The National Political Climate

1000 BroadwaySuite 292

Oakland, California

1726 M Street NWSuite 500

Washington, D.C.

The National Political Climate

Presentation by Celinda Lake

to the CWA Legislative-Political Conference 2006

2

Opinions of Bush’s agenda and leadership qualities are dropping.

In ballot tests, Democrats are at highs not seen since the GOP in 1994 – but voters view the parties as equally distasteful.

While the map and the mood still help incumbents, several have seen their re-elect and job performance drop. Voters want members who will bring checks and balances to Washington.

Voters continue to trust Republicans on terrorism and foreign policy – but by a much reduced margin.

The mood is for change. Voters also respond to arguments about economic security and the cost of corruption.

Key Points

3

A clear majority believe the country is headed down the wrong track

9%

32%60%

Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06

Wrong Track

Do you think things in this country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

Right Direction

4

A similar majority of Americans disapprove of the way President Bush

is handling his job

7%

34%59%

CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults

DisapproveApprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the way

George W. Bush is handling his job as

President?

5

Voters are divided onBush’s leadership qualities

37% 62%

44% 55%

52% 48%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Is a strong leader

Honest andtrustworthy

Understands peoplelike you

Yes No

Please tell me whether the following statements apply to Bush or not.

ABC News/Washington Post – 3/2-5/06 – 1000 adults

6

Majorities of Americans disapprove of Bush’s performance on key issues

43%

50%

39%

55%

32%

60%

30%

65%

27%

60%

27%

64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Terrorism Foreign Affairs**

Economy Iraq Energy Health Care **

Approve Disapprove

** Gallup – 2/6-9/06 – 1,002 adultsCBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1,018 adults

7

Iraq and the economy dominate voters’ concerns

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

5%

5%

9%

24%

13%

Iraq war

Economy

Terrorism

Health care

George W. Bush

Defense/Military

Poverty/Homelessness

Domestic issues

Education

Energy crisis

Morality

Political leaders

Budget deficit

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults

8

On their personal top issue, voters trust Democrats over Bush or the GOP Congress

33%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

PresidentBush

Democrats inCongress

33%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

GOPers inCongress


Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll -- 1000 LVs, SPLIT SAMPLE – 2/12-15/06

Thinking about the issue you just mentioned [“number one issue you and your family are concerned about”], who do you think would do a better job solving that problem ___ or the Democrats in Congress?

9

Voters trust Bush on terrorism,but are split on Iraq and taxes

37% 54% 4%4%

44% 46% 5%6%

45% 48% 3%5%

50% 42% 3%6%

51% 39% 5%5%

51% 33% 12% 4%

51% 38% 6%5%

55% 34% 6%5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strengthening Social Security

Improving education

Holding down federal spending

Improving the economy

Keeping America prosperous

Dealing with Iraq

Holding the line on taxes

Safeguarding America from terrorist

Dems Bush None Unsure

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or the Democrats in Congress.

Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll -- 1000 LVs, SPLIT SAMPLE – 2/12-15/06

+21

+13

+18

+12

+8

-3

-2

-17

DEM-REP

10

Voters are split on who shares their values and who has the right priorities

40% 30% 22% 8%

42% 44% 8% 5%

46% 40% 9% 4%

55% 35% 7%3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

For the middle class

Setting the right priorities

Shares your values

Cracking down oncorruption in Washington

Dems GOP None Unsure

Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job on this issue or better represents this quality: the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress.


+20

+6

-2

+10

DEM-REP

11

Congressional Democrats and Republicans are similarly distasteful to voters

27 19-20-25

26 18-18-30

15 30-10-43

20 22-12-39

-65 -45 -25 -5 15 35 55

Dick Cheney

George W. Bush

Republicans inCongress


Smw fav

Str fav

Smw unf

Str unf


For each one, please tell me if you have heard of that person or organization, and if so, whether you have a favorable of unfavorable impression of that person or organization. [Is that somewhat or strongly?]

-9

-8

-4

-1

42

45

44

46

51

53

48

45

12

Voters overwhelmingly blame both parties for Washington corruption

20%11%

64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Republican Party Democratic Party Both


Which party –the Republican Party or the Democratic Party or both parties equally – do you think is most responsible for the current problems facing Congress on the issues of lobbying reform and Congressional reform?

13

While voters are unhappy with Congress, they approve of their member

9%

28%

18%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Approve Disapprove

31%

31%

9%

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Approve Disapprove

“YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS”CONGRESS


63%

25%

37%

56%-19 +38

14

Nationally, Americans plan on voting for the Democratic candidate by a 14-point margin

7%

53%

39%

CNN/USA Today/Gallup – 1020 RVs – 2/28-3/1/06

Republican

If the election were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your

district?

Democrat

+14Democrat

Largest advantage for an opposition

party since the GOP in early 1994. [Gallup]

15

In contested House districts, the generic Democrat is favored by 4 points

41%

45%

14%

Republican

If the election were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your

district?

Democrat

Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – n=241 – 2/12-15/06

Undecided

+4Democrat

16

The most competitive Senate races are in all regions of the country

Casey, Jr. – 50Casey, Jr. – 50Santorum* – 40Santorum* – 40

1/25/061/25/06

McCaskill – 47McCaskill – 47Talent* – 44Talent* – 44

1/16/061/16/06

Cardin – 41Cardin – 41Steele – 32Steele – 32

11/1/0511/1/05

Menendez – 42Menendez – 42Kean, Jr. – 37Kean, Jr. – 37

3/9/063/9/06

Morrison – 50Morrison – 50Burns* – 43Burns* – 43

2/7/062/7/06

Brown - 37Brown - 37DeWine* – 46DeWine* – 46

12/4/0512/4/05

Klobuchar – 45Klobuchar – 45Kennedy – 42Kennedy – 42

2/20/062/20/06

Brown – 36Brown – 36Chafee* – 38Chafee* – 38

2/6/062/6/06

Ten most competitive U.S. Senate races, as chosen by Ten most competitive U.S. Senate races, as chosen by The Hotline.The Hotline.Survey qualities vary. Candidates determined by primary leaders.Survey qualities vary. Candidates determined by primary leaders.

Asterisk denotes incumbents. Asterisk denotes incumbents.

Cantwell* – 50Cantwell* – 50McGavick – 39McGavick – 39

Ford, Jr. – 38Ford, Jr. – 38Bryant – 37Bryant – 37

10/20/0510/20/052/16/062/16/06

OPEN (Corzine)OPEN (Corzine)

OPEN (Sarbanes)OPEN (Sarbanes)

OPEN (Frist)OPEN (Frist)

OPEN (Dayton)OPEN (Dayton)


Oakland, California


Washington, D.C.

Key IssuesIraq

The Economy

Medicare

Minimum Wage

18

Americans are pessimistic about Iraq – their #1 issue

41%

5%

54%

Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or

should the U.S. have stayed out?

How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq?

5%

31%30%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Well BadlyCBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults

36%

62%Stayed Out

Right Thing

-26

19

Voters do not support an immediate withdrawal of all troops from Iraq

27%3%

38%

9%

23%

Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S.

should do now about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq?

Withdrawall

Withdrawsome

Keep as now

More

CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults

20

Voters do not believe either partyhas a plan for Iraq

34%

65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Does Does not

24%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Do Do not

Do you think the BUSH ADMINISTRATION does or does not have a clear plan for

handling the situation in Iraq?

ABC News/Washington Post – 3/2-5/06 – 1000 adults

Do you think the DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS do or do not have a clear plan

for handling the situation in Iraq?

21

Americans remain pessimistic about the economy

41%

59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Excellent/good Not good/poor* Darker colors show intensity

Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

ABC News/Washington Post, Jan.29, 1,000 adults, MOE +/-3%

22

Voters tend to be pessimistic about their children’s standard of living in the future

Thinking about the economy and standard of living, do you think your children will be better off, worse off, or about the same as you when they are your age now. Well what would you imagine it will be like for today’s children?

18%

52%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Better Off Worse Off About the Same

“The economy frustrates me. I have two teenaged sons at home. My dad used to beat

me over the head you know to go to college or you’re finished, go to college or you’re

finished. I didn’t listen to my dad, I didn’t finish college. He was right. For my sons, it’s

even more dramatically true.” OH Man


23

The more seniors learn about Medicare Part D, the less they like it

Democracy Corps – 1/25-30/06 – 1,000 likely voters

As you know, there is now a new prescription drug benefit under Medicare for seniors. How do you rate the program – mostly positively or mostly negatively?

24

Minimum wage ballot initiatives won big in 2004

Yes71%

No29% Yes

68%

No32%

FLORIDA NEVADA

Bush: 52 / Kerry: 47 Bush: 50 / Kerry: 48

25

The minimum wage is a winning issue within both parties

Florida

Democrats Republicans

% Yes 89% 57%

% No 10% 36%

Nevada

% Yes 92% 53%

% No 5% 43%

After I read each one, please tell me if you voted yes, in favor of the initiative, or no, against the initiative, or did you not vote on this initiative?

Lake Snell Perry/ACORN/BISC – November 2004

26

Minimum wage initiatives do not provoke a backlash

In Florida, 23 percent of strong Democrats – but only 11 percent of strong Republicans – were motivated by a living wage ballot measure.

In Nevada, 36 percent of strong Democrats – but only 7 percent of strong Republicans – were motivated by a living wage ballot measure.

27

Strong Minimum Wage Themes

No one who works full-time should live in poverty.

Minimum wage workers make only $206 a week, many of them parents and adults trying to raise children and make ends meet.

Raising the minimum wage shows that we value hard work over welfare and will save taxpayers money.

Personal stories are a powerful way to contextualize this issue and relate it to values of hard work and family.

A populist theme juxtaposing the minimum wage with CEO salaries is also strong with base voters.


Oakland, California


Washington, D.C.

The National Political Climate

Presentation by Celinda Lake

to the CWA Legislative-Political Conference 2006

Documents

The National Political Climate