The political geography of climate change

KGA171 The Global Geography of ChangePresented by Associate Professor Elaine StratfordSemester 1

LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

Part 1

Revising Lecture 4.3

1. What is the greenhouse effect? How does this effect differ from that called the enhanced greenhouse effect?

2. Define ‘global warming potential’.3. With reference to carbon dioxide,

methane and nitrous oxide, name the main anthropogenic sources for each and give their global warming potential.

4. What is ozone and how does it work in the atmosphere?

5. Why was the depletion of ozone of such concern in the last decades of the twentieth century and what actions were taken to address the problem?

6. How is land use linked to climate change? Refer to modernization processes as part of your answer.

7. What is an urban heat island?8. How do animal husbandry, forestry and

energy production affect climate?9. Name several effects on the oceans

and climate of melting ice. Explain why these effects occur.

A Woman Thinking

Learning Objectives

Module 4 Lecture 4• be able to

– explain the basics of science around climate change as represented by the IPCC

– summarize certain political considerations implicated in climate change mitigation and adaptation

– elucidate three kinds of geographies arising from climate change

KGA171• demonstrate knowledge of

geographical concepts, earth and social systems and spatial patterns of change

• create and interpret basic maps, graphs and field data

• identify and analyse different viewpoints to contribute to debates about global development

• communicate in reflective and academic writing, referencing literature when needed

Textbook Reading Bergman and Renwick (2008) pp. 86-90 and 580-1)IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate

Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

United Nations Development Program (2007) Human Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting Climate Change: Human solidarity in a divided world

Critical reading1. What is the author’s purpose?2. What key questions or problems does the author raise?3. What information, data and evidence does the author

present?4. What key concepts does the author use to organize this

information, this evidence?5. What key conclusions is the author coming to? Are

those conclusions justified? 6. What are the author’s primary assumptions?7. What viewpoints is the author writing from?8. What are the implications of the author’s reasoning?[from Foundation for Critical Thinking]

Old Woman Reading a Lectionary , Gerard Dou

SCIENCE POLICY AND POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Part 2

Peter Bridgman and Glyn Davis (1998) The Australian Policy Handbook, Allen and Unwin, Sydney.

United Nations

United Nations Environment Programme

World Meteorological Organization

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

“… common but differentiated responsibilities …”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVGGgncVq-4&feature=player_embedded

+20% +40%-40% -20%

The Kyoto Protocol and Marrakesh Accords

“We are certain … emissions resulting from human activities … will enhance the greenhouse effect … The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.”

“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.”

“… new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the past 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal … very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/21/2797558.htm

World Health Organization (2003)

IPCC Scenarios

UNDP (2007) Human Development Report

THREE GLOBAL GEOGRAPHIESPart 3

The global geography of causes:industrialisation and development

United States Census Bureau (2004, p.11)

Population increase in the era of development

2000 – CO2 equivalent

www.wri.org/image/view/9529/_original

Causes by activity2000 data, C02 equivalent

Causes by country

INDUSTRIALISED COUNTRIES = 79%

German Advisory Council on Global Change (2008) Climate Change as a Security Risk, Earthscan, London, p.161.

The global geography of impactsRegions put at physical risk by unabated climate

change

Environmental impacts: sea level rise Average increase 1.8 mm/yr 1950-2000 or 9 cm

Sea level rise mm/yr, average 1955-2003IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007, p.412

Social impacts: conflict

Resource conflicts 1980-2005

Health impacts

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007, p.418.

The global geography of solutionsConstraints + Opportunities + Choices

- environmental- biological- technological- scientific- economic

- political- ethical- spiritual

- environmental- biological- technological- scientific- economic

Social vulnerability, resilience and capacity

Worldwatch Institute (2008) Vital Signs 2007-2008, WW Norton, New York, pp.37-39.

Solutions: alternative energy sources

59%world installations

India 4th, China 6th

Installations1st Germany

2nd Japan3rd US

A new scenario?

Halving emissions by 2050?

“protect the climate system …on the basis of equity and … common

but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.”

UNFCCC

80% cut developed countries 20% cut developing countries

UNDP (2007) Human Development Report 2007-2008, p.49.

A sustainable world?

Physical• buildings and

infrastructure• communications• energy systems• transportation

Financial• savings• credit • pensions and

remittances• welfare payments • grants and subsidies

Human• health, skills and

nutrition• education and

knowledge• access to

services

Social capital• relations of trust

and reciprocity• common rules

and norms• networks and

groups

Natural• natural resources-

food,water, wood/fibre

• ecosystems services-soil, fisheries, water, biological processes, wildlife habitat, waste assimilation

• beauty of nature-recreation/leisure, aesthetic value

Organizational• leadership• advocacy• training• advance and

strategic planning

• trust• capacity

building