The Potential of WiMAX

InternationalTelecommunicationUnion

The Potential of WiMAX:Short Trip to the Wireless World

Jaroslaw K. PonderFocal Point for Europe, a.i.

International Telecommunication UnionTelecommunication Development Bureau

Presentation

2

Short Trip to the Wireless World

Invest…

Business Models

Enabling Environment

WiMAX: New Revolution

Technology: Wireless Solutions

ICT Trends: Towards Mobility

3

3

Telecom Business drivers are: Wireless, Broadband & IP

ALLIPWireless Broadband

More than 3 Billion Mobile Phones in use Worldwide and growing

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

More than 350 Millions Broadband lines worldwide and growing

0

1

2

3

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Main (f ixed) telephonelines Mobile subscribers

Internet users

Subscribers switching from fixed to Mobile services.

4

4

Voice + BroadbandMigration to Wireless

Voice Still King

butNew Wireless Applications

Broadband DevicesMobile Internet AccessMobile Video – Entertainment

1. Next Generation MobilityWiMAX 802.16d here today for fixedEV-DO & HSDPA “arms war” in USWiMAX 802.16e, Rev C & LTE on horizon

2. Mobile Application Solutions - IMSVoice : Dual Mode with WiFi, Single UIVideo : Optimized delivery

Wireless Industry Dynamics

5

WiMAX: New Revolution

W orldwidei ntegrationM icrowaveA ccessX technologies

Initiative by 70 member companies amongwhich Alcatel, Airspan, Alvarion, Aperto, AT&T,BeamReach, Covad, Fujitsu, Intel, PCCW, Proxim, Redline, Siemens Mobile, SR Telecom, WiLAN, ZTE, ...

IEEE 802.15 -Bluetooth

WAN

MAN

LAN

PAN ETSI HiperPAN

IEEE 802.11 -WirelessLAN

ETSI HiperLAN

IEEE 802.16 -WirelessMAN

ETSI HiperMAN & HIPERACCESS

IEEE 802.20(proposed)

3GPP, EDGE (GSM)

IEEE 802.15 -Bluetooth

WAN

MAN

LAN

PAN ETSI HiperPAN

IEEE 802.11 -WirelessLAN

ETSI HiperLAN

IEEE 802.16 -WirelessMAN

ETSI HiperMAN & HIPERACCESS

IEEE 802.20(proposed)

3GPP, EDGE (GSM)

(WiMax)

(WiFi)

6

IEEE 802.16 - WiMAX

Cable replacement (xDSL, CATV) - WDSLPoint to Multipoint & Mesh Topologies

70Mbps at 50Km (in theory)15-20Mbps at 10 Km (in practice)

IEEE 802.16 WMANWMAN, (LOS) at 10-66GHzB(F)WA, NLOS at 2-11GHzIEEE 802.16-2004 –replaced IEEE 802.16RevDIEEE 802.16e-2005 (Mobility support)

WiMAX Forum: an industry-led, not-for-profit organization formed to certify and promote the compatibility and interoperability of broadband wireless products based upon the harmonized IEEE 802.16/ETSI HiperMAN standard.

Product Examples: Several WiMAXsolutions (Chipsets, Systems, PCMCIA cards, modems, etc). Early examples: the Rosedalechip-set (Intel), …

77

WiMAX Evolution: Application Scenarios

Source: Source: Siemens

8

WiMAX Network Topologies

Wi-Fi

P2P BackhaulP2P Backhaul

P2MP BackhaulP2MP Backhaul

WiWi--FiFi

WiMAXWiMAXCoverage Coverage

CellCell

WiMAXWiMAXCoverage Area Coverage Area

via Multiple via Multiple CellsCells

Fixed / Mobile Fixed / Mobile Access & BackhaulAccess & Backhaul

9

Diverse Wireless Technologies

Rev B note: N is the number of 1.25 MHz chunks of spectrum used. Not yet deployed.

0.151.81.8xN

2.453.14.9xN

CDMA/FDDMobile InternetCDMA2000EV-DO 1x Rev. 0EV-DO 1x Rev.AEV-DO Rev.B

Succeeded by EV-DO0.1440.144CDMAMobile phoneCDMA20001xRTT

Reported speeds according to IPWireless using 16QAM modulation similar to HSDPA+HSUPA

1616CDMA/TDDMobile InternetUMTS/3GSMUMTS-TDD

HSDPA widely deployed. Typical downlink rates today 1–2 Mbit/s, ~200 kbit/s uplink; HSPA+ downlink up to 42 Mbit/s.

0.3845.7611.5

0.38414.442

CDMA/FDD

CDMA/FDD/MIMO

Mobile InternetUMTS/3GSMUMTS W-CDMAHSDPA+HSUPAHSPA+

3GPP Release 70.91.9TDMA/FDDMobile InternetGSMEDGE Evolution

3–12 km6464HC-SDMA/TDD/MIMOMobile InternetiBurst 802.20iBurst

Mobile range (900 m)5050OFDMAMobile InternetWiBroWiBro

56.956.9OFDMMobile InternetHIPERMANHIPERMAN

Quoted speeds only achievable at very short ranges, more practically 10 Mbit/s at 10 km.

7070MIMO-SOFDMAMobile InternetWiMAX802.16e

LTE-Advanced update to offer over 1 Gbit/s speeds.

86.4326.4OFDMA/MIMO/SC-FDMAMobile InternetUMTS/4GSMLTE

NotesUplink (Mbit/s)

Downlink (Mbit/s)

Radio TechPrimary UseFamilyStandard

10

WiMAX

012345

Spectral efficiency

Global cost

CPE cost

Mobility

Security

Reach

Number ofsimultaneous subs

/ cell

Spectrum width

012345

Spectraleff iciency

Global cost

CPE cost

Mobility

Security

Reach

Number ofsimultaneous

subs / cell

Spectrum w idth

cc

WiFi

012345

Spectral eff iciency

Global cost

CPE cost

Mobility

Security

Reach

Number ofsimultaneous subs /

cell

Spectrum w idth

WiMAX Positioning

Broadband Wireless Access “on the move”Area coveragePowerful power controlNomadic

Voice, data & multimedia “on the full move”Nationwide coverageFull mobility

Hotspot coverage “on the pause”Low CPE costLower securityNo guaranteed bit rate (shared pipe)

Note: Comparative ranking with other technologies in performance per cell. Global cost per end user including spectrum fee. Source: Alcatel

11

WiMAX Keyword

The keyword for WiMAXsuccess story is not

combat with other wired or wireless and mobile technologies, but it is

integration or internetworking for

services provisioning over IP.

12

WiMAX cons and pros

ProsWiMAX has fixed version (WLL) and mobile versionIt has built-in centralized QoS supportOffers higher bit rates than 3G mobile networks and better mobility and QoS than WLANMobile WiMAX joined ITU IMT-2000 group of 3G standards in 2007WiMAX is targeting attractive frequency bandwidths (e.g. 700 MHz, 2.3 GHz, 2.5 GHz)

ConsMany “big” vendors from the mobile industry are not likely to go into WiMAX business near soonISP market is saturated in developed countries with xDSL and cable network access to Internet (nearly 90%)Mobile networks are strongly going towards GSM evolution (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3G-LTE, 4G etc.)

1313

What WiMAX Can Do for You?

14

Spectrum & StandardsServicesNetwork Model

802.16eLicensed 2.5 & 3.5

Fixed/ Portable Services +IP Voice, data & videoPortable & Mobile

802.16eLicensed 2.5 & 3.5802.16d backhaul

Fixed only services +Portable IP dataPortable VoIP

Vertical applications

Fixed Portable

802.16-2004Licensed 2.5 & 3.5

Unlicensed 5.8

DSL Fill-in & E1/T1 replacement:IP Data

TDM VoiceVoIP

Fixed last mile only

802.16-2004 backhaulUnlicensed 5.8IP Data

Metro & Government

Wi-Fi Hot zones

The Business Models

15

Worldwide BWA/WiMAX Deployments

Source: WiMAXCounts.com

16

CEE and Baltic States in Numbers 2007

17 countries including 10 EU members*Population (total)= 125.96MDensity= 81.68 per m2GDP per capita= 7578 USDBasic ICT Statistics

Total Telephone Subscr.= 155.5MFixed lines per 100= 28.7Mobile per 100= 106Effective teledencity= 99.41

Note: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria*, Croatia, Czech Rep.*, Estonia*, Hungary*, Latvia*, Lithuania*, Montenegro, Poland*, Romania*, Serbia, Slovak Rep.*, Slovenia*, TFYR Macedonia, Turkey

*

17

All Communication Means per 100 Inhab. in CEE and Baltic States, 2001-2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Cellular Subscribers per 100 Inhab.

Main Telephone Lines per 100 Ihab.

Broadband Subscribers per 100 Inhab.

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database

18

Mobile Subscribers per 100 Inhab. inCEE and Baltic States, 2001-2007

148.4144.9

129.6 128.4

112.6 110.5 110.0 108.7 107.3 106.7

96.3

85.7

74.5 73.4 72.1

62.3

94.188.5

60.9

105.6

79.4

64.2

86.4

59.9

78.0

47.1

93.3

69.3

48.5

67.2

39.436.4

45.5

29.2

19.6

67.9

39.9 40.1

48.8

25.9

17.2

73.7

17.311.1

27.9

12.7 11.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

EE LT BG CZ SK HR HU PL ME RO SI SP MK LV AL BA

2007

2004

2001

2007 Average: CEE & Baltic States: 106%

2007 Average: European Union: 111.8%


19

Main Telephone Lines per 100 Inhab. in CEE and Baltic States, 2001-2004-200758.9

42.840.1

37.1

32.430.4 30.1

28.3 27.3 27.1 27.124.6 23.6 22.7

21.320.1

11.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

ME SI HR EE HU SP BG CZ LV PL BA TR LT MK SK RO AL

2001 2004 2007

2007 Average: CEE & Baltic States: 29.7%


20

Broadband Subscribers per 100 Inhab. & Total Subscr. in CEE and Baltic States

20.8

17.2

16.015.1 15.0

7.6 7.5 7.4

3.3

2.2 2.2

0.3

10.4

5.8

0.3

4.1 3.7

0.5 0.51.5

2.1 2.1

0.8

4.3

8.28.4

9.9

5.8

0.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

EE SI CZ HU LT RO HR SK PL LV BG TR ME SP MK BA AL0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

200720042001BB Subscr. (000)

2007 Average in European Union: 20.0%

2007 Average: CEE & Baltic States: 8.89%

per 100 (000)

Total Number of BB Subscribers in CEE & Baltic States in 2007: 15.7 Mln


21

Incumbent's Broadband Market Sharein CEE and Baltic States, 2007

88.0

58.654.8 55.2

49.8 49.7

25.8

44.5 44.241.2

33.9

28.0

17.2

88.0

58.6 58.355.3

49.9 49.7 48.944.5 44.4

41.2

33.9

28.3

17.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CY PL SK EE SI LT EU HU LV MT CZ BG RO

Incubents no resaleIncubents + DSL resale

22

Broadband coverage across the EU –National Coverage versus Rural Areas

28.20%7.40%18.00%71.30%EU25 N/R N/R 99.00%0.00%MT

30.00%0.00%69.70%0.00%CY N/A N/A 36.20%29.50%SK

50.00%0.00%35.00%37.00%LV 49.40%2.10%25.00%58.00%LT 11.00%7.00%12.30%54.80%PL 72.00%0.00%12.00%77.00%HU 24.80%24.30%9.70%78.50%SI

Cable Rural Gap with National

Coverage

Cable Rural Coverage

DSL rural gap with national

coverage

DSL rural coverage

Source: EU Implementation Report / Idate Report 'Broadband Coverage in Europe' 2007

23

Costs Indications

Base station chasis – 5 000 USDNPU module – 10 000 USDRadio module – 7 500 USDPower supply adaptor – 1 000 USDPower module – 1 000 USD

Outdoor radio module (placed on roof, chimney etc.) – 3 000 USDAntenna (the higher placed the better it is) – 700 USD

Software – 6 000 USDDevice drivers – 2 000 USDMakro base station license – 2 000 USDCPE (receiver) licenses – 3 500 USD

Total – 41 700 USD

24

Tentative Forecasts for Broadband Access Technologies

Broadband Wireless This general term could refer to any of the high-speed wireless technologies currently available, such as 802.11a, 802.11b, or 802.11g for WLANs (WiFi), or the emerging 802.16 standards for WMANs(WiMAX) (source CNET)

Sources: Graph: ITU; Table: EU Implementation Report 2007

25

Case Studies: Poland/Netia

NetiaWIMAX network coverage: 30 percent and 40 per cent of the population78 base stations12,000 WiMAX subscribers

Revenues– WiMAX ARPU: Euro 40 per month– ADSL (offering both voice and broadband): Euro 30 per month.

Total broadband subscribers: 217,000Change of the strategy

ReasonsIntroduction of bit-stream access and local loop unbundlingEnd of 2007, Netia had nearly 100,000 broadband subscribers via TPSA's bitsteamservice (the Polish altnet started to offer commercial LLU products during Q1 2008); own fixed-line network, there were 111,000 broadband subscribers by the end of 2007.

New focus: poor service by TPSA or "insufficient coverage“little scope to offer bitstream or LLU Municipalities

– It is not commercially attractive for telcos to enter cities with less than 15,000 inhabitants– Poland: 650 cities with less than 20,000 people each (comprising a total of around 5 million

people)– The investment required may be subsidised by the EU by up to 80 percent– Additional frequencies available in the 3.5GHz, 3.6GHz and 3.8GHz frequency bands for local

municipalities

2626

Summary

WiMAX is a disruptive technologyFull IP standard radio access systemHigh broadband rates and low latencyIntegrated in fixed/portable terminals, or smart mobile devices

WiMAX offers new applications critical to achieving mass market penetration rates

Bridging rural digital divide with wirelessBroadband Internet everywhere

WiMAX Deployment is gaining worldwide momentum

InternationalTelecommunicationUnion

Thank you very much for your attention!

Jaroslaw K. PonderActing Focal Point for Europe

International Telecommunication UnionTelecommunication Development Bureau

<[email protected]>

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The Potential of WiMAX