Inspiring dialogue and understanding

Manchester Evening Seminar

The next five years of criminal

justice for England and Wales

Professor Chris FoxDirector of the Policy Evaluation and Research Unit

Manchester Metropolitan University

(with additional input from Professor Jon Bannister and Poppy Miszczak)

20 July, 2015

OVERVIEW

What I will cover

Policing

Prisons

Probation

England

2015 – 20 (5 year fixed term

parliament)

What I won’t cover

Legal aid

Youth Justice

Scotland

Northern Ireland

Wales

Structure

The last 5 years

Themes from the last 5 years

Key factors influencing policy going forward

The probable: Key themes in policy going forward

The possible: thinking creatively within the parameter’s of the government’s resources and ideology

THE LAST 5 YEARS

The Coalition Government 2010 - 15

KEY POLICE REFORMS

White Paper: Policing in the 21st Century (Home Office 2010)

Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act (2011) Teresa May: “we need to once again reform policing in the country; restoring

once more the connection between the police and the people, putting the public back in the driving seat and enabling the police to meet the new crime and anti-social behaviour challenges” (Home Office 2010: 3)

Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) An “experiment that is failing” and “Difficult to envisage how a single individual

can provide effective democratic governance of police forces covering large areas, diverse communities and millions of people”. (The Independent Police Commission 2013)

Reforms to police pay

ACPO replaced with National Police Chiefs’ Council

Creation of College of Policing

KEY PRISON REFORMS

Move from competing individual prisons to retaining core custodial functions and market testing ancillary and through-the-gate resettlement services

SIB at HMP Peterborough and HMP Doncaster

KEY PROBATION REFORMS

‘Rehabilitation Revolution’ paying independent providers to reduce re-offending (Coalition Agreement)

Transforming Rehabilitation – A Revolution in the Way we Manage Offenders (Ministry of Justice 2013)

Abolition of Trusts

Creation of NPS and CRCs

CRCs involve element of PbR

Offender Rehabilitation Act (2014) expands licence requirements to offenders released from short prison sentences and introduces new post-sentence supervision period

THEMES FROM THE LAST FIVE YEARS

AUSTERITY

Reduction of 20% over CSA 2010-14

Forces identified over £2.5 billion of savings (HMIC 2014)

16,000 less police officers (HMIC 2014)

MoJ reduced budget by 27% over CSA 2010-14

NOMS budget reduced from £4,056 million to £3,436 million

Prison staffing fell by 20%

Probation staffing fell by 14%

Policing Prisons and probation

DEVOLUTION OR CENTRALISATION?

A move to decentralise in local government and health eg Greater Manchester (although ambition not ‘even’ across England)

Picture in CJS less clear

Decentralisation:

PCCs Justice Reinvestment Pilots

Centralisation:

National Crime Agency

Abolition of 35 Probation Trusts and replacement with NPS and 21 CRCs let through national competition

MARKET TESTING

A key element of policy

Variation in approach eg within the prison system:

Putting individual prisons out to competition (‘vertical commissioning’) has been superceded by a model in which whole service categories such as building and estate management have been put out to tender (‘horizontal commissioning’) (Garside and Ford 2015)

Tendency towards centralised, macro-level commissioning eg probation sector split between NPS managing higher risk offenders and 21 regional CRCs managing lower risk offenders

PAYMENT BY RESULTS

Greater Efficiency

Focusing reward on outcomes, & providing minimal prescription on how these should be achieved will drive greater efficiency in tackling social problems.

Greater Innovation

Focus on outcomes and reduced focus on commissioners ‘micro-managing’ delivery processes will encourage greater innovation.

Transfer risk / defer payment

PbR transfers risk away from the branch of government commissioning the service and towards the service provider. Payment is also deferred.

New market entrants

Marketisation can provide opportunities for new market entrants (particularly from the private and not-for-profit sectors) to enter the market for provision.

DOES IT OFFER VALUE FOR MONEY?

“While supporters argue that by its nature PbR offers value for money, PbR contracts are hard to get right, which makes them risky and costly for commissioners. If PbR can deliver the benefits its supporters claim – such as innovative solutions to intractable problems – then the increased cost and risk may be justified, but this requires credible evidence. Without such evidence, commissioners may be using PbR in circumstances to which it is ill-suited, with a consequent negative impact on value for money.” (National Audit Office 2015: 8)

EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY

What Works Network

6 What Works Centres

College of Policing What Works Centre for Crime Reduction

Justice Data Lab

Evidence key to PbR calculations

But, is evidence base sufficient to support PbR (Fox and Albertson 2012)

POLITICAL THEORY (DRAWING ON DIAMOND 2013)

Markets

PbR/SIB

PCCs

CRCs

PbR/SIB

Politicisation Depoliticisation

• Depoliticisation places key institutions & services at ‘arms-length’ from ministers

• Modifies balance of parliamentary accountability & responsibility

• But strategies to achieve depoliticisation can be highly politicised both in terms of approaches (eg marketisation) and rationale (eg building impression of managerial competence)

KEY FACTORS INFLUENCING

POLICY GOING FORWARD

CONSERVATIVE MANIFESTO: CJS COMMITMENTS

Police reform (most commitments)

Causes of crime (from improved security in phones to legal highs)

Role of victims

Women as victims and offenders

Prisons (from estates and legal highs to PbR)

New or newly understood crimes (from cyberbullying to FGM)

No direct mention of probation

MICHAEL GOVE

Cancelled 320 bed secure college

Overturned book ban

Earned release for education

“People who are currently languishing in prison are potential assets to society. They could be productive and contribute. If we look at them only as problems to be contained we miss the opportunity to transform their lives and to save ourselves and our society both money and pain.” (Michael Gove, 12th July 2015)

More radical, less ideological?

The challenge now is to translate this marked new reflective tone set by the Justice Secretary into sensible policy and to create a just, humane and effective penal system. (Juliet Lyon, Huffington Post 17th July 2015)

CONTINUED AUSTERITY

Resource Departmental Expenditure Limits £83.3 billion higher in total over the current Parliament than was assumed in the March 2015

“The squeeze pencilled in for the first year of the next Spending Review period – 2016-17 – has been eased very significantly” (Office for Budget Responsibility)

But, Defence now added to list of protected Departments

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGE

Absolute poverty rising since 2009/10

Relative poverty has dropped (but product of median income, which has also dropped)

Income inequality fell slightly over recent years, but primary reason was fall in real earnings while benefits remained relatively stable (Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2015)

In 2014 the IFS suggested that “There is good reason to think that the falls in income inequality since 2007–08 are currently being reversed”, pointing to recent earnings growth and cuts to benefits and tax credits

CRIME AND OFFENDING

Crime drop continues

New forms of criminal activity such as cyber crime, fraud, terrorism, and the trafficking of people and goods have emerged (Independent Police Commission 2013)

Their scale is difficult to quantify

New awareness of some existing forms of crime such as child sexual exploitation and FGM (Conservative Manifesto)

Prison population becoming more entrenched?

DEVOLUTION

Cities and Local Government Devolution Bill will “provide for the devolution of powers to cities with elected metro mayors, helping to build a Northern Powerhouse”

Metro mayors would be able to undertake the functions of Police and Crime Commissioners

However, most areas of England are unlikely to have mayors, leaving the majority of PCCs in place

THE PROBABLE

Key themes in policy going forward

LANKELLY CHASE FOUNDATION: HARD EDGES

MAPPING SEVERE AND MULTIPLE DISADVANTAGE

COMPLEX NEEDS

More emphasis on early intervention

More emphasis on place-based commissioning

Partnership driven by Payment by Results

Closer links between CJS and local authorities e.g. Troubled Families

Closer links between CJS and health e.g. PIPES

Closer links between CJS and FE sector

PARTNERSHIP INNOVATION

Multi-agency partnerships: “the coming together of various agencies in relation to a given problem, without this significantly affecting or transforming the work they do” (Crawford 1998)

Inter-agency relations; “interpenetrate and thus affect normal internal working relations. They entail some degree of fusion and melding of relations between agencies. They involve collaboration and interdependence” (Crawford 1998)

Police (dealing with austerity and changing culture)

CRCs (still mobilising, commercial concerns)

Lack of quantitative evidence for effectiveness

Aim Challenges

SALMELIN: REFLECTIONS FROM OPEN INNOVATION 2.0 PARADIGM

Maslow 2.0 for organisations

SOCIAL INVESTMENT

Emphasis on innovation in commissioning to draw in wider range of non-state actors and financial innovation

More PbR within the CJS eg Prison Governors (Conservative Manifesto and Gove speech 17th

July)

Social investment strengths people’s current and future capacities and prepares them to confront life’s risks, rather than simply repairing the consequences.(Bouget et al. 2015)

Welfare states must invest in human capital instead of passive cash transfers

childcare, early childhood health/development, child poverty

active labour market policies, support for parental labour market participation and youth unemployment

education and lifelong learning income support

Narrow concept Wider concept

IMPLICATIONS

Evidence from Europe that states that make social investments are more resilient to economic downturns and recover more quickly

Emerging evidence linking social investment and well-being

Part of a more holistic approach to tackling complex social issues

Devolution and place-based commissioning offer potential for some types of social investment (others require change to macro economic policy)

EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY

“I want to make sure that any firm policy proposals for reform I make are rooted in solid evidence, respectful of academic research and only developed after rigorous testing and study.” (Michael Gove 17th July 2015)

“Medicine has leapt forward with evidence based practice, because it’s only by conducting “randomised trials” - fair tests, comparing one treatment against another - that we’ve been able to find out what works best. . . . A change of culture was also required, with more education about evidence for medics, and whole new systems to run trials as a matter of routine, to identify questions that matter to practitioners, to gather evidence on what works best, and then, crucially, to get it read, understood, and put into practice. This revolution could - and should -happen in education.” (Goldacre 2013: 4)

Gove’s approach DFE Analytical Review 2013

IMPLICATIONS

More emphasis on ‘knowledge mobilisation’ both in structures and in professional training (see next slide)

More joined up data systems (finally!)

Greater use of big data

The assembly and interrogation of large data sets to reveal patterns of human behaviour and interaction, is considered to have transformative potential for all areas of public service delivery (HM Government 2013)

PROFESSIONALISM

Recent creation of both the College of Policing and the Probation Institute

Working with complexity, working in partnership, targeting limited resources effectively while managing risk requires all require high-level of professionalisation

IMPLICATIONS

Agencies facing biggest challenges?

Police (culture change) “police must find ways of empowering individuals to contribute to

collective efforts, adapt to different situations and improve the flow of information and decision making throughout the chain of command”. (College of Policing 2015)

CRCs (commercial pressures)

What will we see?

Professionals as commissioners e.g. Prison Governors

Advanced practitioners (lateral progression) (College of Policing 2015)

More professionals moving between sectors

THE POSSIBLE

Thinking creatively within the parameter’s of the government’s resources and ideology

Innovation and social innovation

Personalisation and relationships

SALMELIN: REFLECTIONS FROM OPEN

INNOVATION 2.0 PARADIGM

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SOCIAL INNOVATION AS A DRIVER OF CHANGE

Personalisation in public services is a form of social innovation (Fox et al. 2013b)

What is social innovation:

“new ideas that work in meeting social goals” (Young Foundation, 2007)

“innovations that are social in both their means and their ends” (Murray et al. 2010)

CJS has rich tradition of social innovation:

Probation

Restorative Justice

Justice Reinvestment

PERSONALISATION

Personalisation is designed to increase choice and control for service users:

Links to desistance theory and Good Lives Model

Practical elements:

Co-produced resettlement plans

Elaboration of the ‘Good Life’

Identify offender assets and engage family / community

Offenders take more ownership of factors contributing to offending behaviour and develop self-reliance and personal capacity

RELATIONSHIPS CENTRAL TO POLICY-MAKING

Relationships as a key policy outcome

“Relationships matter. Good quality relationships with partners, families, friends and wider social networks provide meaning to our lives and are central to our identity. But they also hold the keys to our health and wellbeing; to our ability to engage in and progress in education and at work, to our long term life chances and to instilling resilience in individuals. They are also the cornerstone of a thriving economy and society”. (Ketteringham Forward to What’s love got to do with it Relate 2015)

Relational State: Relationships as a focus for policy Market has not been a success

Cannot afford previous levels of public spending

A new relationship is required between public services and individuals; the ‘Relational State’

Greater emphasis on involving more people from more diverse backgrounds in making policy

Seeking local solutions to localised social problems

Look at what the vulnerable can do already, rather than what they cannot: asset-based approach

CRIMINAL

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Justice Reinvestment

Inspiring dialogue and understanding

Questions ?