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The Most Important Topic In the History of Humanity
J.MorrisHicks
Victoria,BritishColumbiaJuly23,2017
Survival of the Human Species
Whatisthattopic?
TheContentsofthisLectureMayChangeYour
LifeForever!
World’sFirstMainstreamArticleAbouttheSingle
BiggestThreattotheFutureof
Humanity
“Myfeelingwas,andis,ifthere'sa
onepercentchancethatwe’vesetoffachainreactionthat
couldendthehumanrace,thenthatshouldbe
somethingthatthepublicknowsandthinksabout.”
LifebeganonEarth…
• About4billionyearsago
• Humansemergedasaspecies
just200,000yearsago
Let’sStartattheBeginningEarth,Onesmallplanetamongbillionsofplanetsinourgalaxy,whichisjustoneofbillionsofgalaxiesintheuniverse.
Puttingourtimehereinperspective
• Ifwecrammedall4billionyearsof“life
onEarth”intojustoneyear…
• Humanshavebeenhereforjust26
minutesofthelasthourofthatyear
20SecondsSinceChrist
FourHugeGrosslyUnsustainableSituations
1. Overpopulation
2. Live,work,travel&STUFF
3. Fossilfueldependence
4. OURFOODCHOICES
Ourfoodchoicesgiveus…
HOPESingularpowerofourfoodchoicesto
PromoteHealth,HopeandHarmonyonPlanetEarth
LAND–WATER–ENERGYAFactorofTEN
WhatCanWe“Hope”For?
1. Toslow,stoporreversemostchronicdisease
2. Effortlessandpermanentweight-loss
3. Reduceworldhunger,oceanacidification,species
extinction,waterpollutionandmuch,muchmore
4. Returnmillionsoffarmingacreagetoforests
5. Greatlyreduceoreliminate#1causeofclimatechange
PROBLEMisthatwemayhavewaitedTOOLONG
CarryingCapacity
How many humans can the planet sustain indefinitely?
• AverageEuropeanLifestyle:TWOBillion
• AmericanLifestyle:ONEBILLION
Source:GlobalFootprintNetwork--footprintnetwork.org
1.OverpopulationHowCanWeSolveIt?
1. DailyBirthsminusDeaths=220,000(netgain)
2. 380,000Births–160,000Deaths=+220,000
3. ReduceBirthsto100,000/day(U.N.&Religions)
4. =Populationdecreaseof60,000/day(160-100)
5. =Annualdecreaseof22million
6. 45yearstolowerpopulationbyonebillion
7. We’llneed160yearstohit4BillionMark(yr.2177)
8. Details?Abovemyjobgrade
2.OverconsumptionSTUFF:GlobalEconomybasedonInfiniteGrowthinaWorldofFiniteResources
1. NeweconomybasedonSustainability
2. U.N.DevelopsSustainabilityRules
3. ViolationsPunishablebyDeath
4. NewGREENcitiesallovertheworld
5. Details?Abovemyjobgrade
110TONSofFuelperTrip
3.BurningFossilFuelsAspopulationandconsumptiondrops,this
problemwilltakecareofitself.
1. SustainabilityRuleswillfavorGREENenergy
2. Theruleswillalsodiscourageforeigntrade
3. Airtravelwillonlybepermittedforemergencies
4. GREENmanufacturingandfoodproductionwillbe
mostlylocal
5. Fossilfuelconsumptionexpectedtodropby90%
6. Details?Abovemyjobgrade
FossilFuelReduction?
4.OurFoodChoicesWhySoImportant?
1. Theydeterminehowtheplanetisused
2. Theyhaveahugeimpactonourhealth
3. #1DriveroftheCostofHealthCare
4. #1Driverofdeforestation*
5. #1DriverofSoilErosion*
6. #1DriverofOceanAcidification*
7. #1DriverofSpeciesExtinction*
8. #1DriverofClimateChange*
*Relatedtotheout-of-controlgrowthofourcivilizedpopulation
Here’sHowWe’reDoingonFOODCHOICES
• FocusingonwhatweDOeat• Notwhatwe’reavoiding• Implied“wiggleroom”
The closer we get to eating a diet of whole, plant-based foods, the better off we will be. ---T. Colin Campbell PhD, Cornell University
Notnecessarilyvegetarianorvegan
LivestockConsumptionbyRegion
SpeciesExinction
August2010ReportfromtheU.N.
“Scientistsestimatethat150to200speciesof
plant,insect,birdandmammalbecomeextinct
every24hours…nearly1,000timesthe“natural”
or“background”rate…greaterthananything
theworldhasexperiencedfor65millionyears.”
CouldHumansBecomeExtinct?
Let’sLookatHistoryEasterIsland–BeforeHumansArrived
After1200YearsofHumanControl
InSearchof“BigPicture”Scientists
1. Narrowfieldsofstudy
2. Fewunderstandthe“bigpicture”
3. Mostgetpaidbyconservativeentities
4. BOLDviewscanputcareeratrisk
JacquesCousteau
“Humankindmay,ormaynotbe,partoftheplanthatnaturehasfortheEarthinthefuture.Lifewillbereborn,butfirsttheworldasweknowitnowwilldie.”1997at87
Frenchnavalofficer,explorer,conservationist,filmmaker,innovator,scientist,photographer,authorandresearcher
FrankFenner,MD,Scientist,andEnvironmentalist
"Homosapienswillbecomeextinct,perhapswithin100years…It'san
irreversiblesituation.Ithinkit'stoolate."2010atage95
PeterWadhams,ScD
“TheIPCCisguiltyofconspiracyofcomplacency…OuronlychanceistobeginurgentlyremovingCO2
fromtheatmosphere.”2016
StephenEmmott,PhD
“Weurgentlyneedtodo—andImeanactuallydo—somethingradicaltoavertaglobalcatastrophe.ButIdon’tthinkwewill.Ithinkwe’ref_____.”
ManagescomputationalscienceatMicrosoftinUK,visitingprofessoratUniv.ofOxford,managesateamofscientistswhostudyalltrendsthataffectourlives.Heendshis2013book…
JamesLovelock,PhD
BBC2010“Whenyouseethewholepicture,itisreallyfearsomelybad…IftheEarthimprovesasaresultofourpresence,thenwewillflourish.Ifitdoesn't,thenwewilldieoff…"Ifearthatnotmanyofuswillsurvive,atbestaboutabillion--possiblyalotlessthanthat.”
Independentscientist,environmentalist,futurist;bestknownforhisGaiaHypothesis,whichpostulatesthattheEarthfunctionsasaself-regulatingsystem.NASAcontractor,winnerofmanyawards,PhDfromLondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicine.(Aliveandwellat98)
T.ColinCampbell,PhD
“Thecloserwegettoeatingadietofwhole,plant-basedfoods,thebetter
offwewillbe.”
Cornellprofessorwhodirectedthelargeststudyoftherelationshipbetweendiet
andhealthinhistory
“Nolessthanourfutureasaspecieshangsinthebalance.”
BillMcKibben,Activist’82HarvardGrad,Famousforclimatechange
“Tobeentirelyhonest,wedon’tknowforsurethatwecanslowdownglobalwarmingenoughtomatter.We’ve
waitedaverylongtimetogetstarted.”FromApril2017video
Environmentalist,Author,Journalist,founded350.orgin2008andwontheGandhiPeaceAwardin2013
DataSuggestsWeHaven’tStarted
NowinUnchartedWaters
Global Sea Ice Area (nsidc.org) Climate Change Tipping Point?
3-22-17SeaIceNews
SeaIceSinkstoRecordLevelsatBOTH
PolesonMarch7andMarch3intheArctic
andAntarcticrespectively.OnMarch3,seaicearoundAntarcticahititslowest
extenteverrecordedbysatellitesattheendofsummer
intheSouthernHemisphere,asurprisingturnofevents
afterdecadesofmoderateseaiceexpansion.
3 Times as Many Icebergs!
Arethingsgettingbetter?
Runaway Luxury Train
Faster. More People. More Comforts.
RobertGoodland,PhDWorldBankEnvironmentalSpecialistfor23Years
Sept.2013“Nowthereappearstobeonlyoneremainingpragmaticwaytoreverseclimatechangebeforeit’stoolate–andthat’sbytakingquickandlarge-scaleactionsin
food,agricultureandforestry.”
2009“Livestockandtheirby-productsactuallyaccountforatleast32,564milliontonsofCO2peryearor51%ofannualworldwideGhGemissions.”
FoodChoicesnolongerEnough
1. Tippingpoints:Waterconsumption,climate
change,speciesextinction
2. Theproblemwith“tippingpoints”isthatyou
don’tknowwheretheyareuntilyouhave
passedthem
3. Wemustdramaticallyslowthemassiveheat
engineknownasmoderncivilization
MyOwnConclusionsAbout saving our civilization and our species
1. Population.Consumption.FossilFuels.
2. IFthereisachance,FOODisparamount
3. Canmovetheneedleinfiveyears
MediaisNOTreportingthe “big picture” about what we NEED to know
1. Icebergs.Mediareportsabouthumansafety,navigationalbenefitsand
beauty.Failstomentionpossibleclimatechangetippingpoints
2. ClimateChange.MediareportsoneveryfireinCaliforniabutfailstoreport
onmassivedeforestationandrecordlevelsofCO2inouratmosphere
3. WaterShortage.Mediareportsonhumanitarianeffortstoprovidewaterfor
thebillionsofpeoplewhodon’thaveenoughbutfailtoreportonthesteady
declineofunderwateraquifersthatbillionsneedforfood
4. EconomicGrowth.Mediareportsthe“goodnews”abouteconomicgrowthin
ourcountrybutnevermentionsthegrosslyunsustainableindustrialmachine
ClimateChangeALARM!
"Nothingshortofaperceivedglobalemergencycaninfluenceenoughleadersingovernment,industryandacademiatoquicklyjoinforcesinmakingthereversalofclimatechangetheentireworld'stop
priority.Thentheymustworkurgentlytogetherasifourfutureasaspeciesdependedontheirsuccess--
becauseitVERYlikelydoes!"--J.MorrisHicks
Dowehaveachance?
Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful,
committed, citizens can change the world. Indeed,
it is the only thing that ever has. — Margaret Mead
People who are crazy enough to think that they
can change the world—are the ones who do.
— Steve Jobs
Blog:hpjmh.com
4leafprogram.com
4leafsurvey.com
archby4leaf.com
J.Morris(Jim)Hicks
917-399-9700
