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The Post Rio+20 Agenda
Three Actions Bringing Global Benefits
Joseph Alcamo
Chief Scientist, UNEP
Action 1
Reduce short-lived climate pollutants
Slowing global warming and protecting public health
Joseph Alcamo
Chief Scientist, UNEP
What are short-lived climate pollutants?
Multiple benefits of reducing short-lived climate
pollutants:
• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce regional
impacts of climate change
• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops
Short-lived climate pollutants: Cause global warming &
relatively short-lived in the atmosphere.
Black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone,
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
• Particle filters for diesel vehicles
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production
(oil & gas production; coal mines)
• Waste / landfill management
A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce black
carbon + methane emissions and achieve multiple benefits
No technical breakthroughs.
These measures already implemented in many countries
Cost-effective
Three UNEP studies with scientific
community
1. “Near Term Climate Protection and Clean Air
Benefits”
2. “Global Assessment of Black Carbon and
Tropospheric Ozone”.
3. “HFCs: Critical Link in Protecting Climate and
the Ozone Layer
Emission reductions in 2030 (rel. to BAU) Methane : - 40% Black carbon : - 80%
How Achieve
Action against short-lived climate pollutants
slows down global warming
Slowing down near term global warming
How much?
16 measures reduce global warming 0.4 - 0.5 oC (2010 - 2050) relative to reference scenario almost halving temperature rise
Glacier lake outburst floods
Cannot substitute for CO2 reductions
Need both …
1. Reducing short-lived climate pollutants: slows down near-term global warming
2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection
Air pollution: unfinished business on the sustainable development agenda
• 3 billion people cook and heat using open fires and leaky stoves
burning biomass and coal.
• Around 2 million people die each year prematurely from illness
attributable to indoor air pollution
Source: WHO statistics
About 1.3 (3.7?) million premature deaths each year due to
outside air pollution.
Outdoor air pollution
Indoor air pollution
Progress towards global
environmental goals
(UNEP GEO-5)
“little or no progress”
“Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to have major
health impacts, particularly on women and children.”
“Some progress”
Despite some progress, outdoor air
pollution continues to have serious impacts
on the environment & human health.
Action against short lived climate pollutants
reduces air pollution & saves lives
East Asia + Pacific
750 thousand deaths/yr
1.9
S, W, & Central Asia
1.15 million deaths/yr
Reducing black carbon protects public health
Avoided premature mortalities (2030) from outdoor air pollution
Total lives saved globally = 2.4 million / year
Premature mortalities avoided in 2030 thousands/year
Africa
200
thousand deaths/yr
From UNEP (2011)
Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
• Particle filters for diesel vehicles
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production
(coal mines; gas distribution)
• Waste / landfill management
How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:
Low cost or no-cost Recovery of methane, better fuel efficiency
Climate and Clean Air Coalition
February, 2012: 6 countries + UNEP
End 2012: 27 countries (+EU) + 23 non-state partners
Political action now: the Coalition
Initiatives
1. Reducing Black Carbon Emissions from
Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles and Engines
2. Mitigating Black Carbon and Other Pollutants
from Brick Production
3. Mitigating SLCPs from the Municipal Solid
Waste Sector
4. Promoting HFC Alternative Technology and
Standards
5. Accelerating Methane and Black Carbon
Reductions from Oil and Natural Gas
Production
6. National Action Plans
Conclusion
Reducing short-lived climate pollutants ...
... An important opportunity to gain global climate
benefits and local public health protection
Action 2
Scale up early warning systems
Protecting people and complementing climate adaptations
Climate-related natural disasters
- Floods
- Droughts
- Wind storms
- Forest fires
- Heat waves
Impact of extreme climate events
How to cope with climate-extremes?
In 2008, over 20 million people displaced by sudden-onset climate-related disasters. (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs)
In 2009, 50 million people affected by extreme weather events (UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)
ISDR
Scale up early warning systems
“Plan C”
Source: FEWS Net
Source: AMMA Project
Plan A: Mitigate climate change through emission reductions.
Plan B: Adapt to climate change.
Plan C: Protect the population through early warning of climate extremes
Estimated food security conditions,
3rd Quarter 2012 (July-September)
FEWS NET USAID Food Early Warning
Alerts/Warnings about individual current hazards
GDACS Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System
Alerts about many different current hazards and disasters
National Hurricane Center Warnings about imminent hazards
Hurricane conditions 8 October, 2008 10:31 EDT
Source: National Hurricane Center
Many Current Early Warning Systems
Many early warning systems
• Most only deal with one aspect of climate-related risks or hazards, e.g. heat waves or drought.
• Most systems have large gaps in geographic coverage
• Most systems need improvement in how warnings are disseminated to users and how users respond.
• Most do not draw (fully) on knowledge from vulnerability research
• Most systems do not cover the entire early warning landscape from collection of meteorological data to delivery and response of users.
Some shortcomings of current systems
Many early warning systems
Worldwide climate early warning system
Objectives
1) Integrate fragmented warning systems (floods, famine, heat waves, wildfires …)
2) Integrate: climate predictions … with vulnerability studies …with preparedness planning
3) Provide actionable warnings on national/local level warnings directly translatable into action by local users “bridging the last mile”
Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)
Source: AMMA Project
Source: CIESIN
Now possible to scale up early warning systems
US National Weather Prediction Service
Precipitation forecast
(B = below normal)
Issued 16 Sept. 2010
Period of forecast: March-April-May 2011
District-level assessment of vulnerability to climate change. O’Brian et al. (2004)
• Steadily improving medium- term forecasting
• Global communication capabilities
• Ability to assess vulnerability throughout world on district-level
Feb-Mar-Apr 2011
Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)
Objective: Test out idea for end-to-end early warning system
CLIM-WARN – UNEP Early Warning Case Study
Meteorological network
Acquisition + processing of data
Vulnerable groups
Preparedness planning
Front End:
Back End:
Data/meteorology
Delivery & uptake
Delivery of warnings
Uptake of warnings
Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)
Case studies:
Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya
Plan A mitigate
Plan B adapt
Plan C protect
Scale up early warning systems:
End-to-end, multi-hazard, climate-related
early warning systems
Conclusion
Source: AMMA Project
Source: CIESIN
Action 3
Enhance global food security
… through sustainable consumption and production
World Food Summit (2009): Four pillars of food security:
Availability
Access
Utilization
Stability
Food security has many dimensions
But these four pillars have an ecological foundation
And we are undermining this foundation
Society is undermining the ecological foundation of the food system
Agriculture
Climate impacts changes in precipitation + warmer temperatures
Loss of biodiversity – on-farm, off-farm
Losing agricultural land to other uses: bionergy crops, urban expansion
Loss of land through degradation: 20% of cultivated area degrading
Fisheries
Fish: 10% total calories consumed, but 16% animal protein
Marine fisheries: 53% fully exploited; 32% overexploited (FAO)
Overfishing, habitat destruction (declining coral reefs),
habitat pollution (coastal dead zones), climate impacts
What to do about it?
Towards sustainable food systems:
1. Sustainable agriculture
Farm-level
Landscape
Global Mixed-use, Indonesia (Source: World Bank)
3. Sustainable consumption and supply chains
2. Sustainable fisheries
Marine protected areas
Reduce/remove “perverse” subsidies
Find alternative feed for aquaculture
• Assist smallholder farmers set up centralized produce storage, processing
b. Move towards a Sustainable Diet
3 kg grain = 1 kg meat; 1/3 crop area livestock
In developed countries:
• less meat
• more seasonal foods
What to do about it?
Towards sustainable food systems: 3. Sustainable consumption & supply chains
c. Reorient the Food Supply Chain
• Encourage standard-setting within the food industry
• Certify and label “sustainable production” through p/p partnerships
• Include smallholders in certification and labelling programs.
Consumer
Production to retail
Food Loss and Wastage (kg/person-yr) a. Reduce Food Loss and Wastage
• Public campaign to reduce food waste
• Re-examine food quality standards: Expiry dates?
Whole sys, eff
Conclusions on Food Security
Society undermining the ecological foundation of the world food system
But many options for sustainable food system + enhancing food security
- Not only sustainable agriculture, sustainable fisheries
- Also, sustainable consumption & production
Summing Up
1. Reducing short lived climate pollutants global climate
benefits + local public health protection
Three actions that bring global benefits
2. Scaling up early warning systems Protecting vulnerable
people worldwide against extreme climate events
3. Enhancing food security through sustainable consumption
and production Increase food security worldwide + protect the
ecological foundation of the food system.
The Post Rio+20 Agenda
Three Actions Bringing Global Benefits
Joseph Alcamo
Chief Scientist, UNEP
