THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN BEEF

CATTLE INDUSTRY Animal Change Workshop on Livestock and

Climate Change, UP

22 September 2014

Prof Michiel Scholtz ARC-Animal Production Institute, University of the Free State

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

• Predicted climate change

• Feedback loop

• Effects of climate change on beef

production

• Mitigation of greenhouse gases from beef

cattle

• What can we do? – final considerations

and remarks

PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGE

The world’s average temperature has risen

by about 0.8 oC since 1900. By 2100, it will

rise by another 1.1 to 6.3 oC, depending

upon the levels of greenhouse gases (GHG)

emitted

12 years of the 21st century so far (2001-

2013) rank among the 14 warmest in the

132-year period of record.

(according to the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change)

Prediction for Southern Africa 2021-2050 relative to 1961-1990 (Engelbrecht, CSIR)

Temperature Rainfall

PREDICTIONS

TEMPERATURE

Increases in average

temperature of 1.5 to 2oC,

ranging from 0.5 at

seaboard to 3oC in eastern

Namibia and western

Botswana

More heat spells

RAINFALL

General drier southern

African region, except for

central regions and

Eastern Cape → wetter.

Significant reduction of

more than 40 mm/annum in

the eastern parts of

Limpopo and Mpumalanga,

the south-western Cape

and the Cape south coast.

Variable rainfall

FEEDBACK LOOP

Beef production both contributes to climate

change and suffers from the consequences.

Global warming has twofold implications for

the beef industry (food security).

1.Continuous increase in ambient temp. -

direct and indirect effects on the animal

2.Responsibility of the beef cattle industry to

limit the release of greenhouse gases (GHG) or

the carbon footprint, in order to ensure future

sustainability.

DIRECT EFFECT OF CLIMATE

CHANGE ON BEEF FARMING

Ambient temperature has the largest direct effect on

beef cattle. Normal comfort zone between 4 and 24°C.

In temperature rises above this, it is important that

cattle that are adapted to these higher temperatures

are used.

High temperatures:

• decrease in feed intake in order to reduce digestive

heat production

• reduce grazing time (animals do not graze in hot

midday hours)

• sweating and water intake increases

INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE ON BEEF CATTLE

Rainfall and water supplies

Changes in ecosystem and biome composition,

woody species encroachment and alien plant

invasion > grazing potential & feed supply.

Nutritional stress: Warmer environments, natural

pasture has both lower nutritional value and lower

tiller density than in temperate regions (climate

change will have the greatest impact on ruminant

species)

ALTERED PATTERNS OF ANIMAL

DISEASES

1. Emergence of new diseases

2. Change in prevalence of existing diseases,

particularly those spread by biting insects.

Climate also plays a vital part in determining the

distribution of ticks, which are responsible

for East Coast fever, Heartwater,

Gallsickness & Red Water.

Prevalence and intensity of tick infestation have

been associated with temperature and

humidity.

MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE

GASES FROM BEEF CATTLE

Perspective on greenhouse gases

from livestock

Major GHG’s related to livestock

production converted to CO2

equivalent and its characteristics

GHG CO2 CH4 N2O

Atmospheric

concentration

49 18 6

Atmospheric lifetime

(years)

100-200 12 114

Heating potential

1 23 296

CONTIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK TO

GLOBAL WARMING

Global methane sources

SIMPLE ARITHMETICS

Atmospheric concentration of methane

(CH4) is 18 %

Enteric fermentation responsible for 16% +

animal waste for 5% of global CH4

= 21% CH4

21% of 18% = ??

SIMPLE ARITHMETIC'S

Atmospheric concentration of methane

(CH4) is 18 %

Enteric fermentation responsible for 16% &

animal waste for 5% of global CH4 = 21%

21% of 18% = 4%

All ruminants (cattle, sheep, goats, game) +

monogastrics (poultry, pigs) -> responsible

for 4% of global methane (14%- latest FAO

Total GHG value)

How can we:

Adapt beef cattle to climate change?

Reduce the GHG’s from beef cattle?

This can be done through:

• improved production efficiency

• breeding to reduce the carbon footprint of

livestock products

• implementing new or adapted climate smart

production systems

• Use of appropriate / adapted genotypes

Improve beef production efficiency

in South Africa through:

1. Improved fertility – current calving

percentages

2. Improved cow efficiency – kg calf weaned

/LSU

3. Post weaning efficiency – select for

residual traits

4. Effective crossbreeding

5. Direct selection for low methane (yield)

Improve beef production efficiency

in South Africa through: 1. Improved fertility

Current calving percentages

All stud breeds in performance recording: 76%

Commercial herds in performance recording: 83%

Total commercial sector: 61%

Emerging sector: 48%

Communal sector: 35%

NEED: defined breeding seasons, breeding

objectives (scrotal circumference, days to calving)

Improve beef production efficiency in

South Africa through: 2. Improved cow efficiency

Kg calf weaned/LSU as a breeding objective to

improve cow efficiency

LSU: equivalent of an ox with a weight of 450kg and

a weight gain of 500g per day on grass.

Developing breeding objectives to increase

kg calf weaned per constant cow unit

Improve beef production efficiency

in South Africa through: 3. Select for residual traits

RFI (residual feed intake): decrease intake

without affecting growth

RDG (residual daily gain): improve growth

without affecting feed intake

Ranking of animals for selection on RFI &

RDG - different rankings → selection index

Low RFI animals produce up to 28% less

methane

Improve beef production efficiency

in South Africa through: 4. Effective crossbreeding

Analyses of Vaalharts crossbreeding data:

Cow productivity (Kg calf weaned / LSU) can

be increased by up to 21% through properly

designed crossbreeding systems, thereby

reducing the carbon footprint of beef

production

Improve beef production efficiency

in South Africa through: 1. Measurement of methane with Lazer

Methane detector

Methane production (ppm-m) measured

in 4 Bonsmara heifers on different feeds

Animal Natural

veld

Total mixed

ration

Oats

grazing

1 29.48 (2) 26.67 (2) 28.50 (3)

2 35.83 (3) 30.54 (3) 23.58 (2)

3 38.53 (4) 45.19 (4) 35.22 (4)

4 27.08 (1) 22.75 (1) 18.07 (1)

Methane production (ppm-m) of 12 month

old Jersey, Nguni and Bonsmara heifers

utilizing different feed sources

Natural

veld

Total mixed

ration

Oats

grazing

Forage

Sorghum

Bons 32.7 a,b ± 5.3 31.3 a,b,c ± 9.8 26.3 c,d ± 7.3 15.3 e ± 1.6

Jersey 25.8 c,d ± 1.1 36.6 a ± 3.4 30.7 b,c ± 7.0 14.5e ± 1.7

Nguni 30.6 b,c ± 1.4 26.4 c,d ± 4.0 24.6 d ± 3.0 16.5e ± 2.8

RESEARCH TOPICS (industry supported)

Did genetic change improve production

efficiency?

Genetic studies on alternative feedlot traits (RFI &

RDI)

Total production cycle measurement of the carbon

and water footprint of beef cattle (x)

Effect of weather patterns on weaning weight of

beef calves

Innovative breeding objectives to improve

efficiency in extensive cow-calf production

systems

Crossbreeding effects with specialized sire and

indigenous /adapted dam lines

I must acknowledge my students