The Louisiana Economy

Division of Economic Development and ForecastingE.J. Ourso College Of Business

Louisiana State University

Topics

• A bit about our research projects• Key features in the Louisiana economy• Forecasts for the Louisiana economy• Concerns

Division Related Projects

• Louisiana Economic Outlook• Occupational Forecasting (LWC)• Job Vacancy Survey (LWC)• Economic Development Impact Studies

(LED)• Tourism Satellite Account (CRT)• UI Claims Forecast• Others: Green Jobs, LHIS

Unemployment Rates: U.S. and Louisiana

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Louisiana Unemployment RateUS Unemployment Rate

US Employment by Industry

Government16.2%

Trade & Transportation19.0%

Education and Health Services13.4%

Leisure and Hospital-ity

9.8% Professional & Business Svcs.

13.1%

Manufacturing10.1%

Construction5.6%Financial Activities

6.1%Other Services

4.0%

Natural Resources and Mining0.5%

Information2.2%

~138,000,000 jobs total; 1%~1.38M jobs

LA Employment by Industry

1% 20,000 jobs

Government20.3%

Trade & Transportation19.9%

Educational and Health Services12.8%

Leisure and Hospital-ity

10.5%

Professional & Business Svcs.

9.7%

Manufacturing8.1%

Construction6.0%

Financial Activities5.2%

Other Services3.6%

Natural Resources and Mining2.5%

Information1.6%

1% ~ 17.6K jobs; 1,760,000 jobs total

Share of US GDP

Financial Activities10.0%

Trade & Transportation17.1%

Manufacturing19.0%

Government14.4%

Professional and Business Services7.7%

Education and Health Services

8.8%Construction6.6%

Information6.7%

Leisure and Hospi-tality4.5%

Other Services3.0%

Natural Resources and Mining

2.3%

Share of LA GDP

Financial Activities11.5%

Trade & Transportation14.9%

Manufacturing21.7%

Government10.6%

Professional and Business Services7.6%

Education and Health Services

6.2%

Construction4.8%

Information2.2%

Leisure and Hospitality3.8%

Other Services2.0%

Natural Resources and Mining

14.7%

Key Features of LA

• Katrina Rebuilding• Industrial mix

– Primarily non-durable goods manufacturing• Heavy reliance on oil and gas industry• Industrial construction

Louisiana Driver Firms

Driver Firms Included in

AnalysisNumber of firms 153 143

Direct Employment 157,291 149,945Total LA Jobs Created 468,326 440,000

Direct Wages $2.4 billion $2.3 billionTotal LA Sales Created $36.6 billion $ 35.2 billion

Driver Firms

2008-2018 Forecastsby RLMA (Preliminary)

Statistical Adjusted Historical Data

Forecast Forecast1990-2004

1994-2004

1998-2008

1: New Orleans 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% -1.5%

2: Baton Rouge 0.8% 1.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5%

3: Houma 1.3% 1.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0%

4: Lafayette 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0%

5: Lake Charles 0.3% 0.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5%

6: Alexandria 0.6% 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2%

7: Shreveport 0.5% 0.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8%

8: Monroe 0.6% 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0%

Statewide 0.6% 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3%

Concerns

• Hurricane recovery and New Orleans • Major legislation is creating uncertainty in

key sectors– Healthcare– Energy– Financial

• State Budget

#

56.1

# 72.1

#

53.2

# -20.0

# -22.4

#

-15.8

Vernon

Winn

Cameron

Rapides

Union

Allen

Sabine

Caddo

Vermilion

Terrebonne

Grant

Bossier

Lafourche

De Soto

Calcasieu

Natchitoches

Bienville

Beauregard St Landry

Acadia

Avoyelles

Iberia

St Mary

Tensas

St Tammany

Iberville

La Salle

Claiborne

Franklin

Madison

Webster

Concordia

Morehouse

Catahoula

Ouachita

Jackson

Tangipahoa

Plaquemines

Livingston

Lincoln

St Martin

Richland

Caldwell

Evangeline

Washington

Jeff'n Davis

Jefferson

Orleans

St Bernard

St Helena

Red River

Pointe Coupee

St Charles

East Carroll

East Feliciana

E Baton Rouge

Assumption

West Carroll

Lafayette Ascension

West Feliciana

St James

St John Baptist

W Baton Rouge

Louisiana ParishesPercent Population Change

Census 1980-2000-22.4 to 0%0 to 20%20 to 33%33 to 50%50 to 72.1%

# Orleans

# St Tammany

#

E Baton Rouge

#

St Mary

#

Lafayette

# Rapides

#Caddo

655

53

-944

4451

708

-8945

7491

1418

11044

-1250

-359

-233

-186

1601

1636

-635

-1821

80115

16455

-244

4050

-445718310

1873

1995

16877

1425

-2734

1161

-1367

8029

-201

8369

-1089

-2722

-1105

-2247

-1907

33008

-2878

698

-1800

-732

-1282

-1924

7789

-1206

-10012

1348

3140

2678

-811

2925

-608 -2351

46486

130410863

-313

11120 -72407

2662540526

2560

LA Population 1980-2000

Demographic Trends

Under

5 yea

rs

5 to 9

years

10 to

14 ye

ars

15 to

19 ye

ars

20 to

24 ye

ars

25 to

29 ye

ars

30 to

34 ye

ars

35 to

39 ye

ars

40 to

44 ye

ars

45 to

49 ye

ars

50 to

54 ye

ars

55 to

59 ye

ars

60 to

64 ye

ars

65 to

69 ye

ars

70 to

74 ye

ars

75 to

79 ye

ars

80 to

84 ye

ars85

UP1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

2008 Population Distribution

UNITED STATES RLMA 1 (NEW ORLEANS)