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The Middle East After the Iraq WarTHE IRAQ EFFECT

Frederic Wehrey Dalia Dassa Kaye Jessica WatkinsJeffrey Martini Robert A. Guffey

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The Iraq effect : the Middle East after the Iraq War / Frederic Wehrey ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4788-5 (pbk.) 1. United StatesForeign relationsMiddle East. 2. Middle EastForeign relationsUnited States. 3. Iraq War, 2003Influence. 4. Middle East Strategic aspects. I. Wehrey, Frederic M.

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iii

Preface

The research reported here was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force, Direc-tor of Operational Planning and Strategy (A5X), Headquarters United States Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Pro-gram of RAND Project AIR FORCE for a fiscal year 2008 study Iraq Effects: Emerging Threats to U.S. Interests in the Greater Middle East. This monograph should be of interest to U.S. security policymakers, military planners, and analysts and observers of regional affairs in the Middle East and Central and South Asia.

The goal of this work is to advance understanding of the regional implications of the Iraq War by offering an assessment of trends, threats, and opportunities in the Middle East, drawing from exten-sive field-based research and primary sources. The monograph covers balance-of-power realignments, focusing on Iranian activism, Arab diplomatic disarray, and Turkeys new prominence; shifting local per-ceptions of U.S. credibility and the increased roles of such extraregional powers as China and Russia; the wars effects on sectarianism, ethnic activism, and political reform; and how the conflict has shaped future terrorist strategy, ideology, and tactics. By referring to an Iraq effect, we do not suggest that the war is the sole driver behind these impor-tant regional dynamics. Rather, we use the expression as a framework or a lens to capture the ways in which key U.S. policy challengesthe stability of pro-U.S. regimes, terrorism, and Iranian power, to name a fewhave been affected by the Iraq War, either directly or indirectly.

iv The Iraq Effect: The Middle East After the Iraq War

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v

Contents

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iiiFigures and Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixSummary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiAcknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxvAbbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxvii

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1The Effects of the Iraq Conflict Range Broadly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Previous Analyses Have Not Captured the Full Implications of

These Shifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4The Future Trajectory of Iraq Will Not Significantly Alter Our

Analyses of Current Regional Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7The U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense Must Anticipate

and Prepare for These New Realities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10This Monograph Surveys the Multiple Dimensions of the Iraq Effect . . . . . 12Organization of This Monograph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Our Research Methodology Is Grounded in Primary Sources and

Fieldwork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

CHAPTER TWO

An Altered Strategic Landscape: The Shifting Regional Balan