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Estimating Crowdsourced, Authoritative Observer,and Data Reputation

Brian R. Calder and Shannon HoyCenter for Coastal and Ocean Mapping and NOAA/UNH Joint Hydrographic CenterUniversity of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824 USA

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The problem is assessingCREDIBILITY with this CSB stuff“ ”Pete Wills, CHS Pacific

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Rank Name Rating Games1 Carlsen, Magnus 2862 132 Caruana, Fabiano 2842 133 Ding, Liren 2805 04 Grischuk, Alexander 2777 05 Nepomniachtchi, Ian 2774 06 Aronian, Levon 2773 07 So, Wesley 2770 138 Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar 2770 09 Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2770 010 Radjabov, Teimour 2765 0

“The Chess Players”, Thomas Eakins, Met. Museum of Art

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Rank Name Rating Games1 Carlsen, Magnus 2862 132 Caruana, Fabiano 2842 133 Ding, Liren 2805 04 Grischuk, Alexander 2777 05 Nepomniachtchi, Ian 2774 06 Aronian, Levon 2773 07 So, Wesley 2770 138 Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar 2770 09 Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2770 010 Radjabov, Teimour 2765 0

“The Chess Players”, Thomas Eakins, Met. Museum of Art

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You(1500, 350)

Magnus Carlsen(2862, 30)

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You(1500, 350)

Magnus Carlsen(2862, 30)

Ranking Uncertainty

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You(1500, 350)

Magnus Carlsen(2862, 30)

You(1209, 143)

FiveLosses

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You(1500, 350)

Magnus Carlsen(2862, 30)

You(1209, 143)

FiveLosses

You(1500, 350)

Magnus Carlsen(2862, 30)

You(1791, 143)

FiveWins

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You(1500, 350)

Magnus Carlsen(2862, 30)

You(1209, 143)

FiveLosses

Case 1: Unknown Observer thatdoes not match reference depth.

You(1500, 350)

Magnus Carlsen(2862, 30)

You(1791, 143)

FiveWins

Case 2: Unknown Observer thatdoes match reference depth.

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Summary

• All observers have a reputation: reputation is a spectrum• Reputation can be measured against authoritative data• Reputation is a time-varying quantity• “Authoritative” means high reputation & low uncertainty• Data inherits the reputation of the observer, then adjusts with

comparisons• Reputation uncertainty grows with time without observations• Data with low reputation is prime for supersession

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Brian R. Calder (brc@ccom.unh.edu, +1-603-862-0526)Research Professor & Associate DirectorShannon Hoy (shoy@ccom.unh.edu)Graduate Research Assistant

Center for Coastal and Ocean Mapping & NOAA-UNH Joint Hydrographic CenterChase Ocean Engineering Lab, University of New Hampshire24 Colovos RoadDurham, NH 03824USA

Sponsored by NOAA Grant NA15NOS4000200

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