orleans Criminal Justice Capacity: New Orleans

and Houstonand Houston Houston murder Houston murder

suspect has a 4 suspect has a 4 times greater chance times greater chance of being charged and of being charged and a 42 times greater a 42 times greater chance of being chance of being convicted.convicted.

The “hydraulics” of The “hydraulics” of New Orleans-New Orleans-Houston crime Houston crime mitigation.mitigation.

Role of technology.Role of technology.

New Orleans

96

66

47

17

1

None

Cleared

Arrest

Charge

Convicted

Houston (Harris Co.)

72

258

188

132

71

None

Cleared

Arrest

Charge

Convicted

Comparing Murder Rates in Comparing Murder Rates in Cities:Cities:

New Orleans, New York, BostonNew Orleans, New York, Boston New Orleans leads the New Orleans leads the

US.US. New Orleans increases New Orleans increases

rate since 2000 while rate since 2000 while other cities retain other cities retain decreases.decreases.

New Orleans 12 times New Orleans 12 times more dangerous than more dangerous than New York in terms of New York in terms of murder.murder.

New Orleans increases New Orleans increases risk by 2.5 since 1999.risk by 2.5 since 1999.

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Rate

/100K

1990 1995 2000 2006

New Orleans New York Boston

Murder in New Orleans since Murder in New Orleans since Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina

Murders increase in Murders increase in 2006.2006.

New Orleans New Orleans approximates murder approximates murder rate of 1994 – Len Davis rate of 1994 – Len Davis year.year.

New Orleans murder rate New Orleans murder rate appears constant through appears constant through date of presentation.date of presentation.

New Orleans last half New Orleans last half year is 94/100K.year is 94/100K.

Opportunity/crime Opportunity/crime patterns may have patterns may have changed significantly in changed significantly in the wake of the the wake of the hurricane.hurricane.

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Q42005

Q12006

Q22006

Q32006

Q42006

Mur Qt Rate Murd Con

Technology Support and Technology Support and New Orleans Murder RateNew Orleans Murder Rate

New Orleans murder rate is:New Orleans murder rate is:– 7 times that of Boston.7 times that of Boston.– 15 times that of Seattle.15 times that of Seattle.

New Orleans murder rate in last half year New Orleans murder rate in last half year (2006) is 94/100K.(2006) is 94/100K.

Murder rate declined by 60% in late 1990’s:Murder rate declined by 60% in late 1990’s:– 424 homicides in 1994.424 homicides in 1994.– 162 homicides in 1999.162 homicides in 1999.

Murder rate increased by 70% since FY 2000 Murder rate increased by 70% since FY 2000 which was the last year of significant COPS which was the last year of significant COPS MORE/BJA information technology support.MORE/BJA information technology support.

Leadership and Technology:Leadership and Technology:LinkagesLinkages

Conveying Justice System PurposeConveying Justice System Purpose– Values and due processValues and due process– Strategies for restorationStrategies for restoration

Enduring the Effects of CatastropheEnduring the Effects of Catastrophe– Criminal opportunityCriminal opportunity– Social and behavioral changeSocial and behavioral change

Avoiding Breakdown Avoiding Breakdown – Disorder and lossDisorder and loss– Aggravated cause (when criminals figure it out)Aggravated cause (when criminals figure it out)

Can you have quality information Can you have quality information technology without leadership, problem technology without leadership, problem focus, and strategy?focus, and strategy?

Why is New Orleans So Why is New Orleans So Different From Other Cities?Different From Other Cities?

Global hypotheses:Global hypotheses:– Differential underclass effect – criminals Differential underclass effect – criminals

“from Hell.”“from Hell.”– Differential criminal justice system – Differential criminal justice system –

“broke system” – policing, DA, courts, “broke system” – policing, DA, courts, corrections.corrections.

– Migration effects – Diaspora research on Migration effects – Diaspora research on Houston-New Orleans crime mitigation Houston-New Orleans crime mitigation patterns.patterns.

– Low technology/professional investment.Low technology/professional investment.

Significance/Value of Significance/Value of InformationInformation

Significance and value of information Significance and value of information – decision support as it effects – decision support as it effects clearance, arrest, conviction.clearance, arrest, conviction.

Importance of information technology Importance of information technology in facilitating effective information in facilitating effective information sharing.sharing.

Correctional initiatives and the value Correctional initiatives and the value of information in managing offenders.of information in managing offenders.

The Case for Technology The Case for Technology Investment:Investment:

Programs that worked in Boston, Chicago, Programs that worked in Boston, Chicago, and New York in the 1990’sand New York in the 1990’s

Boston:Boston:– Youth murders down from Youth murders down from

191 (1990) to 67 (2006).191 (1990) to 67 (2006).– Project Project CeasefireCeasefire – –

technology.technology.– City-wide approach – City-wide approach –

health, education, health, education, community involvement.community involvement.

– BRIC (Boston Regional BRIC (Boston Regional Intelligence Center).Intelligence Center).

Chicago:Chicago:– Change from over 900 Change from over 900

(1990) to about 400 (1990) to about 400 (2006).(2006).

– Heavy investment in Heavy investment in technology.technology.

– ICAM, CLEAR.ICAM, CLEAR.

New York:New York:– Murders down from 2,400 Murders down from 2,400

(1990) to 530 (2006).(1990) to 530 (2006).– ““ZT”ZT”– Compstat.Compstat.– Reporting kiosks.Reporting kiosks.– Reducing both murders Reducing both murders

and jail cells.and jail cells.

Technology Investment and Technology Investment and Murder ReductionMurder Reduction

Technology investment Technology investment rises from 1994-2000 and rises from 1994-2000 and then declines.then declines.

Murder rates in major cities Murder rates in major cities fall through the 1990’s, fall through the 1990’s, then increase.then increase.

What is the relationship What is the relationship between criminal justice between criminal justice technology investment and technology investment and reduction in murder?reduction in murder?

Leavitt (2003) hypotheses Leavitt (2003) hypotheses on impact of policing, on impact of policing, correctional policies – correctional policies – murder.murder.

Research on COMPSTAT, Research on COMPSTAT, CEASEFIRE, EXILE.CEASEFIRE, EXILE.

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1990 1995 2000 2005

OJP COPS NOLA top 20

High Technology/Low Murder Rate High Technology/Low Murder Rate or Low Technology/High Murder or Low Technology/High Murder

RateRate Does low technology investment mean higher

violent crime rates? Lowest technology investment cities:

– Oakland– New Orleans– Jersey City

Information Technology Information Technology Investment ImpactInvestment Impact

What is the projected What is the projected impact (hypothetical) impact (hypothetical) of $10 million of $10 million information information technology investment technology investment in a high murder city in a high murder city (e.g., New Orleans)?(e.g., New Orleans)?

Model assumes:Model assumes:– 162 murder victims162 murder victims– 324 disabled victims324 disabled victims– $10 million investment$10 million investment– Reductions of 2% - 15%Reductions of 2% - 15%

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2 6 12 15

Murder Disabled Tech Cost

Questions, Thoughts, Ideas:Questions, Thoughts, Ideas:Role of IT in Reversing Murder Risks in US Role of IT in Reversing Murder Risks in US

CitiesCities What is being done to improve or enable What is being done to improve or enable

the sharing of crime information across the sharing of crime information across agencies?agencies?

What is being done to help overcome What is being done to help overcome some of those hurdles?some of those hurdles?

What is being done to bridge the gap What is being done to bridge the gap between IT infrastructure need and between IT infrastructure need and financial resources?financial resources?

What are we doing about emerging IT and What are we doing about emerging IT and applying it to the crime problem?applying it to the crime problem?

Questions, Thoughts, Ideas:Questions, Thoughts, Ideas:Role of IT in Reversing Murder Risks in US Role of IT in Reversing Murder Risks in US

CitiesCities

Your

Turn…