The New Nuclear Danger and What You Can Do About

It

Thomas B. Newman, MD, MPH

Professor of Epidemiology & Biostatistics and Pediatrics,

UCSFNukesForDPH25Nov05NukesForDPH25Nov05

Why I am doing this

I am scared “Leave it to the experts, they know

what they are doing” is not an intellectually, morally or historically defensible h have skills and a duty to anticipate and address threats to public health

I want your help If not now, when?

Take Home Messages

2 quotes A few images 2 big numbers Some discomfort 2 article VI’s 2 approaches

Outline/Menu Background

History (Quote #1) Physics, what nukes do (Images) Stockpiles of weapons and materials (2 big

numbers) The New Danger (Discomfort)

Nuclear Terrorism Loose Fissile Material Nuclear Proliferation

Two Approaches Bush administration PSR “SMART SECURITY” (2 Article VI’s)

History of Physicians and Nuclear Weapons

Hiroshima, Nagasaki 1945 1950s: AMA supports civil defense,

fallout shelters 1962: PSR formed, NEJM articles, LTBT 1980s: “Victory is Possible,” IPPNW

formed, PSR “bombing runs” 1985: IPPNW wins Nobel Peace Prize;

“Nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” – R. Reagan and M. Gorbachev

1990’s – now: increasing fear of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism

Forrow L, Sidel V. Medicine and Nuclear War: From Hiroshima to Mutual Forrow L, Sidel V. Medicine and Nuclear War: From Hiroshima to Mutual Assured Destruction to Abolition 2000. JAMA 1998;280:456-61Assured Destruction to Abolition 2000. JAMA 1998;280:456-61

Quote #1

“Since the advent of the Nuclear Age, everything has changed save our modes of thinking and we thus drift towards unparalleled catastrophe.”

--Albert Einstein

Energy in a sugar cube

Old way of thinking chemical energy: 5 g x 3.4 kcal/g = 17 kcal Energy for 10 minutes @

2400 kcal/d New way of thinking: E=

mc2

5 g x (3 x 1010 cm/sec)2 = 45 x 1020 ergs = 2.15 x 1010 kcal

Energy for 123,000 years @ 2400 kcal/d

21 kilotons

Explosive yield

1 kiloton = explosive power of 1000 TONS (2 million pounds) of TNT Hiroshima bomb 13

kilotons Oklahoma City bomb:

2.2 tons (.002 kilotons) 1 megaton = 1000

kilotons Largest nuclear

weapons: 20 megatons

Physics, definitions, terminology

Fission: splitting big atoms like Uranium and Plutonium Releases huge amount of energy Chain reaction that requires “critical mass” Type of bomb used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Fusion: joining small atoms (heavy hydrogen) to make helium Releases even more energy Requires lots of energy (fission bomb) to get process

started

10 kiloton bomb: Blast effects

500 MPH wind (20 PSI) @ .4 miles--everything leveled

160 MPH wind (5 PSI) @ 1 mile -- skeletons of some buildings, 50% fatalities

1 PSI @ 2.4 miles -- broken windows and injuries to 5-10%

http://www.nationalterroralert.com/readyguide/nuclear.htm, http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/effectstable1.html

10 kiloton bomb effects: Thermal effects

Creates a giant firestorm with hurricane-force winds and average air temperatures above boiling.

A firestorm would cremate or suffocate people in heavily protected shelters.

Wood, cardboard ignite .8 miles away

Third degree burns covering 50% of body 1.2 miles away

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/index.html

Radiation Effects

Acute Effects: Bone marrow most affected (bleeding, infections, etc.), then GI tract (nausea, vomiting, diarrhea)

50% fatality @ 0.8 miles

Effects of radiation

“Fall out” -- radioactive dust from the blast crater goes into the mushroom cloud and lands downwind

Chronic Effects: Cancer, scarring of lungs, thyroid diseases, cataracts, birth defects, genetic damage

Existing weapons

Dot Chart (2001)

*http://www.tridentploughshares.org/hb3/part10.php

1 dot = 3 megatons = Total explosive power from WW II, including Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Total: 11,425 megatons = almost 2 tons of TNT per person on the planet

8 dots = 1 trident submarine

BIG BIG NUMBER 1NUMBER 1

The New Danger Nuclear terrorism Loose fissile material Nuclear proliferation

Americans, think

“We have the right to kill 4 million Americans”

“The Americans have still not tasted from our hands what we have tasted from theirs. The [number] killed in the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were no more than fair exchange for the ones killed in the Al-'Amiriya shelter in Iraq, and are but a tiny part of the exchange for those killed in Palestine, Somalia, Sudan, the Philippines, Bosnia, Kashmir, Chechnya, and Afghanistan... We have the right to kill 4 million Americans - 2 million of them children... --Suleiman Abu Gheith, Al-Qa’ida Spokesman

Aum Shinrikyo

“Supreme Truth” – religious cult founded by Shoko Asahara

Peak 9000 members, 1400 monks Japan alone

Tons of chemicals stockpiled for weapons

1995 Sarin attack on a Tokyo subway killed 12 and sent 5000 to hospitals

Sought to obtain uranium for nuclear weapons

Apocalyptic Visions

Massive destruction in the service of various visions of purification and renewal*

Common to most religions, extreme ideological movements like Communism and Fascism, Timothy McVeigh, David Koresh, Aum Shinrikyo

*Robert Jay Lifton. The Superpower Syndrome: America’s Apocalyptic Confrontation with the World. NY: Thunder’s Mouth Press, 2003

Fissile Material: key ingredient for nuclear bombs

Highly enriched uranium or plutonium

Relatively simple to make it come together as a critical mass

HEU- Highly Enriched Uranium

Highly enriched means enriched in U-235, the isotope capable of fission

At least 20% U-235 needed to sustain a nuclear reaction

Critical mass = 35 pounds World stockpile (end of 2003)

~1900 metric tons*

*Albright D, Kramer K. Fissile Material: Stockpiles still growing. Bull Atomic Sci 2004;Nov/Dec:14-15

Plutonium

Made in nuclear reactors when U-238 absorbs a neutron

Obtained by reprocessing spent fuel rods with nitric acid

Critical mass = 9 -33 pounds (depends on reflector)

World stockpile (end of 2003) ~1855 Metric Tons*

*Albright D, Kramer K. Fissile Material: Stockpiles still growing. Bull Atomic Sci 2004;Nov/Dec:14-15

Total Fissile material: 3750 Metric Tons

Enough for more than 300,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs

If it is 99.99% secure, that leaves enough for 30 Hiroshima-sized bombs

BIG BIG NUMBER #2NUMBER #2

Challenges of securing fissile material*

Amount of Plutonium estimated based on ratio of Uranium to Plutonium in a sample

MUF = Material Unaccounted For “The cumulative MUF... was in excess of

400 kg plutonium. Such a value is a cause for concern...”**

*IPPNW, 1996: Crude nuclear weapons proliferation and the terrorist threat. Avail *IPPNW, 1996: Crude nuclear weapons proliferation and the terrorist threat. Avail at http://www.ippnw.org/IPPNWBooks.html#Crude; at http://www.ippnw.org/IPPNWBooks.html#Crude; ****http://www.dnfsb.gov/pub_docs/hanford/sir_19931213_hd.txt

Where is it?

Most HEU is in military stocks but... 20 tons HEU (enough for 400

bombs) in 130 research reactors in 40 countries “some of it secured by nothing more than an underpaid guard sitting inside a chain link fence.”*

Most plutonium is in civilian stocks

**Nunn, S. Quoted in Allison G. Nuclear Terrorism, p.67 Nunn, S. Quoted in Allison G. Nuclear Terrorism, p.67

Safeguarding Fissile Materials

1992 Russia: employee steals 50 g HEU at a time; accumulates 1.5 kg. Caught by chance.

1996 Kazakhstan: 205 kg of HEU “turns up” in 1996, 1 year after they thought all had been given to Russia

2001 Istanbul: smugglers caught trying to sell 1 kg HEU for $750,000

Nuclear Proliferation

Vertical: same countries, more or more threatening weapons

Horizontal: more countries Original 5 Nuclear Weapons states: USA, USSR

(Russia), England, France, China Brazil and South Africa abandoned their

programs Israel India, Pakistan, 1998 North Korea ?Iran

Current administration approach

U.S. dominant; unilateral Emphasis on military solutions Build new nuclear weapons and

threaten to use them

Quotes

“Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.” --GWB, 9/20/01 (www.whitehouse.gov/news/ www.whitehouse.gov/news/

releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html)releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html) "America will never seek a

permission slip to defend the security of our people.” --GWB, State State of the Union, 1/20/04of the Union, 1/20/04

“I don’t do carrots.” –John Bolton

The Embrace of Nuclear WeaponsThe Embrace of Nuclear Weapons

New Nuclear Policies

US Nuclear Posture Review -1

2002 report on the goals and structure of US nuclear forces.

Goal to reduce from 6000 to ~2000 “operationally deployed” nuclear weapons by 2012 “Smallest stockpile consistent

with national security” Excess weapons not destroyed

Current Situation

J.D. Crouch, Assistant Secretary of Defense

The U.S. is “currently projecting to keep the

nuclear forces that we have to 2020 and

beyond.”

“Special Briefing on the Nuclear Posture Review,” US Department of Defense, January 9, 2002.

Current Situation

US Nuclear Posture Review -2

Offensive strike systems, may include new, lower yield, “usable” weapons

Nuclear weapons may be used after biological or chemical attacks

Non-nuclear states targeted

Current Situation

“In setting requirements for nuclear strike capabilities…North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria and

Libya are among the countries that could be involved in immediate, potential or unexpected

contingencies.”

Nuclear Posture Review

On the need for more “usable” nuclear weapons

“The only thing we have is very large, very dirty, big nuclear weapons. It seems to me studying it [the RNEP] makes all the sense in the world.”

-Donald Rumsfeld

Pincus, W: Pentagon Revises Nuclear Strike Plan. Strategy Includes Pincus, W: Pentagon Revises Nuclear Strike Plan. Strategy Includes Preemptive Use Against Banned Weapons. Washington Post, Preemptive Use Against Banned Weapons. Washington Post, 9/11/05 A019/11/05 A01

“We have more nuclear weapons now than we know what to do with…I’m concerned about our image in the world when we’re telling others not to build these things, and then we push these new weapons.”

Representative David Hobson (R-Ohio)

“If the United States, which commands the most powerful conventional and nuclear arsenal on Earth, continues to develop new nuclear weapons, other nations can hardly be faulted for deciding that they need nuclear weapons also, if only to deter the United States.”

-Salt Lake City Tribune-June 6, 2003

Salt Lake City Tribune

FY ’06 Budget Request

Missile defense: $8.8 billion Shorten time for nuclear testing:

$25 million Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator:

$8.5 million Modern Pit Facility to make 450

plutonium pits/year (nuclear weapon triggers): $7.7 million

Smart Security Brochure

The PSR Platform for SMART The PSR Platform for SMART SecuritySecurity

• Strengthen international institutions and support the rule of law

• Renounce the development of new nuclear weapons and strengthen international disarmament treaties

• Change budget priorities to reflect real security needs

Endorsed by the National Council of Churches Endorsed by the National Council of Churches (100,000 congregations with 45 million (100,000 congregations with 45 million

members)members)

The Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty

Both nuclear and non-nuclear states agree to cooperate to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons

Non-nuclear states agree to forgo their development

In return: Nuclear states agree to make good-faith

efforts toward complete nuclear disarmament

Nuclear power to be available to all Signed by U.S. 1968, ratified 1969

http://disarmament.un.org:8080/TreatyStatus.nsf

(ARTICLE VI)

NPT Article VI

“Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.”

What does if mean if a treaty is ratified?

“This Constitution... and all treaties made, or which shall be made, under the authority of the United States, shall be the supreme law of the land; and the judges in every state shall be bound thereby...

“The Senators and Representatives...and the members of the several state legislatures, and all executive and judicial officers, both of the United States and of the several states, shall be bound by oath or affirmation, to support this Constitution...”

--Article VI, U.S. Constitution

RE: Article VI of the NPT and the failed NPT conference:

"If governments simply ignore or discard commitments whenever they prove inconvenient, we will never be able to build an edifice of international cooperation."

-- Paul Meyer, Canadian Representative to the 2005 NPT conference.

Quoted in: Sanger, D. Month of Talks Fails to Bolster Nuclear Quoted in: Sanger, D. Month of Talks Fails to Bolster Nuclear Treaty. New York Times, May 28, 2005Treaty. New York Times, May 28, 2005

Nuclear Abolition Endorsed by:

American Public Health Association

American Medical Association American College of Physicians International Physicians for the

Prevention of Nuclear War/Physicians for Social Responsibility

Global political, military and religious leaders

Alternative Budget Priorities

International development Global public health Alternative energy sources

TN’s View, Short version

Nuclear weapons undermine, rather than enhance our security

Even if this were not true, threatening their use is illegal and immoral. They are instruments of genocide

We have banned slavery, chemical and biological weapons

We can and should ban nuclear weapons, too

It’s the law

Quote #2: Senator Everett M. Dirksen

“When I feel the heat, I see the light.”

What You Can DoWhat You Can Do

• Take some brochures and newsletters• Sign up for SF Bay Area PSR Security

Committee• Join PSR (www.psr.org)• Sign up for PSR’s Legislative Alert

email list • Join speakers’ bureau, find audiences• Increase awareness and concern

among public health professionals

Quiz/Review

Einstein quote # of tons of TNT equivalent per

person in existing nuclear weapons

# of Hiroshima-size bombs that can be made from existing fissile material

Article VI of the NPT Article VI of the US Constitution Dirksen quote

Supplementary slides

Stop the machine

“There comes a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart, that you can’t take part; and you’ve got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus, and you’ve got to make it stop.”

--Mario Savio, 1964

““If we are serious If we are serious about peace, then about peace, then we must workwe must work for it as ardently, for it as ardently, seriously, carefully seriously, carefully and bravely as we and bravely as we now prepare for now prepare for war.”war.”

~~Wendell BerryWendell Berry

Sadako Sasaki and the Children’s Peace Monument Story

Leafletting in front of the venue for the Conference of the National Junior High Schools Principals' Association, November 12, 1955 / Hiroshima City Auditorium

Sadako Sasaki with her relay team

Hiroshima Peace Park

NUNN-LUGAR COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM

Goals Dismantle NBC weapons Secure employment for scientists

formerly involved in their production Funding $408 million in FY 2005;

$416 proposed for FY 2006 Problems with oversight and

accounting

ABM Treaty

Article XV 1. This Treaty shall be of unlimited duration.2. Each Party shall, in exercising its national

sovereignty, have the right to withdraw from this Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this Treaty have jeopardized its supreme interests. It shall give notice of its decision to the other Party six months prior to withdrawal from the Treaty. Such notice shall include a statement of the extraordinary events the notifying Party regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests.

Fission

Space Weapons

Air Force Seeks Bush's Approval for Space Weapons Programs

“With little public debate, the Pentagon has already spent billions of dollars developing space weapons and preparing plans to deploy them.”

NY Times 5/18/05NY Times 5/18/05

1967 Outer Space Treaty

Article IThe exploration and use of outer space, including

the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind.

Article IIIStates Parties to the Treaty shall carry on

activities in the exploration and use of outer space...in the interest of maintaining international peace and security and promoting international co-operation and understanding.

http://www.state.gov/t/ac/trt/5181.htm

Fissile Material Dot Chart1 dot = 1 Hiroshima-sized bomb

Each Each square square has 47 has 47

of theseof these

General Treaty for the Renunciation of War (Kellogg-Briand Pact)

Article II: The High Contracting Parties agree that the settlement or solution of all disputes or conflicts of whatever nature or of whatever origin they may be, which may arise among them, shall never be sought except by pacific means.

Signed by Coolidge, Ratified by senate

Basis for conviction of Nazi war criminals at Nuremberg

The dangerous rise of American exceptionalism

Lancet Lancet Volume 361, Number 9369     10 May 2003Volume 361, Number 9369     10 May 2003

Withdrew from ABM treaty Failed to Sign or Approve:

Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel Land Mines

Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Enforcement of Biological Weapons Treaty International Criminal Court Convention on the Rights of the Child

On the legality of nuclear “pre-emption”

Unanimously: A threat or use of force by means of nuclear weapons that is contrary to Article 2, paragraph 4, of the United Nations Charter and that fails to meet all the requirements of Article 51, is unlawful

Article 2, paragraph 4: All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

Article 51, UN Charter: Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.

-Lawrence Korb, former Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Reagan

administration

Current policies have “radically altered national security doctrines that had successfully safeguarded American interests for more than 50 years. The changes, as the current crisis in Iraq demonstrates, have actually undermined U.S. security.”