Perspectives from Agriculture and Land-Use

Sectors

The Paris Agreement

1

The Challenge

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2030 2050

Asia

Latin America

Africa

Europe

North America

Oceania

Food Production by Region 1972-2050(Constant 2004-06 US$)

Temperature trend, Asia, 1901-2012 (annual trend change in degrees Celsius over period)

Sources of emissions from agriculture

and land use in Asia(average values 2001-2011)

2,199

573

-186

45425

-700

-200

300

800

1,300

1,800

2,300

Crops &Livestock

Net ForestConversion

Forest BiomassFires

DegradedPeatlands

Millio

n to

nn

es

CO

2, A

ve

rag

e v

alu

es o

ve

r 20

01

-11

Food production needs to grow.. ..in the face of a changing climate.. ..while addressing GHG emissions.

Sources: California Environmental Associates, 2013 – based on FAO. 2012; IPCC, 2014; FAOSTAT, 2015

2

Traditional View: Mitigation and Adaptation

Mitigation is a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases

Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects.

– In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.

– In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.

3

Global Climate ChangeChange in mean global temperature, changes in

regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation, etc.

MitigationReduce

emissions &

magnitude of CC

AdaptationReduce

vulnerability to or

risk of CC

impacts & losses

Greenhouse

gas emissions

Climate Change

Impacts

Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Illustrative example

Source: IPCC, 2014Adapted from: UNDP

Key Lessons - Kyoto

• Dedicating significant negotiation resources on emissions reductions commitments and their legally binding nature was not efficient or effective

• Monitoring and reporting of commitments is essentialfor building trust among countries to enact policies and programmes to improve management

• Flexibility should be a key element of the adoption process and any future agreement

• Coverage must be expanded to have any possibility of curbing emissions

Source: Morel & Shishlov (2014)

In parallel - Moves to better integrate risks of &

responses to CC at a conceptual level

Schematic of the interaction among the physical climate system, exposure, and vulnerability producing risk

Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems

Source: IPCC (2014)

CLIMATESOCIOECONOMIC

PROCESSES

RISK

IMPACTS

EMISSIONS

And Land-use Change

Natural

Variability

Anthropogenic

Climate Change

Socioeconomic

Pathways

Adaptation and

Mitigation

Actions

Governance

Hazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

= (Probability of event) X

Consequences

The presence of people,

livelihoods, species or

ecosystems, etc. in places

and settings that could be

adversely affected.

The propensity or

predisposition to be

adversely affected

- encompasses a variety of

concepts including sensitivity

or susceptibility to harm and

lack of capacity to cope and

adapt.

The potential

occurrence of a

natural or human-

induced physical

event or trend or

physical impact that

may cause loss of

life, injury, or other

health impacts, as

well as damage and

loss to property,

ecosystems, etc.

Path toward a global agreement

COP21

Paris

Agreement

20152007

COP13

Bali Action Plan

for long-term

agreement post

Kyoto

2010

COP16

Cancun

Agreements

move away from

top-down

approach to

national pledges

COP15

Copenhagen

Accord &

adoption of 2

degree target

2009

COP17 Durban

Parties establish

plan for a

binding legal

agreement

2011

2013

COP19 Warsaw

Parties agree to

INDC and

transparency

rules

Time

COP20

Lima outcome

results in

adaptation gaining

equal footing with

mitigation

2014

COP11 Montreal

Costa Rica &

PNG

‘RED’ in

developing

countries

2005

UNFCC & Kyoto

• Common but

differentiated

responsibilities

• Focus on

mitigation

• Role of forestry

has grown over

time

• Agriculture largely

neglected

Paris Agreement – Overview

What is the Paris Agreement?

• An agreement by the 196 Parties to the UNFCCC to act limit the

increase in global average temperature to below 2°C

• Long-term commitment to balance emission sources and sinks

When will action start & finish?

• Commitment period commences in 2020

• Countries have identified actions up to 2025 and at least 2030

How will the Agreement be implemented?

• Agreement based upon Nationally Determined Contributions

(NDCs)

• Parties have agreed to be bound by an enhanced transparency

framework (ETF)

What is an enhanced transparency framework?

• Countries will be required to submit the following on a regular

basis:

1. A national inventory report of anthropogenic emissions

2. Information necessary to track progress implementing the

NDCs

Paris Agreement – Overview

2030

Road ahead for the Paris Agreement

2017

Review of

adaptation

under the

UNFCC

2020

Parties to

communicate NDC

and long-term

emissions strategies

and deadline for

achieving US100

billion financing goal

Facilitative dialogue

on INDCs,

discussion of

common modalities

for transparency

and IPCC report on

1.5 degrees

2018

First stock

take of

progress

2023

2025

Developed

countries to

review adequacy

of finance

Second stock

take of

progress

2028

Countries

invited to sign-

up and work

commences on

CBIT

2016

Paris Features

• Global (55 rule)

• Country driven

• Partially-binding

• Special long-term role

afforded to sinks

• Transparency key tool

for implementation

• Equal importance of

resilience and

adaptation

• NDC key planning document for future climate change adaptation and mitigation actions

• Warsaw Framework for REDD+ and results-based payments enshrined as part of the Agreement

• Experience with REDD+ and MRV means forest sector may have useful lessons for Transparency Framework

• Opportunities to highlight and foster non-carbon benefits for biodiversity, livelihoods and resilience among others

• Potential to access public and private finance to support NDC implementation

Implications for Agriculture and Land-use sectors

Paris and the Asia-Pacific Region

• Under the Paris Agreement

countries in Asia-Pacific have

signaled Agriculture (crops,

livestock, forestry, fisheries and

aquaculture) as a key concern

• Countries have identified 256

INDC priority actions for the

Agriculture sectors

• Action to address climate change

an “enabler” for SDGs

18 12 12 10 9 10 4 7 9 11 11 8 8 4 7 4 2 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 11

0 0 0

9

10 7

76

4

10

6

4

1

2 1

3 3

4

21

1 11

1 11 1

0 0 00

5

10

15

20

25

30

Adaptation Mitigation

Number of INDC actions for agriculture and land-use sectors in Asia-Pacific

(by country)

11Source: FAORAP, 2016

Share of INDC actions identified for the agriculture and

land use sectors in Asia-Pacific by type

(percentage - number in brackets)

Priorities for climate action in Agriculture

27 9 19 7 5 30 72

37

3

1212 6

1

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Forestry Fisheriesand

aquaculture

Crops Livestock Land Water Sector-wide

Number of INDC actions identified for agriculture and land-use sectors in Asia-

Pacific

(by broad agriculture sector)

66%

34%

(169)

(87)

Adaptation is the most pressing concern" ".and action is required across all agriculture sectors.

Sources: FAORAP, 2016

12

Relationship between INDCs and other UNFCC planning mechanisms

Illustrative example

NDC is not duplication

Adapted from: GIZ, 2015

UNFCCC

Commitment

Pledge

(INDC)

NDC Action

(NDC Implementation)

NAMA

REDD+

NAP

NAMA

REDD+

NAP

NAMA

REDD+

NAP

NAMA

REDD+

NAP

National Development and Climate Change PoliciesLong-term

strategy

Activity/Tool

2015 2016-2019 2020-2030

• NDCs rooted in

existing policy

frameworks

• NDCs will be guided by

and build upon existing

tools and activities

Implementation – Some unknowns

NDC implementation timeline – Escalating programming and reporting requirements(Illustrative example)

Existing

Programs

Scaled up

Programs

(sector and

geographical levels)

NDC Implementation

Activities

(whole sector and broad

geographical scope)

Project &Programme M&E Aggregated M&R ETF Progress Monitoring

Now 2020 2030

Priority

Activities

Progress

Monitoring

Source: FAORAP, 2016

• Scaling-up from project

level to national level

actions

• Meeting transparency

requirements for data

and verification

• Finance

• Increasing ambition

levels

Regional Workshop – “On the road to enhanced transparency for NDC Implementation”

Donor partners:

Organizing partners:

On the road to enhanced transparency for NDC

Implementation

Understanding Capacity Needs for the Paris Agreement Enhanced Transparency Framework in Agriculture

and Land Use sectors in Asia and the Pacific

Workshop

To strengthen country capacity to prepare for implementation and monitoring of

National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement by

identifying core technical and institutional capacity gaps and needs for national

inventory and monitoring systems for adaptation and mitigation actions in the

agriculture and land-use sectors

Workshop Objective

Forum Roadmap

Session 1

Unpacking the Paris Agreement

Session 2

Assessing Readiness for the Enhanced

Transparency Framework (ETF)

Session 3

Investigating the elements of the ETF

Session 4

Addressing Gaps and Needs for

Transparency

Session 5

On the road to enhanced transparency for

NDC implementation ?

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

1. Capacity building action plans for enhanced NDC transparency in the

agriculture, forestry and other land use sectors for countries in Asia and the

Pacific

2. A roadmap for enhanced NDC transparency in the agriculture, forestry and

other land use sectors for Asia and the Pacific

3. Summary brief

Target Outputs

Country status

GHG Monitoring and Reporting Systems

• Lack of human capacity for GHG inventory and data collection

• More technical guidance on the use of tools e.g. inventory tools linked to national reporting

• No sustainability in reporting NCs if based solely on consultants

• Already existing coordination in countries and institutional arrangements in place, but level of interactions and details in reporting and planning could be strengthened

Country status

Monitoring and Evaluation CC Adaptation Actions

• Lack of integration among line ministries

• Policy framework and political commitment are developing

• Better coordination and reporting from community CCA projects-based is needed if it is to be sustainable

• Low levels of extension support to farmers for the uptake of CCA practices and general lack of know-how

• Good coordination among Ministries on planning, but no proper M&E system yet and many different projects-based indicators

• Need for national climate scenarios (lack of modeling capacity)

ETF Elements - Transparency

• The enhanced transparency framework (ETF) is a key feature of the Paris

Agreement

• ETF requirements will reflect national contexts and capacities and will be

based upon existing UNFCCC reporting requirements

• Adaptation requirements are still largely unknown

• Capacity Building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT) is a new trust fund under

the Global Environment Facility (GEF) for countries to access support to

meet ETF requirements

• Countries are interested to mobilize this support to enhance transparency

ETF Elements – Monitoring and reporting Net

GHG Emissions

• Sustainable institutional arrangements are important

• Connecting inventory to the monitoring of mitigation policies could

open up opportunities to achieve other development goals

• Data collection and accuracy are an important concern – but need

to be enhanced gradually

• Several tools available to support counties

• Coordination for international support could be useful

• Mitigation/Adaptation co-benefits are of growing interest

ETF Elements - Adaptation

• Adaptation M&E will be a key issue for NDC transparency

• Adaptation M&E is characterized by a number of conceptual, institutional and operational challenges

• Identifying and agreeing upon indicators will be a key challenge for national adaptation M&E

• Need to balance the contextual and participatory benefits of project/community-based adaptation with the requirements for manageable national adaptation reporting systems

• The NDCs will provide countries with a solid foundation for strengthening adaptation M&E in agriculture and land-use sectors

ETF Elements - JMA

• Joint Mitigation-Adaptation actions aim to capture synergies and demonstrate additional potential benefits associated both mitigation and adaptation actions

• JMA is a relatively new concept and an opportunity for the region to capture benefits from action to address drivers and impacts of climate change

• NDCs already identify opportunities for synergy between mitigation and adaptation priorities

• A number of potential models exist for JMA from the region exist – but specific elements of JMA interventions will need to be better defined

• Monitoring JMA may present challenges

Regional Roadmap

Countries meet biennial reporting

requirements under the Paris Agreement

(PA) Enhanced Transparency

Framework (ETF)

Countries meet biennial reporting

requirements under the Paris Agreement

(PA) Enhanced Transparency

Framework (ETF)

Countries develop and implement PA

monitoring and reporting roadmaps

Countries develop and implement PA

monitoring and reporting roadmaps

CBIT and technical partners address country

capacity needs and gaps for the PA ETF

identified in country monitoring and reporting

roadmaps

CBIT and technical partners address country

capacity needs and gaps for the PA ETF

identified in country monitoring and reporting

roadmaps

Countries assess existing capacity to

meet biennial reporting requirements

under the PA ETF

Countries assess existing capacity to

meet biennial reporting requirements

under the PA ETF

Indicators

No. of assessments

Assumptions

Countries have not assessed existing capacity to meet biennial reporting requirements under the PA ETF

Indicators

• No. of proposals for support developed• Funding mobilized for roadmap activities

Assumptions

Countries do not have sufficient resources and technical capacity to address all gaps and needs

Indicators

• National inventory reports

• Biennial update reports• PA monitoring reports for mitigation and

adaptation

Assumptions

Countries are not currently meeting UNFCCC

reporting requirements to a satisfactory level

Indicators

• No. of roadmaps developed• Budget allocated to implement roadmap activities

Assumptions

Countries have not developed strategies to meet biennial reporting requirements under the PA ETF

Workshop Materials

All workshop materials can be accessed here:

http://faounfcccagworkshop.wix.com/etfforndcworkshop

Thank You

27