The NewThe NewOcean ManagementOcean Management

ParadigmParadigmLessons from the Scotian Lessons from the Scotian

Shelf Shelf

Bob O’BoyleBob O’Boyle

Bedford Institute of Bedford Institute of OceanographyOceanography

CanadaCanada

2020thth Century Ocean Century Ocean Management ParadigmManagement Paradigm

•Sector by sector approachSector by sector approach– Objectives related to a sector’s Objectives related to a sector’s

impact & requirementsimpact & requirements– Management by sector with Management by sector with

little consideration of cross – little consideration of cross – sector impactssector impacts

Sector = Fisheries, oil & gas, Sector = Fisheries, oil & gas, recreation, etcrecreation, etc

Consensus for New Consensus for New ApproachApproach

•Ecosystems are 'complex systems' that require Ecosystems are 'complex systems' that require new way of doing businessnew way of doing business– Ecosystem responses cannot be predicted by Ecosystem responses cannot be predicted by

understanding individual mechanics of component understanding individual mechanics of component partsparts

•Need to manage for objectives related to multiple Need to manage for objectives related to multiple ecosystem servicesecosystem services– Sustainable fisheries, clean water, recreation, etcSustainable fisheries, clean water, recreation, etc

We are in midst ofWe are in midst ofparadigm shift inparadigm shift in

ocean managementocean management

Early in process butEarly in process butoutline is emergingoutline is emerging

New Ocean Management New Ocean Management ParadigmParadigm•Ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or Ecosystem Ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or Ecosystem

Based ManagementBased Management– Ecologically - based principlesEcologically - based principles– Cumulative & long-term impacts Cumulative & long-term impacts – Cross – sector managementCross – sector management

•Management strategy evaluation (MSE)Management strategy evaluation (MSE)– Comparative performance ofof candidate management strategies candidate management strategies – Consideration of uncertainty in each element of management Consideration of uncertainty in each element of management

systemsystem

Management Strategy Management Strategy EvaluationEvaluation

Ecosystem Monitoring Assessment

ControlRules

DecisionMaking

Implementation

From McAllister et. al. 1999

Control Control ModuleModule

Operational ModuleOperational Module

Management StrategyManagement StrategyAssessment, control Assessment, control

rules & rules & implementationimplementation

EcosystemEcosystemObjectivesObjectives

How to identify How to identify in face of in face of conflicting conflicting prioritiespriorities

How to achieve How to achieve with state of with state of

current current knowledgeknowledge

EAMEAM

MSEMSE

Objectives for delivery of Objectives for delivery of ecosystem services essential to ecosystem services essential to new paradigmnew paradigm

Types of Ecosystem Types of Ecosystem ObjectivesObjectives• Conceptual (policy level)Conceptual (policy level)

– Understandable to broad audienceUnderstandable to broad audience– E.g. Restore Coral Community Biodiversity to E.g. Restore Coral Community Biodiversity to

pre-1980 levelspre-1980 levels

• Operational (regulatory level)Operational (regulatory level)– Links conceptual objective & management actionLinks conceptual objective & management action– E.g. Limit E.g. Limit Area (sq Km) disturbedArea (sq Km) disturbed of Coral of Coral

Community to Community to 5000 sq km5000 sq km

IndicatorIndicator Reference PointReference Point

Ecosystem Objectives Ecosystem Objectives HierarchyHierarchy

OverarchingOverarchingConceptual ObjectivesConceptual Objectives

RegionalRegionalConceptual ObjectivesConceptual Objectives

RegionalRegionalOperational ObjectivesOperational Objectives

SectorSectorOperational ObjectivesOperational Objectives

Link to Treaties, Acts,Link to Treaties, Acts,Legislation & PolicyLegislation & Policy

Link to Overarching COsLink to Overarching COsRegional PrioritiesRegional Priorities

Monitor Ecosystem StatesMonitor Ecosystem StatesControl Cumulative ImpactsControl Cumulative Impacts

Control Sector ImpactsControl Sector Impacts

E.g. Gulf of MaineE.g. Gulf of Maine

E.g. FisheryE.g. Fishery

Scotian Shelf Overarching Scotian Shelf Overarching ObjectivesObjectives• Conserve biodiversityConserve biodiversity

– Conserve community diversityConserve community diversity– Recover species at risk of extinctionRecover species at risk of extinction– Conserve subpopulation & genetic structureConserve subpopulation & genetic structure

• Maintain productivityMaintain productivity– Maintain linkages along food chain (e.g. predators & prey)Maintain linkages along food chain (e.g. predators & prey)– conserve ecosystem components at each level of food chainconserve ecosystem components at each level of food chain

• Conserve habitatConserve habitat– Conserve physical & chemical propertiesConserve physical & chemical properties

Lessons learnedLessons learnedOverarching ObjectivesOverarching Objectives• Hierarchical structure to objectives usefulHierarchical structure to objectives useful

– Transparent translation of general intent of Transparent translation of general intent of management to sector management actionsmanagement to sector management actions

– Coordinates management of cumulative impacts Coordinates management of cumulative impacts as long as same objectives used throughout as long as same objectives used throughout hierarchyhierarchy

• Don’t fret about objectives structure itselfDon’t fret about objectives structure itself– Different ways to package same concepts as long Different ways to package same concepts as long

as ecosystem structure & function addressedas ecosystem structure & function addressed

Issue for conferenceIssue for conference

What are overarching What are overarching objectivesobjectives

for Gulf of Maine?for Gulf of Maine?

Regional ObjectivesRegional ObjectivesEcosystem CharacterizationEcosystem Characterization

• Ecosystem descriptionEcosystem description– Key components Key components – Key linkagesKey linkages

Scotian Shelf Scotian Shelf changes changes duringduring

1980s & 1980s & 1990s 1990s

modeledmodeled

Useful to Useful to synthesize in synthesize in

modelmodel

Regional ObjectivesRegional ObjectivesThreats AnalysisThreats Analysis

Issue for conferenceIssue for conference

What are sectors & their impacts inWhat are sectors & their impacts inGulf of Maine?Gulf of Maine?

• Initial set of objectives developed through bottom – up Initial set of objectives developed through bottom – up stakeholder engagement processstakeholder engagement process

•DFO Science undertaking top – down process DFO Science undertaking top – down process independent of independent of stakeholder processstakeholder process– Intent is to adjust initial set based upon highest priorities for Intent is to adjust initial set based upon highest priorities for

conservation (ecological & biological significant areas & species)conservation (ecological & biological significant areas & species)

Regional ObjectivesRegional ObjectivesScotian ShelfScotian Shelf

Issue still to be addressed is how to marry two sets of prioritiesIssue still to be addressed is how to marry two sets of priorities

Lessons LearnedLessons LearnedRegional objectivesRegional objectives

• Develop conceptual model of Develop conceptual model of ecosystemecosystem– Statement of current knowledgeStatement of current knowledge

• Develop scenarios of potential Develop scenarios of potential future statesfuture states– Focus on key components & Focus on key components &

thresholds to watch forthresholds to watch for– Engage stakeholders in direction of Engage stakeholders in direction of

managementmanagement

• Risk analysis to identify ecosystem Risk analysis to identify ecosystem components to protectcomponents to protect– Develop indicators, reference points & Develop indicators, reference points &

management actions for high risk management actions for high risk impactsimpacts

From Link et. Al., 2002

RISKRISKimpact * probability impact * probability

of not achieving of not achieving objectiveobjective

Issues for conferenceIssues for conference

What are priority conservation What are priority conservation issues for Gulf of Maine?issues for Gulf of Maine?

What is role of science & What is role of science & stakeholders in setting stakeholders in setting

conservation priorities for Gulf of conservation priorities for Gulf of Maine?Maine?

Sector ImplementationSector Implementation• Regional objectives being incorporated into 40+ Scotian Shelf fishery management plansRegional objectives being incorporated into 40+ Scotian Shelf fishery management plans

– Identifies what issues are being addressedIdentifies what issues are being addressed– Identifies gaps that need attentionIdentifies gaps that need attention

GF HF SF L/CF Productivity Primary Limit alteration of essential nutrient concentrations affecting primary production Community Limit trophic level catch biomass with respect to trophic demands of higher levels Limit total catch biomass within system production capacity Population Keep fishing mortality moderate Permit sufficient spawning biomass to evade exploitation Promote positive biomass change when biomass is low Manage % size/age/sex of capture Prevent disturbing activity in spawning areas/seasons Manage discarded catch Biodiversity Biotope/seascape Limit % area disturbed of seascape/biotope types Species Limit incidental bycatch or mortality Minimize change in distribution of invasive species Population Distribute population component catch as a % of component biomass Habitat Bottom Limit % area disturbed of habitat types Water Column Limit amounts of contaminants, toxins and waste introduced in habitat Minimize amount of lost of gear Control noise level/frequency with respect to species of risk

Action NeededAction Needed AddressedAddressed

Georges BankGeorges Bank

Lessons LearnedLessons LearnedSector ImplementationSector Implementation

• Incorporate regional objectives into existing sector Incorporate regional objectives into existing sector management planning & activitiesmanagement planning & activities– Identify gaps & addressIdentify gaps & address

• Undertake Management Strategy Evaluation to determine Undertake Management Strategy Evaluation to determine most robust means for each sector to achieve objectives most robust means for each sector to achieve objectives

GovernanceGovernance

Forum for broad-Forum for broad-based based

engagementengagement

Stakeholder Stakeholder advisory groupadvisory group

Decision-makersDecision-makers

FisheriesFisheries

Oil & GasOil & Gas

TransportTransport

NGOsNGOs

PublicPublic

ScienceScience

Issue: How much consensus?Issue: How much consensus?

Lessons LearnedLessons LearnedGovernanceGovernance

• StakeholdersStakeholders– Broad-based to represent diversityBroad-based to represent diversity– Focus to facilitate objective setting & scenario developmentFocus to facilitate objective setting & scenario development

• RegulatorsRegulators– Implementation of new paradigm requires regulators to be on side: cultural shiftImplementation of new paradigm requires regulators to be on side: cultural shift

• Build governance structures on what existsBuild governance structures on what exists– Illustrate how existing activities fit into new paradigm

Lessons Learned Lessons Learned (cont'd)(cont'd)GovernanceGovernance

•ScienceScience–Use objectives to define key science priorities Use objectives to define key science priorities & link funding to management deliverables& link funding to management deliverables

–Design science programs for new paradigm: Design science programs for new paradigm: may involve new institutionsmay involve new institutions

Issue for conferenceIssue for conference

What is an effective What is an effective governance structure for governance structure for

the Gulf of Maine?the Gulf of Maine?

What Science is needed?What Science is needed?• Ecosystems are complex systemsEcosystems are complex systems

– Unpredictable future statesUnpredictable future states– Develop scenarios of potential future statesDevelop scenarios of potential future states

• Ecosystem modeling to identifyEcosystem modeling to identify– key ecosystem components & thresholds that cause changes key ecosystem components & thresholds that cause changes

in statein state– Important system feedbacksImportant system feedbacks– Linkages between scales Linkages between scales – Phase of adaptive cyclePhase of adaptive cycle

Ecosystem Models Ecosystem Models • PLAUSIBLE PLAUSIBLE hypotheses of ecosystem functioning to explore hypotheses of ecosystem functioning to explore

importance ofimportance of– Diversity of communitiesDiversity of communities– Functional groups & redundancies within communitiesFunctional groups & redundancies within communities– Linkages amongst communitiesLinkages amongst communities

Simulate plausible ecosystem states Simulate plausible ecosystem states & how system might change & how system might change

between thesebetween theseAdaptive CycleAdaptive Cycle

Community ACommunity A

Community DCommunity D

Community BCommunity BCommunity DCommunity D

Synthesis of Synthesis of current current

understandingunderstanding

Current knowledge Current knowledge will go only so far will go only so far

Need new theory & Need new theory & understandingunderstanding

BiodiversityBiodiversity•Community structure & dynamicsCommunity structure & dynamics

– How many communities are there, are they How many communities are there, are they stable over time, is their spatial distribution stable over time, is their spatial distribution predictable, how do they react to ocean predictable, how do they react to ocean climate?climate?

•Genetic processesGenetic processes– What is impact of human activities on genetic What is impact of human activities on genetic

selection? E.g. fishing on gadoid growth in selection? E.g. fishing on gadoid growth in Northwest AtlanticNorthwest Atlantic

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

NE Arctic

North Sea

Faroes

Icelandic

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

5Z4X bof4X wss4VW

NW AtlanticNW Atlantic NE AtlanticNE Atlantic

Weight (kg) at Age 7Weight (kg) at Age 7

What are relative roles of environment What are relative roles of environment & genetic selection on haddock growth? & genetic selection on haddock growth?

Observed in other species e.g. codObserved in other species e.g. cod

Productivity & Food ChainProductivity & Food Chain• Are food chains controlled top-down (by predators) Are food chains controlled top-down (by predators)

or bottom-up (by food supply?)or bottom-up (by food supply?)

• Evidence to suggest that overfishing could flip Evidence to suggest that overfishing could flip ecosystem from bottom-up to top-downecosystem from bottom-up to top-down– Need quantitative understanding of relationships Need quantitative understanding of relationships

amongst exploitation, biodiversity & ocean climateamongst exploitation, biodiversity & ocean climate

+

-

+

-

-

+

-

+

Eastern Scotian ShelfEastern Scotian Shelf

• What are consequences for reference points of long-term What are consequences for reference points of long-term ecosystem changes?ecosystem changes?– What should current reference points be? e.g. Eastern Scotian Shelf What should current reference points be? e.g. Eastern Scotian Shelf

codcod

Productivity & Reference PointsProductivity & Reference Points

Rosenberg et. al, 2005

CarryinCarrying g

CapacitCapacityy

Spatial processes (small to Spatial processes (small to large)large)• Habitat - productivity linkageHabitat - productivity linkage

– How are these linked? What is distribution of habitats How are these linked? What is distribution of habitats of differing sensitivities? Why are they different & of differing sensitivities? Why are they different & how do they respond to impact?how do they respond to impact?

• Climate changeClimate change– Promises to be most significant future impact on our Promises to be most significant future impact on our

ecosystemsecosystems– Need to understand linkage between Shelf Need to understand linkage between Shelf

oceanography & broader climatology e.g. Influence of oceanography & broader climatology e.g. Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Oscillation on Gulf of Maine

• Linkage of Scotian Shelf / Linkage of Scotian Shelf / Gulf of Maine with North Gulf of Maine with North Atlantic atmospheric Atlantic atmospheric systemsystem• Different response to Different response to

NAO north & south of NAO north & south of HalifaxHalifax

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

NAO NAO Winter Winter

AnomalyAnomaly

1970 - 2003 bottom 1970 - 2003 bottom CC00 differences differences

(neg - pos anomaly)(neg - pos anomaly)

Periodic? Predictable?Periodic? Predictable?

Issue for conferenceIssue for conference

What are scienceWhat are scienceneeds of new paradigm for needs of new paradigm for

Gulf of Maine?Gulf of Maine?

SummarySummary

• In midst of ocean management In midst of ocean management paradigm shiftparadigm shift

•Will take time & effort to changeWill take time & effort to change– need to stay the courseneed to stay the course

•Challenges but opportunities tooChallenges but opportunities too

Thank You!Thank You!

Newfoundland

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40

35

40

45

50

55

60

Bottom Bottom Community Community Transition Transition

ZonesZones

When NAO When NAO PositivePositive

Tendency for Tendency for Northern Northern

Transition Zone Transition Zone to move Southto move South

& & Southern Southern

Transition Zones Transition Zones to move North to move North

Are these patternsAre these patternsPredictable?Predictable?

How stable are these How stable are these communities?communities?

CommunityCommunityStructureStructure

&&DynamicsDynamics

Identified transitions Identified transitions in bottom in bottom

communities communities consistent with consistent with

circulation & mixing circulation & mixing patternspatterns

Movement in Movement in transition zones in transition zones in response to North response to North Atlantic Oscillation Atlantic Oscillation

(NAO)(NAO)

From Mahon et. al. 1998From Mahon et. al. 1998

Species Richness implicated Species Richness implicated (Frank et. (Frank et. al., 2007)al., 2007)

OverfishingOverfishing• Reduces species Reduces species

richnessrichness

• May cause flip from May cause flip from bottom – up to top – bottom – up to top – down controldown control

Need to develop quantitative understanding of Need to develop quantitative understanding of relationships amongst exploitation & species richness relationships amongst exploitation & species richness

& ocean climate& ocean climate

Spatial ProcessesSpatial ProcessesShelf ScaleShelf Scale

Natural bottom Natural bottom disturbance, productivity disturbance, productivity

& bottom community & bottom community distributiondistribution