MARKETVIEW

Influx of foreign capital

boosts retail investment

The Netherlands Retail MarketView H2 2014

STALLED OCCUPIER DEMAND

FOCUS ON CITY CENTRES

H2 2014 CBRE Research © CBRE B.V.| 1

HEADLINES

• Occupier market not bottomed out yet • Investment volume boosted by foreign capital

• Discounters and luxury retailers expanding • Shopping centres most popular investment category

-15bp y-on-y

Chart 1: Consumer confidence

Source: Statistics Netherlands

Source: Oxford Economics

Chart 2: GDP growth

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Jan

2014

Feb

2014

Mar

201

4

Apr 2

014

May

201

4

Jun

2014

Jul 2

014

Aug

2014

Sep

2014

Ocr 2

014

Nov 2

014

Dec 2

014

Jan

2014

-22% y-o-y +85% y-on-y

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

E

2015

E

2016

E

2017

E

2018

E

+3.8% y-o-y

MARKETVIEW NETHERLANDS RETAIL

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

x 100

0 sq

m

Source: CBRE, VTIS

Source: CBRE

DISCOUNT AND LUXURY GROWTH

Chart 3: Take-up in the Netherlands

Chart 4: Prime rents G4 cities

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

EUR

/ sq

m /

yr

Amsterdam Rotterdam

Utrecht The Hague

Source: CBRE

Chart 5: Investment volume & average transaction size

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

EUR

Billi

on EU

R

Investment volume (RHS) Average deal volume (LHS)

H2 2014 CBRE Research © CBRE B.V.| 2

MARKETVIEW

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Domestic Cross border

NETHERLANDS RETAIL

Chart 7: Investments by origin

Chart 6: Investments divided by asset type in € billions

Source: CBRE

Source: CBRE

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Billi

on EU

R

Shopping centre High-street Other

Retail warehousing Supermarket Factory outlet centre

STRONG INVESTMENT GROWTH

Chart 8: Prime net yields

Source: CBRE

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

High-streetShopping centreRetail warehousing

H2 2014 CBRE Research © CBRE B.V.| 3

MARKETVIEW NETHERLANDS RETAIL

Table 1: Largest Investment transactions 2014

Source: CBRE

Location Building/project Type Purchaser Price in € m

Size (sq m)

Nationwide CBRE Global Investors portfolio Shopping centres Multi/Blackstone N/A 107,500 sq m

Nation wide Corio portfolio Shopping centres Mount Kellett/Sectie 5 176.0 120,800 sq m

Hoofddorp Vier Meren + V&D Shopping centre Wereldhave 138.9 30,100 sq m

Amsterdam Kalvertoren Shopping centre Kroonenberg Groep 117.6 11,500 sq m

Lelystad Batavia Stad Fashion outlet centre Meyer Bergman 115.0 26,300 sq m

Capelle aan den IJssel De Koperwiek Shopping centre Wereldhave 60.1 16,000 sq m

Nation wide Pinnacle portfolio Retail warehouses Europa Capital Partners 49.2 5 units

Leidschendam V&D Leidsenhage Shopping centre Unibail-Rodamco 40.6 11,450 sq m

Nationwide High-street portfolio High-Street Vastned 39.0 7 units

Haarlem Brinkman passage Shopping centre FGH Bank 29.0 10,312 sq m

H2 2014 CBRE Research © CBRE B.V.| 4

MARKETVIEW

Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

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