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The Moneyball Effect: Teaching AP Statistics through Sports
Paul BuckleyGonzaga College High School
Washington, [email protected]
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Why?Growth of Statistics
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Why use Sports?
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So how can Sports help us learn AP Statistics?
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Statistical Inference Through Sports
Miguel Cabrera vs Austin JacksonWho is really responsible for Detroit’s
success?
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Two-Proportion Z Test
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The Data
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Simulation results
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Likelihood = p-value
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Experimental Design Through Sports
Which is the better putter?
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The ExperimentControl – putter, ball, ‘course’,
swingRandomization – prevent ‘hot
hand’Easier to identify the response
variable and what would affect itReplicationBlindingBlocking
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Experimental Design Through Sports
Which is the better putter?
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Regression Through Sports
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGf6LNWY9AI
Moneyball scene:
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Regression Through Sports
Offense vs DefenseWhich is the better predictor of wins?
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0.7993r 0.7296r
Think of the possibilities…Soccer: Free Kicks vs GoalsHockey: Power Plays vs GoalsGolf, which is a better predictor
of success, greens in regulation or number of putts?
Tennis: unforced errors or 1st serve percentage vs points won
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What else?Putting together a relay team
(track, swimming) – lesson in z-scores, normal distributions
Game strategies – situational hitting – conditional probabilities
Layups vs jumpers vs 3-pointers – non-linear regression
And ……?
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