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The National Political Environment and 2020
Scott W. Reed Senior Political Strategist [email protected]
Ashlee Rich Stephenson National Political Director
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �2
COOK POLITICAL: U.S. SENATE RATINGS
There are 35 U.S. Senate seats up in 2020; 23 Republicans and 12 Democrats
8 Solid D, 3 Likely D, 4 Toss Up, 8 Likely R, 12 Solid R
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �3
U.S. SENATE PRO-BUSINESS PRIORITY RACES
6 Priority Pro-Business Incumbents: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina
Likely Rep Toss Up
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �4
SECOND TIER PRIORITIES
Alabama (Toss Up), Kansas (Likely R), Tennessee (Likely R), Georgia x2 (Likely R)
Likely Rep Toss Up
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �5
“WATCH RACES” BASED ON ENVIRONMENT
Montana (Solid Rep), Michigan (Lean Dem), Kentucky (Lean Rep), Texas (Solid Rep)
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �6
U.S. HOUSE RACES IN 2020
AZ-01 GA-06 NJ-11
IA-02 IA-01 NM-02
IL-17 IA-03 NY-11
MN-07 IL-14 NY-19
NH-01 ME-02 NY-22
NJ-05 MI-08 OK-05
NV-03 MI-11 PA-17
NY-18 MN-02 SC-01
PA-08 NJ-02 UT-04
WI-03 NJ-03 VA-02
VA-07
There are 31 Democrats representing “Trump 2016” Districts
Source: The Hill Analysis Election
Results
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �7
TEXAS HOUSE RETIREMENTS
Five GOP retirements in the state of Texas: “Texodus”
Mike Conaway TX-11 Safe R+32 Midland,
Odessa 87%
Bill Flores TX-17 Safe R+12Waco,
College Station
89%
Pete Olson TX-22 Toss Up R+10 Sugar Land, Richmond 89%
Will Hurd TX-23 Lean Dem R+1 San Antonio, El Paso 93%
Kenny Marchant TX-24 Toss Up R+9 Dallas,
Fort Worth 84%
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �8
NC-09: SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS
Dan Bishop (R-NC-09) wins special election in South Central North Carolina
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �9
THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION CONTEST
Source: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/1/18246059/2020-presidential-election-democratic-candidates-running-for-president
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �10
THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION CONTEST
February 3: IA Caucus
February 11: NH Primary
February 22: NV Caucus
February 29: SC Primary
March 3: Super Tuesday (15 States)
March 17: AZ, FL, IL, OH
April 28: NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI
July 13-16: Democratic National Convention
The nomination contest kicks off on February 3, 2020 in Iowa
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL �11
THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION CONTEST
Public polls… what do they mean?
The National Political Environment and 2020
Scott W. Reed Senior Political Strategist [email protected]
Ashlee Rich Stephenson National Political Director
