The Power Situation

Low Shire Flows and Impact on Service Delivery

Presentation Outline Generation and Recent Trends Shire Flows and Lake Level Status Efforts made to conserve water Present State of Tributaries Shire River Flow Status of Generation Capacity Vs Demand Projections of Lake Level and Shire River water flow Interventions Conclusion

Generation and Recent Trends Total Installed Generation Capacity – 361MW including

10MW Peaking Plants installed at Kanengo in Lilongwe. 346MW of this capacity is installed on the Shire River This 346MW comprises Nkula Power Station 124MW,

Tedzani Power Station 92.56MW and Kapichira Power Station 129MW. This constitutes 95% of the total capacity

The last two rainy seasons have been particularly unfavourable with very low rainfall

The Low Rainfall is believed to be caused by an El Nino effect

However, the water situation is compounded by the effects of environmental degradation which have changed many perennial rivers into seasonal rivers

Shire Flows and Lake Level Status The Lake Malawi Level is at its Lowest in the past 15 Years as shown

below

Shire Flows and Lake Level Status

Shire Flows and Lake Level Status It is apparent from the graph that the Lake Malawi Level is

at its lowest. It failed to rise to a normal level in the past rainy season due to low rainfall. The low rainfall meant that Shire River Tributaries which

normally provide 40 to 60% of the water during the rainy season for power production were flowing very low and the catchment area could not support their flow into the dry season as is usually the case

During the rainy season power production was largely dependent on water flow from Lake Malawi

Currently, the Shire River flow is fully dependent on the Lake Malawi

In addition, the Lake Malawi outlet and a part of the river channel is silted up, raising the river bed in critical areas like the Lake Malawi outlet

Efforts Made To Conserve Water Regulation of the Shire River Flow at

Liwonde Barrage Ensured there was no spillage at the Power

Stations even during the rainy season. Dredging of the ponds to improve water

storage capacity is in progress Load Management

The Present State of Tributaries Shire River flow is also normally supported, during rainy season and a

good part of the dry season, by the flow from the tributaries These tributaries have flowed very low from the past rainy season ;

some have already dried up and some are running extremely low and will dry up soon

Rivirivi River – Picture under the Bridge

Lirangwe River – Upstream view

SHIRE RIVER FLOW Below is the flow trend for 2015 and 2016

SHIRE RIVER FLOW The following are the key observations from the two flow trend

curves: The Shire River flow from the last rainy season to date is lower

than last year (the curves have a gap of 50-60 cumecs) The level at which the flow of the river was at end of August

2016 was reached in November 2015 last year The Shire River flow control was lost towards end of August

2016 while last year the flow control was lost in November 2015

The level has been low despite the best effort by the Corporation and Water Resources Department to conserve water

Projections for Lake Level and Shire River Water Flow Using a tool supplied by the Consultant for the Liwonde

Bridge Upgrade a projection was made of expected flows at the current flow rate

The Lake Malawi level drops to 373.13masl by early December 2016 which translates to 90 cumecs

This in turn corresponds to 135MW of power generation, which is a reduction of 67% from the total capacity. This would be a critical situation which would make it impossible even to provide any service to industry and even some essential services

Operating at the current flow of 140 cumecs is unsustainable

Currently a discharge of 115 cumecs is recommended for sustainability

Status of Generation Capacity Vs Demand

The low flow of the Shire River means a reduction in water available for power generation

At 139 cumecs flow at end of August 2016, the average power generation was 200MW

This has left a capacity shortfall of 150MW, in a power system which was already constrained before the Shire River flow problem

This means daily loadshedding for domestic and commercial customers

Industry and essential services like Water Boards, and Government referral hospitals are always prioritised, where possible and practical.

The loadshedding is undertaken on rotational basis

INTERVENTIONS Operational Strategy

As already indicated at the current operating flow of 139 cumecs, there will be enormous operating difficulties in the months of September to December 2016. Hence, ESCOM determined that it will be prudent to reduce the operating flow from 139 cumecs to 115 cumecs. This reduces the generation capacity from 200MW to 165MW.

Continue dredging operations of the reservoir at Nkula to recover storage capacity lost to silt.

Improvements in load management programs by continuously reviewing loadshedding programs and engaging industry on best options fitting production

INTERVENTIONS continued Demand Side Management initiativesInitiative Objective ProgressPower factor correction

Reduce system losses due to low power factor mainly from industry

Several meetings held with industry to create awareness on impact of poor power factor and how power factor can be improved. The Corporation is also pursuing increasing penalties for low power factor

Energy saver bulbs (LEDs)

Reduce energy consumption through use of energy efficient lighting

Procurement of the LED Lamps is in progress

Load shifting This is intended at moving industrial operations within the peak demand period to reduce pressure on the system

Agreements to shift load with some companies signed and more discussions are in progress

Communication Create awareness to customers about the power situation and to provide information on how customers can conserve energy

Meetings with customer taking place, adverts placed in electronic and print media, all stakeholders briefed

INTERVENTIONS continued Cross Border connection with Mozambique – using

existing infrastructure previously used to supply Mozambique Border towns. Power Purchase Agreement being reviewed by Mozambique

Installation and commissioning of diesel gensets in Lilongwe (10MW) and 6MW in Mzuzu - 10MW already installed in Kanengo and is operational. Procurement of further 10MW for Lilongwe and 6MW for Mzuzu in progress

Procurement of Emergency Power Facilities - procuring emergency power from providers of mobile generating units. Proposal was prepared and is under review by different stakeholders

LONG TERM INTERVENTIONS Planning for Kammwamba coal fired thermal

power plant project is at an advanced stage – First phase of 300MW to be operational by 2019

Malawi Mozambique interconnection has kick started

Malawi Zambia interconnection through Chipata being negotiated

Independent Power Producers (IPPs) involvement. There are 22 and the anticipated total generation capacity is 565MW. 3 of the IPPs are at PPA stage. Out of the 22, one is in hydro and the rest are in solar.

CHALLENGES IN LOAD MANAGEMENTUnpredictable customer behaviour

resulting in varying power consumption pattern.

Unforeseen faults on the system.Mixture of domestic, commercial

and industrial customers on the same line.

Duration of the load shedding.

WHAT IS EXPECTED OF THE CUSTOMERSSwitching off appliances when not

in use.Using energy efficient appliances.Industrial customers to improve

power factor correction.

ConclusionThe water flow on Shire River is likely to

get worse till we receive enough rains.Load shedding to increase in the months

to come.Appeal to customers to conserve energy. Implementation of mitigation measures

to minimize impact of the power shortage.

Thank You