THE NEXT FIFTEEN YEARS

Tim Heffernan August 12, 2014

2030 – The Futurist Say…

More Wealth

Virtualis-ation

Connected devices >

people

AgingPeople

Denser Urban Areas

Individu-ality

E-Health

2030 – The Futurist Say…

Analytics – data into wisdom

Cloud Service Boom

Cybersecurity

> Spend on telecoms. < Tranportati

on

Spectrum Sharing

Hotspots Everywhere

When our licenses were created…

CTO of FCC Dr. Henning Schulzrinne, Chief Technology Officer of the FCC (VoIP protocol inventor)

IETF86 7

When?

TDMswitching(core) VoIP

access

fixed 4G

2013

no single transition date!

numbering

E.164

human-visible hidden

“wireless network is 99% wired”

TodayVoice is passe. Fixed

is marginal. Low prices for domestic and international

calls. Data is growing and expected to

grow exponentially.

Dependency on wireless in region

Converged services

More, right spectrum needed

to support wireless services

Falling revenues

IETF86 9

Landline mobile

10

Lines are disappearing, but maintenance costs are constant

$2.72per-line monthly maintenancecost

$17.57

voice revenue/line: $50

dis

voice only(DSL: 20 M)

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

20192020

0102030405060708090

100

ResidentialBusiness

JSI Capital Advisors projection

11

• Easily available on (SIP) trunks – can be legitimate

• Used for vishing, robocalling, swatting, anonymity breaking, …

• Caller ID Act of 2009: Prohibit any person or entity from transmitting misleading or inaccurate caller ID information with the intent to defraud, cause harm, or wrongfully obtain anything of value.

• Also: phantom traffic rules

Caller ID spoofing

2012-2017

+Social

-T

+Economic

-E

-S

Unified License Now To Address Trends

ICT

Macro Trends

Cloud

Virtualization

Fixed TDM VoiceMobilePricing

Social

Storage

Mobile Evolution 2G>3G>4G

Wi-Fi

Tablets

Mobile Backhaul

Security

Data Analytics

M2M Communications

Smartphone

Telepresence/VideoOTT/VoIP

Mobile Data Revenue

+Technical