The NYC Water SupplyOperations Support Tool (OST):

Planned Upgrades of Interim Functionality

James H. Porter, Ph.D.NYCDEP

14 September 2012Watershed Science and Technical Conference

Hotel Thayer, West Point, NY

Delaware River Basin Drought

What is OST?

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Demand

Supply reliability

Turbidity control

Tailwater fisheries

Ecological flows

Enhanced flood mitigation

Climate change impacts

Long-term supply/demand

New infrastructure

Infrastructure repairs

How is OST used?

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OST – Planned Upgrades

NWS inflow forecasts

Demand forecasts

Rondout turbidity model

Snow water network

Data management

Graphical user interface

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Inflow ForecastsWhy needed?

Primary input to water quantity models

CurrentStatistical forecasts Do not include meteorological driversDo not include real-time snowpack

FutureWill include met drivers, snowpackIncreased, longer-term skill

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NWS Inflow ForecastsHEFS: Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service

New system being developed by NWS Probabilistic (ensemble)Nationwide rollout 2015, water supply 2013$1 million funding from DEP to accelerate development

Daily forecasts to 15 daysMeteorological driversSnow pack data

5-day forecasts 15 days - 9 monthsMet drivers and snow pack

5-day forecasts 9 months and beyondBased on climatology

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Demand ForecastsWhy needed?

Primary driver of system operations

CurrentBased on historical patternsDoes not account for near-future conditions

FutureWill estimate demand based on expected conditions

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OASIS Inputs: Demand Pattern

Demand Forecasts

Near-term forecasts to 15 daysBased on weather forecastsRecent demand may be included

Long-term forecasts to 1-2 yearsBased on climatological normals and variability

Development to begin this year

Complete by late 2013 (end of project)9

Rondout Turbidity ModelWhy needed?

Simulate turbidity in Rondout Reservoir

CurrentNone

FutureMechanistic model of turbidity

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Rondout Turbidity Model

Under development by UFISimilar to Catskill modelsPreliminary testing

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Snow Water NetworkWhy needed?

Input to runoff forecasts

CurrentManual measurements Biweekly

FutureAutomated sensorsContinuous dataNear-real-time sharing with NWS

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Snow Water NetworkSolid-state sensorsProvide near-real-time dataData shared with NWS

Estimate basin-wide snow water contentIntegrated into HEFS runoff forecasts

Current: 10 stations Future: 35 stations2-4 year effortWorking with NWS on locations

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Snow Water Network

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Graphical User InterfaceWhy needed?

Essential for usability

CurrentDoes not meet new needs for system usageOutdated format

FutureDesigned in concert with new needsContemporary look and feel

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GUI - Current

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GUI - Future

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GUI - Future

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Data ManagementWhy needed?

OST is data-centricMust ensure input data are accurate

CurrentDe-centralized system relies on originators

FutureIntegrated into OSTAutomated data review and flaggingAutomated filling of missing dataDaily reports and approval by operatorsAudit record

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Data Management

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Data Management

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OST Schedule

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OST Beta 10/31/2012New data management system and GUIRondout model available stand-alone Server-based deployment and central database to support multiple usersNew “dashboard”: improved data visualization and dissemination

OST Final 10/31/2013NWS ensemble forecasts for improved skillRondout model fully integratedRefinements to data, GUI, and dashboard componentsDemand forecasts operational

Questions?

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