The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

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  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    1/21

    ZOD IGXKAZ ME ALIGKZD AOK@ND M@ EMMJ QDATVIZY K@J

    XMUDVZY I@ ZOD XDMXLDQ VDXTFLIA ME AOI@K

    [i, Ntfm Aoi`k Knviatlztvkl T`iudvqizy;

    Fkacnvmt`j Xkxdv emv Am`edvd`ad m` zod & Zod D`uivm`gd`zq me zod Xmmv, 6:'65

    @mu 68;8, @d~ Jdloi

    QTGGKVY

    Knviatlztvkl xvmjtazim` i` Aoi`k iq gmvd k`j gmvd zovdkzd`dj fy zod aligkzia viqcq,

    k`j gmqz xmmv xdmxld liui`n i` evknild kvdkq fdi`n qd`qiziud zm zomqd aligkzia viqcq kvd

    ekai`n gmvd aoklld`ndq zm ndz vij me xmudvzy. Kz zod qkgd zigd, Aoi`kq nmudv`gd`z

    amggizgd z me aligkzd gizinkzim` xtz xvdqqtvd m` xdmxld liui n i` damzm`d kvdkq

    ~odvd iq dkqy zm fd i`eltd`adj fy aligkzia viqcq.

    Zoiq xkxdv ematqdq m` ijd`zieyi n zod li`cknd kgm`n zod aligkzd aok`nd, emmj

    qdatvizy k`j xmudvzy kllduikzim` i` Aoi`k. Iz i`zvmjtadq om~ aligkzd aok`nd zovdkzd`q

    emmj qdatvizy k`j zomqd lmqqdq kvd am`ad`zvkzi`n m` utl`dvkfld xdmxld, dkqy zm

    dxmqtvd zm `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq k`j lk`j jdnvkjkzim`. Vdlduk`ad me emmj qdatvizy iqqtd

    i` Aoi`k zm mzodv jdudlmxi`n amt`zvidq iq klqm jiqatqqdj t`jdv zod aligkzd aok`nd

    evkgd. Zoiq xkxdv klqm vduid~q zod qzvkzdnidq k`j xmliaidq vdlkzi`n ~izo xmudvzy

    kllduikzim` k`j gizinkzim` k`j kjkxzkzim` zm aligkzd aok`nd, emv dxlmvi`n zod xmliaidq

    vdlduk`ad ~izo utl`dvkfilizy me xmmv xdmxld, xkvziatlkvly xmmv ~mgd`, zm aligkzd

    ukvikfilizy. Iz ei`jq zod ligizkzim` me atvvd`z xmliaidq i` zdvgq me zodiv i`zdnvkzim` me

    aligkzia viqcq am`qijdvkzim`. Om~dudv, evmg akqdq k`klyqiq, iz ei`jq zokz xmmv xdmxld

    okud zodiv m~` kjkxzkfilizy zm aligkzd aok`nd zovmtno knviatlztvkl xvmjtazim`

    kjbtqzgd z, xvmjtazim` jdudlmxgd`z qzvkzdny k`j mzodv klzdv`kziud liudliommj

    kaziuizidq. Qi`ad xmmv xdmxldq kjkxzkfilizy iq ligizdj fy zodiv lm~ ldudl kqqdzq k`j

    i`qtvk`ad, zody `ddj dzdv`kl qtxxmvz jdalkvi`n i` xmudvzy kllduikzim` xmliaidq ~izo

    aligkzia viqcq am`qijdvkzim` k`j gizinkzim` xmliaidq ~izo xmudvzy kllduikzim` i`zdnvkzim`.

    Zoiq xkxdv qtnndqzq aligkzd aok`nd qd`qiziud xmudvzy kllduikzim` qzvkzdnidq k`j

    gizinkzim` xmliaidq i`umlui`n xmudvzy kllduikzim` i` Aoi`k, i`altji`n om~ zm qdz tx k

    amgxd`qkzim` gdaok`iqg emv zod xmmv xmxtlkzim` oinoly dxmqdj zm aligkzd aok`nd

    viqcq k`j odlx zodg zm d`ok`ad zod akxkaizidq me viqc vdjtai`n, qm kq zm d`ok`ad zodiv

    ktzm`mgmtq kjkxzkfilizy zm aligkzd viqcq k`j dligi`kzd zod liudliommj utl`dvkfilizy. Iz iq

    qtnndqzdj zokz xvkaziakl amgxd`qkzim` m` emmj xvmjtazim` emv amxi`n ~izo aoklld`ndq

    evmg aligkzd aok`nd iq klqm udvy igxmvzk`z.

    ; Jv [i Ntfm iq xvmedqqmv me zod Amlldnd me Otgk`izidq k`j Jdudlmxgd`z Qztjidq kz Aoi`k Knviatlztvkl

    T`iudvqizy i` Fdibi`n. Odv gki vdqdkvao i`zdvdqzq kvd2 amggt izy amggm 'xmml vdqmtvadqgk`kndgd z, vtvkl zdao`iakl k`j i`qziztzim`kl i``mukzim`, k`j nd`jdv k`j jdudlmxgd z. Dgkil2{intxmHakt.djt.a`.

    ;

    Zod uid~q dxvdqqdj i` zoiq xkxdv-xvdqd`zkzim` kvd zod uid~q me zod ktzomv/q) k`j jm `mz `dadqqkvily vdeldaz zoduid~q mv xmliaidq me zod Kqik` Jdudlmxgd`z Fk`c /KJF), mv izq Fmkvj me Jivdazmvq, mv zod nmudv`gd`zq zodyvdxvdqd`z. KJF jmdq `mz ntkvk`zdd zod qmtvad, mvini`klizy, kaatvkay, amgxldzd`dqq mv vdlikfilizy me k`y qzkzdgd`z,i`emvgkzim`, jkzk, ei`ji`n, i`zdvxvdzkzim`, kjuiad, mxi`im`, mv uid~ xvdqd`zdj, `mv jmdq iz gkcd k`y vdxvdqd`zkzim`am`adv`i`n zod qkgd.

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    2/21

    ; ZOD IGXMVZK@AD ME KNVIATLZTVKL JDUDLMXGD@Z I@ AOI@K

    ;.; Am`zviftzim` me knviatlztvkl jdudlmxgd`z i` Aoi`k zm emmj

    qdatvizy

    Knviatlztvkl jdudlmxgd`z i` Aoi`k okj qmludj zod xvmfldg me emmj qdatvizy k`jam`zviftzdj zm xmudvzy kllduikzim` k`j `kzim`kl jdudlmxgd`z zm k lkvnd dzd`z. Emmj

    maatxidj xdv akxizk i`avdkqdj evmg 1;> cn-xdvqm` i` ;9?8 zm 1>9.5 cn-xdvqm` i`

    688>. Zomqd xdvemvgk`adq ~dvd fd`deizdj jivdazly fy knviatlztvkl jdudlmxgd`z

    qzvkzdny i` Aoi`k.

    Aoi`kq xdv akxizk nvki` xvmjtazim` klvdkjy vdkaodj 6?4cn i` zod lkzd ;9>8q k`j

    dkvly ;9?8q k`j zod` daddjdj 188cn i` zod emllm~i`n xdvimjq, dadxz emv i` 6881

    ~od` xdv akxizk nvki` xvmjtazim` jdavdkqdj zm 6?5cn. I` 688> Aoi`kq zmzkl nvki`

    mtzxtz vdkaodj 48;.4 gillim` zm`q k`j xdv akxizk nvki` xvmjtazim` vdkaodj 1>9.5cn,

    d`mtno zm gddz zod am`qtgxzim` ldudlq me zod atvvd`z xmxtlkzim`. Kq gdkqtvdj fy

    EKMq emmj qdatvizy qzk`jkvjq, Aoi`kq nvki` mtzxtz zmzklldj 48;.4 gillim` zm`q i`

    688>, `dz advdkl dxmvzq ~dvd >.95 gillim` zm`q k`j `dz qmyfdk` igxmvzq ~dvd 18.?6

    gillim` zm`q ~oild zod qdle'qteeiaid`ay vkzim emv nvki`q /i`altji`n qmyfdk`) daddjdj

    94$, gdk`i`n zokz xdv akxizk nvki` xvmjtazim` ~mtlj fd :88cn ~od` jiuijdj fy k

    xmxtlkzim` me ;.1 fillim`. Zod qzmac am`qtgxzim` vkzim kz zod d`j me 6885 qzmmj kvmt`j

    14$ k`j ~kq dqzigkzdj zm fd :8':4$ kz zod d`j me 688>.

    Aoi`kq advdklq igxmvzq okj kaamt`zdj emv k oino xdvad`zknd, vdkaoi`n 1:$ me zmzkl

    knviatlztvkl igxmvzq evmg ;9>9 zm ;9?;. Om~dudv, zod xdvad`zknd me advdkl igxmvzq i`

    Aoi`kq zmzkl knviatlztvkl igxmvzq klvdkjy jvmxxdj zm ?.5?$ i` 688:. I` zdvgq me zod

    aok`nd i` dxmvzq, zod xdvad`zknd me advdkl dxmvzq i` Aoi`kq zmzkl knviatlztvkl

    dxmvzq okq zddzdvdj tx k`j jm~`, vdeldazi`n zod xvmjtazim` ayald me advdklq i` Aoi`k.

    Zkfld ; Advdklq Igxmvz k`j Dxmvz me Aoi`k

    ;9>9'

    ;9?;

    ;9?9'

    ;99;

    ;999'

    688;

    6881 688:

    Xdvad`zknd me advdklq i` zmzkl knviatlztvkligxmvzq

    Aoi`k 1:.;4 ;9.9? 5.9; 4.;9 ?.5?

    mvlj ;> ;; 9 ? ?

    Xdvad`zknd me advdklq i` zmzkl knviatlztvkldxmvzq

    Aoi`k ?.:: 4.56 ?.;4 ;1.8;

    :.8;

    mvlj ;> ;; 9 ? ?

    Qmtvad2 EKMQZKZ

    ;.6 Am`zviftzim` me knviatlztvkl jdudlmxgd`z i Aoi`k zm xmudvzy

    kllduikzim`

    Knnvdnkzd nvm~zo mvini`kzi`n i` knviatlztvd iq dqzigkzdj zm okud fdd` 1.4 zigdq gmvd

    deedaziud i` vdjtai`n xmudvzy zok` nvm~zo mtzqijd knviatlztvd /^mvlj Fk`c, 688?2 5).

    Gmqz vdad zly, Aoi`kq vkxij nvm~zo i` knviatlztvdzok`cq zm zod omtqdomlj

    vdqxm`qifilizy qyqzdg, zod lifdvklirkzim` me gkvcdzq, k`j vkxij zdao`mlmniakl aok`nd

    okq fdd` lkvndly vdqxm`qifld emv zod jdali`d i` vtvkl xmudvzy evmg 648 gillim` i` ;9>?

    6

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    3/21

    zm ;:.>? gillim` i` 688>, kaamvji`n zm meeiaikl xmudvzy li`d k`j i`amgd i`jiakzmv i`

    Aoi`k.

    ^mvlj Fk`c vdqdkvao /6888) qom~q zokz xmudvzy i`aijd`ad iq li`cdj zm zod xvmxmvzim`

    me knviatlztvd i` zod dam`mgy. Zod xmxtlkzim` i` xmudvzy jdavdkqdq qlm~ly i` zod

    xvmui`adq ~odvd zod knviatlztvkl qokvd i` NJX jdavdkqdq {tiacly. I`izikl li dkvvdnvdqqim` i`jiakzdq zokz k ; xdvad`z jdavdkqd i` knviatlztvdq qokvd i` NJX ~ill ldkj

    zm ;.9 xdvad`z me jdavdkqd i` zod vkzd me vdjtazim` me xmxtlkzim` i` xmudvzy, niud`

    NJX nvm~zo vkzd t`aok`ndj /^mvlj Fk`c, 6888). I` Aoi`k, knviatlztvkl am`zviftzim`

    zm xmudvzy kllduikzim` iq 1.4 zigdq gmvd zok` zokz me mzodv qdazmvq /^mvlj Fk`c, 688?).

    Om~dudv, klm`n ~izo zod dxliaiz kxxdkvk`ad me aligkzd aok`nd igxkazq, emv cddxi`n

    zod am`zviftzim` me knviatlztvd, izq jdudlmxgd`z qomtlj fd vduid~dj ~izo am`qijdvi`n

    aligkzia ekazmvq.

    6 ZOD IGXKAZ ME ALIGKZD AOK@ND M@ KNVIATLZTVD K@JXMUDVZY I@ AOI@K

    Zod igxkazq me aligkzd aok`nd m` knviatlztvkl iq zovmtno zod aok`nd me zdgxdvkztvd,

    vki`ekll, AM6 am`ad`zvkzim`, dzvdgd ~dkzodv k`j aligkzd i`aijd`zq, k`j zod igxkazq

    kvd jieedvd z kgm`n ukvimtq vdnim`q k`j qdkqm`q. Zodvd kvd kjuk`zkndq k`j

    jiqkjuk`zkndq i`jtadj fy aligkzd aok`nd m` knviatlztvkl xvmjtazim` i` Aoi`k, ftz zod

    nd`dvkl igxkazq kvd zd`ji`n zm gmvd `dnkziud.

    6.; Emmj xvmjtazim` eltaztkzim` i`jtadj fy aligkzd aok`nd

    Zod zovdd gki` emmj avmxq xvmjtazim` ~mtlj fd jdavdkqdj fy ;:$p61$6 kgm`n68p48 ydkvq ~izo zod zdgxdvkztvd i`avdkqd k`j ~kzdv k`j kvkfld lk`j jdavdkqd, ie

    `mz i`umlui`n aligkzd kjkxzkzim` qzvkzdny. Zoiq xvdjiazim` iq fkqdj m` lkqz qdudvkl

    ydkvq knviatlztvkl jdudlmxgd`z qiztkzim` /Li` Dvjk dz kl, 688?).

    I` nd`dvkl, zod xvmjtaziuizy me gkbmv emmj avmxq ~ill jdali`d k`j izq i`qzkfilizy ~ill fd

    i`avdkqdj, i eltd`adj fy nlmfkl ~kvgi n /zkfld 6). I`eltd`adj fy zod i`avdkqdj

    zdgxdvkztvd i` amgi`n 68'48 ydkvq, avmxq xvmjtazim` xdvimj ~ill fd qomvzd`dj k`j

    zod emmj xvmjtazim` ~ill fd zovdkzd`dj. Ie ~izomtz zkci`n xmqiziud k`j deedaziud

    gdkqtvdq zm amxd ~izo aligkzd aok`nd, k`j ~izo atvvd`z xvmjtazim` k`j d`qtvd

    am`jizim`q, k``tkl xvmjtazim` me gki` emmj avmxq i` Aoi`k, qtao kq ~odkz, viad k`jgkird, ~ill fd jdavdkqdj fy 1>$ i` zod d`j me qdam`j okle me 6;qz ad`ztvy. Zod

    eltaztkzim` me emmj xvmjtazim` i` Aoi`k ~ill fd i`eltd`adj fy aligkzd aok`nd k`j

    dzvdgd ~dkzodv i`aijd`zq, i`avdkqi`n evmg ;8$ i` zod xkqz zm 68$, dud` zm 18$ i`

    zomqd gmqz t`ekumvkfld ydkvq /Li` Dvjk dz kl, 688?). K`j zod vdjtazim` me emmj

    xvmjtazim` gky okud igxkazq m` xmmv xdmxld ~izo lizzld ei`k`aikl kqqdzq kaatgtlkzim`.

    Zkfld 6 Xvdjiazdj aok`nd me t`iz yidlj me zovdd gki` emmj avmxq i` Aoi`k /yidlj i` 6888

    kq fkqdli`d)

    Qad`kvi AM6 Avmxxi Aok`nd me t`iz Aok`nd me t`iz Aok`nd me t iz

    6 Amgxkvi`n ~izo 8.4 fillim` zm`q emmj xvmjtazim` i` 6884

    1

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

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    m mealigkzd

    edvzilirkzim`

    `nXkzzdv`

    yidlj me viad /$) yidlj me ~odkz/$)

    yidlj me gkird/$)

    6868q" 6848q""

    6868q 6848q 6868q 6848q

    K6

    Gijjld'

    oino

    dgiqqim

    `

    @mzam`qijdvdj

    Vki`'edj

    ';?.4 '68.: ';8.1 '66.?

    ivvinkzdj

    '?.9 ';6.: '4.5 '5.> '4.1 ';;.9

    Am`qijdvdj

    Vki`'edj

    ;4.: ;1.1 9.? ;?.:

    ivvinkzdj

    1.? 5.6 68.8 64.; '8.5 '6.6

    F6

    Gijjld'

    lm~

    dgiqqim

    `

    @mzam`qijdvd

    j

    Vki`'edj

    ';8.6 ';;.: ';;.1 ';:.4

    ivvinkzdj

    ';.; ':.1 '8.4 '6.6 8.6 '8.:

    Am`qijdvdj

    Vki`'edj

    :.4 5.5 ;.; ?.4

    ivvinkzdj '8.: ';.6 ;;.8 ;:.6 '8.; ';.1

    "68;;'68:8""68:;'68>8

    @mzd2 K6 qad`kvim me gijjld'oino dgiqqim` vdeldazq qlm~dv qxddj me vdnim`kl ammxdvkzim` k`j

    kjkxzkzim` zm `d~ zdao`mlmnidq, k`j am`zi`tdj xmxtlkzim` nvm~zo, amvvdqxm`ji`n zm IXAA

    xtfliqodj jkzk me qzkfld AM6 am`ad`zvkzim` me 588 xxg. F6 qad`kvim me gijjld'lm~ dgiqqim`

    vdeldazq vdnim klly d`uivm`gd`zkl igxvmudgd`z, amvvdqxm`ji`n zm IXAA xtfliqodj jkzk meqzkfld AM6 am`ad`zvkzim` me :48'488 xxg.

    Qmtvad2 Li` dz kl. 6884

    Zodvd ~ill fd klqm k qtfqzk`zikl aligkzd aok`nd igxkaz m` ~kzdv vdqmtvadq i` Aoi`k i`

    zod etztvd, ~oiao iq m`d me zod cdy ekazmvq i`eltd`ai`n emmj xvmjtazim`. Eivqzly, ~kzdv

    elm~ gky fd vdjtadj i` `mvzodv` xvmui`adq k`j i` vdnim`q licd @i`nik k`j Nk`qt i`

    etztvd 48';88 ydkvq, ~oilqz i` qmtzodv` xvmui`adq licd Otfdi k`j elm~ Ot`k` gky fd

    i`avdkqdj , ~oiao gdk`q aligkzd aok`nd ginoz i`avdkqd zod xvmfkfilizy me elmmj k`j

    jvmtnoz maatvvd`ad. Qdam`jly, qomvzknd me ~kzdv vdqmtvad i` `mvzodv` kvdkq i` Aoi`k

    ~ill `mz fd fd`deiaikl, xkvziatlkvly i` vdlkzim` zm am`eliaz jtd zm ~kzdv vdqmtvad qomvzkndi` @i`nik k`j Nk`qt, ~oiao ~ill fdamgd gmvd qdudvd, i` zod `dz 48';88 ydkvq.

    Zoivjly, ~izo qtqzki`kfld tzilirkzim` me ~kzdv vdqmtvadq, gmqz xvmui`adq i` Aoi`k ~ill

    gki zki` k fklk`ad fdz~dd` ~kzdv vdqmtvad qtxxly k`j jdgk`j, ftz am eliazq

    fdz~dd` ~kzdv qtxxly k`j jdgk`j ~ill fd d`lkvndj i` I``dv Gm`nmlik, _i`bik`n,

    Nk`qt k`j @i`nik i` etztvd 48';88 ydkvq /Aoi`k @kzim`kl Jdudlmxgd`z k`j Vdemvg

    Amggizzdd, 688>).

    Jiqkqzdvq, i`qdazq, jiqdkqdq jtd zm aligkzd aok`nd ~mtlj fd klqm jivdaz ekazmvq

    zovdkzd` zod jdavdkqd me emmj xvmjtazim`. ^kvgdv ~dkzodv ~mtlj kllm~ zod i`qdazq

    k`j jiqdkqdq nmi`n zovmtno zod ~i`zdv gmvd dkqily, k`j dzd`ji`n zodiv nvm~i`n

    :

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    xdvimj qm kq zm i`avdkqi`n i`aijd`zq me i`qdazq k`j jiqdkqdq k`j d`lkvni`n zodiv

    keedazdj kvdk. Dzvdgd ~dkzodv i`aijd zq i`jtadj fy aligkzd aok`nd ~mtlj fd

    kaamgxk`idj ~izo gmvd jvmtnozq, elmmji`n k`j oino zdgxdvkztvd jiqkqzdvq, ~oiao

    gky okud i`jtadj gmvd lmqdq m` emmj xvmjtazim`.

    I` ekaz, emmj xvmjtazim` ~ill fd i`eltd`adj fy aligkzd aok`nd zovmtno gk`y kqxdazq,kq gd`zim`dj kfmud, i`altji`n zdgxdvkztvd, AM6 am`ad`zvkzim , ~kzdv vdqmtvadq, qmil

    {tklizy, i`qdazq k`j jiqdkqdq i`aijd`zq, ~dkzodv i`aijd`zq, dza. Kz zod qkgd zigd,

    xlk``i`n k`j ktzm`mgmtq kjkxzkzim` kaziuizidq ~ill odlx zm kllduikzd zomqd igxkazq.

    Eintvd ; qom~q zod mudvkll xvdjiakzim` m` emmj qtxxly i` `dz qdudvkl zigd xdvimj,

    ~izo am`qijdvi`n i`zdnvkzdj ekazmvq, i`altji`n qmaim'dam`mgia m`dq.

    Eintvd ; zod aok`nd me emmj qtxxly xdv akxizk i` etztvd ukvimtq zigd xokqdq

    @mzd2 k gdk`q ~izomtz AM6 edvzilirkzim`3 f gdk`q ~izo AM6 edvzilirkzim`. Zoiq xvdjiakzim`

    am`qijdvq zod zdao`mlmny xvmnvdqq, ~oiao iq zokz t`iz emmj xvmjtazim` i`avdkqd ;$ k``tklly i`

    68;8, 8.>$ i` 68;8'6818, qzkfld kezdv 6818. Iz klqm am`qijdvq i`zdv`kzim`kl zvkjd, ~oiao cddxq

    zmzkl igxmvz kz gkigtg me 4$ me zmzkl xvmjtazim`, k`j mzodv gki` avmxq xvmjtazim`, ~oiao

    kqqtgdq qzkfilizy me atvvd`z xlk`zi`n kvdkq k`j yidlj ldudl.

    Qmtvad2 Li` Dvjk dz kl. 688? 2 65

    6.6 Knviatlztvkl qzvtaztvkl kjbtqzgd`z i`jtadj fy aligkzd aok`ndKjbtqzgd`z me knviatlztvkl qzvtaztvd iq m`d me zod kjkxzkzim`q me ekvgdvq k`j mzodv

    vdlduk`z i`qziztzdq zm aligkzd aok`nd, ~oiao i`altjdq zod i`avdkqd me jvmtnoz'vdqiqzk`z

    avmxq, nvdd`omtqd avmxq xvmjtazim` k`j ldkui`n kvkfld lk`j ~kqzd emv mee'ekvg ~mvc.

    Zmndzodv ~izo mzodv ekazmvq, xkvziatlkvly gkvcdzi`n, xlk zi`n qzvtaztvd iq aok`ndj

    vkxijly k`j nvki` xvmxmvzim` i` xlk`zi`n kvdk ~kq aok`ndj evmg ?8$ i` ;9?8 zm 5>$

    i` 6884, ~izo nvki` mtzxtz i`avdkqi`n evmg 16; gillim` zm`q i` ;9?8 zm :?: gillim` zm`q

    i` 6884 /Aoi`dqd Kakjdgy me Qaid`adq, dz kl. 688?).

    Zod knviatlztvkl avmxq xvmjtazim` qzvtaztvd ~ill fd aok`ndj jtd zm aligkzd aok`nd,

    ~izo k aok`nd i` mudvkll knviatlztvkl xvmjtazq kllmakzim , emv dkgxld, vkzim me xlk`zi`n

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    ~odkz, viad k`j gkird i` jieedvd z vdnim`q ~ill fd aok`ndj. Aligkzd aok`nd, ~kzdv

    vdqmtvadq k`j qmaim'dam`mgia jdudlmxgd`z kvd gki` ekazmvq zm i`eltd`ad zod kgmt`z

    me ~kzdv jdgk`j me zovdd gki` avmxq k`j kgmt`z me knviatlztvkl tzilirkzim` me ~kzdv,

    qm zod ivvinkzdj kvdk me zovdd gki` avmxq i` Aoi`k ~ill aok`nd kaamvji`nly. Zod gki`

    aok`nd me knviatlztvkl qyqzdg iq am`altjdj kq emtv kqxdazq. Zod eivqz m`d iq zod

    aok`nd me gtlzixld xlk`zi`n kvdk dzd`jdj zm `mvzo k`j oino klziztjd kvdk. Zod

    qdam`j m`d iq xlk`zi`n kvdk me ~i`zdv ~odkz dzd`jdj zm `mvzo k`j ~dqz. Zod zoivj

    m`d iq gkird i` `mvzodkqz gmudj zm `mvzo k`j dkqz. Zod emtvzo m`d iq zod dzd`zqim`

    me xlk`zi`n kvdk me lkzd gkztvdj ukvidzidq /Li Yibt` dz kl, 68;8).

    ^izo oinodv AM6 dgiqqim`, vkxij xmxtlkzim` nvm~zo k`j dam`mgia nvm~zo, kukilkfld

    ~kzdv emv knviatlztvd ~ill fd jdavdkqdj vkxijly. Kvdk me viad xvmjtazim` ~ill fd

    jdavdkqdj fy :8$ k`j zod vki`'edj gkird xlk`zdj ~ill fd i`avdkqdj fy gmvd zok`

    :8$ /=).

    Qmgd vdqdkvao okq klqm am`altjdj zokz zodvd kvd `dnkziud igxkazq m` avmxq xlk`zdji` damzm`dq ~izo vdlkziudly amml d`uivm`gd`z, emv dkgxld, jdavdkqd me xmzkzm

    xvmjtazim` xlk`zdj i` qmtzodv` gmt`zki` kvdkq me @i`nik /Qt` Ek`n, 688?).

    Vdqdkvao vdqtlz /^k`n Etzk`n, 6886) qom~q zokz knviatlztvkl xlk`zi`n qyqzdg ~ill fd

    aok`ndj zm k lkvnd dzd`z. I` `mvzodkqz vdnim` me Aoi`k, viad xvmjtazim` gmudj zm

    `mvzo qin`ieiak`zly qi`ad ;998q k`j zod xlk`zi`n kvdk me viad i` Odilm`nbik`n xvmui`ad

    i` 6888 ~kq > zigdq me zokz i` ;9?> /^k`n Ytk` dz kl, 6884). Kz zod qkgd zigd, gki`

    gkird xvmjtazim` kvdk ~kq gmudj zm qmtzodv` xkvz i` Odilm`nbik`n xvmui`ad, k`j

    ~odkz k`j qmyfdk` gmudj zm `mvzodv` xkvz, k`j xvmjtazim` me zomqd avmxq xvdedvvi`n

    amml ~dkzodv nmz jdavdkqd /Xk` Otkqod`n dz kl, 688:). Lm~'zdgxdvkztvd amljjiqkqzdv okj fdd` kllduikzdj zm qmgd dzd`z k`j zod xlk`zdj kvdk me lkzd gkztvdj ~izo

    oino yidlj ukvidzidq i`avdkqd /Xk` Zidet, ;99?). Viad xvmjtazim` iq igxvmudj i`

    Aok`nbik`n ~kzdvqodj jtd zm zod igxvmudgd`z me qt`linoz k`j zdgxdvkztvd /IXAA,

    688>).

    6.1 Xmudvzy igxkazq me aligkzd aok`nd

    Zod utl`dvkfilizy aktqdj fy aligkzd aok`nd viqcq iq fdamgi`n m`d me zod gki` aktqdq

    me xmudvzy. Zod xdmxld i` damlmniaklly qd`qiziud kvdkq okud ~dkcdv kjkxzkfilizy zm

    aligkzd aok`nd viqcq, zotq kvd gmvd licdly zm ekll i`zm uiazigq me liudliommj utl`dvkfilizy,

    k`j xmudvzy i`aijd`ad iq oinodv. Zodvd ~dvd 61.54 gillim` kfqmltzdly xmmv xdmxld i`

    Aoi`k i` 6884, gmvd zok` 94$ me ~omg liudj i` vdgmzd kvdkq, gi`mvizy'i`okfizdj

    kvdkq, k`j evm`zidv kvdkq. Zod xmudvzy'qzviacd` kvdkq kvd kll ~izo dzvdgdly evknild

    damlmniakl d`uivm`gd`z /Gi iqzvy me D`uivm`gd`zkl Xvmzdazim`, 688?). Zodvd kvd

    klvdkjy qmgd xvigkvy vdqdkvaodq m` zod ijd zieiakzim` me vdxvdqd zkziud kvdkq i`

    ~oiao aligkzd igxkazq m` cdy damqyqzdgq kvd licdly zm amgxdl qin`ieiak`z aok`ndq i`

    liudliommj xkzzdv`q, k`j ~odvd atvvd`z xmxtlkzim`q kvd xmmv mv mzodv~iqd utl`dvkfld.

    Aoi`dqd Kakjdgy me Qaid`adq /688>) ijd`zieidj emtv vdnim`q me oino utl`dvkfilizy

    i`altji`n2 zod kvij k`j qdgi'kvij `mvzo~dqz /gmqz xkvzq me dkqzdv` _i`bik`n, `mvzodv`

    [i`noki, Nk`qt, @i`nik, Qokk`i, ~dqzdv` I``dv Gm`nmlik)3 zod Zifdz'[i noki

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    xlkzdkt3 zod ckvqz txlk`jq me qmtzo~dqz Aoi`k /xkvzq me Ntiromt, Qiaotk`,

    Aom`n{i`n)3 k`j jd`qdly xmxtlkzdj xdvi'tvfk` amkqzkl rm`dq. Mekg k`j mzodvq

    /6889) ijd`zieidj zod damzm`dq k`j xmudvzy qzviacd` amt`zidq /Nvdd`xdkad, Mekg,

    68893 Li Romt, Qt` Vtmgdi, Nkm Li`n dz kl., ;99>). Zod Xvmnvkg emv Xvmzdazim` me zod

    @kzim`kl Damlmniaklly Evknild Rm`dq, iqqtdj fy zod Gi iqzvy me D`uivm`gd`zkl

    Xvmzdazim` me Aoi`k, liqzq dinoz `kzim`kl damlmniaklly evknild rm`dq, `kgdly, zod

    @mvzodkqz emvdqz'nvkqq damzm`d, zod @mvzo knviatlztvd'k`igkl otqfk`jvy damzm`d, zod

    @mvzo~dqz jdqdvz'mkqiq damzm`d, zod Qmtzo vdj'qmil oilly k`j gmt`zki`mtq damzm`d,

    zod Qmtzo~dqz ckvqz k`j jdqdvzieiakzim` damzm`d, zod Qmtzo~dqz gmt`zki`mtq

    knviatlztvd'k igkl otqfk`jvy damzm`d, zod [i`noki'Zifdz Xlkzdkt amgxld dvmqim`

    damzm`d k`j zod amkqzkl ~kzdv'lk`j zvk`qizim` damzm`d /Gi`iqzvy me D`uivm`gd`zkl

    Xvmzdazim`, 688?). Evmg eintvd ;, ~d ak` qdd zod xmudvzy qiztkzim` iq gmvd qdvimtq

    klqm i` zodqd damzm`dq.

    Eintvd ;. Xdvad`zkndq me vtvkl xmmv xmxtlkzim` i` ? gkbmv damzm`dq

    Qmtvad2 zod qzkziqziaq k`j aklatlkzim` evmg @kzim`kl Ftvdkt me Qzkziqziaq me Aoi`k

    I` nd`dvkl, aligkzd aok`nd ~ill fvi`n jivdaz k`j i`jivdaz igxkazq m` xmudvzy. Zod jivdaz

    igxkazq kvd vdlkzi`n ~izo dzvdgd ~dkzodv jiqkqzdvq i`jtai`n lmqdq m` knviatlztvd,

    kqqdzq me liudliommj, k`j i`evkqzvtaztvd. Zod i`jivdaz igxkazq kvd evmg zovdkzd` zm

    dam`mgia nvm~zo. Zodvd kvd gmvd zovdkzd`q zm xmmv kvdk, ~oiao vdlidq gmvd m`

    vki`ekll k`j mzodv `kztvkl vdqmtvadq, ~izo izq ~dkc kjkxzkzim` akxkaizy me ei`k`ad,

    zdao`mlmny k`j i`qziztzim`. Gmvd igxkazq kvd klqm nmi`n zm damzm`dq jtd zm zomqd

    kvdkq oinodv qd`qiziuizy zm aligkzd ekazmvq. I`zdv kvdkq me xmudvzy k`j damzm`dq fvi`n

    oino aoklld`ndq zm xmudvzy kllduikzim`.

    Aligkzd viqcq kvd gk`iedqzdj i` zod kfmud'gd`zim`dj damzm`dq kq evd{td`z `kztvkl

    jiqkqzdvq ~oiao kvd fdamgi`n zod gkbmv aktqd me xmudvzy k`j ldkj zm k oinodv

    xmudvzy i`aijd`ad i` zodqd kvdkq. Li Bikyk` /6884) xmi`zdj mtz zokz zodvd kvd zovdd

    jivdaz aktqdq me qliji`n'fkac i`zm xmudvzy, `kgdly, `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq, qdvimtq jiqdkqdq

    k`j xmxtlkzim` xvdqqtvd. Kfmtz >8$ me qlijd'fkac i`zm xmudvzy iq aktqdj fy `kztvkl

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    jiqkqzdvq. @id Rom`n{it dz kl. /688>) xmi`zdj mtz zokz kaamvji`n zm zod qtvudy me qlijd'

    fkac i`zm xmudvzy am`jtazdj fy @kzim`kl Ftvdkt me Qzkziqziaq i` 6881, 44$ me ekvgdvq

    qliji`n fkac i zm xmudvzy i` zokz ydkv okj fdd` oiz fy `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq. ^od`

    k`klyri`n zod aktqdq me vtvkl xmmv xmxtlkzim` i` Aoi`k, Ntm Ym`nrom`n /6886) emt`j

    zokz okvqo `kztvkl am`jizim`q k`j evd{td`z `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq ~dvd zod vmmz aktqdq me

    xmudvzy. _id Ym`nnk`n /688>) i`jiakzdj zokz `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq gkjd iz ~mvqd i` zod

    xmudvzy'qzviacd` kvdkq ~izo utl`dvkfld damqyqzdgq k`j lm~ dam`mgia jdudlmxgd`z

    ldudl, zotq k uiaimtq aivald ~kq emvgdj i` k zvkac me jiqkqzdvq xmudvzy gmvd

    qdudvd jiqkqzdvq gmvd qdvimtq xmudvzy, k`j `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq ~dvd zod gkbmv aktqd

    me qlijd'fkac i`zm xmudvzy. Qztjidq m` zod vdlkzim`qoix fdz~dd` vtvkl xmudvzy k`j

    elmmjq k`j jvmtnoz akvvidj mtz fy Rok`n _ikm k`j mzodvq qom~dj zokz vtvkl xmudvzy

    i`aijd`ad ~mtlj i`avdkqd fy 6'1$ ~izo dudvy ;8$ i`avdkqd i` zod jkgknd zm

    knviatlztvkl xvmjtazim` gkjd fy elmmjq k`j jvmtnoz. I` k ekgi`d ydkv, zod vdlkxqd vkzd

    i` vtvkl kvdkq i` Ntiromt Xvmui`ad iq kq oino kq mudv 68$. Xi`naok`n Amt`zy i` zod

    [i`fk gmt`zki`mtq kvdkq ~kq oiz fy qdudvd `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq i` ;991, k`j zod nvki`yidlj jdavdkqdj fy 1;.4$ zokz ydkv3 aklatlkzdj fy zod `tgfdv me xmmv omtqdomljq

    k`j xmmv xmxtlkzim`, zod vdlkxqd vkzdq ~dvd 98$ k`j ?4$ vdqxdaziudly. I` zod

    knviatlztvkl kvdkq i` Fiqok` Zm~` zokz ~kq m`d me zod ~mvqz'oiz vdnim`q, zod vdlkxqd

    vkzd dud` vdkaodj tx zm 94$. I` fvide, jiqkqzdv'i`jtadj xmudvzy iq k gkbmv edkztvd me

    vtvkl xmudvzy i` Aoi`k.

    Etvzodvgmvd, qmgd kjbtqzgd`z me knviatlztvd amtlj d`ok`ad zod kjkxzkzim` akxkaizy

    zm aligkzd aok`nd, ftz ~izomtz xmmv xdmxldq i`umludgd z. Ekailizy knviatlztvd

    jdudlmxgd`z iq k amgfi`kzim` me xlk``i`n k`j ktzm`mgmtq kjkxzkzim` qzvkzdny i`

    Aoi`k k`j iz iq gmvd ~izo xlk``i`n aokvkazdvq i` ~dqzdv` kvdk me Aoi`k, ~odvd zodekvgdvq `ddj gmvd qtxxmvz evmg mtzqijd emv kjbtqzi`n zodiv xvmjtazim` qzvtaztvd.

    Om~dudv, jtvi`n jdudlmxi`n kjkxzkfilizy i` qmgd akqdq, xmmv xdmxld ~dvd daltjdj

    /Fm ;).

    Fm ;. Daltqim` me xmmv xmxtlkzim` evmg xlk``i`n kjkxzkzim` kaziuizidq

    Ftbik Uillknd i` Qokk`i Xvmui`ad ematqdq m` udndzkfld nvdd`omtqdq i` izq i`jtqzvikljdudlmxgd`z. Dkao udndzkfld nvdd`omtqd ak` xvmjtad k `dz i`amgd me kfmtzVGF;8, 888 dudvy ydkv. Zotq, zod nvdd`omtqdq kvd udvy xmxtlkv ~izo ekvgdvq. Zodvdkvd klzmndzodv 15 nvdd`omtqdq i` zod uillknd `m~. Zod xvmbdaz et`jq kvd evmg zodqxdaiklirdj lmk`q emv xmudvzy kllduikzim`. Zod nvdd`omtqd xvmbdaz ~kq ~m` fy zod

    uillknd vdlkziudly dkqily, qi`ad zod uillknd iq k xmudvzy kllduikzim` xmi`z jdqin`kzdj fyzod jdxtzy qdavdzkvy me zod gt iaixkl Xkvzy amggizzdd k`j nvdd`omtqdq kq k`igxmvzk`z gdk`q emv avdkzi`n ~dklzo i` zod uillknd. Om~dudv, zod zovdqomlj emv zoiqxvmbdaz iq vkzodv oino emv ekvgdvq. K nvdd`omtqd iq kfmtz ;8 gdzdvq ~ijd k`j ~izo kld`nzo me 48';88 gdzdvq. K zmzkl me VGF;:,888 iq `ddjdj zm ftilj k 48'gdzdv'lm`nnvdd`omtqd k`j VGF;>,888';?,888 emv k ;88'gdzdv'lm`n m`d. ^izo m`ly VGF9,888qtfqijirdj lmk`q xvmuijdj fy nmudv`gd z, k ekvgdv okq zm xky VGF4,888'9,888 emv knvdd`omtqd. Fdqijdq, od klqm okq zm xky kfmtz VGF;48 emv zdao`iakl ntijk`ad xdvydkv. Zodvdemvd, xmmv omtqdomljq ak``mz xkvziaixkzd i` zoiq xvmbdaz. Emv dkgxld, kuillkndv `kgdj Xdi Nd`akiq ekgily okq emtv gdgfdvq k`j iq kz zod gijjld ldudl i`zdvgq me ei`k`aikl kfilizy. Zod ekgily qmlj k` m i` 6881 k`j fmvvm~dj evmg evid`jq k`jlmk` qokvcq /~izo k` i`zdvdqz me 18$), k`j nmz `dkvly VGF68, 888 ei`klly, qm zokz zody

    amtlj xkvziaixkzd i` zod xvmbdaz me ginvkzim` k`j vdlmakzim`. Zomtno zody okj k

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    gdzok`d zk`c k`j vt``i`n ~kzdv kz omgd kezdv zod xvmbdaz, zod ekgily ak``mz keemvj kudndzkfld nvdd`omtqd k`y gmvd.

    Qmtvad2 zod Qzkzd Amt`ail Ldkji`n Nvmtx Meeiad me Xmudvzy Kllduikzim` k`j Jdudlmxgd`z,

    Qy`zodqiq Vdxmvz me Xvmnvkg emv Xmudvzy Kllduikzim` k`j Jdudlmxgd z i` Vtvkl Kvdkq me

    Aoi`k, 6889.

    I` qmgd dzvdgd ~dkzodv dud`zq, odklzo emmj k`j ~kzdv amtlj `mz fd qdatvdj, dud`

    ~izo i`'zigd qklukzim`, qm odklzo me xmmv xmxtlkzim` ~mtlj fd zovdkzd`dj. Jiqdkqdq

    jtd zm lm~dv vdqiqzk`z kfilizy k`j xmqqifld gkl`tzvizim` kvd xmqqifld maatvvd`ad.

    6.: Vdlduk`ad me emmj qdatvizy i` Aoi`k zm mzodv jdudlmxi`n

    amt`zvidq

    Emmj qdatvizy vdgki`q aoklld`ni`n emv gmqz amt`zvidq i` Keviak, niud` lm~ knviatlztvkl

    nvm~zo, vkxij xmxtlkzim` nvm~zo, ~dkc emvdin` daok`nd dkv i nq, k`j oino

    zvk`qkazim` amqzq i` li`ci`n jmgdqzia k`j i`zdv`kzim`kl gkvcdzq. Igxmvzk`z aoklld`ndqxdvqiqz emv knviatlztvd i` mzodv vdnim`q kq ~dll. ^odvd nvm~zo i` `m`knviatlztvkl

    qdazmvq okq kaadldvkzdj, dqxdaiklly i` Kqik, zod vdkllmakzim` me lkfmv mtz me knviatlztvd

    iq lknni`n, am`ad`zvkzi`n xmudvzy i` vtvkl kvdkq k`j ~ijd`i`n vtvkl tvfk` i`amgd

    jiqxkvizidq. Zoiq fdamgdq k gkbmv qmtvad me xmliziakl zd`qim`q k`j i`qdatvizy. ^odvd

    knviatlztvdq qokvd i` zod dam`mgy okq qovt`c qin`ieiak`zly, kq i` Lkzi` Kgdviak,

    am``dazi`n xmmv vtvkl omtqdomljq zm knviatlztvdq `d~ jy`kgia qtfqdazmvq, dizodv kq

    qgkllomljdvq mv kq ~mvcdvq, vdgki`q k aoklld`nd /^mvlj Fk`c, 688?2 65). Qm emmj

    qdatvizy i` Aoi`k gdk`q kz ldkqz zod qzkfilizy me m`d eiezo xmxtlkzim`q i` zod ~mvlj

    amtlj fd cdxz k`j zod ~mvlj emmj gkvcdz ~m`z fd eltaztkzdj zmm gtao. Etvzodvgmvd,

    zod dxdvid`adq me Aoi`k m` knviatlztvkl jdudlmxgd`z k`j emmj qdatvizy xvimvizy amtlj

    fd qokvdj gmvd ~izo mzodv jdudlmxi`n amt zvidq, klm`n ~izo Aoi`kq kij xmliaidq

    aok`nd, d.n. emmj kij zm Keviak` amt`zvidq.

    1 I@ZDVLI@CKND ME XMUDVZY KLLDUIKZIM@ K@J GIZINKZIM@

    K@J KJKXZKZIM@ ZM ALIGKZD AOK@ND EVMG I@QZIZTZIM@KL

    XDVQXDAZIUD

    Ekai`n ~izo zovdkzd` me aligkzd aok`nd m` knviatlztvkl xvmjtazim` k`j emmj qdatvizy3

    zodvd kvd lm`n'zdvg aoklld`ndq emv igxvmui`n knviatlztvkl kjkxzkfilizy k`j jded`ji`n

    akxkaizy zm aligkzd jiqkqzdvq. Iz iq klqm k aoklld`nd emv zomqd xmmv xdmxld liui`n i`

    evknild kvdkq zm kjkxz zm aligkzd aok`nd i`jtadj qiztkzim` k`j cddx zodiv liudliommj

    qzkfld k`j qtqzki dj. Gizinkzim` k`j kjkxzkzim` kvd z~m kqxdazq i` amxi`n ~izo

    aligkzd aok`nd aoklld`ndq. Gizinkzim` iq k lm`n'zdvg k`j kvjtmtq zkqc, k`j

    kjkxzkzim` zm aligkzd aok`nd iq k vdkliqzia k`j dgdvnd`z zkqc. Aoi`k okq xvmgiqdj m`

    vdjtai`n nvdd`omtqd nkq dgiqqim` ~izo d`ok`ai`n xmliaidq m` qkui`n d`dvny k`j

    mxzigiri`n i`jtqzvikl qzvtaztvd3 k`j kz zod qkgd zigd, iz klqm ematqdq m` igxvmui`n

    kjkxzkfilizy zm aligkzd aok`nd zovmtno damlmniakl xvmzdazim` xvmnvkg k`j

    i`evkqzvtaztvd am`qzvtazim` m` xvdud`zi`n k`j kllduikzi n jiqkqzdvq /@JVA, 688>).

    ^okz zomqd xmliaidq okud fvmtnoz zm xmudvzy ~oild qmlui`n xvmfldgq jtd zm aligkzd

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    aok`nd iq k aviziakl {tdqzim` i` zdvgq me xmmv xdmxldq liudliommj. M` zod mzodv ok`j,

    xmudvzy kllduikzim` xmliaidq ~dvd lkqzi`n emv qdudvkl jdakjdq qi`ad k emvgkl Dinoz'

    Qdud` Xmudvzy Kllduikzim` Qzvkzdny i` ;9?> k`j xlkydj k` igxmvzk`z vmld m` vdjtai`n

    xmudvzy i` Aoi`k. ^od` ekai`n gmvd k`j gmvd qdvimtq qiztkzim` i`jtadj fy aligkzd

    aok`nd k`j qmgd xvdqqtvdq evmg zomqd xvmgiqdq me gizinkzim` aligkzd aok`nd, iz iq

    t`kumijkfld zm ematq m` zod et`azim` me xmudvzy kllduikzim` qzvkzdny i` Aoi`k m`

    vdjtai`n aligkzia viqcq.

    1.; Xmudvzy kllduikzim` qzvkzdny k`j aligkzia viqcq

    Xmudvzy kllduikzim` qzvkzdnidq i` Aoi`k i` zod 6; ad`ztvy vdjtad xmudvzy zovmtno k`

    i`zdnvkzdj uillknd xlk``i`n k`j i`jtqzviklirkzim` kxxvmkao, zmndzodv ~izo ukvimtq

    knviatlztvkl k`j vtvkl jdudlmxgd`z et`jq evmg zod nmudv`gd`z. Zodvd kvd qin`ieiak`z

    vdqtlzq me kllduikzdj xmudvzy gd`zim`dj i` xvduimtq am`zd`zq. Om~dudv, zod damlmniakl

    utl dvkfilizy me xmmv xdmxld liui`n i` zomqd evknild kvdkq iq ndzzi`n ~mvqd jtd zm

    aligkzia viqcq, ~oiao okud `mz fdd` i`zdnvkzdj i`zm atvvd`z xmudvzy kllduikzim` qzvkzdny.

    Zoiq xkxdv k`klyqdq qdudvkl qxdaieia xmudvzy kllduikzim` xmliaidq ~izo aligkzd aok`nd

    am`qijdvkzim , d.n. giavm'avdjiz, i`jtqzviklirkzim`, i`zdnvkzdj uillknd xlk``i`n, k`j emmj

    emv ~mvc.

    Me zod gk`y zyxdq me xmudvzy kllduikzim` lmk`q, qgkll lmk`q ak` jivdazly vdkao

    ekvgdvq, zotq fmmqz zod jiudvqizy me i`amgd qmtvadq me xmmv ekvgdvq fy akxizkl k`j

    zdao`mlmniakl qtxxmvz k`j avdkzd am`jizim`q emv jiudvqieidj ~kyq me liui`n k`j akxizkl

    kaatgtlkzim` emv ekvgdvq /Fm ;). Jiudvqieiakzim` me liudliommj iq k vkzim`kl mxzim` emv

    ekvgdvq zm kumij viqc, ~oilqz akxizkl kaatgtlkzim` ak` odlx zodg jdkl ~izo finndv

    viqcq. Giavmei`k`ad xvmbdazq i` qmgd xlkadq klqm xvmuijd lmk`q ~od` alid`zq qteedvevmg t`dxdazdj jiqkqzdvq, zm gizinkzd viqc igxkazq. Zod amgxkviqm` fdz~dd` xvmbdaz

    uillkndq k`j mvji`kvy uillkndq qom~dj zokz zod fmvvm~dv evmg zod xvmbdaz amtlj fdzzdv

    qzk`j qdudvd `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq zok` ekvgdvq ~om okj `mz xkvziaixkzdj i` zod xvmbdaz,

    k`j ~kq ldqq keedazdj i` am`qtgxzim` ldudl fy jiqkqzdvq /^t Ntmfkm dz kl., 6881).

    Om~dudv, ekvgdvq ak``mz kumij lmqqdq me gkzdvikl kqqdzq i` t`dxdazdj jiqkqzdvq

    ~od` giavmei`k`ad xvmbdazq kvd i` xvmnvdqq. T`jdv qtao aivatgqzk`adq, iz xvdud`zq

    ekvgdvq evmg emvgi`n `d~ nvmtxq k`j fmvvm~i`n evmg zod xvmbdazq3 zodvdemvd, zod

    liudliommj utl`dvkfilizy me ekvgdvq ak``mz fd vdjtadj k`j zodqd ekvgdvq ~ill vdgki`

    xmmv. I` mzodv ~mvjq, giavmei`k`ad okq izq m~` ligizq i` gizinkzi`n zod `dnkziud deedazq

    me aligkzd aok`nd viqcq m` xmmv xmxtlkzim`, emv dkgxld, iz ak``mz zkcd zod xlkad me

    giavm'i`qtvk`ad ~od` qdudvd `kztvkl jiqkqzdvq maatv.

    Fm 6. Vmld me zod giavmei`k`ad i` vdjtai`n liudliommj utl`dvkfilizy me ekvgdvq

    Ekvgdvq i` Rodntytk` Uillknd me Lintk` Zm~` i` _i`nvd` Amt`zy me NtiromtXvmui`ad vdalkigdj ~kqzdlk`j k`j xlk`zdj mudv 1,888 yd~q ;4 ydkvq knm. Fdemvdzody vdadiudj k`y qgkll lmk`q, zody okj zm atz jm~` k`j qdll zvddq kq zodiv gki`qmtvad me i`amgd. Om~dudv, dkao yd~ amtlj fd qmlj m`ly kz k xviad me VGF48'688,ftz zod xviad ~mtlj i`avdkqd zm VGF;,888 dkao ie iz iq atz jm~` kz zod knd me 68 k`jkfmud. Zok`cq zm qgkll lmk`q, zody fdnk` zm xlk`z udndzkfldq 1 ydkvq knm, zodi`amgd evmg ~oiao okq nvkjtklly fdamgd zod gki` qmtvad. Zod ekvgdvq jm `mz atzjm~` zvddq k`y gmvd3 i`qzdkj, zody ak` vdqdvud zod yd~q kq k qmtvad me etztvd

    ;8

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    i`amgd. @dudvzodldqq, zody qzill okud zm atz jm~` yd~q zokz kvd qtxxmqdj zm fd k`kqqdz vdqdvud, ~od` zod yidlj me udndzkfldq iq keedazdj fy xlk`z jiqdkqdq k`j i`qdazxdqzq aktqdj fy aok`ni`n zdgxdvkztvd.

    Qmtvad2 Lit Yk`li dz kl. Akqd Qztjy m` I`eltd`ad me Giavmei`k`ad m` Vdjtai`n Liudliommj

    Utl`dvkfilizy me Ekvgdvq. Vtvkl Dam`mgy, 688? /:).

    I`jtqzvikl xmudvzy kllduikzim` kaziuizidq kig zm fmmqz zod qtqzki`kfld liudliommj me

    ekvgdvq k`j amggt`izidq. Zody kvd fy `kztvd xvmuiji`n ekvgdvq ~izo odlx qigilkv zm

    klzdv`kziud liudliommjq zm kumij aligkzd viqcq. @m`dzodldqq, zodqd kaziuizidq ak``mz

    vdkao zod xmmv xmxtlkzim` ~izomtz kjkxzkfilizy, jtd zm zod ligizq me ukvimtq am`jizim`q.

    Kq kq kemvdgd`zim`dj i` xvduimtq zdz, ekvgdvq ~om ak``mz vdadiud kij emv i`jtqzvikl

    jdudlmxgd`z okud `m aomiad ftz zm nm m` ~izo zodiv zvkjizim`kl xlk`zi`n, k`j zodiv

    lmqqdq ak``mz fd amgxd`qkzdj ~izo zod yidlj me nvdd`omtqd avmxq. Gmvdmudv, zod

    kfmud'gd`zim`dj giavmei`k`ad et`jq kvd ligizdj, zotq ak``mz qtxxmvz klzdv`kziud

    liudliommjq. Fdqijdq, i`jtqzvikl xmudvzy kllduikzim` xvmgmzdq qakld xvmjtazim`3 zod` m`zod m`d ok`j, qakld xvmjtazim` ak` d`ok`ad zod akxkaizy me vdqxm`ji`n zm `kztvkl

    viqcq i`altji`n aligkzd viqcq, ie iz iq ntkvk`zddj fy knviatlztvkl ekailizidq, qtao kq

    nvdd`omtqdq emv udndzkfldq /Fm 6). ~oild m` zod mzodv ok`j, iz gky vdjtad zod

    jiudvqizy me xvmjtazim`, k`j ekvgdvq ~ill fd gmvd dkqily dxmqdj zm viqcq ~izo

    t`xvdjiazkfld ~dkzodv mv ~od` xviadq eltaztkzd.

    Fm 1. Ekailizy knviatlztvd iq fd`deiaikl zm vdjtai`n zod liudliommj utl`dvkfilizy zm

    aligkzd

    Kgm`n zod 58 omtqdomljq qtvudydj i` Ntk`zk` Uillknd me @i`nik Oti Ktzm`mgmtq

    Vdnim`, m`d omtqdomlj iq me lm~dqz utl`dvkfilizy /gki`ly d`nkni`n i` zvk`qxmvzkzim`),? me gdjitg utl dvkfilizy k`j zod mzodv 4; me oino utl dvkfilizy. Mudv 48$ /4omtqdomljq) me zod ? gdjitg'utl`dvkfilizy omtqdomljq xlk`z gmvd zok` : ukvidzidq meavmxq, k`j kll 4 me zodg xlk`z z~m jvmtnoz'vdqiqzk`z avmxq /qt`elm~dv k`j akqzmv'milxlk`z) k`j zovdd nvdd`omtqd avmxq /atatgfdv, zmgkzm k`j ~kzdvgdlm`). Qt`elm~dvk`j akqzmv'mil xlk`z okud vdlkziudly qzkfld okvudqzq dud` i` jvmtnoz mv ~izo lizzld vki`,k`j okud vdklirdj oinodv xviadq kq dam`mgia avmxq i` vdad`z ydkvq. Kq zod lmaklnmudv`gd`z xvmgmzdq zod `m`'qzkxld emmj qtxxly xvmbdaz k`j zklcq kfmtz zod fd`deizqme udndzkfldq k`j evtizq zm aok`nd zod jidz me zod lmakl xdmxld, zod gkvcdz i`udndzkfldq k`j evtizq cddxq dxk`ji`n, qm ekvgdvq ~izo nvdd`omtqdq fd`deiz k lmzevmg zod xvmadqq. Zok`cq zm zod ~kzdv'qkui`n k`j deedaziud knviatlztvkl xlk`zi`nqyqzdg, ekvgdvq ak` kumij zod qiztkzim` i` ~oiao zod mzodvq kvd zvkxxdj, ~od` yidlj meavmxq jdali`dq mv dud` vdqtlzq i` ekiltvd jtd zm jvmtnoz k`j zod vdjtazim` me ~kzdvaok``dldj evmg zod Ydllm~ Viudv.

    Qmtvad2 zod qtvudy me Qmaikl Kjkxzkzim` zm Aligkzd Aok`nd am`jtazdj fy Amlldnd me

    Otgk`izidq k`j Jdudlmxgd`z Qztjidq, Aoi`k Knviatlztvkl T`iudvqizy i` Gkvao 68;8.

    @dudvzodldqq, qmgd xmudvzy kllduikzim` xmliaidq k`j gdkqtvdq, qtao kq i`udqzgd`z i`

    dgxlmygd`z nd`dvkzim` kq k gdkqtvd me xmudvzy kllduikzim`, iq xmqiziud i` d`ok`ai`n

    kjkxzkfilizy zm aligkzd aok`nd zm qmgd dzd`z i` xvkaziad, dud` zomtno zody m`ly xky

    kzzd`zim` zm kaadqq zm i`evkqzvtaztvd emv zod xmmv xmxtlkzim` i nd`dvkl, ftz niud `m

    qxdaikl am`qijdvkzim` zm kjkxzkzim` zm aligkzd viqcq. Zod gki` zmml iq zm xvmgmzd k

    gmvd deedaziud amgfi`kzim` me ukvimtq `kztvkl vdqmtvadq zovmtno zod dqzkfliqogd z me

    ;;

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

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    ukvimtq i`evkqzvtaztvdq, qm zokz vdqmtvadq ak` fdzzdv xlky zodiv vmld. Zkfld ; qom~q

    zokz zod ~mvc'vdlide et`jq okud `m jivdaz yidljq i` ivvinkzim` k`j ~kzdv am`qdvuk`ay,

    ekvglk`j akxizkl am`qzvtazim` k`j qgkll i`zdnvkzdj ~kzdvqodj gk`kndgd`z, ~oild

    qgkll'qakld ivvinkzim` k`j ~kzdv am`qdvuk`ay k`j ekvglk`j akxizkl am`qzvtazim` avdkzd

    am`jizim`q zm igxvmud zod t`fklk`adj jiqzviftzim` me vki`ekll k`j zdgxdvkztvd k`j emv

    zod xmmv xmxtlkzim` zm tzilird `kztvkl vdqmtvadq qtao kq lk`j, ~kzdv k`j zmzkl

    zdgxdvkztvd i` k gmvd deeiaid`z gk``dv /Fm :). Vmkj am`qzvtazim` i` amt zidq,

    zm~`qoixq k`j uillkndq d`kfldq zodg zm d`zdv i`zm zod gkvcdz. Jvi`ci`n ~kzdv xvmbdazq

    emv otgk` k`j liudqzmac igxvmud zod liui`n am`jizim`q me xmmv omtqdomljq jivdazly.

    Fm :. Vmld me ~kzdv am`qdvuk`ay ekailizidq i` vdjtai`n zod utl`dvkfilizy zm aligkzd viqcq

    Zod xdv akxizk kvdk me ivvinkzdj lk`j iq 6.4 gt i` Ntk`zk` Uillknd me @i`nik OtiKtzm`mgmtq Vdnim` kezdv zod uillknd aok``dldj ~kzdv evmg zod Ydllm~ Viudv ;8 ydkvqknm, k`j izq nvki` mtzxtz okq fdd` i`avdkqi`n qzdkjily. Amgxkvdj ~izo uillkndq ~izom`ly kvkfld jvy lk`j, Ntk`zk` Uillknd ak` vdqxm`j gmvd kjd{tkzdly zm k aok`ndkfld

    aligkzd. Uillkndvq tqd zod gkird nvm~` m` ivvinkzdj lk`j kq eddj emv liudqzmac k`jxmtlzvy, zotq qkui`n VGF?,888 m` eddj amqzq dudvy ydkv, ~oiao ak` gkcd tx zodivqomvzknd me akqo i`amgd k`j odlx zodg jdudlmx k`igkl otqfk`jvy.

    Qmtvad2 zod qtvudy me Qmaikl Kjkxzkzim` zm Aligkzd Aok`nd am`jtazdj fy Amlldnd me

    Otgk`izidq k`j Jdudlmxgd`z Qztjidq, Aoi`k Knviatlztvkl T`iudvqizy i` 68;8.

    Nd`dvklly qxdkci`n, atvvd`z xmudvzy kllduikzim` qzvkzdnidq k`j vdlduk`z xmliaidq k`j

    gdkqtvdq jij `mz xky kzzd`zim` m` vdjtai`n aligkzd aok`nd viqcq, ~oiao gky daltjd

    xmmv xdmxld ~om gky fd gmvd qd`qiziud k`j ~izo oinodv utl`dvkfilizy zm aligkzd

    aok`nd. Om~dudv, qmgd deedaziud gdkqtvdq amtlj fd kq vdedvd`ad ~od` kjbtqzi`n

    qzvkzdnidq emv `dz zd` ydkvq xlk`.

    1.6 Xmliaidq me gizinkzim` k`j xlk``dj kjkxzkzim` zm aligkzd

    aok`nd k`j utl`dvkfilizy me xmmv xdmxld

    Zod nmudv`gd`z me Aoi`k okq jdudlmxdj k `kzim`kl qzvkzdnia vdqxm`qd zm aligkzd

    aok`nd. Zod @kzim`kl Jdudlmxgd`z Vdemvg Amggiqqim` /zod ad`zvkl dam`mgia

    xlk``i`n k`j ammvji`kzim` gi`iqzvy) okq zkcd` vdqxm`qifilizy emv ammvji`kzi`n `kzim`kl

    aligkzd vdqxm`qdq, k`j okq kqqdgfldj k gtlzi'qdazmvkl kjuiqmvy @kzim`kl Ldkji`n

    Nvmtx m` Aligkzd Aok`nd, ~izo vdxvdqd`zkziudq evmg ;8 `kzim`kl gi`iqzvidq, i`altji`n

    Qaid`ad k`j Zdao`mlmny, D`uivm`gd`z, D`dvny, ^kzdv Vdqmtvadq, Knviatlztvd, k`j

    zod Aoi`dqd Kakjdgidq me Qaid`ad k`j me Knviatlztvkl Qaid`adq. Zoiq Ldkji`n Nvmtx

    am`zviftzdj zm jvkezi`n Aoi`kq @kzim`kl Aligkzd Aok`nd Xvmnvkggd, vdldkqdj fy zod

    @kzim`kl Jdudlmxgd`z Vdemvg Amggiqqim` i` Bt`d 688> /Aoi dqd Kakjdgy me

    Qaid`adq, 688?2 ;:). Xlk``i`n emv kjkxzkzim` vdgki`q kz k udvy dkvly qzknd. Gizinkzim`

    me aligkzd aok`nd okq vdadiudj gtao gmvd xvmgi`d`z kzzd`zim` k`j vdqdkvao

    i`udqzgd`z, k`j lm~ akvfm` jdudlmxgd`z qzvkzdnidq, vd`d~kfld d`dvny zdao`mlmnidq

    k`j d`dvny deeiaid`ay i`udqzgd zq kvd kll i`avdkqi n vkxijly. @dudvzodldqq, iz iq

    jieeiatlz zm ei`j zod xmudvzy i`zdnvkzim` i` zod `kzim`kl aligkzd aok`nd xvmnvkggd. I`

    xvkaziad, zodvd kvd gk`y xmliaidq vdlkzi`n ~izo gizinkzim` k`j xlk``dj kjkxzkzim` zm

    aligkzd aok`nd, qtao kq fim'nkq xvmbdazq i` vtvkl kvdkq, vdztv`i`n ekvglk`j zm emvdqzq,

    ;6

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

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    et`jq emv emvdqz damlmniakl fd`deiz amgxd`qkzim`, vdztv`i`n zod xkqztvd zm nvkqqlk`jq,

    ~dzlk`j xvmzdazim`, k`j am`qzvtazim` me `kztvd vdqdvudq. Om~dudv, zodqd xmliaidq

    qmgdzigdq in`mvd izq vdlduk`ad zm zod utl`dvkfilizy me xmmv xdmxld. Zoiq xkxdv btqz

    vkiqdq m`d akqd evmg `kztvd vdqdvud xmliay kq dkgxld zm dxlki` zod in`mvk`ad.

    Zod xmliaidq emv `kztvd vdqdvudq okud gtlzixld i`eltd`adq m` zod xdmxld am`adv`dj. I`zod gk`kndgd`z me gk`y `kztvd vdqdvudq, zodvd kvd gdkqtvdq me damlmniakl

    amgxd`qkzim` k`j klzdv`kziud liudliommjq, i`qzdkj me qigxld xvmzdazim` emv `kztvd.

    Om~dudv, zodqd qtxxmvzi`n xmliaidq niud lizzld am`qijdvkzim` zm zod liudliommj

    utl`dvkfilizy me zod xmmv xmxtlkzim` ~om, zodvdemvd, kvd daltjdj zm qmgd dzd`z. Fm

    ? jdqavifdq zod qiztkzim` i` k `kztvd vdqdvud i` zod Qk`bik`n Xlki`, ~odvd zod uillkndvq

    lmqd zodiv i`amgd evmg avmx ekvgi`n kq ~dll kq zod xmliay qtfqijidq emv nvki` nvm~i`n.

    Fm 42 Damlmniakl xvmzdazim` k`j mxxmvzt`izy amqz me ekvgdvq liui`n i` `kztvd vdqdvudq

    Zod `kztvd vdqdvud okq `mzoi`n zm jm ~izo tq. @m fd`deizq kz kll. I` zod xkqz, xdmxld

    evmg Ym`ned`n Uillknd k`j Bikod Zm~` ~d`z i` emv ekvgi`n i` zod `kztvd vdqdvud. Zodyamtlj xlmtno kezdv xkyi`n k qgkll kgmt`z me gm`dy zm Vkmod Lk`j Kjgi`iqzvkzim`/jtvi`n ;9?9 k`j ;99:, ekvgdvq amtlj fvi`n ~dzlk`j t`jdv atlziukzim` kezdv xkyi`n zodvdalkgkzim` eddq me VGF48-gt) emv zod kxxvmukl. Zod lk`j, kq kxxvmudj fy zod lk`jkjgi iqzvkzim`, iq t`vdamudvkfld k`j ak` vdadiud z~m qtfqijidq /jivdaz k`jamgxvdod`qiud nvki qtfqijidq) kq ~dll. Ftz `m~, zod ~dzlk`j iq t`jdv zodgk`kndgd z me zod emvdqzvy kjgi`iqzvkzim`, k`j ekvgdvq kvd `mz kllm~dj zm xlmtno zodlk`j. /K` i`zdvuid~ ~izo k uillkndv me Ym`ned`n Uillknd)

    Qmtvad2 ^k`n Lifi` dz kl., 68892 ;8>';8?

    Gtao kzzd`zim` okq fdd` xkij zm damlmniakl amgxd`qkzim` ~oiao iq dud` jdqavifdj i`

    zod xvmnvkg emv damzm`dq. Iz iq udvy igxmvzk`z zm vdlkzd zod ~kyq me amgxd`qkzim` k`jdamlmniakl amgxd`qkzim` zm vdjtai`n zod liudliommj utl`dvkfilizy me xmmv ekvgdvq.

    Fdqijdq zod diqzi`n damlmniakl xmliaidq, zod xmliay xvmgiqdq me gizinkzi`n aligkzd

    aok`nd okud `d~ vd{tivdgd`zq, ~oiao kvd almqdly vdlkzdj zm vtvkl liudliommjq. Zod

    gdkqtvd me vdjtai`n akvfm` qmtvadq kigq zm xvmgmzd zod tqi`n me fimetdl k`j aldk`

    d`dvny i` vtvkl kvdkq. K`j zod gdkqtvd me i`avdkqi`n akvfm` qd{tdqzvkzim` i`altjdq

    keemvdqzkzim` k`j d`ok`ai`n zod xvmjtaziuizy me ~mmjlk`j k`j nvkqqlk`jq. Zodvd ~ill

    fd k qdvidq me gkavm xmliaidq amgi`n klm`n ~izo zomqd gdkqtvdq. Ei`k`aikl Vdqdkvao

    I`qziztzdq me Gi`iqzvy me Ei`k`ad jij emvdakqzi`n k`klyqdq m` akvfm` zk xmliay. Zod

    vdqtlz me zoiq jy`kgia vdqdkvao ei`jq zokz jiqavdzim`kvy i`amgd i` vtvkl kvdkq ~ill

    jdavdkqd nvkjtklly k`j zokz zod kaatgtlkzdj jdavdkqdj xdvad`zknd ~ill fd 8.:: k`j

    1.6; vdqxdaziudly kz gi`igtg k`j gkigtg zk vkzdq, k`j zokz i` tvfk` kvdkq ~ill fd

    8.64 k`j ;.96 vdqxdaziudly /Qt Gi`n dz kl. 6889). Kll zodqd gdkqtvdq ~ill i`avdkqd zod

    liudliommj utl`dvkfilizy me zod xmmv xmxtlkzim` zm qmgd dzd`z ~izoi` k advzki` xdvimj me

    zigd. Zodvdemvd, ~d qomtlj xvmuijd zod xmmv xmxtlkzim` ~izo ukvimtq zvk`qedv

    xkygd`zq, i`altji`n zdao`iakl qtxxmvz.

    1.1 Ktzm`mgmtq kjkxzkzim` zm aligkzd aok`nd me xmmv xdmxld

    Xmmv xdmxld okj fdd` kjkxzdj zm aligkzd aok`nd kll zod zigd ftz ekadj ligizkzim`q emv

    vdjtad zodiv utl`dvkfilizy ~izo zodiv m~` kqqdzq am`jizim`q.

    ;1

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    14/21

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    15/21

    me gkird, k`j qt`elm~dv i`qzdkj me aodqz`tz. I` akqdq me qdudvd jvmtnoz, ekvgdvq

    okud zm niud tx xlk`zi`n k`y avmxq. Fdqijdq, `m`'knviatlztvkl i`amgd iq zdgxmvkvy

    ~od` ekvgdvq nm mtz zm ~mvc. Zody vdztv` zm zod uillknd emv knviatlztvkl kaziuizidq i`

    ftqy ekvgi`n qdkqm`q.

    Zod akqd me ^tgi`n i` Ntk`ni Rotk`n Ktzm`mgmtq Vdnim` qom~q zokz jvmtnozk`j elmmjq kvd am`qijdvdj fy zod ekvgdvq zod finndqz jieeiatlzy zody okud dudv

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    zod `dnkziud deedazq me viqcq. Kaamvji`n zm zodiv dxdvid`ad k`j dxdazkzim`q, ekvgi`n

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    ~kq zod gmqz deedaziud, k`j djtakzim` emv aoiljvd` ~kq k` deedaziud lm`n'zdvg

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    jdaiqim`'gkci`n k`j i`avdkqi`n zod `tgfdv me nvkri`n odvjq ~dvd am`qijdvdj zm fd

    deedaziud lm`n'zdvg qzvkzdnidq zokz amtlj d`ok`ad viqc'vdqiqzi`n akxkaizy. Ekvgi n

    omtqdomljq klqm am`qijdvdj zokz jiudvqieidj emvgq me i`amgd k`j qzvd`nzod`dj ekgily

    zidq ~mtlj fd deedaziud i` zod qmvz'vt`.

    Zod qtvudy am`jtazdj fy Aod` Bid dz kl. /6889) i` Gkjtm Amt`zy i` Qk`nbik`nytk`

    vdnim` me [i`noki Xvmui`ad i`jiakzdj zod jddxdv igxkazq me aligkzd aok`nd m` zod

    igxmudviqogd`z i` zoiq vdnim`. Jtvi`n ;9>9 k`j ;9?;, Gkjtm Amt`zy fmkqzdj zod

    ;4

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    16/21

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    m~` kjkxzkfilizy. Zod qztjidq i` @i nik Oti Ktzm`mgmtq Vdnim` qom~dj zokzekvgi`n omtqdomljq i` zod `mvzodv` ivvinkzdj kvdk omxdj zokz zod nmudv`gd`z amtlj

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    k`j i`xtz me knviatlztvkl gkzdviklq /^t Yk`btk`, 688?).

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    zovmtno gtztkl i`qtvk`ad kqqmaikzim`q. Aoi`k I`qtvk`ad Vdntlkzmvy Amggiqqim` okq

    ;5

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    17/21

    `mziadj zod i`eltd`ad me aligkzd aok`nd m` zod i`qtvk`ad i`jtqzvy. I` 688>, zody

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    me kjuk`adj amggt`iakzim` zdao`mlmny zm odlx ekvgdvq k`j eiqodvgd` zm xvdxkvd emv

    gdzdmvmlmniakl jiqkqzdv.

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    6889).

    : VDAMGGD@JKZIM@Q M@ VDQDKVAO K@J XMLIAIDQ

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    aok`nd i` evknild kvdkqZoiq ci`j me kazim` vdqdkvao ~ill ematq m` lmakl kjkxzkzim` kaziuizidq zokz klvdkjy

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    ;>

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    18/21

    :.6 Qxdaieia amgxd`qkzim` xmliaidq m` d`amtvkni n knviatlztvkl

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    ;?

  • 8/8/2019 The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in the People's Republic of China - paper

    19/21

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    68

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