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The Power of NSIP to Improve Profitability
November 21, 2015
Rusty Burgett, Program Director
NSIP to Increase Profits
• Our Mission:
– To provide predictable, economically important genetic evaluation information to the American sheep industry by converting performance records into relevant decision-making tools.
2
NSIP to Increase Profits
• Why do we need a profit driven genetic selection tool for U.S. sheep?
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Australian sheep inventory and lamb production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ewe Inventory
Lamb Production
Ind
ex o
f P
rod
uct
ion
(%
)
Source: ABARE 2014
Importance of Genetic Selection
11
• Need to produce more lamb and wool from a smaller national flock
– U.S. Sheep Industry Roadmap
– Productivity Improvement
• Wider adoption of Quantitative Genetic Selection
• Genetics are the foundation to build upon
Which Ram?
Value of a Ram
• Profit is determined by pounds of lamb sold per ewe.
– Number of lambs born
– Number of lambs weaned
– Birth, weaning and post weaning weight of lambs
Which Ram?
Importance of Genetic Selection
Phenotype = Genetics + Environment
15
~75% of what you see is due to the environment the ram was raised in
40% of growth and carcass traits are controlled by genetics
12% of Reproductive traits are controlled by genetics
Adjust for Variation
• Program will account for environmental differences (Birth type, heritability, feed…)
Phenotype = Genetics + Environment
19
Estimated Breeding Values
• EBVs are tools that:
– Minimize guesswork of ram selection
– Assign number values to genetic merit
– Allows for quick, easy comparison
– More powerful than actual performance data, adjusted means...
– Focused on economically important traits
20
How to Start
How do we Get EBVs?
• Similar to EPDs
• Measure Phenotypic traits of animal
– Body weights
– Carcass measurements
– Reproduction
– Wool Traits
22
How do we Get EBVs?
• Submit that data to NSIP
– Pedigree Master
– Stockbook
– Other software programs
23
Adjust for Variation
• Heritability = % of a trait that is controlled by genetics
• Weaning weight ~0.3 or 30% controlled by genetics
– WWT 65 X 0.3 = 19.5
– WWT 75 X 0.3 = 22.5
24
Adjust for Variation
• Program will account for environmental differences (Birth type, heritability, feed…)
Phenotype = Genetics + Environment
25
Analyze pedigrees
• Compare performance to all relatives
26
Analyze Pedigrees
• An individual’s performance is:
– Compared to its contemporaries
– Standardized for environment
– Compared to every known relative
• Including relatives in other flocks
• Adjust for genetic relationship (shared genes) and heritability of each trait
27
Interpreting EBVs
The Good News?
• You don’t have to worry about doing any genetic calculations!
– NSIP takes care of all the work
• Enrolled flocks just submit measures and EBVs are returned
29
What Traits are available?
• Weight:
– Birth
– Weaning
– Post Weaning
– Yearling/hogget
• Carcass:
– Eye muscle
– Fat depth
• Fleece:
– GFW
– Curvature CV
– Fiber Diameter
• Reproduction:
– NLB
– NLW
• Fecal Egg Count
30
What Traits are available?
• Production Index-
– Combines multiple traits into 1 figure
• USA Range
• USA Maternal
• Carcass Plus
• USA Hair
31
How to Start - Step 1
• Make a commitment to improvement
– Decision to lead the sheep industry in productivity improvement
• Develop a plan for genetic improvement
Structure for Genetic Improvement
• Seedstock and purebred producers enroll in NSIP
– Use EBVs to isolate genes for profitability
• Commercial Producers then use those genetics to efficiently and profitably produce lamb
Analyze Production
• Quantify current production level:
– Number of lambs born/ewe
– Number of lambs weaned/ewe
– Average weaning weight of lambs
– Average post weaning growth (ADG)
– Loin eye area and back fat thickness
NLB 1.2
NLW 0.8
WWT 62
GFW 8.5
Set Goals
• Establish a goal for improvement of each trait
• Prioritize importance of each goal for profit
Trait Current Goal Priority
NLB 1.2 2.0 2
NLW 0.8 2.0 1
WWT 62 68 3
GFW 6.5 8.5 4
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
• Choose rams that will produce daughters to meet our goals
• Priority 1.-select ram in top 10% of breed for that trait
• Priority 2.-select ram in top 20% of breed
• Priority 3.-select ram in top 25% of breed
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%
NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%
NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%
NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
• Once we have a highly productive ewe flock, we can cross breed with terminal sires selected for growth and carcass
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Not a Silver Bullet
• Visual appraisal of ram for:
– Sound feet and legs, free of foot rot
– Correct mouth structure
– Breeding soundness exam
– Health status and susceptibility
• Scrapie
• OPP
• Spider
Not a Silver Bullet
• Does not replace good management
– Breeding Program
• Including cross breeding!
– Nutrition
– Marketing
46
Does it Work?
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Lam
bs
Bo
rn E
BV
(%
)
Targhee Reproduction
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014We
anin
g an
d M
ate
rnal
W
ean
ing
We
igh
t EB
Vs
(lb
)
Targhee Growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Fle
ece
We
igh
t an
d F
ibe
r D
iam
ete
r EB
Vs
Targhee Wool
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
105.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA
Ran
ge E
BV
s ($
)
Western Range Index
47
Genetic Progress
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Lam
bs
Bo
rn a
nd
W
ean
ed
EB
Vs
Year
Polypay Reproduction
NLB (%)
NLW (%)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We
anin
g an
d M
ate
rnal
W
ean
ing
We
igh
t EB
Vs
Year
Polypay Growth
WW (lb)
MWW (lb)
48
14 extra lambs/100 ewes lambing!
1.75 pounds heavier @ 60 days=201 more lbs of lamb!
Genetic Progress
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We
anin
g an
d P
ost
we
anin
g W
eig
ht
EBV
s
Year
Suffolk Growth
WW (lb)
PWW (lb)
-0.0350
-0.0300
-0.0250
-0.0200
-0.0150
-0.0100
-0.0050
0.0000
0.0050
0.0100
0.0150
Eye
Mu
scle
an
d F
at D
ep
th E
BV
s
Year
Suffolk Carcass
EMD (in)
Fat (in)
49
Conclusion
• This method is designed to:
– Reduce risks associated with ram selection
– Expedite genetic progress
– Increase productivity
Visit www.nsip.org for more information including percentile and elite sire reports
Thank you!
• Questions?
• Paid for in part by the American Sheep Industry
Analyze Production
• Flock and Breed basis
• Quantify current production level:
– Number of lambs born/ewe
– Number of lambs weaned/ewe
– Average weaning weight of lambs
– Average post weaning growth (ADG)
– Fleece weight and quality characteristics
NLB 1.2
WWT 62
GFW 8.5
Trait Current Goal Priority
NLB 1.2 2.0 1
WWT 62 68 2
GFW 6.5 8.5 3
Set Goals
• Establish a goal for improvement of each trait
• Prioritize importance of each goal for profit
Develop a Breeding Plan
• Focused on genetic improvement for profitability
• Use EBVs to facilitate selection decisions
• Facilitate ease of data collection
– Contemporary group structure
• Consortium goals
Use EBVs in Selection
• Start with Production Indexes
– Combine multiple traits into one value
– Maternal-USA Maternal
– Terminal-Carcass Plus
– Range-USA Range
– Hair-USA Hair
– Select from top 40% of the index
Use EBVs in Selection
Use EBVs in Selection
http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf
Use EBVs in Selection
Use EBVs in Selection
• Select for individual traits
– Based on priority of goals
• Priority 1.-select ram in top 10% of breed for that trait
• Priority 2.-select ram in top 20% of breed
• Priority 3.-select ram in top 25% of breed
Use EBVs in Selection
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 2 Top 20%
GFW 6.5 8.5 3 Top 25%
http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 2 Top 20%
GFW 6.5 8.5 3 Top 25%
Use EBVs in Selection
http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf
Use EBVs in Selection
• Prioritizing selection pressure on individual traits will expedite genetic progress
• Priority should be placed on economically important traits
“Common Sense Traits”
• Visual appraisal of ram for:
– Sound feet and legs, free of foot rot
– Correct mouth structure
– Breeding soundness exam
– Health status and susceptibility
• Scrapie
• OPP
• Spider
Not a Silver Bullet
• Does not replace good management
– Breeding Program
• Including cross breeding!
– Nutrition
– Marketing
68
Does it Work?
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Lam
bs
Bo
rn E
BV
(%
)
Targhee Reproduction
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014We
anin
g an
d M
ate
rnal
W
ean
ing
We
igh
t EB
Vs
(lb
)
Targhee Growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Fle
ece
We
igh
t an
d F
ibe
r D
iam
ete
r EB
Vs
Targhee Wool
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
105.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA
Ran
ge E
BV
s ($
)
Western Range Index
69
Genetic Progress
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Lam
bs
Bo
rn a
nd
W
ean
ed
EB
Vs
Year
Polypay Reproduction
NLB (%)
NLW (%)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We
anin
g an
d M
ate
rnal
W
ean
ing
We
igh
t EB
Vs
Year
Polypay Growth
WW (lb)
MWW (lb)
70
14 extra lambs/100 ewes lambing!
1.75 pounds heavier @ 60 days=201 more lbs of lamb!
Genetic Progress
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
We
anin
g an
d P
ost
we
anin
g W
eig
ht
EBV
s
Year
Suffolk Growth
WW (lb)
PWW (lb)
-0.0350
-0.0300
-0.0250
-0.0200
-0.0150
-0.0100
-0.0050
0.0000
0.0050
0.0100
0.0150
Eye
Mu
scle
an
d F
at D
ep
th E
BV
s
Year
Suffolk Carcass
EMD (in)
Fat (in)
71
Conclusion
• This method is designed to:
– Reduce risks associated with ram selection
– Expedite genetic progress
– Increase productivity
Visit www.nsip.org for more information including percentile and elite sire reports
Thank you!
• Questions?
• Paid for in part by the American Sheep Industry
Step 3. Use EBVs in Selection
Trait Current Goal Priority Percentile
NLB 1.2 2.0 2 Top 20%
NLW 0.8 2.0 1 Top 10%
WWT 62 68 3 Top 25%
http://nsip.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/62-Percentiles.pdf
