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The Politics and Economics of International Energy (Spring 2009- E657). Lecture 10 About Nuclear Energy. Prof. Giacomo Luciani. The issue. Obviously, the political impact of nuclear is not the same as renewables and energy efficiency, nationally and internationally - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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© Copyright Giacomo Luciani
The Politics and Economics of International Energy
(Spring 2009- E657)
Lecture 10
About Nuclear Energy
Prof. Giacomo Luciani
The issue Obviously, the political impact of nuclear is
not the same as renewables and energy efficiency, nationally and internationally
A revival of nuclear energy raises the immediate threat of nuclear proliferation and possible use of WMD by governments as well as non-governmental actors
Hence nuclear energy will be an increasingly hot topic in international relations – hotter than it already is now
Main points to be discussed:
Current trends in nuclear energy uptake
Technological developments and issues
Nuclear energy for oil and gas exporting countries?
Non proliferation issues
No US players left?
Nuclear power Generation for Oil and Gas Producing Countries GCSP Geneva 4 July 07Helmut Warsch D-91341 Roettenbach Tel +49 9195 6751
10AREVA NP All rights are reserved, see liability notice.
Facts on ELECTRICITY
• Electricity is not a primary energy source but rather an energy carrier Practically all primary energy sources („clean“ or „dirty“) can be used for transformation into electricity
• Suitable for practically all applications (industry, traffic, housholds, ...) and for all purposes (drives, motion, heat, signal transmission, ...)
• Environmentally friendly and clean in use
• Easy to transport large amounts of electricity over long distances with speed of light
• No storage of large amounts of electricity possible, i.e. production necessary according to demand, in time and amount (equivalent to users). Therefore need of „backup“ power.
Nuclear power Generation for Oil and Gas Producing Countries GCSP Geneva 4 July 07Helmut Warsch D-91341 Roettenbach Tel +49 9195 6751
11AREVA NP All rights are reserved, see liability notice.
Typical Requirements for Different Power Plant Typical Requirements for Different Power Plant TypesTypes
Daytime
Peak load:Simple-cycle GTPP,Hydro storage plants
Base-load:Nuclear, Hydro Running Water, Coal Steam Plants
Intermediate-load:Combined Cycle PP,Coal Plants
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Daily cycling of units
Renewables replace base load units be-cause of feed-in obligations, but need backup PP’s for wind shortfall
Competition between gas and hard coal fired plants:High gas prices shift CCPP to lower load factors
Regulationload
High Start-up ReliabilityLow start-up EvaluationLoad Ramp
Best EfficiencyHigh availabilityLow Generation CostsShort Outage Period
Weighting of ProductRequirements:
FlexibilityPart Load Efficiency
Operational Flexibility: Increasing Challenges for Base Load Plants
Increase in must run renewable
Increasing minimum to Maximum load requirement shifts
Predictability (Weatherforecast)
Nuclear power Generation for Oil and Gas Producing Countries GCSP Geneva 4 July 07Helmut Warsch D-91341 Roettenbach Tel +49 9195 6751
12AREVA NP All rights are reserved, see liability notice.
Power Production Costs by Plant Power Production Costs by Plant TypesTypes
Specific Investment(EUR/kW)
1700
850
400
580
1750
Power Plant Type
Nuclear Power(1600 MW, 36%)
Hard Coal(700 MW, 45%)
Combined Cycle (Gas)(450 MW, 58%)
Combined Cycle /CO2 –Sequestr./Liquific.(380 MW, 50%)IGCC Coal /CO2 –Sequestr./Liquific.(630 MW, 43%)
8000
7000
7000
7000
7000
Average Annual Full Load Hours (h/a)
Production Costs (EURct/kWh) *)
3.4+
4.2+
4.3+
4.8+
0.8
1.9
3.4
3.1
1.8
Variable Share / Total Costs
IGCC Coal(700 MW, 47%) 7000 1300 3.9+ 1.6
1100Lignite(900 MW, 43%) 7000 3.2+1.5
3.5-
*) Variable costs include fuel costs and O&M costs, while total costs include additionally capital costs Production costs averaged over plant operation time (Nuclear 45 years, Coal 35 years, CCPP 25 years, IGCC 30 years) Financing conditions: in general share of loans 70 %, interest on loan 6%, interest on equity 12%, discount rate 8%; for Nuclear EPR Finland interest on loan 4.5%, interest on equity 8%, discount rate 6%) Fuel prices: Hard coal: 2.00 EUR/GJ, Natural gas: 5.50 EUR/GJ, Nuclear fuel: 0.70 EUR/GJ (no price escalations)
Nuclear power Generation for Oil and Gas Producing Countries GCSP Geneva 4 July 07Helmut Warsch D-91341 Roettenbach Tel +49 9195 6751
13AREVA NP All rights are reserved, see liability notice.
Power Production Costs of Renewables by Plant Power Production Costs of Renewables by Plant TypesTypes
*) Variable costs include fuel costs and O&M costs, while total costs include additionally capital costs Production costs averaged over plant operation time (Hydro 45 years, Wind power 25 years, Biomass/Geothermal 30 years, Photovoltaic 25 years) Financing conditions: share of loans 70 %, interest on loan 6%, interest on equity 12%, discount rate 8%, Fuel prices: Biomass 1.30 EUR/GJ
Specific Investment(EUR/kW)
1800
900
1500
2200
6000
Power Plant Type
Hydro (Reservoir)(400 MW)
Wind Power (Onshore)(1,5 MW)
Wind power (Offshore)(3 MW)
Geothermal(30 MW, 25%)
Photovoltaic(1 MW)
5000
1900
3600
5000
2400
Average Annual Full Load Hours (h/a)
Production Costs (EURct/kWh) *)
0.1
0.7
0.9
1.6
0.4
Variable Share / Total Costs
Biomass(30 MW, 38%) 4500 2700 1.7
1800Hydro (Running Water)(30 MW) 5000 0.1
5.2
6.6
6.0
6.9
40.0
8.0
7.0
Nuclear power Generation for Oil and Gas Producing Countries GCSP Geneva 4 July 07Helmut Warsch D-91341 Roettenbach Tel +49 9195 6751
14AREVA NP All rights are reserved, see liability notice.
Energy Landscape: Today & TomorrowEnergy Landscape: Today & Tomorrow
Attractiveness
(security of energy supply, energy policy, environmental compliance, social acceptance)
Co
sts
of
pro
du
ced
ele
ctri
city
[€
cen
t/kW
h]
2
3
4
5
6
7
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Gas CC
Coal SPP
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
IGCC
Conventional Wisdom is Changing
Today (2005 – 2007)
Tomorrow (2011 – 2015)
= 1 GW/a
Nuclear power Generation for Oil and Gas Producing Countries GCSP Geneva 4 July 07Helmut Warsch D-91341 Roettenbach Tel +49 9195 6751
15AREVA NP All rights are reserved, see liability notice.
Nuclear Reactor Generations
+Fusion?
1950 201019901970 2030 2050
EPR / SWR1000 +New Types
Early Prototype Reactors
CommercialPowerReactorsPWR, BWR, CANDU,VVER/RBMK
Reactors with further enhanced safety and increased competitive-ness: Advanced water cooled reactors,e. g. EPR, SWR 1000,ABWR, AP1000
Fusion
Generation IV
Generation III, Generation III+
Generation II
Generation I
FutureAdditional Reactorconcepts:e. g. HTR, FR
*
* incl.. modernization, power increase and life time extension
Nuclear power Generation for Oil and Gas Producing Countries GCSP Geneva 4 July 07Helmut Warsch D-91341 Roettenbach Tel +49 9195 6751
16AREVA NP All rights are reserved, see liability notice.
Reasons for fifth NPP in Finland
Electricity generation costs, including emissions trading
13,87,6 5,3
10,2 13,0
40,17,2
7,4
3,5
6,58,2
10,0
2,7 13,1 23,4
17,9
16,2 7,0
50,1
23,1
19,639,2
54,2
44,344,3
23,727,3
22,8
14,9
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Elspot2000
Finland
Elspot2001
Finland
Elspot2002
Finland
Nuclear Coal Gas Peat Wood Wind
Euro/MWh
Emissions tra-ding 20 €/t CO2
Fuel
Operation/Maintenance
Capital
Source: TVO
Operating hours 2200h/a
R.Tarjanne&K.Luostarinen 15.05.2003
operating hours 8000h/aReal interest rate 5,0%
prices may 2003
17
Natural Uranium & Thorium DISPOSAL
Scheme of Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Nuclear Energy for Oil and Gas Exporting countries
Simplistic line: they have oil and gas, why would they need nuclear?
Domestic oil and gas consumption is increasing rapidly, subtracting from exports
Gas availability is limited: Iran cannot export, Qatar imposed moratorium, S.Arabia has not enough for all industrial projects
Paradoxical decisions S. Arabia recently decided that all
new power plants will be oil fired, in order to save gas for industry
But that oil is subtracted from exports – besides being underpriced
Abu Dhabi is considering coal or nuclear
The GCC as a group is considering nuclear
Other countries
Egypt and Algeria have also launched nuclear programs
The trend is pretty universal Not just, and not primarily a response
to Iran’s ambiguities
Iran: a long story The nuclear program in Iran was initiated by
the Shah Attempts to deny Iran access to nuclear
energy are unfounded in international law and good sense
Iran’s pursuit of enrichment is not “rational” except as provocation
Iran: Is surrounded by nuclear powers (Russia, Pakistan,
Israel, the US in the Gulf) Suffered aggression and a very bloody war with
Iraq Has no external security guarantee