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KeyPoint Partners, LLCOne Burlington Woods Drive, Burlington, MA 01803Tel 781.273.5555 Fax 781.272.8408
KeyPoint Partners provides retail research consulting services ranging from preliminary desktop assessments to comprehensive evaluations which integrate field investigation and quantitative analysis for a variety of retail location and store types. The heart of our research superiority is our powerful, proprietary GRIID™. Is there a custom retail market research project we can do for you? Call Bob Sheehan, Vice President of Research at 781.418.6248, or email him at [email protected].
Read our daily news blog, the KeyPoint Retail RoundUp; our monthly KeyPoints retail newsletter; and our annual KeyPoint Reports at KeyPointPartners.com
Custom Retail Market Research
Property ManagementRetail Leasing & Tenant RepresentationInvestment SalesConstructionResearch & Consulting
Methodology: The data for this study includes all public retail space in the study area except for a few exclusions discussed below. The information in our data-base has been compiled from a variety of sources. A member of KeyPoint Partners’ research staff has visited each store/shopping center in order to verify and/or acquire the necessary information. The area for each space is obtained from sources deemed reliable, such as the owner or leasing agent, is paced off by our researchers or otherwise measured. Retail categories and SIC Codes are obtained from a leading business database, InfoUSA, when available. Each entry is field verified or determined by our research staff. In general, public retail space is characterized as all space currently, or most recently, utilized in selling or renting retail goods and/or services to the public. There are no size restrictions for stores or shopping centers. Certain retail classifications are excluded, including au-tomobile dealerships, gasoline service stations, automobile repair shops and quasi-retail services, such as stock brokers, real estate agents, insurance agents, etc., unless such establishments are located in shopping centers containing typical retail tenants. In some cases wholesale or quasi-retail establishments have been included in the database if information from InfoUSA or our field research indicates that goods and/or services are being offered to the public from the location. Some establishments available to the public but typically serving primarily the needs of other users of a facility, such as a cafeteria in an office building or a beauty salon located inside a hotel, may also be excluded. Demographic information used in this study was provided by Scan/US.
Retail Real Estate Trends & Analysis 2015Eastern MA/Greater Boston
KeyPoint Partners, LLCOne Burlington Woods Drive, Burlington, MA 01803Tel 781.273.5555 Fax 781.272.8408
The KeyPoint Report©2015 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA
The KeyPoint Report©2015 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA
Special Section: 10-Year Restaurant Report
On the covers: Wegmans, one of several major grocers who expanded in the region
The KeyPoint Report©2015 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA
This KeyPoint Report examines changes in sup-ply, vacancy and absorption, retailer activity, and market composition by store size and retail cat-egories during the year ending May 2015. This-study includes 189 cities and towns, representing more than 3,500 square miles (44% of Massa-chusetts’ land area) and approximately 5 million people (76% of the state population).
KeyPoint Partners’ GRIID™ database maintains detailed information on virtually all retail proper-ties in three key regions: Eastern Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire and Greater Hartford, Connecticut. These markets encompass approx-imately 44% of all retail space in New England. GRIID™ has information on nearly 260 million square feet of retail space and nearly 60,000 retail establishments. The KeyPoint Reports con-tain a summary and analysis of market trends and activity for each studied area.
Copyright KeyPoint Partners, LLC, 2015
About this Report: Highlights:
Cities & Towns in the Study Area by Submarket: North Shore: Amesbury, Beverly, Danvers, Essex, Gloucester, Hamilton, Ipswich, Lynn, Manchester, Marblehead, Nahant, Newbury, Newburyport, Peabody, Rockport, Rowley, Salem, Salisbury, Saugus, Swampscott, Topsfield, Wenham, North Andover, Boxford, Georgetown, Groveland, Haverhill, Lawrence, Lynnfield, Melrose, Merrimac, Methuen, Middleton, North: Andover, North Reading, Reading, Stoneham, Tewksbury, Wakefield, West Newbury, Wilmington, Winchester, Woburn Northwest: Acton, Ayer, Bedford, Billerica, Boxborough, Burlington, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Concord, Dracut, Dunstable, Groton, Harvard, Lancaster, Leominster, Lexington, Lincoln, Littleton, Lowell, Lunenburg, Pepperell, Shirley, Townsend, Tyngsborough, Westford West: Ashland, Berlin, Bolton, Boylston, Clinton, Framingham, Grafton, Holliston, Hopkinton, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Natick, Needham, Newton, Northborough, Northbridge, Sher-born, Shrewsbury, Southborough, Sterling, Stow, Sudbury, Upton, Waltham, Wayland, Wellesley, West Boylston, Westborough, Weston Southwest: Attleboro, Bellingham, Blackstone, Dedham, Dover, Foxborough, Franklin, Hopedale, Mansfield, Medfield, Medway, Mendon, Milford, Millis, Millville, Norfolk, North Attleborough, Norwood, Plainville, Sharon, Uxbridge, Walpole, Westwood, Wrentham South: Abington, Avon, Berkley, Braintree, Bridgewater, Brockton, Canton, Dighton, East Bridgewater, Easton, Holbrook, Lakeville, Middleborough, Norton, Randolph, Raynham, Rehoboth, Seekonk, Stoughton, Taunton, West Bridgewater, Whitman South Shore: Carver, Cohasset, Duxbury, Halifax, Hanover, Hanson, Hingham, Hull, Kingston, Marshfield, Norwell, Pembroke, Plymouth, Plympton, Rockland, Scituate, Weymouth Buzzards Bay: Acushnet, Dartmouth, Fairhaven, Fall River, Freetown, Marion, Mattapoisett, New Bedford, Rochester, Somerset, Swansea, Wareham, Westport City of Boston: Boston Inner Suburbs: Arlington, Belmont, Brookline, Cambridge, Chelsea, Everett, Malden, Medford, Milton, Quincy, Revere, Somerville, Watertown, Winthrop
193.2M SFSupply:
2014: 191.6M
Absorption:768,500 SF2014: 712,500 SF
Vacancy Rate:8.8%2014: 8.5%
City/Town Ranks:#1 Space SF: Boston#1 Low Vacancy: Abington#1 High Vacancy: Lawrence
Category Expansion by Square Feet:#1 Food/Grocery(+534,400 SF)
Category Expansion by Number of Stores:#1 Eating Places(+73)
Retailer Expansion by Square Feet:#1 Target(+277,600)
Retailer Expansion by Number of Stores:#1 Subway(+8)
Submarket Ranks:#1 Space SF: West#1 Low Vacancy: North Shore#1 High Vacancy: Buzzard’s Bay
3
Submarkets:
2
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hThe KeyPoint Report Eastern Massachusetts/Greater Boston 2015
Copyright 2015 KeyPoint Partners, LLCNo warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice.
Special Feature: This year’s Report, in addition to our usual detailed summary of market activity for the last year, includes a special feature: an analysis of major changes that have occurred in the restaurant category since 2005. Here are our comments and observations on activ-ity during the latest year:
Supply, Occupancy, & Absorption (Figure 1, Page 4): This year Eastern Massachusetts inventory inched up to 193.2 million square feet, a gain of 0.9% - a sign that new retail development continued some momentum from a year ago. At the same time, vacant retail space in the region increased 873,400 square feet. National and regional chains continue to close stores, as we saw a year ago when the rate jumped from 7.8% to 8.5%. Major contributors to the higher vacancy rate this year range from small tenant closings such as Radio Shack and Cold-water Creek to large department store units such as Sears, Kmart, and JCPenney. Nevertheless, net retail absorption ended the year up, at 768,500 square feet, 56,000 square feet higher than last year.
Regional Submarkets (Figure 2, Page 4): The Southwest submarket experienced the largest percentage increase in square footage, gain-ing 2.1%, which was largely attributable to the opening of University Station in Westwood and a new Market Basket in Attleboro. The West and Northwest ranked second and third, benefitting from the Market Basket-anchored 1265 Main project in Waltham and the Wegmans-anchored 3rd Avenue development and other smaller projects in Burlington.
The largest increase in vacancy, from 9.3% to 10.8%, occurred in the South Shore as JCPenney closing at Hanover Mall and Sears closing at Kingston Collection took their toll on this market. The Buzzards Bay vacancy rate declined from a year ago from 12.5% to 12.3% but remains the highest in Eastern Massachusetts. The North submarket is not far behind at 11.1%. The North Shore has the lowest rate in the region at 6.7%.
Individual Town Rankings (Figure 3, Page 6): The top 10 largest towns remain intact from a year ago, but with a little juggling. Boston and Cambridge again hold the one and two positions. Brockton moved up one spot and is now ranked third, overtaking Natick. Burlington sits in fifth place, followed by Saugus, Danvers, and Framingham. Fall River and Braintree com-plete the top ten. Among communities with at least 500,000 square feet of retail space, Abington remains on top of the rankings for lowest vacancy rate in the region. Two smaller towns added enough new retail space this year to get them into the top 10 for lowest vacancy rate: Westwood, as a result of the University Station opening, and Concord. Lexington, Chelmsford, Mansfield, Braintree, and Acton are also newcomers to this top ten ranking. Seven of the top ten towns with the highest vacancy rates repeat from last year. Only Hanover, Kingston, and Middleton are new to the list. JCPenney and Sears closings were the cause of the former two towns moving up in the ranking.
Vacancy by Tenant Size (Figure 4, Page 6): In recent years, a general trend in Eastern Massachusetts was the increase in vacancy rates among smaller stores, which was largely attributable to mom-and-pop stores that could not recover from the Great Recession. This size category also experienced a rise in vacancy rates this year, but this time national and regional chains were a major contributor. Radio Shack in particular impacted these categories - spaces under 2,500 square feet saw an increase from 13.1% to 13.5%, while the 2,500-4,999 square foot categories increased from 10.9% to 11.7%. The electronics chain impacted both. The 10,000-24,999 square foot bracket also experienced a significant vacancy rate increase from 7.3% to 8.0%, resulting mainly from store closings by Staples and The Mill Stores. Oc-cupancy also slipped in categories under 10,000 square feet. Conversely, some larger categories gained. Market Basket openings helped push up the 50,000-99,999 square foot segment. Target, Wegmans, and Wal-Mart all had a hand in the occupancy share gain in the cat-egory above 100,000 square feet, but JCPenney and Kmart closings resulted in a bump in the vacancy rate within that category. Retailer Activity (Figure 5, Page 8): With respect to expansion by square footage, among the top growing retailers in Eastern Massachusetts, Target nosed out Market Basket for the most new space to the region, adding 277,600 square feet with new stores in Wilmington and West-wood. Market Basket would have taken the top spot with four new stores in Littleton, Revere, Attleboro, and Waltham, but closed one of its two Westford stores (a move that was anticipated), netting the chain 254,400 square feet for the year. Wegmans continued its one-a-year market expansion with a new store in Burlington, placing it third. Wal-Mart added a Supercenter in Saugus, which ranked it 4th.
Vacancy & Absorption:The year-end regional vacancy rate was 8.8%, a moderate increase from a rate of 8.5% in 2014. Total vacan-cy in the region is approximately 17.1 million square feet, a gain of 873,000 square feet. At the same time, new retail projects in the region resulted in significant positive absorption of 768,500 square feet for the year.
Figure 2: SubmarketsThe Southwest submarket experienced the largest percentage gain in square footage, largely attributable to the opening of Westwood’s University Station and a new Market Basket in Attleboro. The West and Northwest ranked second and third, benefitting from the Market Basket-anchored 1265 Main project in Waltham and the Wegmans-anchored 3rd Avenue development in Burlington.
Figure 1: SummaryThis year, the total retail real estate inventory was 193.2 million square feet, a gain of 1.6 million square feet, or 0.9%.
Continued on page 7
Observations:
4 5
Once again, Boston retains #1 rank in retail supply
Category Total Market Size (Square Feet)
Total Number of Retail Properties
Total Number of Retail Establishments
Total Market Vacancy Square Feet
Vacant Stores
Vacancy Rate
Total Retail Space Per Capita
Retail Property Average Size
Retail Store Average Size
2015 193,199,900
19,600
46,000
17,076,900
5,900
8.8%
38.9
9,800
4,200
2014191,558,000
19,800
46,300
16,203,500
5,700
8.5%
38.6
9,700
4,200
%Change0.9%
-0.8%
-0.6%
5.4%
3.2%
3.7%
0.9%
1.4%
0.0%
RegionBuzzard’s Bay
City of Boston
Inner Suburbs
North
North Shore
Northwest
South
South Shore
Southwest
West
2015 SF14,272,700
18,803,000
22,752,800
16,011,400
19,964,300
17,807,200
23,351,800
13,591,500
20,482,000
26,163,200
%Change0.0%
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
1.6%
0.3%
0.4%
2.1%
1.1%
2015 Vacancy12.3%
8.7%
9.0%
11.1%
6.7%
7.1%
9.5%
10.8%
6.9%
8.0%
2014 Vacancy12.5%
7.9%
8.6%
11.0%
6.8%
6.4%
8.9%
9.3%
6.3%
8.5%
The retailer closing the most space in Eastern Massachusetts was JCPenney, dropping more than 200,000 square feet by va-cating its Taunton and Hanover stores. Work Out World declined 155,400 square feet, reducing its footprint by six locations, al-though most were converted to other brand health clubs. The Mill Stores ranked third, closing five stores in the region (it still operates stores on Cape Cod).
Subway led the way with respect to increased store count, add-ing eight locations. Massage Envy, Starbucks, and Dunkin Do-nuts all tied for second, each with six new stores. The runaway loser for unit reduction was Radio Shack, which closed 37 loca-tions. Staples was a distant second with 10 store closings, fol-lowed by Wet Seal with seven. Retail Categories (Figure 6, Page 9): It was a notable year for grocers as this category dominated the field in adding square footage to the region. More than a half million square feet was added to the grocery category by virtue of Wegmans, Whole Foods, Roche Bros. and four new Market Basket units (it was just a matter of time before Artie T. got back to work!). Amuse-ment and Recreation, a category that had gone mostly unno-ticed until last year, ended up in second place again with the openings of King’s, Sky Zone, and K1 Speed, an indoor go-cart concept at the rejuvenated Kingston Collection (formerly Inde-pendence Mall) in Kingston. Losing ground was the Electronics category, attributable to Radio Shack closings and the closing of Best Buy at Landmark Center in Boston. Office and Stationary Supplies also took a blow, primarily the result of Staples store closings. Home Furnishings came in third as a result of The Rug Dept. closing its two stores, which operated under the same family ownership as Building 19 prior to its liquidation.
With respect to store count, Restaurants, a perennial favorite for making the list, topped all categories with 73 additional loca-tions. Health & Fitness Services slid into second place, adding 32 units, followed by Medical & Dental Services, adding 25 lo-
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Copyright 2015 KeyPoint Partners, LLCNo warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Continued on page 9
Observations Continued
Figure 3: City & Town RankingsThe City of Boston again leads the region in total retail inventory. Cambridge holds its #2 ranking, while Brockton jumped ahead of Natick for third place this year. Several of the region’s retail hubs combine retail space in two towns, such as Natick/Framingham and Danvers/Peabody, encompassing 7.1 million and 6.6 million square feet respectively. These represent the two largest super-regional markets. Abington, Westwood, and Lexington were healthiest by vacancy rate, all below 3.0%. None of the top ten had rates above 3.6%. The highest vacancy rate was found in Lawrence at 21.1%. An unlikely runner-up was Hanover at 20.5%, resulting largely from the JCPenney closing at Hanover Mall.
Figure 4: Market Composition & Vacancy by Tenant SizeSimilar to last year, the only size classification to show improvement during the year occurred within the 25,000-49,999 square foot range. Several new store open-ings in Westford and Burlington, and the replacement of a former Burlington Coat Factory with India Market in Shrewsbury, accounted largely for the lower vacancy rate in this category. JCPenney and Kmart closings in Taunton and Milford, respectively, caused a spike in the vacancy rate among 100,000-199,999 square foot segment. Small units under 5,000 square feet also showed higher vacancy rates.
6 7
Target led expansion by SF in the region
Most Space SF Highest Vacancy* Prior Rank Lowest Vacancy* Prior RankBoston
Cambridge
Brockton
Natick
Burlington
Saugus
Danvers
Framingham
Fall River
Braintree
18,803,000
4,486,700
3,710,100
3,704,000
3,603,100
3,477,500
3,399,600
3,382,500
3,333,600
3,315,600
Lawrence
Hanover
Malden
New Bedford
Haverhill
Taunton
Kingston
North Reading
West Bridgewater
Middleton
21.1%
20.5%
19.9%
19.4%
19.3%
19.1%
18.4%
18.3%
17.9%
15.5%
Abington
Westwood
Lexington
Bridgewater
Concord
Chelmsford
Hingham
Mansfield
Braintree
Acton
2.1%
2.2%
2.8%
3.0%
3.0%
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
1
NA
21
6
NA
12
5
19
26
28
4
13
1
6
2
5
14
3
9
17
*For cities and towns with 500,000 square feet or more of retail space. NOTE: For towns with supply close to the threshold, 1 large vacant space can account for high vacancy percentage, without necessarily indicating market health.
Tenant Size Market Share 2015 Market Share 2014 Vacancy 2015 Vacancy 2014
Less Than 2,500 SF
2,500 to 4,999 SF
5,000 to 9,999 SF
10,000 to 24,999 SF
25,000 to 49,999 SF
50,000 to 99,999 SF
100,000 to 199,999 SF
200,000 SF and above
20.2%
15.8%
12.7%
14.3%
10.4%
11.2%
13.7%
1.7%
20.4%
15.9%
12.8%
14.3%
10.5%
11.0%
13.5%
1.7%
13.5%
11.7%
10.6%
8.0%
7.0%
6.6%
2.3%
0.0%
13.1%
10.9%
10.6%
7.3%
7.5%
6.6%
1.4%
0.0%
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Copyright 2015 KeyPoint Partners, LLCNo warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice.
cations. This is a relevant finding as more and more non-retail users become viable replacements in shopping center venues. Declining in number was Beauty Salons and Services, dropping 62 units. Electronics lost 35 stores, reflecting the Radio Shack impact. Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Shops ended in third place, decreasing by 31 units.
Conclusions: As we continue to acclimate to a multi-channel world, those of us who live primarily in the brick-and-mortar segment of the retail spectrum increasingly feel its effects. Shopping center development has slowed, store footprints are shrinking, vacancy rates are stagnating, retail chains continue to consolidate, and some retail categories are fading away.
At the same time we now see viable non-retail users occupying traditional retail spaces, such as medical and dental tenants. We see entertainment venues like King’s and Sky Zone eat-ing up large blocks of shopping center space. We see retailers broadening merchandise offerings to offset sales declines in core lines, such as Barnes & Noble expanding into educational toys and games and other non-book categories.
We see restaurant concepts expanding throughout the region such as Chipotle, Boloco, b. good, and now Shake Shack and Smashburger (see our Restaurant Special Feature on Page 11). And we see retailers expanding in-store customer services to help differentiate the brick-and-mortar purchasing experience from less personal encounters on the internet.
While we indicated that development has slowed, it assuredly has a pulse. We experienced exciting new openings this year in Burlington at the Wegmans-anchored 3rd Avenue project and in Westwood at University Station with its complementary mix of Target, Ulta, Nordstrom Rack, Bonefish Grill and Smashburger, and a soon-to-open Wegmans, among many others. Grocery chains were busy growing as we saw with Market Basket, Whole Foods and Roche Bros. in addition to Wegmans. Health clubs in the region continue to expand as do entertainment venues.
A preference study conducted last year by the A. T. Kearney man-agement consulting firm showed that 90% of shoppers across all generations still prefer a physical store. They like to shop with other shoppers, touch stuff, and enjoy the atmosphere. No one would argue that shopping habits aren’t changing, but it ap-pears that, in this new omni-channel retail world, brick-and-mortar remains the back-bone of the shopping experience.
Bob SheehanVice President of [email protected]
Observations Continued
Figure 6: Retail Category ActivityTenants in GRIID™ represent nearly 600 unique business classifications; we have aggregated similar business types into larger retail categories, and summarized these by the degree of ex-pansion or contraction.
Figure 5: Retailer ActivityThe region encompasses approximately 46,000 retail establishments, representing approxi-mately 26,800 unique retailers. The following summarizes these by the degree of expansion or contraction.
NOTE: All figures shown above are NET
8 9
Eating Places
Health & Fitness Services
Medical & Dental Services
Tobacco Stores and Stands
Telephone Equipment
Food Stores - Grocery
Apparel - Family
Drinking Places
Computer & Software Stores
Pet Shops & Pet Supply Stores
Expansion by # Stores
Category New Total
Expansion by SF
Category New Total
Contraction by # Stores
Contraction by SF
Food Stores - Grocery
Amusement & Recreation
Health & Fitness Services
Eating Places
Apparel - Family
Medical & Dental Services
Department Stores
Pet Shops & Pet Supply Stores
Auto & Home Supply
Telephone Equipment
534,400
247,100
230,000
170,700
127,200
112,100
83,400
62,500
43,200
41,600
73
32
25
22
13
8
7
6
6
5
20,603,300
4,490,300
7,490,400
22,878,700
6,592,300
1,632,900
21,850,100
1,315,700
2,921,900
854,200
Electronic Stores
Office & Stationery Supplies
Home Furnishings
Apparel - Women’s
Cleaners & Laundry Services
Furniture Stores
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Shops
Book Stores
Jewelry
Paint, Glass & Wallpaper
-119,800
-106,400
-89,800
-84,900
-57,300
-56,400
-55,500
-52,700
-33,100
-29,200
965,800
1,246,500
2,842,900
2,863,900
2,208,300
4,579,800
1,925,000
647,700
778,600
401,500
Category Contracted Total
9,073
1,243
679
98
439
1,836
596
371
140
199
Beauty Salons and Services
Electronic Stores
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Shops
Furniture Stores
Florists
Cleaners & Laundry Services
Jewelry
Variety Stores
Shoe Stores
Book Stores
-62
-35
-31
-26
-18
-17
-16
-16
-14
-12
4,846
115
603
418
365
1,235
495
649
396
140
Category Contracted Total
Subway Sandwiches & Salads
Massage Envy
Starbucks Coffee
Dunkin Donuts
O’Reilly Auto Parts
Uniqlo
Petsmart
Chatime
Cumberland Farms
Francesca’s
Expansion by # Stores
Retailer New Total
Expansion by SF
Retailer New Total
Contraction by # Stores
Contraction by SF
Target
Market Basket
Wegman’s
Wal-Mart
National Wholesale Liquidators
O’Reilly Auto Parts
Cabela’s
Marshall’s
Burlington Coat Factory
CVS Pharmacy
277,600
254,400
136,400
114,400
89,400
88,900
88,000
76,900
66,000
61,300
8
6
6
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
4,236,800
2,562,500
344,400
4,423,300
173,900
95,300
88,000
1,511,100
729,600
2,973,500
J C Penney
Work-Out-World
Mill Stores
The Rug Dept.
Staples
KMart
Sears
Ten X Club
Kam-Man Foods
Best Buy
207,900
155,400
140,900
122,400
106,200
100,700
80,000
76,200
38,000
35,600
927,000
311,200
0
0
977,700
1,060,800
2,381,200
0
80,000
746,000
Retailer Contracted Total
206
23
143
610
8
5
21
4
89
16
Radio Shack
Staples
Wet Seal
Work-Out-World
Quizno’s Subs
Mill Stores
Coldwater Creek
Crumbs Bake Shop
7-Eleven
Hollywood Tans
37
10
7
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
43
47
5
11
2
0
0
1
118
0
Retailer Contracted Total
10 11
In the past ten years a number of restaurant chains have come and gone but the absolute number of restaurants has trended up. In 2005, KeyPoint data showed that 6,179 restaurants operated within Eastern Massachusetts. By 2010, even after withstanding the Great Recession, that number climbed to 6,391 units.
In the past five years the restaurant count in the region has rocketed to 6,946 locations, more than doubling the pace of new openings from the first half of the decade. Much of the growth in the number of restaurants resulted from the development of fast casual chains, in addition to the phenomenal growth of Subway, which passed McDonald’s by the end of 2010 to become the largest restaurant chain in the world. Its current global store count exceeds 42,000 locations, an average of two store openings per day since 1965. In Eastern Massachusetts, Subway has added 71 lo-cations in the ten years since 2005.
While Subway is in a class all by itself, in the next tier are fast casual chains Chipotle, Panera Bread, and Five Guys, which combined for more than 100 new locations since 2005. Neither Chipotle nor Five Guys operated stores in the region until 2007 and 2008, respectively. Other chains showing notable growth since 2005 include Boloco, Qdoba, and b. good.
Friendly’s, D’Angelo, McDonald’s and KFC lead all chains in the region for the most store closings between 2005 and 2010 in Eastern Massachusetts. Although operational prob-lems caused some of the fallout at these chains, the more salient issue may lie in the fact that they were not quick to adapt to consumer trends toward better eating habits and healthier lifestyles. Other chains losing significant market share include Applebee’s, Boston Market, Burger King and Uno.
Figure 1, at left, illustrates the change in store counts dur-ing the past ten years among restaurant chains with 10 or more locations in the region.
Source: KeyPoint Partners’ GRIID™
Significant Change Among Major Restaurant Chains in 10 Years
No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change in price, rental or other conditions, or withdrawal without notice. Copyright 2015 KeyPoint Partners, LLC
Special Section: A Ten-Year Look at RestaurantsSu
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Figure 1: Restaurant Store Count Change 2005-2015Restaurant counts:2005: 6,1792010: 6,3912015: 6,946
Most units added:SubwayChipotlePanera
Subway ChipotlePanera Five Guys BolocoQdoba b. good Crown Fried ChickenCosiComella’sLegal Sea FoodsLonghorn
Olive Garden IHOPRegina PizzeriaWendy’sTGI Friday’sNot Your Average Joe’sNinety Nine Taco BellChili’s Acapulco Papa Gino’sBertucci’s
Outback Pizza HutAu Bon PainUno Burger KingBoston MarketApplebee’sKFCMcDonald’sD’Angelo’s Friendly’sAt right, restaurant chains tracked (includes
chains with 10 or more regional locations:
KeyPoint Partners, LLCOne Burlington Woods Drive, Burlington, MA 01803Tel 781.273.5555 Fax 781.272.8408
KeyPoint Partners provides retail research consulting services ranging from preliminary desktop assessments to comprehensive evaluations which integrate field investigation and quantitative analysis for a variety of retail location and store types. The heart of our research superiority is our powerful, proprietary GRIID™. Is there a custom retail market research project we can do for you? Call Bob Sheehan, Vice President of Research at 781.418.6248, or email him at [email protected].
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Methodology: The data for this study includes all public retail space in the study area except for a few exclusions discussed below. The information in our data-base has been compiled from a variety of sources. A member of KeyPoint Partners’ research staff has visited each store/shopping center in order to verify and/or acquire the necessary information. The area for each space is obtained from sources deemed reliable, such as the owner or leasing agent, is paced off by our researchers or otherwise measured. Retail categories and SIC Codes are obtained from a leading business database, InfoUSA, when available. Each entry is field verified or determined by our research staff. In general, public retail space is characterized as all space currently, or most recently, utilized in selling or renting retail goods and/or services to the public. There are no size restrictions for stores or shopping centers. Certain retail classifications are excluded, including au-tomobile dealerships, gasoline service stations, automobile repair shops and quasi-retail services, such as stock brokers, real estate agents, insurance agents, etc., unless such establishments are located in shopping centers containing typical retail tenants. In some cases wholesale or quasi-retail establishments have been included in the database if information from InfoUSA or our field research indicates that goods and/or services are being offered to the public from the location. Some establishments available to the public but typically serving primarily the needs of other users of a facility, such as a cafeteria in an office building or a beauty salon located inside a hotel, may also be excluded. Demographic information used in this study was provided by Scan/US.
Retail Real Estate Trends & Analysis 2015Eastern MA/Greater Boston
KeyPoint Partners, LLCOne Burlington Woods Drive, Burlington, MA 01803Tel 781.273.5555 Fax 781.272.8408
The KeyPoint Report©2015 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA
The KeyPoint Report©2015 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA
Special Section: 10-Year Restaurant Report
On the covers: Wegmans, one of several major grocers who expanded in the region
The KeyPoint Report©2015 KEYPOINT PARTNERS, LLC, BURLINGTON, MA
