The Obama approach to the Middle East. the end of America's moment.pdf

7/27/2019 The Obama approach to the Middle East. the end of America's moment.pdf

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The Obama approach to the Middle East:

the end of Americas moment?

FAWAZ A. GERGES*

International Aairs89: 2 (2013) 299323 2013 The Author(s). International Afairs 2013 The Royal Institute o International Afairs. Published by Blackwell PublishingLt, 9600 Garsingtn Ra, Or ox4 2dq, UK an 350 Main Street, Malen, MA 02148, USA.

With Presient Obama at the start his secn term, it is time t take stck his rst-term reign plicy legacy in the Mile East. Fur years ater all the

rhetrical urishes an prmises that accmpanie his entry int fce, the ghas been lite, an it is nw pssible t see his reign plicy recr clearly.Tw bra uestins will be eplre here in evaluating Obamas rst presi-

ential term. First, t what etent has Obamas reign plicy been transrma-tinal, an t what etent es it represent a resumptin Americas embrace realismthat is, has he challenge the basic establishe pririties n which USMile East plicy is traitinally base: Israel rst, relatins with il-prucingregimes, an the war n terrr? Secn, hw high es the Mile East stan nObamas reign plicy agena, an what es his respnse t the Arab ppularuprisings in early 2011 say abut American inuence an engagement in the regin?

In respning t these uestins, the article lays ut ur main arguments. First,Obama has shwn in his reign plicy twars the Mile East mre cntinuitywith the past than real change. He ully accepts the basic realist premises inrmingAmerican reign plicy; while shiting his apprach signicantly rm Bushsielgy prselytizing abut emcracy an the liberal eplyment rcein wrl plitics, Obama has nt pursue a transrmatinal reign plicy anhas reraine rm challenging the preminant narrative in Washingtn. He hasapte a centristrealist apprach twars the regin, an apprach cnsistentwith the minant US reign plicy rientatin. Thrughut his presiency,

Obama has aime at retaining the status u with a ew minr crrectins. Inact, it appears that Washingtn has change Obama ar mre than he has changeWashingtn.

Secnly, acrss areas ranging rm the search r peace between Palestiniansan Israelis t Aghanistan, Obamas cnuct testies t the structuralinstitu-tinal cntinuity US reign plicy. Mre than in any ther regin in thewrl, presiential plicy in the Mile East is hampere by institutinal, bureau-cratic an mestic plitics. Americas ysunctinal plitical culture, a escriptinwhich cvers the rle special interest grups, particularly Israels riens an

*I wul like t thank several ctral caniates at LSE r their critical eeback n this article, particularlymy research assistant Anrew Bwen, a Ph.D. caniate at LSE, wh rea an synthesize tw versins it.My thanks als g t Rbert Lwe, Manager the LSEs Mile East Centre, r his eitrial help with thearticle.


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300International Afairs 89: 2, 2013Copyright 2013 The Author(s). International Afairs 2013 The Royal Institute o International Afairs.

supprters, as well as Cngress, impses severe cnstraints n his ability t pursuean even-hane apprach twars the IsraeliPalestinian uestin, which remainsan enuring an pre-eminent issue. US pliticians, incluing Obama, are trappein a plitical culture that prmtes cnrmity an grupthink abut Israel an

strngly iscurages issenting vices. Like his preecessrs, Obama has allwethe plitician t prevail ver the statesman, llwing a lng-staning pattern presiential behaviur that eplains why US Mile East plicy persistently ails.

Thir, espite Obamas lty rhetric abut a new start in relatins betweenthe Unite States an Muslim cuntries, the Mile East es nt rank very highn his agena. Putting Americas scal huse in rer an renewing its lng-termecnmic strength were Obamas pririties in his rst term. That meant reucingthe natins cmmitments abra, especially in the Mile East, where they haetene beyn vital natinal interests. Frm the start his presiency, Obamahas been shiting US reign plicy pririties away rm the Mile East t the

Pacic regin an Asia, where he an his aies believe that Americas uture lies.Finally, the US tay ns itsel in a similar psitin t that its western

superpwer preecessr, Great Britain, ater the Secn Wrl War at the begin-ning the en its hegemnic mment in the Mile East. The shrt-liveuniplar system in which the Unite States minate internatinal relatins hascme t an en. A glbal reistributin pwer has curtaile Americas reem maneuvre an epse its relative ecline. The Ira ebacle has unerminent nly Americas mral staning an creibility but als its eterrence strategy.Mre than at any time since the en the Secn Wrl War, the Unite States

aces an insurmuntable challenge in maintaining its prepnerant inuence in theregin in the ace sweeping histrical an scilgical changes ater the large-scale ppular Arab uprisings in 2011 an the evapratin traitinal alliancesthat ha unerpinne Americas psitin since 1973.

Obama inherite an altere reginal envirnment in which lcal actrsreuently challenge the Unite States an eel mre empwere in an incip-ient multiplar wrl. America is neither eare nr truste t act ratinally anwisely t preserve wrl peace. Althugh Obama has labure t rebuil trust lsturing the Bush years, the genie is ut the bttle. Increasing evience shws

that key reginal pwers, riven by awakene public pinin an civil sciety, nlnger shw eerence t the Great Pwers, particularly the Unite States. Thesecuntriesrm Turkey t Iranpursue autnmus an assertive plicies thatreuently clash with US interests. Israel als repeately ignres the wishes itsgreat American ally an spnsr.

The remainer this article maps ut the bra cnturs the Obamaapprach t the Mile East by eamining the Presients wrl-view an sensi-bility, his plicy pririties an his relatinships within the American pliticalsystem. Althugh his apprach twars the Arab uprisings, Turkey an Iran willbe iscusse, the main emphasis will be n the IsraeliPalestinian peace prcessas a means t shw cntinuities an iscntinuities in US reign plicy. Mrethan any ther case, Obamas stance n this issue illustrates bth the early high


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The Obama approach to the Middle East


hpes investe in the rst Arican American presient t reach the White Husean the stranglehl that American mestic plitics eercises n presientialecisin-making.

Obamas world-view and anti-doctrinal doctrineAter the eight tumultuus years the Gerge W. Bush aministratin, whichlet the Unite States n the verge nancial ruin, Obama sught t chart anew curse in American reign plicy. The new Presient set ut, in bth hisrhetric an his actins, t raw a stark cntrast between his reign plicy visin realism, pragmatism an restraint an that his preecessr. A new, mreenlightene America, Obama hpe, wul return t the wrl stage.

When aske t escribe the Obama ctrine, the Presient respne: [Mineis] an American leaership that recgnizes the rise cuntries like China, Inia

an Brazil. Its a U.S. leaership that recgnizes ur limits in terms resurcesan capacity.1 T begin with, Obama seize n the esire evient bth in theUnite States an acrss the wrl t see America mve away rm militantunilateralism an return t the traitinal multilateralism in internatinal aairsthat ha steere the natin thrugh the rst ecae llwing the en the ClWar. The new Obama ctrine, sai the presiential hpeul in 2007, was ntging t be as ctrinaire as the Bush ctrine, because the wrl is cmplicate.2Net, unlike his preecessr, wh reuse t negtiate with evil, Obama pleget engage plitically with Americas es: I will meet nt just with ur riens,

but with ur enemies, because I remember what Kenney sai, that we shulnever negtiate ut ear, but we shul never ear t negtiate.3 Nw mrethan ever, he sai, iplmacy an engagement are critical t rebuiling uralliances, repairing ur relatinships arun the wrl, an actually making usmre sae in the lng term.4 Obama argue that, by relying n hypermilitarisman shunning irect cntacts with aversaries, the Bush aministratin ha necnsierable amage t Americas vital natinal interests an its mral staning inthe wrl. The punishment rgue states like Ira an uestinable aherencet internatinal law reinrce the view that the Unite States believe it st

abve internatinal nrms an practices.5

Thir, Obama aime at mving away rm relying n military rce twarsutilizing an stering st pwer. As set ut in his inaugural aress, PresientObamas apprach t internatinal aairs was istinctly ierent rm that his preecessr. His new way rwar relie nt n abstract mral values, r nbrute military strength, but n real relatinships an share interests with ther

1 ute in Faree Zakaria, The strategist, Time, 30 Jan. 2012.2 Demcratic presiential ebate n NPR, New York Times, 4 Dec. 2007, http://www.nytimes.cm/2007/12/

04/us/plitics/04transcript-ebate.html?pagewante=7, accesse 9 Feb. 2013.3 Part 3 CNN Demcratic presiential ebate, CNN, 21 Jan. 2008, http://www.cnn.cm/2008/

POLITICS/01/21/ebate.transcript3/ine.html, accesse 9 Feb. 2013.4 Part 3 CNN Demcratic presiential ebate, CNN, 21 Jan. 2008.5 CNN Demcratic presiential ebate in Teas, CNN, 21 Feb. 2008, http://www.cnn.cm/2008/

POLITICS/02/21/ebate.transcript/ine.html, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.


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natins: Recall that earlier generatins ace wn ascism an cmmunism ntjust with missiles an tanks, but with stury alliances an enuring cnvictins.They unerst that ur pwer alne cannt prtect us, nr es it entitle us t as we please.6

Finally, Obama eeply unerst the cuntrys hunger t restre balance inmestic an internatinal plitics an shite cus t the hme rnt. Ater thenset Bushs cstly war n terrr, the shck the glbal nancial crisis anthe grwing prblem the massive eeral ebt, America lnge r nrmality,military e-escalatin, an abve all a recusing ert n the basic issues the hme rnt rather than n the behaviur ictatrs in istant lans. Bushsunilateralist, g-it-alne wrl-view an legacy ha tarnishe the cuntrysmral staning in the wrl, an the majrity Americans recgnize that thecst the Bush ctrine was t high t sustain.

As early as 2006, Obama stresse that he was a realist, nt an iealist like his

preecessr.7 Cmmn security interests, partnership, an multilateralism ininternatinal relatins became the principles his pragmatic, realistic reignplicy. While Obama has been reticent abut eclaring a ctrine in his name,his Natinal Security Strategy (NSS) 2010 calle r a rebalancing Ameri-cas glbal cmmitments away rm the wars in Ira an Aghanistan that haistracte the cuntry rm its mre pressing twenty-rst-century challenges inthe AsiaPacic regin.

Obama recgnizes that the wrl eels cynical abut America preachingemcracy. He mestly states: We [Americans] prmte ur values abve all

by living them at hme. Instea ening what American values are, Obamasuggests subtly that American values are nes that all peple share, an that thesecmmn values are what all humanity seeks.8 In cntrast t Bushs NatinalSecurity Strategies 2002 an 2006, Obama evte a signicant sectin hisNSS t strengthening America at hme.

Obama believe that these principles wul allw America t etract itselrm the 9/11 wars, mving its attentin away rm seemingly peripheral natin-builing prjects in the Muslim wrl an twars the challenge a rising Asia.

Obamas rhetorical reset with the Middle East

Thrughut his presiential campaign an his rst si mnths in fce, Obamareiterate his cmmitment t reaching ut t Muslims an altering their negativeperceptins the Unite States. Time an again, the new Presient stresse thatthe Unite States is nt, an will never be, at war with Islam.9 In an early ert

6 Ofce the Press Secretary, The White Huse, Presient Barack Obamas inaugural aress, 21 Jan. 2009,http://www.whitehuse.gv/blg/inaugural-aress/, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

7 Ryan Lizza, The cnseuentialist, New Yorker, 2 May 2011, http://www.newyrker.cm/reprting/2011/05/02/110502a_act_lizza?currentPage=1, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

8

The White Huse, National Security Strategy, May 2010, http://www.whitehuse.gv/sites/eault/les/rss_viewer/natinal_security_strategy.p, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

9 Ofce the Press Secretary, The White Huse, Remarks by Presient Obama t the Turkish parliament, 6April 2009, http://www.whitehuse.gv/the_press_fce/Remarks-By-Presient-Obama-T-The-Turkish-


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t reach ut t Arabs an Muslims immeiately ater his inauguratin, Obamagave his rst interview t the Al Arabiya televisin statin. Then, in June 2009, hemae a wiely reprte speech at Cair University, in which he aresse criticalchallenges an ere a new way rwar r managing relatins between the US

an the Muslim wrl.As Obama embarke n his rst year as presient, he ha t cnten with theamage the Bush aministratin ha inicte n the cuntrys relatinship withMuslims glbally. Successive American presients ha visite the Mile East tspeak but nt t listen, an repeately saw the regin nly in the glbalist terms the Cl War, geplitics, Israel an, mre recently, the war n terrr. Obamarecgnize that this legacy, which ha ebilitate Americas staning in theregin, was nt sustainable an sught t use the pwer the presiential pulpitt cut Americas lsses an begin bringing US trps hme. Instea apting amre cnstructive apprachne that rew istinctins amng the many aces

plitical IslamObamas preecessrs ha taken the easier, reuctinist apprach lumping all Islamists tgether, seeing mainstream an militant alike thrughthe single prism Al-aea. This serve Bin Laens agena by prtraying allrms Islamic unamentalism, ranging rm Hamas t the Muslim Brther-h, as euivalent t jihaism, a vilent, ttalitarian ringe ielgy eicate tranm estructin, glbal subjugatin an the eeat the West.10

Against this backgrun, Obamas June 2009 speech sent a clear, new message:Ive cme here t Cair t seek a new beginning between the Unite States anMuslims arun the wrl, ne base n mutual interest an mutual respect, an

ne base upn the truth that America an Islam are nt eclusive, an nee ntbe in cmpetitin. Instea, they verlap, an share cmmn principlesprinci-ples justice an prgress; tlerance an the ignity all human beings.11 Hetalke abut his persnal knwlege Islam an plege t eucate Americansabut the real Islam as ppse t the minant negative steretypes.12 T urtherhumanize America in the eyes Muslims, Obama spke Islam as a part Americas stry: the 7 millin Muslims living in the Unite States, he argue, haenriche the cuntry. Unlike his preecessr, Obama i nt mentin terrrismr the war n terrr uring his speech. Inee, this was a cnscius ert by the

aministratin tstop reerring t the glbal war n terrr.Given the vlatile an plarize cntet in which he tk fce, Obamas newiscurse engagement, ceistence an recnciliatin between Muslims in theEast an Christians in the West was a majr pint eparture rm the Bushaministratin. The new tne humility an partnership in Obamas Cair speechraise epectatins that he wul change US reign plicy in the Mile East.

Parliament, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.10 Fawaz Gerges, The ar enemy: why jihad went global (Cambrige an New Yrk: Cambrige University Press,

2005).11 Ofce the Press Secretary, The White Huse, Remarks by the Presient n a new beginning, 4 June 2009,

http://www.whitehuse.gv/the_press_fce/Remarks-by-the-Presient-at-Cair-University-6-04-09/,accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

12 See Barack Obama, Dreams rom my ather: a story o race and inheritance, rev. en (New Yrk: Three Rivers Press,2004).


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Althugh sceptical, Arab an Muslim pinin-rmers all kins praise Obamasnuance an civilize tne; but they apte a cautius, wait-an-see attitue.

The iscnnect between the transrmative nature Obamas rhetric an hiscentrist plicies, largely ahering t the status u, isappinte critics at hme

n bth let an right wh lke r ielgical clarity an purity. The air isals thick with liberal isappintment because Obamas unwillingness t clsewn Bushs 9/11 wars an heal the scars, incluing the US military prisn atGuantnam Bay. Even the sympathetic Zbigniew Brzezinski, a rmer NatinalSecurity Avisr t Presient Jimmy Carter, nte the mismatch between therhetric an the reality the Obama aministratin: I greatly amire his insightsan unerstaning. I nt think he really has a plicy thats implementingthse insights an unerstanings. Brzezinski ae: He esnt strategize. Hesermnizes.13

White Huse fcials ismiss uestins abut the absence an Obama ctrine

as irrelevant. They argue that in cntrast t his preecessr, Obama stresses bureau-cratic efciency, mesty an humility ver ielgy an assertin Americaspwer an its eceptinalism. I cnitins change, he will recnsier ecisinsi the shit serves American natinal interests.14 Obama state in 2011: When yustart applying blanket plicies n the cmpleities the current wrl situatin,yure ging t get yursel int truble.15

Obamas realist reign plicy is mre cautius than transrmatinal, but thises nt preclue it rm achieving transrmatinal utcmes, such as ArabIsraeli peace. Theretically, with his nuance views the Mile East crisis an

recgnitin the lcal cntet, Obama cul leverage a realist reign plicy tmatch the transrmatinal aspiratins his rhetricbut nly i he is willingt ully engage with the regin an priritize it by investing precius pliticalcapital at hme.

A bar too high

Obamas ailure t implement plicy t match his rhetric is nt reective strategic issnance, but rather the Presients inability t tackle the ysunc-

tinal American plitical system an rerientate his reign plicy rm preservingthe status u t achieving tangible utcmes. While Obama has use har anst pwer t maintain a stable curse, he has nt tappe int the presiencysetrarinary pwer, nr has he ully utilize the etrarinary events in theMile East since 2011 t eect change in Americas ealings with the regin.

Hampere by entrenche special interest grups an the cntinuing legacy the Bush aministratin, Obama has nt been able t translate his prmisesint cncrete plicies, pening himsel up t the charges that his reign plicyapprach is mule an resembles that his preecessrs. The result is that mst

13

Lizza, The cnseuentialist; Zbigniew Brzezinski, Frm hpe t auacity, Foreign Aairs 89: 1, Jan.Feb.2010.

14 Lizza, The cnseuentialist;Davi Remnick, Behin the curtain, New Yorker, 5 Sept. 2011.15 Cite in Lizza, The cnseuentialist.


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the gwill accrue in the Muslim wrl has largely been spent, an whatremains is a wiesprea cnvictin that the Unite States is weak, nancially anmilitarily, an plitically cripple by a ysunctinal plitical system.

On assuming fce, Obama an his reign plicy team unerestimate the

scale the bitter legacy he ha inherite in US Mile East plicy: the warsin Ira an Aghanistan; invlvement in etrarinary renitin an trture;alliances with ppressive autcrats; unuestining supprt r Israel; an seriuschallenges pse by Iran an Pakistan. Obama ace an ecnmic recessin athme, while the ascent China an Inia prtene a shit rm uniplarity tmultiplarity in the internatinal system.

In cntrast t his cnservative ppnents, Obama an his aies ha a vivi sense American ecline relative t the new rising pwers an wante t rebalancereign plicy pririties away rm the Mile East t the Pacic Ocean an Asia.Despite Obamas lty rhetric abut a new start in relatins between the Unite

States an Muslim cuntries, the regin i nt rank very high n his agena.Putting Americas scal huse in rer an renewing its lng-term ecnmicstrength were Obamas pririties. That meant reucing the natins cmmitmentsabra, especially in the Mile East, where they have etene beyn vitalnatinal interests.

In a jint televisin interview with Obama an Hillary Clintn t mark hereit rm the State Department in January 2013, Clintn relates what Obama saiwhen he ere her the highest psitin in his cabinet. Obama basically sai,Yu knw, weve gt this majr ecnmic crisis that may push us int a epres-

sin. Im nt ging t be able t a lt t satisy the built-up epectatins rur rle arun the wrl. S yure ging t have t get ut there an, yuknw, really represent us while I eal with, yu knw, the ecnmic catastrpheI inherite.16 Clintns insight is revealing because it shws that rm the utset his presiential term, Obamas pririties were mestic, an primarily ecnmic.Freign aairs, incluing the Mile East, i nt rank high n his agena. It isn wner, then, that when ace with challenges in the Mile East, Obama hasmre ten than nt cut his lsses an reraine rm eepening US invlvementthere. In case ater case, Obama has shwn an inclinatin t keep a istance rm

the regins scial an plitical turmil an raging cnicts, a chice that is cnsis-tent with his wrl-view an pririties.

Obamas greatest test: the Arab Spring uprisings

The 2011 uprisings came as a surprise t Presient Obama. The US reign plicyestablishment ha nt seriusly cnsiere r envisine a pst-autcratic MileEast, an ismisse warnings abut ppular issent as a mestic prblem that theregins security services cul cntain.17 While Obama prjecte a new rhetricalpsture twars the Mile East, he als recgnize that Americas cre natinal

16 60 minutes: the Presient an the Secretary State, aire n CBC News n 27 Jan. 2013, http://www.cbsnews.cm/vie/watch/?i=50139849n, accesse 18 Feb. 2013.

17 Ken Dilanian, U.S. intelligence fcial acknwleges misse Arab Spring signs, Los Angeles Times, 19 July 2012.


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interestssecurity energy resurces, stability US traitinal alliesmust bepreserve. Thus it is n wner that the Obama aministratin uietly embracepr-American autcratic rulers, like Hsni Mubarak in Egypt, whse help wasneee in tackling terrrism, nuclear prlieratin, energy security an the

ArabIsraeli cnict. This histric blinness stems rm misguie cncepts anpremises abut the structure Mile Eastern scieties an pliticsin essence,t much emphasis n high an elite plitics an nt enugh n the weight scial mvements an public pinin.

Obama initially pursue a subtle an nn-interventinist apprach twarsemcracy prmtin in the regin.18 While he vice his preerence r pengvernments because they reect the will the peplean implicit criticism Mubarak an ther Arab autcratshe i nt aress the wiesprea abuse citizens rights in many Muslim cuntries. Hwever, White Huse aies statethat in August 2010 Obama sent a ve-page mem t his tp avisers entitle

Plitical rerm in the Mile East an Nrth Arica, in which he urge themt challenge the traitinal iea that stability in the regin always serve vitalUS interests.19 Obama reprtely wante t weigh the risks bth cntinuesupprt r increasingly unppular an repressive regimes an a strng push bythe Unite States r rerm.20 Accring t a White Huse fcial, the reviewreueste by Obama cnclue that the cnventinal wism in US plicy circleswas wrng, just as the Tunisian prtest mvement gathere mmentum: All rasle t plitical rerm.21

The Obama reign plicy team, le by Secretary State Hillary Clintn,

pursue a uiet, graual, lw-risk apprach twars the prmtin humanrights. The State Department nte in annual reprts an speeches that humanrights vilatins were ccurring in the Mile East. Nevertheless, the Obamareign plicy team neither anticipate the gathering strm in Egypt nr eertepressure n Mubarak t change his authritarian ways.

In this cntet, the scial turmil that erupte n 25 January 2011 was a shck tMubarak an Obama alike. The Obama reign plicy team initially reacte withhesitancy an ambivalence t the unling crisis.22 As swelling prtests spreaan rce Mubarak t step wn, Obama shite gears an nally abannene Americas lngest-surviving allies in the Mile East. The aministratincame uner mestic criticism r sening mie messages t Mubarak an theprtesters, tentatively backing Mubarak bere eciing t thrw its ull supprtbehin the prtesters emaning his remval.23

18 Barbara Slavin, Obamas Mile East emcracy prblem, Foreign Policy, 5 March 2010, http://www.reignplicy.cm/articles/2010/03/05/bamas_mile_east_emcracy_prblem, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

19 Peter Baker, Cheer leaers, New York Times, 13 Feb. 2011.20 Baker, Cheer leaers.21 Baker, Cheer leaers.22 Eclusive: Bien iscusses unrest in Egypt, keeping U.S. cmpetitive, The runwn blg, PBS NewsHour,

27 Jan. 2011, http://www.pbs.rg/newshur/runwn/2011/01/eclusive-bien-iscusses-unrest-in-egypt-

keeping-us-cmpetitive.html, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.23 Aam Entus an Julian E. Barnes, U.S. wavers n regime change, Wall Street Journal, 5 March 2011,http://nline.wsj.cm/article/SB10001424052748703580004576180522653787198.html?m=WSJEUROPE_newsreel_wrl, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.


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As the storm gathered steam over 18 days, Obama straddled a policy rit within hisadministration. While the diplomats in the State and Deense Departments viewedthe crisis through the lens o American strategic interests in the region, particularlyits threat to the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel, and its efects on the

Middle East peace process, West Wing staf worried that too much preoccupationwith stability could put a historic president on the wrong side o history.24

Frm the beginning the revlutin until the remval Mubarak, Obamatk a pragmatic view hw t use Americas limite inuence t eect changein Egypt. It was nt until 1 February, llwing Mubaraks eant speech anreusal t resign, that Obama nally instructe his aies t eman that meaningulplitical rerm must begin nw. He i nt want his aministratin t be seen asprtecting a ictatr against the wishes the majrity his peple, particularlythe yung peple, thus lsing the sympathy Egypts ppulatin.

At the same time, Obamas verriing cncern was eective management

the crisis an smth plitical transitin. Obama an his Secretary State earethat, like ther revlutins, the Egyptian revlutin cul be hijacke by anti-emcratic Islamist rces. Overall, Islam-base grups an mvements such asthe Muslim Brtherh, Hamas an Hezbllah ten t be viewe suspiciuslywithin US plicy circles an cnsiere a threat t US natinal interests. Incntrast, pr-western lcal autcratic rulers were seen as the lesser tw evilspliant, urable an preictable.25

Barely an hur ater Mubarak annunce n 1 February that he wul nt runr presient again, Obama calle an tl him that he ha nt gne ar enugh.

It is time t present t the peple Egypt its net gvernment, Obama tl hisEgyptian cunterpart, accring t a senir fcial. The uture yur cuntryis at stake.26 What appeare t be a betrayal was, in act, a calculate mve byObama t cut his lsses, because Mubarak ha becme a liability t the UniteStates. His ecisin t abann Mubarak herale n transrmatin Americanreign plicy, because the aministratin was selective an iscriminate in itsapprach, treating each cuntry ierently an separately. As a senir fcialnte: There is a nee r plitical, ecnmic an scial rerm, but the particularapprach will be cuntry by cuntry.27 Fr eample, althugh Obama maintainesteay pressure n Mubarak t resign, an n the Egyptian army t eliver n theemans the prtesters, he remaine remarkably restraine abut the escalatingrepressin by the minrity-base Bahraini mnarchy against the pr-emcracymvement in that cuntry.28

Saui Arabia ppse Obamas psitive apprach twars the prtesters inTunisia an Egypt an rebue US erts t encurage Gul cuntries t institute

24 Helene Cper, Mark Lanler an Davi E. Sanger, In U.S. signals t Egypt, Obama strale a rit, NewYork Times, 12 Feb. 2011.

25 Niall Fergusn, Wante: a gran strategy r America, Newsweek, 14 Feb. 2011, http://www.newsweek.cm/2011/02/13/wante-a-gran-strategy-r-america.html, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

26

Fergusn, Wante: a gran strategy r America.27 Entus an Barnes, U.S. wavers n regime change.28 Jim Lbe, U.S. keeps uiet ver Bahrain repressin, Inter Press Service (IPS), 13 April 2011; Rbert Dreyuss,

Hw Barack Obama encurage Egypts revlutin, The Nation, 15 Feb. 2011.


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meaningul rerms an meet the legitimate aspiratins their peple.29 Sauirulers escribe Obamas stance as naive an angerus.30 Bahrain prviea test wills between a ivie US aministratin an a etermine reginalneighbur, Saui Arabia. Initially, the Obama reign plicy team cautine

the authritarian Al Khalia ryal amily in Bahrain against using ecessive rceagainst its peple an encurage King Hama t unertake serius rerms inrer t avert a prlnge plitical crisis an vilence. Then a Saui military rceuner Gul Cperatin Cuncil (GCC) auspices entere Bahrain, an the lcalauthrities allwe this rce t suppress the prtesters. In justiying the militaryinterventin, the Sauis an the Obama aministratin accuse Iran inltratingthe Arab Shii ppulatin an hijacking their plitical emans r gestrategicavantage.31 Ater meeting King Abullah Saui Arabia in April 2011ameeting which marke the thawing USSaui tensinsDeense SecretaryRbert Gates acknwlege that he i nt even raise the uestin Saui inter-

ventin in Bahrain. Gates an the Saui king iscusse mre pressing issues, suchas the sale mre than US$60 billin wrth arms, in the biggest arms ealever signe by the Unite States, an the mernizatin the kingms missileeence system.

Libya thrws urther light n Obamas anti-ctrinal ctrine. Renerecautius by the lessns Ira an a presse ecnmy at hme, the Presientreuse t take wnership the Libyan missin an insiste that his Eurpeanan Arab allies take charge. His preerence was leaing rm behin, as ppset the Bush mel leaing alne.32 Hwever, in a last-minute ecisin, Obama

backe NATOs military interventin in Libya because he eare that, unlesseterre, Gaa wul carry ut a massacre the rebels in Benghazi.33

Moving sideways but not forward: Syria

Frm the beginning his presiency, Obama has been reluctant t use rceecept when US natinal security is irectly aecte, an even in these cases hehas emphasize a rawn-wn apprach instea an escalatin. Syria is a casein pint. Despite pressure by Republican pliticians an a blbath in Syria,

29 Helene Cper an Mark Lanler, Interests Saui Arabia an Iran cllie, with the U.S. in the mile,New York Times, 18 March 2011, http://uery.nytimes.cm/gst/ullpage.html?res=9F0CE4D81531F93BA25750C0A9679D8B63&re=helenecper, accesse 10 Feb. 2013; Mai Yamani, Guaring the rtress, The WorldToday 67: 4, April 2011, pp. 46; Davi E. Sanger an Eric Schmitt, U.S.Saui tensins intensiy with Mieastturmil, New York Times, 14 March 2011, http://www.nytimes.cm/2011/03/15/wrl/mileeast/15saui.html?scp=5&s=saui%20arabia%20us&st=cse, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

30 Vali Nasr, Will the Sauis kill the Arab Spring?, Blmberg, 23 May 2011, http://www.blmberg.cm/news/2011-05-23/will-the-sauis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html, accesse 18 Feb. 2013.

31 Elisabeth Bumiller, Gates tells Bahrains king that baby steps to reorm arent enough, New York Times,12March 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/world/middleeast/13military.html?scp=23&sq=bahrain&st=cse; Ethan Bronner, Two protesters dead as Bahrain declares state o emergency, New York Times, 15 March2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/middleeast/16bahrain.html; Ethan Bronner and Michael

Slackman, Saudi troops enter Bahrain to help put down unrest, New York Times, 14 March 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/middleeast/15bahrain.html?scp=16&sq=bahrain&st=cse, all accessed 10 Feb. 2013.

32 Lizza, The cnseuentialist.33 Michael Lewis, Obamas way, Vanity Fair, 14 Sept. 2012.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html


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Obama has resiste calls r irect interventin. Having plege t sen Americansliers in harms way nly i American primary interests are engage, the Obamaaministratin es nt view US vital interests as invlve in Syria, a small, prcuntry. Instea, Obama has limite American invlvement in Syria t prviing

plitical an nancial supprt t the ppsitin an waging a war by ther meansagainst the Assa regimeecnmic warare.Recently, reprts have resurace that Obama has verrule his natinal

security team which calle r arming the natinalist elements within the ppsi-tin. Testiying bere the Senate Arme Services Cmmittee in February,General Martin E. Dempsey, the Chairman the Jint Chies Sta, sai thatthe Pentagn, incluing Secretary Deense Len E. Panetta, supprte a plant arm Syrian rebels. Accring t the New York Times, that planevelpein 2012 by Davi H. Petraeus, CIA irectr at the time, an backe by HillaryClintn, wh was then Secretary Statewas presente t the White Huse

an calle r vetting rebels an training ghters wh wul be supplie withweapns. Hwever, with Presient Obama in the mist a re-electin bi, theWhite Huse rebue the plan.34

There is mre t Obamas reusal t supply the Syrian ppsitin with armsthan electral plitics. In a cuple interviews, Obama thrws urther light nthe ratinale r his reticence. In a situatin like Syria, I have t ask, can we makea ierence ? Obama sai in an interview with the New Republic.35 The USPresient sai he has t weigh the benets getting mre entangle in Syrianshiting sans with the ability the Pentagn t supprt cmbat trps still in

Aghanistan, where the Unite States is withrawing trps ater a zen years war. Cul it [US invlvement] trigger even wrse vilence r the use chemical weapns? What ers the best prspect a stable pst-Assa regime?An hw I weigh tens thusans whve been kille in Syria versus the tens thusans wh are currently being kille in the Cng? Obama sai.36 We nby a service when we leap bere we lk, where we take n thingswithut having thught thrugh all the cnseuences it, Obama tl CBS,a US televisin statin.37 We are nt ging t be able t cntrl every aspect every transitin an transrmatin in cnicts arun the wrl, he sai.

Smetimes theyre ging t g sieways.38

In respnse t critics, such as Republican Senatr Jhn McCain Arizna, whhave uestine Obamas ecisin t verrule his natinal security team, WhiteHuse press secretary Jay Carney sai that Obama an his natinal security team

34 Michael R. Grn an Mark Laner, Senate hearing raws ut a rit in U.S. plicy n Syria, New YorkTimes, 7 Feb. 2013, http://www.nytimes.cm/2013/02/08/us/plitics/panetta-speaks-t-senate-panel-n-benghazi-attack.html?re=marklanler, accesse 18 Feb. 2013.

35 Franklin Fer an Chris Hughes, Barack Obama is nt please: the presient n his enemies, the meia,an the uture tball, New Republic, 27 Jan. 2013, http://www.newrepublic.cm/article/112190/bama-interview-2013-sit-wn-presient#, accesse 18 Feb. 2013.

36

Fer an Hughes, Barack Obama is nt please.37 See Rberta Ramptn, Obama says struggling ver whether t intervene in Syria, Reuters,27 Jan. 2013,http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/28/us-obama-syria-idUSBRE90R00V20130128, accessed 18 Feb. 2013.

38 Fer an Hughes, Barack Obama is nt please.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/us/politics/panetta-speaks-to-senate-panel-on-benghazi-attack.html?ref=marklandlerhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/us/politics/panetta-speaks-to-senate-panel-on-benghazi-attack.html?ref=marklandlerhttp://www.newrepublic.com/authors/franklin-foerhttp://www.newrepublic.com/article/112190/obama-interview-2013-sit-down-president#http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112190/obama-interview-2013-sit-down-president#http://www.newrepublic.com/authors/franklin-foerhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/28/us-obama-syria-idUSBRE90R00V20130128http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/28/us-obama-syria-idUSBRE90R00V20130128http://www.newrepublic.com/authors/franklin-foerhttp://www.newrepublic.com/article/112190/obama-interview-2013-sit-down-president#http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112190/obama-interview-2013-sit-down-president#http://www.newrepublic.com/authors/franklin-foerhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/us/politics/panetta-speaks-to-senate-panel-on-benghazi-attack.html?ref=marklandlerhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/us/politics/panetta-speaks-to-senate-panel-on-benghazi-attack.html?ref=marklandler


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have been very careul in weighing the angers. We nt want any weapnst all int the wrng hans an ptentially urther enanger the Syrian peple,ur ally Israel r the Unite States, Carney tl reprters. We als nee t makesure any supprt we are prviing actually makes a ierence in pressuring Assa.

Carney urther sai that there is n shrtage weapns in Syria, s the US hascuse ur erts n helping the ppsitin t becme strnger, mre chesivean mre rganize.39

Althugh the Obama aministratin insists that Assa must step wn, it esnt have the will r esire t intervene militarily because ears escalatinreginally an internatinally. There is als aniety within the aministratinabut the rise in strength raical jihaist grups like the Al-Nusra Frnt an arepeat the Ira an Libyan scenaris: We have seen etremist elements insin-uate themselves int the ppsitin, an yu knw, ne the things that we havet be n guar abutparticularly when we start talking abut arming ppsi-

tin guresis that we are nt inirectly putting arms in the hans lks thatwul Americans harm, r Israelis harm r therwise engage in, in actinsthat are etrimental t ur natinal security, Obama sai at a Nvember 2012news cnerence.40

Ater his cnrmatin as Secretary State, Jhn Kerry reiterate the amin-istratins aniety: serius uestins, he sai, are raise by the invlvement withthe rebels terrrist grups, such as the Al-Nusra Frnt an Al-aea in Ira,an the US is eeply cncerne abut Assas stckpiles chemical weapns.41As t the way rwar, Kerry sai: Were taking a lk at what steps, i any

iplmatic, particularlymight be able t be taken in an ert t try t reucethat vilence an eal with the situatin.42 Translatin: Obama preers mre aplitical settlement that eases Assa ut pwer than a prlnge arme cnictthat may estry the Syrian state an the cuntrys scial abric. Obamas clseaies have hpe that the ppsitin wul make imprtant military gains thatwul rce Assa t step wn withut the nee r irect western militaryinterventin. They als hpe that Russia wul change its psitin twars Syriaan eert mre pressure n Assa t accept the inevitable.

Neither apprach has brne ruit. The result is iplmatic an plitical ealck

an military stalemate. Signalling a new shit in plicy, the Obama aministratinis reviewing its Syrian plicy an is accring t US an Eurpean fcials cnsi-ering irect engagement with the arme ppsitinprviing euipment suchas by armur an armure vehicles, an pssibly military trainingan culsen humanitarian assistance irectly t the ppsitins plitical calitin.43 Butit remains t be seen i Obama will shit psitin an intervene militarily in the

39 Terry Atlas an Nicle Gauette, Kerry says U.S. evaluating Syria ptins ater ivie, Blmberg, 8 Feb.2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-08/kerry-says-u-s-evaluating-syria-options-ater-divide.html,accesse 18 Feb. 2013.

40 Rbert Dreyuss, Obama n Petraeus, Iran an Syria, The Nation, 14 Nv. 2012, http://www.thenatin.cm/

blg/171264/bama-petraeus-iran-an-syria#, accesse 18 Feb. 2012.41 Atlas an Gauette, Kerry says U.S. evaluating Syria ptins.42 Atlas an Gauette, Kerry says U.S. evaluating Syria ptins.43 Karen DeYung, U.S. mves twar prviing irect ai t Syrian rebels, Washington Post, 27 Feb. 2013.
http://www.thenation.com/authors/robert-dreyfusshttp://www.thenation.com/blog/171264/obama-petraeus-iran-and-syriahttp://www.thenation.com/blog/171264/obama-petraeus-iran-and-syria#http://www.thenation.com/blog/171264/obama-petraeus-iran-and-syria#http://www.thenation.com/blog/171264/obama-petraeus-iran-and-syria#http://www.thenation.com/blog/171264/obama-petraeus-iran-and-syria#http://www.thenation.com/blog/171264/obama-petraeus-iran-and-syriahttp://www.thenation.com/authors/robert-dreyfuss


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war-trn cuntry in the reseeable uture unless smething catastrphic happensthere, such as use chemicals weapns. In his 2013 State the Unin aress,Obama wnplaye epectatins by saying little abut Syria. He merely sai hewul keep pressure n the Syrian gvernment an supprt the Syrian ppsi-

tin plitically, while, in cntrast, he vice cnenceas he ha in his 2012aressthat Assa wul sn be rce t relinuish pwer.44 Fr nw, theSyrian carnage cntinues with n light at the en the tunnel.

O all the eplanatins ere r Obamas reluctance t take an active rle inthe Syrian crisis, the mst persuasive are the lessns that he learne rm Ira. TheUnite States shul nt entangle itsel militarily in istant lans, especially in theMile East, unless its strategic interests are at stake, an unless there is a relativecnsensus in the internatinal arena that can be translate int a Unite NatinsSecurity Cuncil reslutin. A relate lessn that Obama has repeately stresseis that given the gravity Americas scial an ecnmic prblems, his cus is

n natin-builing at hme, as ppse t military ventures an natin-builingabraa reversal pririties rm his preecessr.

The 2011 Arab uprisings rce Obama t recnsier his engagement withthe regin. In a speech May 2011 laying ut his apprach twars the Arabrevlts, Obama sught t realign US reign plicy in the Arab regin by sayingthat the Unite States ha a stake nt just in the stability natins, but in thesel-eterminatin iniviuals. Develping what amunte t a new USapprach t the Arab wrl, Obama sai that America wul prmte substan-tive plitical an ecnmic rerm acrss the regina set universal rights

an wul supprt transitins t emcracy. Our supprt r these principlesis nt a secnary interest, he stresse: tay I am making it clear that it isa tp pririty that must be translate int cncrete actins, an supprte byall the iplmatic, ecnmic an strategic tls at ur ispsal.45 Striking anunusually blunt nte, he remine his State Department auience that a strategybase slely upn the narrw pursuit US interests wul nt bring stability,prsperity r reem t the peple the regin: Mrever, ailure t speak tthe braer aspiratins rinary peple will nly ee the suspicin that hasestere r years that the Unite States pursues ur interests at their epense,

he state.46

Trying t erase any ubt abut US supprt the call r change,Obama inirectly acknwlege that his aministratin ha nt been cnsistentin its stance twars allies like Bahrain an Yemen that have suppresse issent,thugh he reprache them with nly a slap n the wrist, reserving his harshestcriticism r es such as Libya, Syria an Iran.

Irnically, while the US meia escribe Obamas speech as a key plicy cu-ment that herale a new apprach twars the regin, ew Egyptians an Arabs

44 Michael R. Grn, Kerry says trip will cus n ning Syria slutin, New York Times, 13 Feb. 2013,http://www.nytimes.cm/2013/02/14/us/plitics/kerry-says-he-is-preparing-prpsals-n-syria-crisis.html,

accesse 18 Feb. 2013.45 Obamas Mieast speech, 19 May 2011, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.cm/2011/05/20/wrl/mileeast/20prey-tet.html?pagewante=all, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

46 Obamas Mieast speech.
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tune in, unlike the large auience r his 2009 Cair aress. What Obama ereEgypt, a pr cuntry sale with mre than US$30 billin in ebts an acinga grave scial an ecnmic crisis, was t little, t late.47 The glw his Cairaress t the Muslim wrl has ae. There nw eists cnsierable scepticism

abut US gals an abut Obamas ability r willingness t eliver n his prmises.

48

A majr reasn r Arab suspicin the Unite States lies in the incnsis-tency American supprt r transrmatin in varius parts the Arab wrl,ntably its ailure t supprt the Palestinians r the aspiratins the peple Bahrain. Regarless which gvernments emerge ut the rubble pliticalauthritarianism in the Arab wrl, they will have assertive reign plicies thatwill champin Palestinian rights an challenge Israels hegemny.

The recent revlutinary upheaval acrss the Arab wrl shws that evelp-ments in the Mile East ten have a lie their wn an alter the reign plicypririties American presients. In this respect, Obama cnrms t the rule,

rather than being the eceptin. Althugh he initially sught t lwer the USprle in the Mile East, the Arab uprisings rce him t recus n the regin.Obama is taking cnsierable risks because he has nt evelpe a cuse strategyt eal with the revlutinary turmil, an he therere has little inuence tshape events there.

The peace process

Obamas stance twars the Arab ppular uprisings resembles his psitin n

ArabIsraeli peace: in neither case has he utilize all the assets an resurces at hisispsal, particularly leaership, t translate his rhetric int actin. The stakes arehigh r American vital interests in the Mile East an r Obamas presientiallegacy as well. Neither the Obama aministratin nr the Israeli gvernment hasrawn lessns rm the ppular uprisings. Althugh the issue the Palestiniansis nt the majr river behin the Arab revlts, it resnates eeply with millins Arabs, a reminer an symbl injustice an victimizatin an Arab ppula-tin. During Egypts revlutin, rermists calle nt just r mestic change,but r a new irectin in reign plicy, especially ne mre supprtive the

Palestinians an ther Arab causes.47 See Chris McGreal, Egypt: brea shrtages, hunger, an unrest, Guardian, 27 May 2008, http://www.

guarian.c.uk/envirnment/2008/may/27/.egypt; Egyptians prtest ver minimum wage,Al Jazeera,2 May 2010, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mileeast/2010/05/201052161957263202.html, bth accesse 10Feb. 2013; Samir Sulayman, The autumn o dictatorship: fscal crisis and political change in Egypt under Mubarak,trans. Peter Daniel (Stanr, CA: Stanr University Press, 2011). Data rm Wrl Bank: Egypt, http://ata.wrlbank.rg/cuntry/egypt-arab-republic. See als Davi Schenker, Egypts enduring challenges: shapingthe post-Mubarak environment,Plicy Fcus n. 110 (Washingtn DC: Plicy Fcus, April 2011), http://www.washingtninstitute.rg/templateC04.php?CID=341; Hw can the U.S. an internatinal nance institutinsbest engage Egypts civil sciety?, Glbal Views, Plicy Papers 2011-06 (Washingtn DC: Glbal Views, June2011), http://www.brkings.eu/papers/2011/06_egypt_civil_sciety.asp; Steen Hertg, The perils ecnmic ppulism in the Mieast, Blmberg, 7 July 2011, http://www.blmberg.cm/news/2011-07-07/

perils--ecnmic-ppulism-in-the-mieast-cmmentary-by-steen-hertg.html, all accesse 10 Feb. 2013.48 Fr the latest Gallup pll, Egypt rm Tahrir t transitin, see Hannah Allam, U.S. ares prly in rstmern plling Egyptian views, McClatchy Newspapers, 25 June 2011, http://www.mcclatchyc.cm/2011/06/25/v-print/116485/us-ares-prly-in-rst-mern.html, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.


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Frm the start his aministratin Obama investe imprtant plitical capitaltrying t help brker an IsraeliPalestinian peace settlement. Unlike previus USpresients, he recgnize the centrality the ArabIsraeli cnict t US relatinswith Arab cuntries an the greater Mile East. One his rst calls as presient

was t the Palestinian presient Mahmu Abbas, t whm he plege that hewul pursue an IsraeliPalestinian peace settlement an help bring abut a Pales-tinian state. Mrever, Obama linke the establishment a Palestinian state t USnatinal security, thus elevating an priritizing the rive r ArabIsraeli peace.

The heavy civilian eath tll in Gaza in 2008, cuple with an utpuring public utrage in the Arab an Muslim wrl at Israeli military actin there,reinrce Obamas cnvictin that the ArabIsraeli cnict neee urgent atten-tin. Yet there has been harly any prgress in the llwing ur years. Theestablishment in Israel, llwing the electins in March 2009, Benjamin Netan-yahus staunchly right-wing gvernment, an its re-electin in January 2013 stalle

any genuine steps twars peace. Netanyahu an his even mre harline calitinpartners nt recgnize the nee r a peaceul settlement with the Palestinians.They are prpnents the ctrine permanent cnict. The clearest pr this lack interest in a peaceul settlement is the cntinue epansin eistingsettlements n the West Bank an the cnstructin new husing units.49

Obama initially insiste that Israel reeze the cnstructin Jewish settlementsn ccupie Palestinian lans. He even cnrnte Netanyahu an impresse nhim the nee t iscuss nal status issues with the Palestinians. But when Netan-yahu reuse t stp builing settlements an publicly ee Obama, the US

presient backe wn an allwe the Israeli prime minister t scre a pliticalvictry. Netanyahu an Obama ha three cnrntatins n the settlements issue,an Obama backe wn each time.

In 2009 in Cair, the newly inaugurate presient ere an inclusive visinr IsraeliPalestinian peace an security; in September 2011 at the UN GeneralAssembly, Obama lai ut the minant Israeli security perspective, which, inhis new view, verries Palestinian security an even sel-eterminatin. TheCair speech was the high pint an even-hane apprach t the ArabIsraelicnict; the UN speech represente a triumph r the Israel rst schl.

Obamas ailure t maintain pressure n Netanyahu has bitterly isappintepinin in the Arab an Muslim wrl, cnrming a wiely hel belie thatObama has nt rescue American reign plicy rm the baleul inuence theIsrael rst schl. Mahmu Abbas, wh initially put all his eggs in Obamasbasket, reache a similar cnclusin. Despite the Obama aministratins threatst eercise its vet in the Security Cuncil an t en Americas nancial supprtr the Palestinian Authrity, Abbas ecie t g t the Unite Natins t seekrecgnitin a Palestinian state.50

49 Report on Israeli settlement, Funatin r Mile East Peace, http://www.mep.rg/reprts/; Reprts, Peace

Nw, http://peacenw.rg.il/eng/cntent/reprts, bth accesse 10 Feb. 2013.50 Steven Lee Myers an Mark Laner, U.S. is appealing t Palestinians t stall U.N. vte, New York Times,3 Sept. 2011; Henry Siegman, September maness, Foreign Policy (The Mile East Channel), 15 Sept. 2011,http://mieast.reignplicy.cm/psts/2011/09/15/september_maness, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.


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In respnse, instea saving Israel rm itsel an ening Americas preer-ences an visin r a peace settlement, Obama prtraye Israel, which ccupiesPalestinian lans, as a victim whse very survival is at stake. Therere, he sai,Israels security, narrwly ene, takes preceence ver Palestinian security an

even sel-eterminatin. Americas cmmitment t Israels security is unshake-able. Our rienship with Israel is eep an enuring. An s we believe that anylasting peace must acknwlege the very real security cncerns that Israel acesevery single ay.51

Why the ramatic shit in Obamas psitin? Timiity alne is nt a sufcienteplanatin. Dmestic plitics intercee, Brzezinski state bluntly.52 Obamaallwe Americas ysunctinal plitical culture t unermine his peace visin aneeat it. US pliticians, incluing Obama, are trappe in a tic plitical culturethat prmtes cnrmity n Israel an strngly iscurages issenting vices.

In 2009, the new Presient was nt as encumbere by natinal plitics as he

was in 2011, when he began ghting r a secn presiential term. He an hisavisers cnvince themselves that challenging the institutinal status u wulmean a lss vtes, mney an, ultimately, fce. As a plitician, Obama hasplaye it sae an catere t special interest grups, even thugh his aies say thatthe Presient has ne s because the natinal interest. During Obamas threeplitical cnrntatins with Netanyahu, his clsest liberal allies in the Cngress,such as Nancy Pelsi, Speaker the Huse, an Senatr Charles Schumer, wulhave eserte him i he ha ecie t eert real pressure n Netanyahu anha threatene t withhl the billins llars the Unite States isburses in

military an nancial ai t Israel. Fr eample, in glaring cntrast t Obamas icyemeanur twars Netanyahu ater their White Huse meeting in March 2010,the US Cngress warmly embrace the Israeli Prime Minister. In a press-lleevent attene by the leaership the Republican an Demcrat parties aterNetanyahus meeting with Obama, Pelsi, a Demcrat an an Obama ally, tlNetanyahu: We in Cngress stan by Israel. In Cngress we speak with ne vicen the subject Israela rare eample cngressinal bipartisanship in starkcntrast t the White Huse stance.

Nita Lwey, a Cngresswman verseeing reign ai apprpriatins t Israel

(abut US$3 billin a year), reassure the Israeli leaership that the ten-yearmemranum unerstaning (amunting t US$30 billin llars) was sli.There is strng bipartisan supprt r Israel in the Cngress that will nt alter,stresse Lwey. Siing with Netanyahu against her wn Presient, she sarcasti-cally aske: Hw can he g t the en stage any iscussin an give away thestre in the mile a negtiatin?

Pelsis an Lweys prnuncements shw clearly the cmpleity the USplitical system an the mestic challenges acing Obama in his ert t avance

51 Helene Cper, Obama says Palestinians are using wrng rum, New York Times, 21 September 2011, http://

www.nytimes.cm/2011/09/22/wrl/bama-unite-natins-speech.html, accesse 18 Feb. 2013.52 Jran Michael Smith, Zbig: Israelis bught inuence an utmaneuvere Obama, Salon, 20 Jan. 2012,http://www.saln.cm/2012/01/20/zbig_israelis_bught_inuence_an_utmaneuvere_bama/singletn,accesse 10 Feb. 2013.
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peace in the Mile East. When it cmes t US reign plicy in the ArabIsraeliarena, Cngress etters the presients hans an limits his ptins. The presiencyis a very pwerul institutin, but Cngress wiels cnsierable pwer an inu-ence, particularly n the ArabIsraeli cnict, an has publicly backe Netan-

yahu by giving him numerus staning vatins, a message that speaks lu anclear. Althugh in the nal analysis Obama wul be able t carry such a plicythrugh, t s wul be plitically cstly, an entail the sacrice therimprtant public plicy pririties.

Time an again in the ArabIsraeli arena, Americas pisnus mesticplitics takes preceence ver strategic cnsieratins, thereby unermining UScreibility an inuence. There is an institutinal cntinuity in US reign plicythat is resistant t the change ccupancy the White Huse.

Obamas retreat n IsraeliPalestinian peace cul nt have ccurre at a wrsemment, r it came uring the transitin rm authritarianism t emcracy

in the Arab wrl, a mment sel-eterminatin that Obama embrace, albeitbelately. On the ne han, Obama recgnize the signicance the mmentin the Arab wrl as a time transrmatins an calle n the wier wrl trespn t the calls r change elsewhere in the regin, particularly in Syria. Onthe ther han, he iscnnecte the Arab wrls pursuit ignity an reemrm the Palestinians pursuit thse same ieals. By ing s he riske being seenas hypcritical, even as he alienate the rising rces t whm he was reaching ut.

There is a real anger that by unerestimating the imprtance Palestiner the newly revitalize Arab civil scieties, the Unite States might n itsel

cnrnte by them. As the Arab revlutins establish a new rer, Palestine, arrm aing away, will be unamental in Arab plitics. The newly minantscial an plitical rces, particularly the rising Islamists, accr high pririty tthe Palestinian cause, an they will increase pressure n Israel t withraw rmthe ccupie territries.53

The uture the mvement r emcracy in the Mile East epens ncreating a lasting IsraeliPalestinian peace an a braer peace between Israel anits neighburs. Turkish Presient Abullah Gl has argue that since the plight the Palestinians was a rt cause the unrest in the regin, an a pretet

r tyranny n behal the ictatrial regimes, whether these uprisings lea temcracy an peace r t [urther] tyranny an cnict will epen n rginga lasting IsraeliPalestinian peace agreement.54 Frmer US Natinal SecurityAvisr Brent Scwcrt, like Obama a realist, cautine that the nature thenew Mile East cannt be knwn until the estering sre the ccupie terri-tries is remve.55

A serius peace initiative by the Unite States that lays ut the terms anal settlement with an enrcement mechanism will g a lng way t strengthen

53 Sarah El Deeb, US raises utreach t Egypts Muslim Brtherh, Assciate Press, 11 Jan. 2012.54

Abullah Gl, The revlutins missing peace, New York Times, 20 April 2011.55 Brent Scowcrot, Obama must not delay in brokering a new Mideast peace, Atlantic Council, 13 April 2011,http://www.acus.rg/new_atlanticist/bama-must-nt-elay-brkering-new-mieast-peace, accesse 18Feb. 2013.
http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/obama-must-not-delay-brokering-new-mideast-peacehttp://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/obama-must-not-delay-brokering-new-mideast-peace


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struggling emcratic rces in Arab scieties an men the histric rit betweenWashingtn an the Muslim wrl. In rer t vercme the bitter legacybetween America an Mile Eastern peples an the baleul legacy internalplitics at hme, Obama must shw leaership an challenge the plitical culture

cnrmity an rthy. He must eucate the US public n the regin antake n eeply entrenche special interests with pwerul plitical cnstituencies.That will reuire the Presient t invest cnsierable plitical capital in builinga cnstituency peace an change at hme an t reallcate the enrmusresurces military prgrammes t peace prgrammes. An, just as imprtant,Obama will have t have the will, reslve an stamina t pursue such a strategy.

The likelih such a transrmative reign plicy visin taking hl isnt prmising. With the eceptin a ew hal-hearte measures, there has beenn cncerte ert t seize the mment an restart peace talks since they revivebriey in September 2010 an ell apart again when Israel ene a mratrium n

settlement cnstructin. Accring t surces in the knw, Obama has given upn trying t brker an IsraeliPalestinian peace settlement. Jeery Glberg, aclumnist with access t Obama an the White Huse, pints ut that althughthe new Secretary State, Jhn Kerry, is sai t be eager t re-energize the peacetalks, Obama is thught t be cnsierably mre wary, believing that Netanyahu iss captive t the settler lbby, an s unintereste in builing briges trust withthe Palestinians, that an investment presiential interest in the peace prcesswul nt be a wise use his time. On matters relate t the Palestinians, writesGlberg, the presient seems t view the prime minister as a plitical cwar,

an essentially unchallenge leaer wh nevertheless is unwilling t lea r spenplitical capital t avance the cause cmprmise.56

Obamas new partner in Ankara

Perhaps Obamas greatest plitical achievement in the Mile East lies in nurishingan eceptinally clse strategic relatinship with Turkey an its utspken PrimeMinister, Recep Tayyip Eran. Frm the utset, Obama sught t repairthe amage ne by Bushs pr stewarship the USTurkish relatinship,

particularly the reverberatins the Ira War. Obama recgnize Turkeyspivtal rle in the Mile East an its value in repairing Americas relatins withMuslims. Despite the cncerte ert American right-wing circles t prtrayEran as a raical Islamist an staunchly anti-Israeli, Obama i nt allw thispartisan nise t aect Americas relatins with Turkey. The Obama aministra-tin has c-pte the new rising gestrategic an ge-ecnmic pwer an lever-age its inuence. In act, the Presient has spent mre time in irect meetingsan n the phne with the Turkish Prime Minister than with any ther leaer inthe wrl.

56 Jeery Glberg, Obama: Israel esnt knw what its best interests are, Blmberg, 14 Jan. 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/what-obama-thinks-israelis-don-t-understand-.html, accessed 18 Feb.2013.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/what-obama-thinks-israelis-don-t-understand-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/what-obama-thinks-israelis-don-t-understand-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/what-obama-thinks-israelis-don-t-understand-.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/what-obama-thinks-israelis-don-t-understand-.html


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What eplains Obamas strategic partnership with Turkey? Having ecie treuce Americas military tprint in the regin an lwer its prle, Obamalke t Turkey, with its liberal, successul ecnmic mel, t ll any pwervacuum there an serve as an eample t neighburing Muslim cuntries. Inee,

Turkey has prvie the Unite States with cultural an strategic epth in itsengagement with the regin. As a lng-staning NATO member, Turkey hasplaye a supprting rle in Aghanistan an nrthern Ira, an until recentlyserve as a strategic meiatr between Iran an the West an between Israel anSyria. As the ebate within the Unite States abut Turkeys rit eastwarheate up in 2011, Eran agree t hst a raar statin in the cuntry as part NATOs American-esigne missile eence system against Iranian attacks.Far rm seeking a revisinist reign plicy in terms its relatins with theUnite States, the new Turkish ruling elite accept the realist interpretatin Mile Eastern plitics avance by the US establishment, thugh they reject the

ne-cnservatives priritizing relatins with Israel. There is much mre cnti-nuity in USTurkish relatins than meets the eye.57 Inee, many US iplmatsuietly say that Turkeys eastern turn is a welcme an benecial evelpmentin substantial part because it herale the eclipse Irans much mre angerusinuence ver the Arab states.58

Nevertheless, the western pwers, incluing the Unite States, can n lngertake Turkey r grante. In the last ecae, the cnuct an actins the newTurkish ruling elite have betraye aspiratins r inepenent leaership anrecgnitin n the internatinal arena; with the Eurpeans grwing cl n its

EU membership, Turkey has slwly shite its cus away rm the EU, an hasmve t imprve its relatins with its Mile Eastern neighburs.

Likewise, impresse by Turkeys ecnmic success an its plitical cnencean vibrancy, cuntries in the regin have shwn a great interest in the newrising Turkish pwer net r. This shit has been reecte in the increasemvement capital, gs an peple between Turkey an its Mile Easternneighburs. Jran, Lebann an Syria have pushe r an integrate ecnmicree trae zne with Turkey, which will bst the energy, investment an turismsectrs all these states ecnmies, althugh the uprising in Syria has ealt a atal

blw t Turkeys relatinship with the Assa regime. Gul citizens are shwing agreater interest in visiting an investing in Turkey, nt t mentin the remarkablerelatinship between Turkey an Irai Kurs, an unthinkable evelpment a ewyears ag. Thus, Turkey has returne t the Mile Easts much s, in act, thatsme analysts argue that the l Ottman sul Turkey has been reawakene.59

As Ankara has evelpe clser links an cmmn interests with its neigh-burs, it has becme mre actively engage in the reginal cnicts it ha nceavie. Erans ascent t the premiership in 2003 marke a eparture rmTurkeys eclusive lve aair with the West. That lve aair has nt cmpletely

57

Hasan Ksebalaban, Turkish oreign policy: Islam, nationalism, and globalization (New Yrk: Palgrave Macmillan,2011).

58 Dug Sauners, Why the West uietly cheers Turkeys rise, Globe and Mail, 17 Sept. 2011.59 Hugh Ppe, Pa Ottmana?, Foreign Aairs 89: 6, Nv.Dec. 2010.


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sure, as sme cmmentatrs claim, an Turkeys cmmitment t NATO anthe EU remains strng.60 What has change is that the new Turkey asserts itselmre as an inepenent actr rather than as a subservient client the West, thusreecting ppular views in Turkey an the cuntrys vital natinal interests.

As Arab states have unergne sweeping plitical change since 2011, Turkeyhas becme much mre imprtant than bere t US reign plicy. In the cases Libya an Syria, the Obama aministratin has crinate its actins withTurkey. Given the cmpleity the Syrian crisis an the cnstraints n USplicy, Obama initially relie n Eran t eert real pressure n Assa anrce him ut. O all utsie pwers, Turkey, which until recently ha a warmrelatinship with the Assa regime, is the nly state that has implicitly threatenet use rce there (t establish a humanitarian buer zne insie the cuntry)i the UN Security Cuncil were t sanctin such a mve. Althugh tensinseist between Ankara an Washingtn ver Syria, they cllabrate clsely an

the Obama aministratin supprte Turkeys reuest t eply Patrit missilesn its brer with Syria r eensive purpses. Obamas aies praise Turkey rbacking the emcratic uprisings in varius Arab cuntries an r serving asan eample r millins Arabs, as well as shwing the way r rising Islamistparties in Arab states.

The Obama aministratin iers with Turkey n a number issues, particu-larly Israel, Iran an the Kurs. But it practises uiet iplmacy an es nt allwplicy ierences t stan in the way the tw cuntries strategic partnership;it recgnizes the rise a gestrategic an ge-ecnmic pwer an crinates

plicy t tackle reginal crises. Far rm viewing Turkeys assertiveness aninepenent psture as a threat, Obama sees Eran as an asset wh might ll theleaership vacuum in this turbulent neighburh an allw the Unite Statest shit its wn reign plicy cus t Asia an the Pacic regin. Given Obamasmestic an reign plicy pririties, Turkey has emerge as a key player thatbth substitutes r an augments eclining American pwer in the Mile East.Obamas clse relatinship with Eran is a result shiting pwer cngura-tins in the regin an the internatinal system.

Playing poker with Tehran

I the wrking relatinship with Turkey is Obamas greatest reign plicyachievement, his apprach twars Iran is his greatest gamble. His early prmise iplmatic engagement has been replace by cnrntatin. By the time Obamas inauguratin, Iran eature as ne the mst pressing natinalsecurity challenges r the Unite States, an the new Presient agree with thisassessment.

Cnsiering Bushs Manichaean reign plicy ineective in changing Tehransbehaviur, Obama ere t engage with Iran. Fr the ve mnths ater his inau-guratin, Obama repeate the same message in an ert t persuae Iran t abann

60 Ksebalaban, Turkish oreign policy.


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its nuclear ambitins. Yet, espite his verbal vertures, Obama ha ecie tmaintain ecnmic sanctins against Iran in rer t keep up the pressure.61 Thus,like his preecessr, Obama apte a ual-track plicy twars Iran, rather thanthe mre nuance apprach he prmise.

The Iranian leaership i nt buy Obamas rhetric engagement anresente his ual-track apprach. Ayatllah Ali Khamenei ismisse Obamasgestures as empty talk: They say they etene their arms twars Iran. Whatkin han? I it is an irn han cvere with a velvet glve, then it will ntmake any g sense. He cnclue by saying: Yu change, an we will alschange ur behaviur, t.62

As 2011 rew t a clse, the Unite States an Iran un themselves n apath twars war. In December 2011 Cngress passe a eence authrizatin billthat inclue bilateral sanctins n the Central Bank Iran. Althugh Obamaepresse reservatins, he signe it int law. The Unite States an its Eurpean

allies are waging all-ut ecnmic war against the Tehran gvernment animpsing punishing sanctins against its il an banking sectrs, incluing theCentral Bank. Iranians are suering, an ecnmic pain can be elt n the streetsin saring prices r state-subsiize gs an a cllapse the currency: the riallst 40 per cent its value against the llar between Nvember an December2011. Reuters reprte increases in the price staples up t 40 per cent.63Ahmaineja tl parliament that the latest sanctins were the mst etensive sanctins ever an that this is the heaviest ecnmic nslaught n a natin inhistry every ay, all ur banking an trae activities an ur agreements are

being mnitre an blcke.64 A new run sanctins against Irans nancialan banking sectr in early 2013 will blee the cuntrys ecnmy urther.

Obama believes that these sanctins can curb Irans nuclear prgramme ithey are given mre time t wrk. At the same time, the Presient has askethe Pentagn t cme up with military ptins r a pssible strike against Iransnuclear prgramme. The Obama aministratins psitin n military actin isn lnger ambiguus. In a speech bere the annual cnventin AIPAC, thepr-Israel lbbying grup, in March 2012, Obama sai: Irans leaers shul knwthat I nt have a plicy cntainment; I have a plicy t prevent Iran rm

btaining a nuclear weapn.65

But the US Presient has nt accepte Israels keyeman that military actin be taken bere Iran acuires the ability t manuac-ture a bmb, as ppse t bere it actually buils ne.

61 09BRUSSELS536, IRAN SANCTIONS: AA/S GLASER BRIEFS EU ON PRIORITY, http://wikileaks.rg/cable/2009/04/09BRUSSELS536.html, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

62 Iranian leader: Obamas rhetoric not enough, CNN, 21 March 2009, http://articles.cnn.com/2009-03-21/wrl/iran.us.bama_1_iaea-icial-islamic-republic-news-agency-ayatllah-ali-khamenei?_s=PM:WORLD,accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

63 Parisa Haezi, Iran reprts nuclear prgress as sanctins lm, Reuters, 1 Jan. 2012, http://www.reuters.cm/article/2012/01/01/us-iran-missile-iUSTRE80007E20120101, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.

64 Faree Zakaria, Irans grwing state esperatin, Washington Post,5 Jan. 2012, http://www.washingtnpst.

cm/pinins/....../gIQA6usPbP_stry.html, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.64 Ofce the Press Secretary, The White Huse, Remarks by the Presient at AIPAC plicy cnerence,4 March 2012, http://www.whitehuse.gv/the-press-fce/2012/03/04/remarks-presient-aipac-plicy-cnerence-0, accesse 10 Feb. 2013.


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There is n enying that Obamas riginal esire t recalibrate USIranianrelatins has nt brne ruit. Obamas plicy crashe n the rcks institutinalresistance at hme an the suspicin US esigns in Tehran that has becmeentrenche since the Iranian Revlutin. Mrever, Irans reginal rivals, particu-

larly Israel, have eerte pressure n the Obama aministratin in an ert t stienits reslve. Even bere his rst term inauguratin, the new Presient ace stiresistance rm bth Republicans wh ppse any rapprochement an Demcratswh believe that engagement wul give Iran time t evelp nuclear weapns.There was als cnsierable scepticism in the Deense Department an the intel-ligence cmmunity abut Irans willingness t abann its nuclear prgramme,an a belie that Iranian leaers wul use engagement as a cver t avance theirnuclear ambitins.

In hinsight, the s were against Obamas early er engagement t theIranian leaershipa single rll the ice, accring t a senir State Depart-

ment fcial.66 There is insufcient plitical will an a lack trust betweenthe Unite States an Iran. The 30-year-l enmity between the tw states hasbecme institutinalize. Fr eample, as tensins intensie between Iran anthe Unite States an its allies in early 2012, Irans supreme leaer Ayatllah AliKhamenei warne that any military strike wul be ten times mre etrimentalt the Unite States than t his natin.

Face with ecnmic warare, Iran has hel naval maneuvres in the Strait Hrmuz an threatene t clse it t cmmerce, leaing t a sharp escalatin inthe lng war wrs between Washingtn an Tehran. There is a real anger

that Iranian r American strategies brinkmanship will lea t a miscalculatinthat triggers a war that wul be isastrus t all.67 I Iran were t use its ullecnmic an military leverage, while it wul curse suer a tremenusblw it wul g wn ghting, sening the wrl ecnmy int a tailspin.

As a shrew analyst n Iran nte, Obama has bught the iea that a strngplicy twars Tehran must be tugh, punishing an cnrntatinal, thuspermitting the ebate t take place n the rights tur. He simply i nt eucatethe American public n the stakes invlve in iplmatically engaging the Iraniansas ppse t the csts a prlnge cnrntatin.68 The Israeli gvernment

use high-level Demcratic nrs t eert aitinal pressure n Obama trsake iplmacy with Iran.69 Neighburing states in the Persian Gul als aetheir vices t Israels. In ther wrs, the plitical csts attempting t reslvetensins with Iran were ecessive, an the plitical space t narrw t justiyembarking n the bumpy path t peace with Tehran.70

On the Iranian sie, internal tensins an rivalries amng the leaership,cuple with eep suspicins Washingtn, paralyse Tehrans ecisin-making

66 Trita Parsi,A single roll o the dice: Obamas diplomacy with Iran (New Haven, CT, an Lnn: Yale UniversityPress, 2012).

67 Parsi,A single roll o the dice.68

Trita Parsi, Hw Obama became vulnerable n Iran, Salon, 31 Jan. 2012, http://www.saln.cm/2012/01/31/hw_bama_became_vulnerable_n_iran/, accesse 18 Feb. 2013.

69 Parsi,A single roll o the dice.70 Parsi,A single roll o the dice.
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prcess an suanere the unpreceente pprtunity ere by the Obamaaministratin t embark n a cautius recnciliatin prgramme. In a way, Iranhas been its wn wrst enemy. Even i Obama resists the temptatin t g t war,he will have ene his rst term with a harline psitin n Iran similar t that

his hawkish preecessr. The Unite States an Iran are waging a war-by-pryin Syria, alng with ther reginal an internatinal pwers. Bth view the ragingcnict in Syria as an pprtunity t scre a ecisive victry against the therinee, Obama has publicly sai s. In an interview with the Atlanticmagazine in2012, the US Presient acknwlege that his aministratin ha been wrkingt accelerate the cllapse the Assa regime in Damascus because, as he bluntlyput it: I that happens, that will be a prun lss r Iran.71 Iran has alsstresse that Assas verthrw is a re line an that an attack n Syria wul becnsiere an attack n the Islamic Republic itsel.72

Conclusion

The Obama aministratins apprach in the Mile East reects a vacuum inglbal leaership, a vacuum that is weakening the ability pst-autcraticgvernments t vercme the structural ecnmic an institutinal challengesthat they have inherite rm autcratic rulers. This leaership vacuum stemsrm the act that the Mile East es nt tp Obamas reign plicy agena.The Obama aministratin has shie away rm taking a leaership rle in thenn-il-prucing Arab cuntries, because the aile interventinist recr

Gerge W. Bush an because its wn key reign plicy pririties lie in Asia.Unlike their Latin American an east Eurpean cunterparts in the 1990s, the

Arabs are n their wn, with meagre internatinal assistance. Egyptian fcialsbitterly cmplain that mst the reign ai plege ater the remval Mubarak, especially that prmise by Arab Gul states, has nt been elivere.The Egyptian an Tunisian ecnmies are in tatters an ace severe vulnerabili-ties in the cming years. Other Arab ecnmies, such as Yemen, Syria an, ta lesser etent, Libya, have almst cllapse. The Unite States, tgether withthe Eurpean Unin, Japan, China an the il-prucing Arab cuntries, has ntmae structural investments in these Arab scieties acing prun transitins.

The challenge acing US reign plicy is t strike a balance between keepinga healthy istance rm the Arab regins plitical an scial turmil anprviing leaership an a set glbal initiatives t smth the transitin tecnmic viability, slvency an emcratic plitics. Time an again, the MileEast intrues unepectely an angerusly int the reign plicy agena American presients. Obama is n eceptin. The Arab ppular uprisings an Iranhave rce Obamas han an cmplicate his reign plicy agena. There arestrms gathering n the hriznnt just in Iran, but als in Egypt, Ira, Syria,Aghanistan an Pakistan. Obama inherite these angers rm his preecessrs,

71 Jeery Glberg, Obama t Iran an Israel: As Presient the Unite States, I nt blu , Atlantic,2 March 2012.

72 Tehran: attack n Syria wul be seen as attack n Iran,Reuters, 26 Jan. 2013.


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an they pse severe risks t his presiency. As a rmer US reign plicy fcialput it: Americas stck is lwer than its ever been, its partners are gne, alngwith the amiliar ba guys, an its nt at all clear wh r what will take the place thse partners. We cnrnt nt just an Arab Spring but an array uncertain-

ties cmple enugh t run many years t cme.

73

As this article has argue, the uncertainties stem rm an altere reginalenvirnment an a glbal reistributin pwer away rm a uniplar systemminate by the Unite States t an internatinal system with multiple pwercentres. Obama an his reign plicy team have acknwlege Americas relativeecline an the urgent nee t wrk with ther pwers t manage transitin inthe regin. Aware waning US inuence in Libya, Syria an elsewhere, Obamahas reraine rm taking the lea in ealing with the grave crises there an hascalle n Americas allies an thers t step rwar an shuler their respnsi-bilities. His aministratin is wary making substantive investments, preerring

retrenchment an selective cmmitments.Americas preicament in the Mile East is stark, a bitter inheritance mre

than hal a century in the making, an springing rm systemic ailures t viewthe regin rm the insie an t limit the ecessive rle mestic pliticsan special interests in riving US plicy. These pints may be bvius, but likether plain truths they bear repeating an emystiying. Fr the last ew ecaes,a revlt has been brewing against American hegemny in the regin, reaching itsclima ater the US launche its wars llwing 9/11.

Obama has attempte t men the wiening rit between America an the

Mile East an recalibrate relatins. The Arab revlts have rce him t becmemre engage in the area. As a realist, nn-ielgical presient, his central galis t minimize the amage t vital American interests an manage the transitin.But the writing is n the wall. America might be reaching the en its mmentin the regin, the en its hegemnic cntrl. Pr-US Arab clients have allenlike ripe ruit in Egypt, Tunisia an Yemen, an thers are teetering n the brink cllapse. With the rise an awakene Arab pinin, the US aces an uncertainwrl, a wrl whse rules ier ramatically rm the l nes. It is ubtul ithe Unite States can impse its cntrl in this new wrl as it i ater the en

the Cl War.Fr eample, in Ira, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki cul nt prvie legalimmunity t US trps s as t enable the Obama aministratin t keep a sizeablecntingent in the cuntry. Irai public pinin turne against the US militarypresence, s that Obama ha n chice but t withraw all unirme rces rmthe cuntry, putting an en t a venture that has been cstly in bth bl antreasure. Similarly, even the Palestinian Presient Mahmu Abbas ecie tg t the Unite Natins an seek recgnitin r a state against US wishes anespite verwhelming pressure (an even threats) rm the Obama aministratin.The Unite States is n lnger seen as mniptent; an the Arab uprisings willmst likely weaken American inuence urther.

73 Aarn Davi Miller, Arab Spring, American Winter, Los Angeles Times, 13 Nv. 2011.


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323

But as pr-US Arab ictatrs all an new plitical rces take their place, theObama aministratin has recalibrate its apprach in recgnitin new realities.Fr eample, when religius activists an Islamists wn a majrity parliamen-tary seats in Tunisia, Mrcc an Egypt, the aministratin reverse a ecaes-

lng plicy an engage with these grups. This was a testament t its pragmatisman realism. Since Obamas presiency began, he has ha t pursue amage cntrlin ealing with the repercussins the Bush aministratins aile plicies;because this, his successes have been less apparent, an his ailures mre clearlyevient. In a way, he is the rst presient t begin the prcess nrmalizingrelatins with the peple the regin.

Liberate rm the plicy straitjacket Bushs wars, an ree rm the timiepeiency emane by a lming re-electin campaign, a secn-term Obamacul ptentially she his plitical inhibitins an escape the trappings specialinterest grups in an ert t establish Americas prgressive leaership in the new

Mile East. Initial inicatrs, hwever, are unprmising. Increasing evienceshws that Obama is unlikely t shit his apprach t the Mile East unless amajr catastrphe ccurssuch as war in the Persian Gul.

One the key arguments this article is that Obama has shwn in his reignplicy in the Mile East mre cntinuity with the past than real change. FrmPalestinianIsraeli peace t Aghanistan, Obamas cnuct testies t the struc-tural an institutinal cntinuity US reign plicy, which, time an again,ails. Despite his initial ert t brker an IsraeliPalestinian settlement, Obamaallwe special interest grups t unermine his peace rive an sabtage it.

He i nt have the curage his cnvictins when it came t challenging theysunctinal American plitical system an engineering change. He allwecynical realism t ictate plicy, a pattern that has ten minate the making US reign plicy twars the Mile East since the en the Secn WrlWar.

As the l British saying ges: In r a penny, in r a pun. Nw is a timer curage, leaership an bl mves in the regin; a time r sheing thetrappings ailure an grupthink. Obama has successully mve the UniteStates ut the itch in which Gerge W. Bush let the cuntry. But the test

this Presient will be whether r nt he can realign US reign plicy withprgressive an emcratic vices in the regin an translate his wrs intcncrete plicies.

Documents

The Obama approach to the Middle East. the end of America's moment.pdf