The Netherlands in a Sustainable World

Poverty, Climate and Biodiversity

Second Sustainabilty Outlook

Aldert Hanemaaijer, projectleader

2

Approach First

Sustanability Outlook

4 ‘policy rich’ scenario’s

(based on different

worldviews and values)

• Anything is possible

• Goals were implicit

• Risk of cherry picking

• Difficult to give robust options

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Approach Second Sustanability Outlook

• 1 Baseline Scenario (OECD)– No additional policy, like EU Climate Policy

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Approach Second Sustanability Outlook

• 1 Baseline Scenario (OECD)– No additional policy, like EU Climate Policy

• Existing goals – MDG’s: half poverty– EU 2 degrees climate– CBD: signifcantly reduce biodiversity loss

• Policy challenge = goal - trend

• Options to realise goals

• Worldviews to make options robust

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Assumptions Baseline Scenario

• Looking 35 years back and forward from 2005

• Almost 9 billion people in 2040

• World GDP tripples; GDP doubles per head

• Energy use + 75%; GHG almost + 50%

• Agricultural productivity + 40%

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The world is not enough

For simultaneously:

Foodsupply

Biofuels

Biodiversity conservation

Climate Change

Biodiversity loss

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Reasons for not realising the goals

• For biodiversity and climate change T < P * C

Population x Consumption Technology

• One-sided emphasis in the short term

• Partial solutions

• Inadequate international cooperation

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Mankind develops …

Africa

lags

behind

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… at the expense of biodiversity

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Human development has an ecological price

Further loss of biodiversity is inevitable

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MDG’s will not be reached in time

Africa and

South Asia

lag behind

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Stimulating devlopment in poorest countries

• Investing in broad infrastructure

Education, health care, roads, energy, water, sanitation, etc.

• Abolish agricultural subsidies and phased opening of

markets in the poorest developing countries

• Combining ODA funds to prevent fragmentation

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Climate requires strong international coalition

By broadening the EU trading system

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Biofuels put tropical nature and food supply under additional pressure

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There’s more then biofuels

• Lowering current EU ambitions for 2020

• Biofuels versus energy from biomass

• Other options for transport: more efficient engines and second generation cars

• How to get second generation biofuels in a liberalising global market, not competing with food production (in less productive areas)?

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If the world would consume as the Dutch in 2040, all natural forests and grasslands will be gone

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Reduce biodiversity loss

• Raise agricultural production in developing countries

• Influence people’s diet (meat)

• Sustainable production changes via companies

• Targeted protection of and paying for (tropical) nature

IPCC for biodiversity Biodiversity for development

ecosystem goods and services

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No sustainable development without Europe

• Right scale to work on international coalition

• Emission trading and level playing field for companies

What is needed for SD on EU level? What is needed for SD on EU level?

• Broaden EU competences

– To integrate policies for development, climate, biodiversity,

trade, energy and agriculture

• Adjustment of decision making procedures

– Unanimity at discussion

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Dutch citizens: “Government should take care”

• Solve the social dilemma– Support and willingness to pay for climate in NL and EU

• Products should be ‘OK’– Sustainable consumption also asks for active role government

• Pricing and EU regulation needed– Pricing in rich countries has less effect

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Realising goals and human ambitions

• Fysical limits to realising all the global goals

• Big ambitions in a small world: what is possible?

• Will technolgy be enough? Also change in lifestyle!

– ‘Fat ego’ debate in NL on the question if everybody should be able to buy a SUV and a jaccuzi in the garden

– Influencing behavior with pricing, sustainable chains or taking away ‘bad’ choices by regulation

Coherent international policy

Willingness to pay

Key role for Europe

Leading government

Technology + lifestyle

Summary

What is needed?

Nederland en een duurzame wereld