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The Multi-State Shale Research Collaborative. By Michael Wood and Mark Price. The Keystone Research Center/Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center Policy Matters Ohio The Fiscal Policy Institute (New York) The West Virginia Budget and Policy Center The Commonwealth Institute (Virginia). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Multi-State Shale Research Collaborative
By Michael Wood and Mark Price
• The Keystone Research Center/Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center
• Policy Matters Ohio• The Fiscal Policy Institute (New York)• The West Virginia Budget and Policy Center• The Commonwealth Institute (Virginia)
• Understanding the Economic and Human Service Impacts of the development of shale oil and gas resources in our region– Economic Impacts– Case Study (Tioga PA, Greene PA, Carroll OH,
Wetzel WV)– Human Service Impact Report– Guidebook for Local Officials
Our Presentation today will be focused on documenting the rise of drilling and its employment impacts.
Where is the Shale?
Source. Independent Petroleum Association of America, http://oilindependents.org/utica-the-shale-revolution-coming-to-ohio/
Pennsylvania
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Well Permits and Drilling for Pennsylvania Shale Gas Peaked in 2011, New Producing Wells Increased in 2012
Permits Wells SpudNew Producing Average Operating Rigs
Unco
nven
tiona
l or S
hale
Wel
ls
Drill
Rig
s
Sources. PA Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP)- permits, drilled/spud, production and Baker Hughes - rig counts
Shale Dominating PA Production
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
90% of Pennsylvania Natural Gas Now Comes from Shale
Conventional Unconventional (Shale)
Nat
ural
Gas
Pro
ducti
on (m
illio
n cu
bic f
eet (
MM
cf)) 2012: 2.256 TCF of total production
(2.041 TCF from shale)
2006: 176 BCF total production
Sources. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and PA DEP
O&G Deed Transfers May be a Good Indicator – If You Can Get the Data
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
45%
67%
Greene County PA O&G-Related Deed Transactions Spike in 2011
# of Oil & Gas Transactions O&G Transactions Share of Total Value TransferredShale Wells Drilled
Shar
e of
Tra
nsfe
rs O
il &
Gas
Rel
ated
Shal
e W
ells
Drill
ed
Source. Author’s analysis of Greene County (PA) Register and Recorder’s Office data
West Virginia
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Permits Wells SpudNew Producing Average Operating Rigs
Num
ber o
f Mar
cellu
s Sha
le W
ells
Aver
age
Ope
ratin
g Ri
gs
Sources. WV Geological and Economic Survey (WVGES) - permits, drilled/spud, production and Baker Hughes - rig counts
Shale Growing as a Share of Total WV Gas Production
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Shale Accounts for 63% of Natural Gas Produced in West Virginia in 2012
Conventional Unconventional (Shale) From Oil Wells
Nat
rual
Gas
Pro
ducti
on (M
illio
n Cu
bic F
eet M
Mcf
)
2004: 197 BCF
2012: 539 BCF total (338 BCF from shale)
Sources. EIA and WVGES
Ohio
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ohio Shale Activity Ramping Up
Permits Wells SpudNew Producing Average Operating Rigs
Num
ber o
f Sha
le W
ells
Drill
Rig
s
Sources. OH Dept. of Natural Resources (DNR) - permits, drilled/spud, production and Baker Hughes - rig counts
After Years of Decline, Gas Production Starting to Grow in OH Due to Shale
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Shale Gas Production Just Emerging in Ohio as Conventional Gas Production Declines
Conventional Gas Wells Conventional Oil Wells Shale Wells
Nat
ural
Gas
Pro
ducti
on (M
illio
n Cu
bic F
eet M
Mcf
)
2012: 84 BCF total (12.9 BCF from shale)
2000: 105 BCF total
Sources. EIA and OH DNR
OH Oil Production Dropping, but Shale May Change Things
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Shale Oil Accounted for 13% of Total Ohio Oil Production in 2012. Production Still Only Half of What was Produced in 1990.
Conventional Oil Production Shale Oil Production
Oil
Prod
uctio
n (t
hous
ands
of b
arre
ls)
Shale Oil: 639,000 bar-rels of 4.86 million produced in 2012
Sources. EIA and OH DNR
New York
• To date, 22 Marcellus Shale wells have been drilled in New York
• 6 wells actively producing• 16 wells “shut in” – drilled, but not producing• 184 permit applications submitted to NY Dept.
of Env. Cons. to drill in Marcellus Shale• Moratorium on new permits since 2008
Wells in Southern Tier
Source. NY Department of Environmental Conservation
Maryland• Moratorium in 2011• Limited to Westernmost Counties
Source. Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE)
Virginia
6 H Wells – Buchanan49 H Wells – Dickenson7 H Wells - Wise
62 total horizontal gas wells drilled since 2007. 60 drilled from 2008 through 2011.
Source. VA Department of Mines Minerals and Energy (MME)
One company has expressed interest in MS in Rockingham
Employment Impacts
Employment Impacts
Employment Impacts
Employment Impacts
Employment Impacts
Employment Impacts
Next Steps in Research• Finishing economic impact release• Case studies visits complete, writing report• Used case study experience to help identify social service
impacts to investigate. Data being collected and analyzed.
Contacts:Mark Price [email protected]
Mike Wood [email protected] or (717) 255-7181