The Indispensable Partner? Turkey in the Evolving Triangulation with the United States and Europe
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Summary: Turkey remains an indispensable partner of the United States and the EU in a strategically relevant region. On a host of issues, however, the reason why Turkey may be currently seen as “indispensable” is more often a negative calculation about the harm an increasingly vulnerable and dealigned Turkey could do if it became fully self-absorbed on issues like energy and security. European and transatlantic partners should support Turkey in reducing its negative exposure to Middle Eastern instability, so that it can become the fully-edged partner it has the potential to be. Analysis The Indispensable P ar tner? T urkey in the Evolving Triangulation with the United Stat es and Europe by Emiliano AlessandriMay 29, 2015 W, DC • B• PB• B• AB• WOFFICES Analysis Introduction Despite recent questions surrounding its allegiance to Western deense, and the continuing cynicism accom- panying an elusive EU membership quest, urkey remains in important respects an indispensable partner othe United States and the EU in a stra- tegically relevant region. Discussions at the 11 th meeting othe rilateral Strategy Group — a GMF-led orum created to promote expert discussions together with, rather than on or about, urkey — undoubtedly reiterated this key tenet. On a host oissues, however, the reason why urkey may be currently seen as “indispensable ” is no longer, or not as much, the countr y’ s unique contribution to W estern interests. Rather, it is more ofen a nega- tive calculation about the harm an increasingly vulnerable and dealigned urkey could do iit b ecame ully sel- absorbed, thus alling short in acting as the “bridge” it has been typically likened to. In other words, urkey unortunately seems increasingly relevant or the liabilities it can create rather than or the assets it could provide. Between Wish and Reality Te first topic odiscussion at the rilateral Strategy Group meeting was energy, a field in which urkish assets have always been quite limited but Ankara’s ambition was prominently on display, at least so until a ew years ago. But urkey’s aspiration to emerge as an energy “hub ” (with related price- setting power) has yet to materialize. Ianything, this prospect looks increas- ingly improbable in light opersistent rivalries and given the many conflicts plaguing the neighborhood, which until recently urkey thought it was destined to control. On one hand, urkey’s internal needs have significantly raised domestic consumption, deepening the econ- omy’ s already he avy dependency on oreign sources. On the other, urkey has be en largely played by the geopolitics oenergy rather than the other way around (a airly predict- able outcome given t he country’s lack oan energy source oits own).
The Indispensable Partner? Turkey in the Evolving Triangulation with the United States and Europe
