The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A Toolbox for Water- and Environmental-Resources Modeling and Management G.H. Leavesley, S.L. Markstrom, R.J. Viger,

The Modular Modeling The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A System (MMS): A

Toolbox for Water- and Toolbox for Water- and Environmental-Environmental-

Resources Modeling Resources Modeling

and Managementand Management G.H. Leavesley, S.L. Markstrom, R.J. Viger, and L.E. Hay

U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO USA

STARTING POINTSSTARTING POINTS

There are no universal modelsThere are no universal models Models for different purposes require Models for different purposes require

different levels of detail and different levels of detail and comprehensivenesscomprehensiveness

Appropriate model process Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of applicationspatial and temporal scales of application

Modeling ConundrumModeling Conundrum

Experimental science builds on Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published based on earlier published hypotheses and resultshypotheses and results

Modelers tend to build from the Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models ground up because existing models are not well designed for are not well designed for incremental incremental improvement by othersimprovement by others

TOOL BOX MODELING TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWSVIEWS

Research Model Developer Research Model Developer Complex Complex DetailDetail

Application Model DeveloperApplication Model Developer Model UserModel User Resource ManagerResource Manager Policy Maker Policy Maker Condensed Condensed

AnalysisAnalysis

LEVELS OF MODULAR LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGNDESIGN

PROCESSPROCESS MODELMODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELSFULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELSLOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT

TOOLSTOOLS

Single Purpose

Multi-objective, Complex



DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLSANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

CRITERIA AND RULES CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE FOR GOOD MODULE

DESIGNDESIGN

relate directly to real world relate directly to real world components or processescomponents or processes

have input and output variables have input and output variables that are measurable valuesthat are measurable values

communicate solely via these communicate solely via these input and output variablesinput and output variables

Modules should

Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16

Model Building Tool - XMBUILD

SELECTED MODELS SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN AND MODULES IN

MMSMMS USGSUSGS

PRMSPRMS GSFLOWGSFLOW WEBMODWEBMOD

OTHEROTHER TOPMODELTOPMODEL Hydro-17 (NWS Hydro-17 (NWS

snowmelt)snowmelt) Sacramento Model Sacramento Model

(NWS)(NWS) Snowmelt Runoff Snowmelt Runoff

Model (SRM) (ARS)Model (SRM) (ARS) ENNS Model ENNS Model

(modified HBV, (modified HBV, Austria)Austria)




Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling

MODFLOW

PRMS

DAFLOW

GSFLOW -- Coupled GSFLOW -- Coupled PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, and Unsaturated Zone and Unsaturated Zone

ModelsModels

Streamflow

Unsaturated Zone Model:

PRMS to UNSAT UNSAT to MODFLOW

PRMS to SFR

PRMS to MODFLOW

MODFLOW to SFR




LOOSELEY COUPLED LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELSMODELS

Watershed Model

Hydraulics Model

Database

Fish Model

Data Management Interface (DMI)

MMS Model

Off-the-shelf Model


Watershed Model

Hydraulics Model

Fish Model

Velocity HSI - Brown Trout

00.20.40.6

0.81

1.2

0 1 2 3 4

velocity m/s

HS

I

Adult

Juvenile

Fingerling

Spawning


Watershed Model

Hydraulics Model

Fish Model

PRMSPRMS

Habitat Habitat Suitability Suitability

IndexIndex

Channel Geometry Analysis Program

(CGAP)

Coupled Model ResultsCoupled Model Results


Watershed Model

Hydraulics Model

Database

Fish Model

Data Management Interface (DMI)

MMS Model

Off-the-shelf Model

Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]

OBJECT USER INTEFACE (OUI)




Watershed and River Systems Management

Program

Recreation

Municipal & Industrial

Riparian Habitat

Hydropower

Irrigation

Endangered Species

Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues.

RiverWare – Lower Colorado River

Upper Gunnison River Upper Gunnison River DSSDSS

HydrologicDatabase

Hydromet

Real-time climate data feed

RiverWareReservoir and River System

Operations Model

DMI

DMI

DMI

Object User InterfaceInterface for data visualization

and modelingModular Modeling System

Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)

DMI

Generic DSS Framework Generic DSS Framework for a Wide Range of for a Wide Range of Management IssuesManagement Issues

AnyDatabase

Climate Data Source


and modeling

Modular Modeling SystemPhysical Process Models

DMI

DMI

DMI

MMI

Any Resource Management Model

WARSMP WARSMP BasinsBasins

Currently Active

Under Development

Gunnison, Truckee, Upper Rio Grande, Yakima

San Juan, Umatilla, Upper Columbia

Future

Bitterroot, Carson, Central Platte, Lower Rio Grande, Salmon


PROCESSPROCESS MODEL MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELSFULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELSLOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMSDECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT

TOOLSTOOLS

GIS WEASELDelineation:•Only requires elevation Grid as input

•Interactively delineate •Area of Interest•Many kinds of features

•Streams•Elevation bands•Landuse•Contributing areas•Topographic index•……

Vegetation Type (USFS)

Vegetation Density (USFS)

Land Use-Land Cover (USGS)

DIGITAL DATABASESDIGITAL DATABASES STATSGO Soils (USDA)

Satellite SW Radiation (U Md)

Monthly PET

AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

GIS WEASELParameterization:•200+ methods available•Easily add custom methods

•Configure recipes•Apply to feature maps

•Exploit many types of data•Produce maps and ASCII files of parameters

PARAMETER

PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHOD

MODEL RECIPE FILE

Multi-step CalibrationMulti-step Calibration

Multi-step calibration Multi-step calibration visualizationvisualization

ANALYSIS and ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLSSUPPORT TOOLS

Currently Available

Statistical and Graphical Analyses

Parameter Optimization

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

Beta TestingShuffle Complex Evolution Optimization

Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM)

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)

Visualization

Forecast MethodologiesForecast Methodologies

- Historic data as analog for the future

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)

-Synthetic time-series

Weather Generator

- Atmospheric model output

Dynamical Downscaling

Statistical Downscaling

MMS Development is MMS Development is Accomplished Through Accomplished Through

Collaborative Multi-Collaborative Multi-disciplinary Effortsdisciplinary Efforts

Sleepers River, Vermont

Trout Lake, Wisconsin

Panola Mountain, Georgia

Luquillo, Puerto Rico

Loch Vale, Colorado

WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM

USGS

WEBMODWEBMOD

PRMS

National Weather Service - Hydro17

TOPMODEL

Next step: Use tracers to constrain the hydrologic solutions

Use Chemical and Use Chemical and Isotopic Tracers to Isotopic Tracers to Evaluate Simulated Evaluate Simulated

Flow Paths and Flow Paths and Residence TimesResidence Times

Coupled WEBMOD and PHREEQC

Satellite image of the Rodeo and Chediski fires before they merged into one fire, eventually burning some 470,000 acres

Effects of Vegetation and Vegetation Effects of Vegetation and Vegetation Change on Water and Energy Change on Water and Energy

PartitioningPartitioning

Fool Creek Watershed, Fraser Experimental Forest, Colorado (714 acres)

Managed Natural

Issues: Process, Scale, Parameter Estimation

Vegetation Management ModelUS Forest Service,

Missoula, Mt

•Simulates vegetation patterns and processes emphasizing the dynamics of landscape level change. •Produces ensemble output

Integrating Science with Resource Management through Collaborative Approaches and

Adaptive Modeling Systems

Land Use Climate CO2 Human population Invasive species

GD WRD

BRDNMD

Physicalmodels

•Resource availability

•Public land management

•Restoration plans

•…

•Flood & drought impacts

•Vegetation change

•Wildland fire

•Grazing impacts

•Landslides

•Water quality

Science Synthesis Modeling Framework Development

NPS CESU

USFSBLM

SIMPPLLE +

Resource Management

Initial DSS Development

AreaUSGS, NPS, USFS, BLM, BIA, CO State University, N AZ University

Integrating Water-Integrating Water-Resource and Socio-Resource and Socio-

Economic ModelsEconomic Models Population and Demand ForecastsPopulation and Demand Forecasts Water MarketsWater Markets

(change in ownership in perpetuity)(change in ownership in perpetuity) Water BankingWater Banking

(lease options over some period of (lease options over some period of time)time)

Issue: The better the prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of water, the better the markets can perform.

This requires the full integration of physical-process and socio-economic models to optimize economic and institutional analyses.

Adding Water Banking Adding Water Banking to a Water Resources to a Water Resources

Decision-Support Decision-Support SystemSystem

HydrologicDatabase

Hydromet

Real-time climate data feed

RiverWareReservoir and River System

Operations Model


and modelingModular Modeling System

Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)

DMI

DMI

DMI

DMIWater

Banking

DMIs

MMS UNIVERSITY MMS UNIVERSITY COLLABORATIONCOLLABORATION

University of ArizonaUniversity of Arizona NSF fundedNSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid -- Sustainability of semi-Arid

Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA)Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) University of ColoradoUniversity of Colorado

NOAA fundedNOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecaststerm forecasts

University of Nevada RenoUniversity of Nevada Reno Desert Research Institute fundedDesert Research Institute funded – Watershed – Watershed

modeling and coupled SW/GW modelingmodeling and coupled SW/GW modeling Colorado State UniversityColorado State University

Interagency MOU funded – Interagency MOU funded – GeoLEM and GeoLEM and Parameter estimation, optimization, and Parameter estimation, optimization, and sensitivity analysis toolssensitivity analysis tools

Working with the NRCS to incorporate the USGS Modular Modeling

System into the NRCS forecasting

toolbox

Integrated Framework Integrated Framework DevelopmentDevelopment

Collaborative effort to integrate the Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the

Modular Modeling System (MMS)Modular Modeling System (MMS)

OMS PlatformM

odelC

ore

ModelB

uild

er

RZ

WQ

M

PR

MS

Data

base

Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte,…

Java C

om

pile

r

XM

L

Test

ing

C+

+

Oth

er…

- ARS - USGS - NRCS

-Friedrich Schiller University, Germany

Branding

Other Model Integration Other Model Integration ApproachesApproaches

U.S.U.S. BASINS (EPA)BASINS (EPA) FRAMES (DOE, NRC, DOD, EPA)FRAMES (DOE, NRC, DOD, EPA) DIAS (DOE)DIAS (DOE) XMS (WMS, GMS, SMS, … - EMS XMS (WMS, GMS, SMS, … - EMS

Inc.)Inc.) OMS (USDA)OMS (USDA)

InternationalInternational HarmonIT (Europe)HarmonIT (Europe) Catchment Modeling Toolkit Catchment Modeling Toolkit

(Australia)(Australia)

MMS SUMMARYMMS SUMMARY Integrated toolbox approach to model Integrated toolbox approach to model

development and application for water- and development and application for water- and environmental-resources managementenvironmental-resources management

Easily configured and/or enhanced for user-Easily configured and/or enhanced for user-specific needsspecific needs

Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systemsdecision support systems

Flexible framework approach enables the Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology as well as databases, and computer technology as well as changes in management objectiveschanges in management objectives

Open source software design allows many to Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costsshare resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs

Chicken Soup for the Modeling Chicken Soup for the Modeling SoulSoul

“A fool with a tool is still a fool.”

System Development magazine

POINTPOINT

MORE INFORMATIONMORE INFORMATION

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mmshttp://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/weaselweasel

http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/warsmpwarsmp

http://oms.ars.usda.govhttp://oms.ars.usda.gov

http://www.iscmem.orghttp://www.iscmem.org

Documents

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A Toolbox for Water- and Environmental-Resources Modeling and Management G.H. Leavesley, S.L. Markstrom, R.J. Viger,