The Palestinian bid at the UN and its consequencesدولة فلسطين?

László Csicsmann, PhD12 October 2011

Contemporary Issues in International Relations

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Abbas submits the letter to Ban Ki-moon

• 23 September 2011: Abbas asked for full membership of Palestine within in 1967 borders and with the Jerusalem as capital

• The Palestinian Authority seeks UNESCO membership as a state

• Diplomatic crisis

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Historical context • 1993 – Oslo I. agreement

– 5 years autonomy, final status negotiations (the vision of the two-state solution)

• 2000 – Oslo trauma – start of the second intifada

• 2003: Quartett – roadmap for peace – Until 2005 – establishment a Palestinian State

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1967 war: the occupied territories

1. Gaza Strip: Israeli unilateral disengagement (2005, Ariel Saron)2. West Bank: no clear final borders - negotiations (Oslo I., Oslo II., Wye River Memorandum, Roadmap, etc.)3. Sinai peninsula (1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, 1982)4. Jerusalem (1980 – annexation)5. Golan Heights (secret negotiations)

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The West Banks and Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights

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Political developments between 2006 and 2011

Palestinian Internal Affairs• January 2006 – Hamas won

elections, the goverment of Ismail Haniyya (international isolation)

• 2007 – Mekka accords – reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas – unity goverment

• June 2007 – Abbas dismissed the Hamas goverment

• Military occupation of the Gaza Strip by Hamas

Israel and its neighbours• July-August 2006: second

Lebanese War • June 2006: Hamas

kidnapped Gilad Shalit (end of the cease-fire)• From 2007 joint Israeli-

Egyptian blockad in the Gaza Strip (occupied territory?)

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The Gaza StripSize of the area: 360 km2

(Israel: 20.000, West Bank: 6000)Population: 1,3 – 1,5 millions Palestinian (2/3 UNRWA registered refugees)High population density (4270 person/km2) – Jabaliyya (110.000), Rafah (100.000)Economy: high unemployment (45 % in 2008), poverty (80 %), GDP growth (0 %), GDP per capita (600 USD)

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Blockade of the Gaza StripFrom 2007 joint Israeli-Egyptian blockadeFrom 2005 the border posts of Gaza are under a joint control of the PA, EU, Egypt, Israel)From 2007 Israel only allows the humanitarian aid into the Strip (the traffic is one quarter of the traffic before 2007), movement of people stopped Smuggling tunnels from Egypt (under the Philadelphi route)

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Smuggling tunnels

Egypt – RafahPhiladelphi Route (corridor): arms, rocket, money, other goods,Iran supports Hamas via the tunnels

June 2008 – temporary cease fire (between Israel and Hamas): ease of the blockade (temporary)

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Hamas and rocket attacks against Israel in 2008

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Gaza War(2008/2009): Operation Caste Lead (27 Dec -18 January)

• Casus belli: rocket attacks and Hamas kidnapped Gilad Shalit (UN Charter 51. self-defense)

• Goal: weaken Hamas and strengthen Fatah • Both sides were criticized by the international

community • 1300 Palestinian deaths, 2 billions USD material

damage• Humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza (and the blockade

remains)• Internal Affairs: elections in Israel (beginning of 2009):

Likud – B. Netanyahu formed the goverment

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Attempts to break the blockade (2010)

• Illegal blockade? (UN Geneva conventions)• Israeli arguments: illegal to transfer arms and

material of double use• Hamas: apartheid

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Gaza Freedom Flotilla

• 31 May 2010 – clashes between IDF and the passengers of Mavi Marmara

• 9 Turkish citizens died, dozens injured

• International public opinion codemned Israel

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Pros and Contras

Israeli argument:• Israel recommends to dock the

ships at an Israeli port and transfer tha aid via land routes

• The blockade is legitim by international law

• No precedence to break the blockade

• IDF videos: the passangers have weapons and attacked the soldiers first

• Israeli investigation

Arguments of Turkey• Within the UN framework a

necessity of an International investigation

• Terminate the blockade (illegitim by international law)

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International investigations of the Flottila raid

• Israel: Turkel Committee (Report July 2010: Responsibles: Turkey and Iran. Israeli attack was right. Condemning Israel is part of Antisemitism

• Palemer-Uribe UN Committee: Both Israel and Turkey participate

• UN HRC: Israeli attack was disproportional unnecessary use of brutal force, breach of the 147. paragraph of the 4th Geneva convention

• Commission set up by Turkey: Israel is the sole responsible

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Ease of the Gaza blockade

• Due to international pressure Israel eased the blockade in 2010 (eg. building materials)

• The citizens of Gaza criticized Israel : no employment opportunity

• What is the future of Gaza Strip? (reunification of the West Bank or other?)

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Israeli-Palestinian proxomity talks

• Obama Cairo speech (June 2009): USA supports the two states solution

• USA: the only partner is Abbas (Fatah) and the Hamas excluded from negotiations

• The role of Hillary Clinton and G. Mitchell (special envoy)

• The role of Jordan and Egypt (mediation)

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Clinton, Mitchell, Netanyahu and Abbas

• Different perceptions:• 2009 Hillary Clinton

criticized the Israeli settlement politics

• Israel: the condition of the negotiation: Palestinians should recognize Israel as the Jewish state

• Abbas: Israel must abandon the building of new settlements in the West Bank

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Israeli-Palestinian negotiations (2009-2010)

• Netanyahu 2009 June: Bar Ilan University address: establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state, Jerusalem will remain the undividable capital, no right of return, the right of expansion of the Jewish settlements of the West Bank („natural expansion”)

• 25 November 2009: 10 months moratorium for settlement buildings (East-Jerusalem excluded, but Israeli self-restraint) – Palestinians refused the direct negotiations – indirect talks

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The failure of direct negotiations in 2011

• 2 September 2010: in Washington in the presence of Hosni Mubarak and II. Abdullah direct talks on final status issues

• The Quartett promise: Establishment of a Palestinian State within a year!

• 14 September: Sharm al-Sheikh: the principle of land swap• 26 September 2010: end of the 10 months moratorium –

Israel not extend due to internal political concerns, end of the negotiations

• Netanyahu: Israel extend the moratorium with 60 days if Abbas would accept Israel as the Jewish State – Palestinians rejected the idea

• Hamas and other movements planned attacks against Israel• USA asked Israel to extend the moratorium with 90 days

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Arab Spring and the New Middle East

• 2011. Al-Jazeera published the „Palestine Papers”: 1700 leaked secret files• January 2011: Avigdor Lieberman plan: Palestinian State on the 50 % of the

West Bank• May 2011. Obama speech on the Middle East: „two states for two people”

based on 1967 borders with land swap...• Egyptian uprising is negative for Israel and Fatah: spill-over effect – reshuffle

of goverment of Salim Fayyad and Abbas promised elections take place in September

• Turkish Diplomatic succes: efforts to further isolate Israel (Erdogan visit in the Arab World before UN General Assembly)

• Palmer-Uribe Report Freedom Flottilla – 2 September 2011: The Blockade is legitim, but the unnecessary use of force is illegal, condems Israel and criticized the aim of the Flottilla.

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Palestinian Reconciliation in 2011

• Fatah-Hamas negotiations Spring 2011 – an agreement was signed in May

• Form of a unity goverment until June and elections this year

• International condemnation

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The Palestinian UN bid

• Current status of Palestine: the PLO has an observers status (PLO: the sole legitim representative of the Palestinian people)

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State of Palestine: at what price ?

• UN SC formed a committee to discuss the bid• If the SC approves the General Assembly will

vote 2/3 majority – full membership• If the SC rejects the bid, than the General

Assembly can vote – simple majority (122 yes and 71 no expected): „non member observer state”

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State of Palestine – divided Palestinians

• Hamas opposed the UN bid• West Bank – the majority supports• September: 52,7 % supports the bid

and 59,3 % the necessity of Israeli-Palestinian direct negotiations (Palestinian Center for Public Opinion)

• What are the goals of the UN bid?1. Internal politics: isolation of Hamas

and strengthening the legitimacy of Abbas himself

2. Foreign Policy: change the rule of the negotiations (instead of bilateral, multilateral negotiations)

3. State of Palestine: occupied by Israel, agressor – breach the UN Charter – international pressure (eg. Israeli politicians at ICC)

4. Recognition of 1967 borders: Israel’s fait acomplit with the settlements and the Israeli wall/fence (recognition of Israel within the 1967 borders)

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Why Israel opposed the UN bid?• Breach of the Oslo

principles – threatens the result of the Oslo process (aid, the existence of the PA)

• Unilateral measure instead of bilateral direct negotiations

• The reality will not change on the ground

• Abbas does not recognize Israel as a Jewish State

• Netanyahu: the 1967 borders are irrealistic

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State of Palestine

Supporters• Among SC permanent

members:Russia and China +Non-permanentIndia, Brazil, South Africa (BRIC

countries)Etc.

Against• France, UK, USA, Germany• USA diplomatic pressure to

Abbas (Congress withheld a 200 millions USD aid package to the PA)

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Legal and political obstacles• Who represents the rigths of the Palestinian refugees?• How the Israeli Arabs see the UN bid?• Is it a repartition of Historical Palestine ? (1947 – Partition

of Palestine)• What is the consequence of the legal existence of a

Palestinian State? (UNESCO bid – heritage sites)• Does the Palestinian State exist? (territory, population,

authority, ability to form relations with other states – in statu nascendi?)

• 122 states (including Hungary) recognized the declaration of independence issued in Algir in 1988 by the PLO (Arafat)

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What comes next?

• USA: „the status quo is unsustainable”• Israel: preserve the „unsustainable status quo” • Negotiations? The Quartett has a session in

Brussels, but Israel announced to build 1100 new housing blocks. The Quartett new promise: establishment of a Palestinian State within a year (September 2012) through negotiations

• Palestinian elections, third intifada?

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