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The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040
Kyle CountrymanMarch 6, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
100 countries
15 demandsectors
20 fueltypes
Energy Outlook Model
technology & policy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.9%
Energy Demand
Energy Saved ~500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 20400
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
Global Progress Drives Demand
BillionPopulation GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.9%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
0.7%
Quadrillion BTUs
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
2010
2040
-0.2%
1.6%
2.2% 0.3%
6.0% 1.6%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
0.9%
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
U.S. Energy Demand and Supply
By SectorQuadrillion BTUs
By FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Res/Comm
Oil
Gas
Coal
NuclearBiomass
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity GenerationElectricity Generation
+80%By 2040, worldwide
electricity demand will be
80% higher.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 2015 2040
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge
k TWhBy Sector
Transportation
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
k TWh
0
15
30
45
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
U.S. Electricity Demand
Electricity Generation by FuelQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Electricity
Heavy Industry
Other Industry
Residential
Commercial
TransportationWind & Solar
Other Renewables
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind * Coal-CarbonCapture
Gas-CarbonCapture
EnhancedGeo-
Thermal
Solar PV* SolarThermal*
$0/ton CO2
2011 cents/kWh
Economic Choices for U.S. ElectricityBaseload, Startup 2030
*Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind * Coal-CarbonCapture
Gas-CarbonCapture
EnhancedGeo-
Thermal
Solar PV* SolarThermal*
$60/ton CO2
2011 cents/kWh
Economic Choices for U.S. ElectricityBaseload, Startup 2030
*Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
TransportationTransportation
90%By 2040, 90% of
transportation will run on
liquid petroleum-based fuels.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000 2020 2040
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by TypeMillion Vehicles
Conv. Gasoline
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EVNatural gas/LPG
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
On-Road MPG
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US Europe China Japan India
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040On-Road MPG
2010
2020-2025 Target2015 Target
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
U.S. Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift
TransportationMBDOE
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
MarineRail
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Light Duty Vehicle FleetMillion Cars
Conv. Diesel
Hybrid
PHV/EV
CNG/LPG
Conv. Gasoline
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
SupplySupply
By 2040
60%of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
MBDOELiquids Supply
Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify
Conventional Crude and Condensate
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Tight Oil
Biofuels
0
1
2
3
4
5
2040
Remaining Resource
Cumulative Production
TBOResource *
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Canada ~2.5 MBDOE
U.S. Gross Liquid Imports
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Mexico ~1.3 MBDOE
Latin America ~2.3 MBDOE
Africa ~2.3 MBDOE
Middle East ~1.7 MBDOE
Europe ~0.7 MBDOE
Russia/Caspian ~0.7 MBDOE
Asia Pacific ~0.2 MBDOE
Total Gross Imports ~12 MBDOE
OPEC ~5 MBDOE
Non-OPEC ~7 MBDOE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North America
Europe OECD
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
1.3
4.1
2.6
2.3
8.1
4.9
4.8
Global Gas Resource
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
• World: ~250 years coverage at current demand
• Large unconventional gains anticipatedWorld
Russia/Caspian*
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 20400
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 20400
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies
BCFDUnited States
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
BCFDEurope Asia Pacific
BCFD
Conventional
Pipeline
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1850 1900 1950 2000
Transition to Modern Energy / Technology
US Energy DemandPercent
Source: Energy Information Agency & ExxonMobil
Wood Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil