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APEC Seminar on “Strengthening Public-Private Partnership to Reduce Food Losses in the Supply Chain” 5-8 August, 2013, Taipei. The Methodology of APEC Food Losses Assessment. Emily Ching -Cheng CHANG Research Fellow Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica. Outline. Backgrounds - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Methodology of
APEC Food Losses Assessment
Emily Ching-Cheng CHANGResearch Fellow
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
APEC Seminar on“Strengthening Public-Private Partnership to Reduce Food Losses in the Supply
Chain”5-8 August, 2013, Taipei
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Outline
• Backgrounds• Connection between FS and Food lose/waste• Current Status
– By products/supply chain/level of development• Methodology for APEC• Preliminary Results
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Background
PHL reduction matters because its absence will–Reduce availability of food–Reduce quality, safety, nutritional values–Raise costs of production and distribution –Lower sectoral value-added
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Recent Trend of Food Price Index
As food prices continued to rise, the stakes got higherSo has the opportunity cost of post-harvest losses
Source: FAO, World Food Situation: FAO Food Price Index
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High incidence of PHL toward food insecurity
Globally speaking, food losses and waste:
– 1.3 billion ton/yr – Over 1/3 – 1/2 of production – Over USD 450 billion/yr – By 2020, estimated to increase by 40%
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PHL by region(kg/ per person per year)
• Food Losses– Europe and N America (180-190
kg) – Industrialized Asia (160 kg)– Southeast Asia (110-160 kg)
• Food Wastage– Europe and N America (80-100
kg) – Industrialized Asia (80 kg)– Southeast Asia (5-10 kg)
SOURCE: Opara, L. “Novel Postharvest Technologies for Food Security and Safety.” http://www.globalsciencecollaboration.org/public/site/PDFS/food/Opara%20L.%20Novel%20Postharvest%20Technologies%20for%20Food%20Security%20and%20Safety.pdf
Connection between PHL and Food Security/Safety
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Research Needed
• Quantify extent and economic cost of PHL in APEC region
• Calculate how much reduction of PHL would be required to end hunger in APEC region
• Determine whether reducing PHL would enable food security in APEC region
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Extent of Food Losses and Waste
–By stages of supply chain– By member economies– By products
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By Product & Stage
Source: Gustavsson et al .(2011), Global Food Losses and Food Waste: Extent Causes and Prevention, FAO, Rome.
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Methodology • Commodity System
Analysis (CSA)– CSA is widely use on
postharvest handling and marketing of a given commodity.
– CSA is made up of27 components that together account for all the steps associated with the production
• Mass Flow Model (MFM)– MFM is developed by the
Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology (SIK)
– Using available food balance sheet data
– Aimed to human consumption
– Quantify physical mass throughout the supply chain using SIK own assumptions
Commodity System Analysis (CSA)
• 26 components• Each component is
potentially important• But not always relevant for
all commodities• Permits analysis of a whole
commodity systems• Requires a multidisciplinary
team• Data collection is costly
Source: La Gra et al.1990
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Problem of CSA
• Losses for developing country records do not exist• Do not cover a long enough period of time• Assessment are only estimated by several observers• Records may not truly represent a continuing
situation, for example :1. losses may have been calculated only when unusually
high or low2. loss figures may be deliberately over- or understated in
order to gain benefits or to avoid embarrassment
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Mass Flow Model (MFM)
Source: Linpinski et al .(2013) Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment Two: Reducing Food Loss and Waste
FAO Food Balance Sheet Mass Flow
Allocation Ratio
- To determines the part of food that is allocated for human consumption.
Food(K)
Food (Fresh)(L)
Food (Processed)(M)
Allocation Ratio
(1-Allocation Ratio)
Allocation factorswheat maize rice
Europe 35% 35% 35%
North America & Oceania. 50% 50% 50%
Industrialized Asia 60% 60% 60%
Sub-Saharan Africa 75% 75% 75%
North Africa, West & Central Asia. 60% 60% 60% South & Southeast Asia 67% 67% 67%Latin America 40% 40% 40%
LW1=A* (❶/ (1+❶)) LW2=A*❷ LW3=(L+H)*❸ LW4=K*❹
Lw5= (L+H-LW3)*❺LW6=(K-LW4)*❻LW7=(L+H-LW3-LW5)*❼
Losses & Waste along Supply Chain
Production Handling& Storage
Processing& Packaging
Distribution& Market Consumption
ID Balance Sheet item ID Loss Ratios
A Production ❶ Production
H Processing ❷ Handling & Storage
K Food (Fresh) ❸ Processing and Packaging
L Food (Processed) ❹ Distribution (Fresh)
❺ Distribution (Processed)
❻ Consumption (Fresh)
❼ Consumption (Processed0
Formulae for Food Losses and Waste Calculation
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Loss Ratios along the Food Supply Chain
North America & Oceania., Russia.Cereals Roots & Tubers Oilseeds & Pulses Fruit & Vegetables Meat Fish & Seafood Milk
Production 2% 20% 12% 20% 3.50% 12% 3.50%Handling and storage 2% 10% 0% 4% 1.00% 0.50% 0.50%Processing and packaging 0.5%,10% 15% 5% 2% 5% 6% 1.20%Distribution Retail Market 2% 7% 1% 12% 4% 9% 0.50%Consumption 27% 30% 4% 28% 11% 33% 15%
Industrialized AsiaProduction 2% 20% 6% 10% 2.90% 15.00% 3.50%Handling and storage 10% 7% 3% 8% 0.60% 2.00% 1%Processing and packaging 0.5%,10% 15% 5% 2% 5% 6% 1.20%Distribution Retail Market 2% 9% 1% 8% 6% 11% 0.50%Consumption 20% 10% 4% 15% 8% 8% 5%
South & Southeast AsiaProduction 6% 6% 7% 15% 5.10% 8.20% 3.50%Handling and storage 7% 19% 12% 9% 0.30% 6% 6%Processing and packaging 3.50% 10% 8% 25% 5% 9% 2%Distribution Retail Market 2% 11% 2% 10% 7% 15% 10%Consumption 3% 3% 1% 7% 4% 2% 1%
Source: Gustavsson et al .(2011), Global Food Losses and Food Waste: Extent Causes and Prevention, ANNEX 4, FAO, Rome.
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Preliminary Results
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Preliminary Results
Losses & Waste
(mill ton)
Production
(mill ton)
Utilization
(mill ton)
Loss % in
Production
Loss % in
UtilizationWheat 34.9 292.3 236.2 11.9% 14.8%Maize 46.8 567.7 548.0 8.3% 8.5%Rice 39.8 256.6 242.4 15.5% 16.4%
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Preliminary Results-1
Per capita loss by weight (Kg)• Wheat: 1~43 kg (15 kg avg per year) • Maize: 1~66 kg (11 kg avg per year)• Rice: 1~38 Kg (13 kg avg per year)
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Preliminary Results-2
Convert into per capita calorie losses (Kcal) using FAO Food Balance Sheet• Wheat: 4~367 (112 kcal avg per
year) • Maize: 4~489 (80 kcal avg per year)• Rice: 8~381 (131 kcal avg per year)
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Preliminary Results-3
Convert into per capita monetary losses (USD) using FAO producer prices*1.5• Wheat: 2~15 (6 USD avg per year) • Maize: 1~14 (3 USD avg per year)• Rice: 1~50 (l0 USD avg per year)
13 billion 14 billion
24 billion
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Preliminary Results-Wheat
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Preliminary Results-Maize
Australia
Canad
aChile
P Rep of C
hina
Indonesia
Japan
Rep of K
orea
Malaysi
a
Mexico
New Ze
aland
Peru
Philippines
Russia
Chinese Ta
ipei
Thaila
nd
United St
ates
Viet Nam
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Loss Ratio along FSC (Dom Utilization)- Maize
ConsumptionDistributionProcessing & PackingHandling & StorageProduction
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Preliminary Results- Rice
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APEC Information Platform onPost Harvest Loss and Waste System (PHLOWS)
PurposeSupport C food security policy formulationIdentify opportunities to improve value chainsMonitor and evaluate loss reduction activities
Input Data(Food
Balance Sheet)
Calculator(Loss/
Allocation/
Conversion Ratio)
Output (Losses)
by weight, calorie, $$$
(Table, Graph, Map)
Examined by Member Economy
APIP Website
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APIP-PHLOWS Webpage
https://sites.google.com/site/apecharvestlost/
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Cover Page
Click
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Thank you &Comment Welcome