THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY – WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTURE Ivo Šlaus World Academy of Art...
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THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY – WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTURE Ivo Šlaus World Academy of Art and Science, member Board of Trustees, SEED – South East European Division of WAAS, president World Council Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs and The Club of Rome
THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY – WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTURE Ivo Šlaus World Academy of Art and Science, member Board of Trustees, SEED – South East
THE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY WHY AND HOW: ROLE OF SCIENCE AND CULTURE
Ivo laus World Academy of Art and Science, member Board of
Trustees, SEED South East European Division of WAAS, president
World Council Pugwash Conference on Science and World Affairs and
The Club of Rome
Slide 2
The contemporary world: globalization science generated rapid
changes science generated characterized by uncertainties and
instabilities number of Earths required to provide resources used
by humanity and to absorb their emissions for each year:
197019802005 0.86 1.001.25 World is dangerously in a state of
overshoot. Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with
governance
Slide 3
Cross-border trade: 1950 = 8% GDP, 2000 = 25% I. Kant 24
globalizers (3 billions) increased GDP/c by 5% vs nonglobalizers
decreased by 1% 400 household goods in UK 20% cheaper than 10 years
ago By 2010 50% internet users in developing world vs 4% now
Worker/producer person consumer/stakeholder
Slide 4
in 20 years 30 new infectious diseases, resistance to
antibiotics, flu pandemic Terrorism (tanker in harbor:
55xHiroshima), crime (cyber) Trust changes quickly: 1975: 20%
Americans trusted military vs 2000: 63% Demographic transition
within rather short interval of time and extremely uneven
Slide 5
Failures Income gap: 1960 19901997 30:1 60:1 74(82):1
Undernourishment in industrial 2.5%, in Africa 40% In 1998 > 45%
of people had to live on < $ 2/day 1981 to 2001: living on
$1/day fell by factor of 2 while living on $2/day increased from
2.4 to 2.7 billions 54 countries experienced in 1990-2001 decline
in GDP/c
Slide 6
NW:1945 1985 2005 1985 2005 USA23,00010,500 USSR/Russia40,000
9,000 world70,00030,000 Americas top 100 foreign policy experts
opinion The single greatest threat to US national interest WMD47%
Al Qaida terrorism32% Bush adm. policies14% Iraq war 9% Economic
decline 5% Iran 4% Oil dependence 3% Are we winning war on terror?
YES 13%, NO 84%
Slide 7
Slide 8
Gallup Voice of the People May-June 2005: 50,000 citizens, 65
countries equivalent 1.3 billion persons (1)Election
free/fair(2)Country governed by the will of the people world 47%30%
Political stability index = (1)(2) + (1)(-2) (-1)(-2) PSI 2003 PSI
2004 PSI 2005 World 1412 5 Latin America -20 -21 -2
Slide 9
Business leaders Political leaders Not competent23%45%
Unethical38%49% Too much power46%53% Dishonest40%61%
Slide 10
Percentage of people declaring themselves or family have not
enough to eat W.Europe 4% Asia Pacific13% N. America17% Latin
America22% E&C Europe25% Africa43% World18% Highest
percentages: Nigeria (56%), Philippines (46%), Peru (42%), Ukraine
(38%), Pakistan (32%), Russia (31%)
Slide 11
Most important problems facing the world today Poverty26%
Terrorism12% Unemployment 9% Wars and conlicts 8% Economic problems
7% Environment 6% Drugs 5% Crime 4%
Slide 12
Slide 13
Throughout our history resources have been finite. Possession
of these resources meant political power. Knowledge doubles in 5 15
years Decision-making: quite local and global Educated vs
Uneducated demonstrate 31% 6% stopped buying goods 70%34%
Slide 14
The best place to store food is in another person belly.
(Eskimossaying) Social groups and interactions important in
evolution. In 1973 John M. Smith applied game theory to the
evolution of animal strategies. Animals not only compete but share
a resource if that is beneficiary. Simple species display
cooperation (prisoners dilemma). Repeated prisoners dilemma winning
strategy: tit-for-tat: cooperate and never be the first to defect,
retaliate only after your partner has defected, forgive and
cooperate after retaliating just once. (R.Axelrod)
Slide 15
Golden moral rule Altruism is an example of a
non-zero-sum-game, i.e. a win-win game. The state when nobody can
gain without somebody else losing i.e. all win-win games are
exhausted - is called the Pareto maximum. Innovations and more
importantly, scientific breakthroughs can increase the Pareto
maximum.
Slide 16
Why? 1) Holocene: 10-12 millennia ended in1784 (J. Watt), 1873:
Antonio Stoppani, V.I. Vernadsky & Teillard de Chardin
noosphere world of thought. Energy use grown 16 times during 20 c.
Anthropocene epoch Paul Crutzen: Martin Rees: Bio and cyber
expertise will be accessible to millions. It does not require
special facilities...Even a simple person will have the capability
of disrupting the world through terror or error. 2) Knowledge is
the resource. 3) Breakthrough curiosity-driven research is the way
to increase Paretos maximum.
Slide 17
Development of human and social capital, and increasing the
Pareto optimum requires knowledge-based society. Knowledge is the
main resource in a knowledge-society. It permeates the life and the
culture of a society: policy- and decision-making. Knowledge
society is constantly changing. Knowledge is inexhaustible and it
is increased by sharing. Knowledge is becoming today the main
political power. (Alvin Toffler) In the knowledge society many
other resources are used use of most of them has to be appreciably
reduced and substituted by other resources.
Slide 18
In our own selfish interest we have to get involved in the
betterment of global conditions. We need to emphasize cooperation,
networking and solidarity, increasing human options and freedom. In
a knowledge society individuals and social groups will still behave
and act irrationally, make numerous mistakes, even be stupid. It is
the responsibility of the knowledge society to develop and
establish ways that can minimize the harm of such stupidities and
maximize their possible benefits.
Slide 19
Learn from successes: world ave developing world 1960: 2250
2100 Kcal/day capita 1997: 2750 2600 Kcal/day capita Higher life
expectancy and healthy active life end of Cold War and spread of
democracies successful treaties, e.g. ozone How?
Slide 20
existing science, humanities and technology; knowledge one
produces: ongoing and planned R&D,innovations and ideas
-Iljf&Petrov education and language, literature, art We
understand by our heart as much as by our brain. (B. Pascal) Our
greatest success: Knowledge
Slide 21
Slide 22
Eliminate violence, war, terrorism Human and social dignity,
development, full employment Culture of peace and knowledge:
democracy and freedom Eliminate ignorance Research and education in
spite of cumulative advantage feature of not an elite in a sea
science breakthru catch up of mediocrity
Slide 23
We have to live with dangerous technologies We have to live
with uncertainties: in quantum physics from uncertainties to
quantum computer and life Reduce non-renewable resources and
substitute by other resources. Reduce and eliminate dangers and
threats we face. Knowledge can cause quantitative and qualitative
jump in the GDP/capita
Slide 24
psycho-social pressures and stress + perception that our
dignity and that of our social group is threatened + short term
interests globalization interdependence/ no major war energy
demand: in 2030 2.6 times larger small influence large effects (CO
2 ) Search for alternative inputs much earlier than we reach a
maximum. whatever we do not do today will be more difficult to do
tomorrow.
Slide 25
S&T give the power to change the future. IGO handful 1900
to 4667 in 1996 NGO 196 in 1900 to 44,000 in 2000 Global civil
society Knowledge-Governance Intertwining Assure sustainable
consumption. Minimize the dangers of modern technologies.
Revitalize hidden and traditional knowledge.
Slide 26
Each nuclear state reduces its nuclear weapons (number and
power) in half every two years. Each state reduces its total
military power in half every five years. Appreciate: Education is
needed not only for jobs and skills, but much more to be able to
live. Assure: Low-cost technologies, e.g. ICT: $100 laptops. How
close are we in achieving knowledge society? ROADMAP
Slide 27
education at all levels for everybody and lifelong Europe USA
Japan South Korea % working population 21 % 38% 36% with tertiary
education Gross enrolment 52% 81% 82% Within 500 leading
universities Europe cradle of education has very few. European
Institute of Technology as a network
Slide 28
Economy will swell by 40% from 2005 to 2015 Chinese middle
class: from 65 millions in 2005 to 650 in 2020 Appreciate: Work
Employment. Changes in jobs and skills, Human resources
development. Capacity to manage change. Taking risks and
controlling risks.
Slide 29
Each state reduces unemployment by 2% each 2 years by
increasing employment in education and research Since less
person-hours are needed to achieve the same output in agriculture
and manufacturing and since part of services are redundant, the
demand for new jobs will be in education (About a factor 4-6, since
instead of 12-16 year education, a lifelong, i.e. about 60 year
long education, and for a much larger number od persons.) and in
R&D. Knowledge-intensive sectors in EU = 33% (UK = 41%)
Slide 30
Europe USA Japan GER&D/GDP 1.99% 2.76% 3.12% top 1% cited
articles37.3% 62.8% scientific publications46.1% 39.4% 10.8% world
researchers33.4% 22.8% 11.7% (5521 in thousands) 1843 1261 647
researchers/million inhabi 2319 4373 5085
Slide 31
Each state increases its GER&D to reach 3% of its GDP, but
assuring that all R&D outputs indicators (top 5% cited papers,
number of NP and FM laureates and of fellows of
international/regional academies, number of leading universities
and research institutes) increase, intertwining knowledge with
economy and governance. (assessed by involvement of active top
scientists in policy- and decision-making bodies above a threshold
of 10%). Ownership of knowledge Knowledge as a common good.
Slide 32
Predictions & Scenaria Scenaria are rigorous, logical, but
imaginative stories about what future might be, designed to help
plan. Scenaria are NOT predictions. Multiple scenaria. They are
tools for preparation early 70-ies by Shell. Now IBM, Coca-Cola,
Apple, AT&T, DARPA, Heineken, Kellogg, Republic of
Singapore,... Scenaria identify predetermineds, critical
uncrtainties, wild cards, embedded assumptions and it is useful if
scenaria have early warnings. Exponential growth - Singularities -
Catastrophic phenomena - S curves
Slide 33
1)The Heaven Scenario Ray Kurzweil Singularity is near:
conquering disease & poverty, technology is in control, but
increase in wisdom, love, truth and peace. 2) The Hell Scenario
Bill Joy Why the future does not need us, F. Fukuyama Our posthuman
future: hostile world, destroying large segments of biosphere,
reversals. 3)The Prevail Scenario Jaron Zepel Lanier (named virtual
reality) The Future that Loves Us: increasing links among humans,
transcendence is social, not solitary. Human are choosing their
future.
Slide 34
Caveat: Knowledge is contextualized only within a specific
cultural system. All cultures need constant changes?!! TIME Chronos
and Kairos There was no time when we did not exists (Bhagavad Gita)
Man is afraid of time, but time is afraid of pyramides(Arab) Future
is an ethical category we choose it. (Soedjatmoko) Theory of
relativity Albert Einstein While most resources existed separately
of people, knowledge resides in people.