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The National Climate AssessmentOverview of Status and Progress
NCADACAugust 16, 2011
Katharine JacobsOffice of Science and Technology Policy
http://assessment.globalchange.gov
2
NCADAC Executive Secretariat• Jerry Melillo, Chair
Marine Biological Laboratory
• Terese Richmond, Vice-ChairGordon Derr, LLP
• Gary Yohe, Vice-ChairWesleyan University
• James Buizer Arizona State University
• David GustafsonMonsanto Company
• Sharon HaysComputer Sciences Corporation
• Thomas KarlSubcommittee on Global Change Research
• Jo-Ann LeongHawaii Institute of Marine Biology and Oregon State University
• Susanne MoserSusanne Moser Research & Consulting and Stanford University
• Richard MossUniversity of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
• Lindene PattonZurich Financial Services
• Andrew RosenbergUniversity of New Hampshire, Conservation International
• Donald Wuebbles University of Illinois
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NCADAC Working Groups• Scenarios and Regional Summaries (Moss)• Request for Information (Patton, Fleming)• Peer Review, Information Standards, and Access (Richmond, Hays) • Engagement, Communication, and Evaluation (Maibach, Moser)• Regional Coordination (Yohe, Carter)• Sectoral Coordination (Buizer, Gade)• Science of Climate Change (Karl, Wuebbles)• Agenda for Climate Change Science (Janetos, Liverman)• Adaptation and Mitigation (Bierbaum, Lee, Smith)• Indicators Development and Evaluation (Janetos and ?)• International (Hales)• Long Term Process (?)
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NCA Goal and Vision (Working Group 1)
• The overarching goal is to enhance the ability of the United States to anticipate, mitigate and adapt to changes in the global environment.
• The vision is to advance an inclusive, broad-based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the United States.
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Strategic Plan (Working Group 1)
• Sustainable process with multiple products over time• New topics, cross-sectoral studies• Consistent national matrix of indicators• Central coordination, multiple partners• Regional and sectoral networks building assessment capacity• Recognizes international context• Engagement and communications focus• Web-based data and tools for decision support• Process workshops to establish methodologies
Initiate “topical” and assessmentprocess reports that will be completed at a defined date post 2013.
Full draft of report available for public and expert review.
Sectors
Cross-cutting topics
Regions
2013
2014
2017
20122011
The Continuing NCA Process (WG 1)
Full assessment reports
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Regional and sectoral assessments and stakeholder engagement
Technical Input Reports due March 1, 2012
Expressions of Interest Due October 1, 2011
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Highlights of Outline for 2013 Report
• The scientific basis for climate change• Sectors and sectoral cross-cuts• Regions and biogeographical cross-cuts• Mitigation and adaptation• Agenda for climate change science• The NCA long-term process
Working Group 1: For Regions and Sectors, start with the 2009 document and focus on what’s new
“The Art of the Possible”
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Regional Teams Now Established (Regions WG)
Region Lead Agency Lead Contact NCADAC Liaison
Northeast NOAA Rosenzweig Yohe
Southeast +Caribbean
NOAA Ingram, Carter, Dow, Brown
Carter
Midwest NOAA, USDA Hatfield, Scavia Pryor
Great Plains DOI, NOAA Kluck, Brown, Shafer Posey
Southwest DOI, NOAA Overpeck, Garfin Liverman
Northwest DOI, NOAA Mote MoteAlaska + Arctic DOI, NOAA Holland-Bartels, Partain,
TrainorChapin
Hawaii + Pacific Islands
DOI, NOAA Marra, Spooner Leong
First Regional Meeting in SW – Aug 2-4, 2011
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Regions
Northeast
Southeast and Caribbean
Midwest
Great Plains
Northwest
Southwest
Alaska and Arctic
Hawaii and Pacific Islands
+ Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands
+ Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands
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Biogeographical Cross-Cuts• Oceans and marine resources (Team has formed, led by
Rosenberg and Armbrust; NOAA is lead agency)• Coastal zone, development, and ecosystems, with case studies
including– SF Bay Delta– Chesapeake– Gulf Coast
• Drainage basins (WATERSHEDS?), with case studies including– Great Lakes– Colorado River– Columbia River Watersheds may be handled as “nested
assessments within Regional teams,” e.g., Colorado in SW, Columbia in NW
First Biogeographical X-Cut meeting Colorado River Evaluation of Assessment CapacityJune 6-7, 2011
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Sector Teams Established (Sectors WG)Sector Lead Agency Lead Contact NCADAC LiaisonWater Resources USACE, USGS Bales, Pietrowsky Georgakakos, FlemingEnergy Supply and Use
DOE Vallario Franco, Dell
Transportation DOT Rypinski SchwartzAgriculture USDA Walthall GustafsonForestry USFS Vose, Peterson MelilloEcosystems and Biodiversity
USGS Carter Kareiva
Human Health HHS Balbus, Trtanj McGeehin, Luber
First Sectoral Assessment meetingForestry Sector, July 11-14, 2011
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Cross-Sector Teams (Sectors WG)Cross-Sector Lead Agency Lead Contact NCADAC LiaisonWater, Energy, Land DOE Vallario JanetosUrban, Infrastructure, Vulnerabilities
DOE, NOAA Vallario, Rosenzweig Fleming
Tribal Land and Resources
NASA, NOAA Maynard, Kluck Bennett
Land Use and Land Cover Change
USFS, USGS Loveland, Patel-Weynand
Rural Communities, Ag., Development
USDA Walsh Hales
Impacts on Biogeochmeical Cycles
DOE, USDA Kuperberg, Olson Melillo
First X-Sectoral Team meetings,Water-Energy-Land 7-13-11Urban-Infrastructure-Vulnerability 7-20-11
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Other WG Milestones
• RFI – Issued July 13, 2011• Scenarios and Regional Summaries – First presentations,
SW Regional Assessment Meeting, Aug 2-3• Global Change Information Portal – Approval of initial
governance proposal and establishment of Project Manager (Anne Waple) at USGCRP Principals meeting Aug 11
• Engagement / Communication / Evaluation – developed preliminary logic model to guide evaluation, preliminary implementation plan for communications underway
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Communicating about NCA• Presentations about the NCA
– 8 Listening Sessions at professional society meetings– 20 Workshops (process, regional, sectoral)– 20+ Informational Briefings (agencies, Congressional staff,
NGOs, invited keynotes, etc.)
• Presentation materials– Two-page “Introduction to the National Climate Assessment”– Standard informational presentation on the NCA
• Website (initial website running, revisions underway)• Newsletter distributed every 6 weeks (+) via email to
2600+ people
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Strategic Planning
• “Sustained Assessments” is one of four goals in the draft USGCRP strategic plan for the next ten years; draft to be released to the public within a month or so. Developing this draft has been a major effort involving a writing team of 60 people; Fred Lipschultz has been representing the Assessment.
• “Build and Sustain Assessments” is proposed as one of five FY 13 USGCRP Priorities; a template showing programs that are critical to protect in light of budget cutting exercises is being developed.
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Process Workshops1. Midwest Regional Workshop2. Strategic Planning3. Outline and Workplan4. International Context5. Communications6. Knowledge Management7. Regional and Sectoral Approach8. Ecological Indicators (coming soon)9. Scenarios (coming soon)10. Modeling (coming soon)11. Valuation (coming soon)12. Vulnerability Assessment13. Physical Indicators (coming soon)14. Societal Indicators (coming soon)
Blue = Report availableBlack = Summary available (no formal report)
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Outcomes of the NCA(Engagement, Communication, and Evaluation WG)
• Ongoing, relevant analysis of scientific understanding of climate change impacts, risk, and vulnerability
• Enhanced timely access to Assessment-related data from multiple sources
• Systematic evaluation of progress towards reducing risk, vulnerability, and impacts
• A sustained process for informing an integrated research program
• Evaluation of the implications of alternative adaptation and mitigation policy options
• Information that provides the foundation for a science-based national discourse on climate change
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NCA StaffOSTP and USGCRP / Washington, DC• Katharine Jacobs
NCA Director, OSTP• Sheila O’Brien*
Chief of Staff• Emily Therese Cloyd*
Public Participation and Engagement Coordinator• Bryce Golden-Chen*
Program Administrator• Ralph Cantral
Sectoral Coordinator (NOAA detailee)• Fred Lipschultz
Regional Coordinator (NASA detailee)• Bill Emanuel
Senior Scientist (DOE detailee)• Nancy Grimm
Senior Scientist (NSF detailee)• Julie Maldonado*
Engagement Assistant• Melissa Kenney
AAAS Fellow, NOAA
• Chelsea Combest-FriedmanKnauss Fellow, NOAA
• Chelcy Ford Scientist (USFS detailee)
NOAA NCDC / Asheville, NC• Anne Waple
NOAA Assessments Manager• Ken Kunkel
Science Lead for Assessments• Brooke Stewart
Assessments Services Scientific Coordinator• John Keck
Technical Lead• Doreen DiCarlo
Program Coordinator• Julie Moore
Administrative Support
NOAA / Washington, DC and Silver Spring, MD• Cynthia Decker
NCADAC Designated Federal Official• Kandis Wyatt
NCADAC Designated Federal Official (Alternate)• Stephanie Herring
NOAA Liaison to the National Climate Assessment
* = UCAR STAFF
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August-October ScheduleDate & Location Event NCA Staff NCADAC Member
August 18Lakewood, CO
NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Great Plains
Lipschultz
August 23-25Keshena, WI
Great Lakes Tribal Climate Change Summit
Cantral Bennett, Wuebbles
September 4-8Seattle, WA
American Fisheries Society Grimm
September 12Anchorage, AK
NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Alaska
Lipschultz Chapin
September 12-14Ann Arbor, MI
Great Lakes Coastal Habitat Conservation Workshop
Cloyd
September 13-14Seattle, WA
NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Pacific Northwest
Lipschultz Mote
September 26Chicago, IL
Enhancing Decision Making (ACCO, USGCRP)
Cloyd
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August-October ScheduleDate & Location Event NCA Staff NCADAC Member
September 29-30Atlanta, GA
NCA Regional Team Organizing Meeting: Southeast
Kunkel Carter
October 4Alexandria, VA
NASA Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop
Emanuel, Cloyd, Lipschultz
October 16-19San Antonio, TX
ASA-CCSA-SSSA, Soil, Crop, and Enviro Sci Meeting
October 27Denver, CO
WCRP Open Meeting with proposed USGCRP Town Hall
Oct 29 – Nov 2Washington, DC
American Public Health Association
Oct 31 – Nov 2Washington DC
2011 GreenGov Symposium (CEQ and ACCO)
Jacobs
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Questions???