The Promise and Challenge of Water Security in a Changing World

John Briscoe

Johns Hopkins University,

March 2013

(and how great universities can engage)

My remarks

1. Some basic facts (and perceptions)

2. What do we mean by water security and what can be done to increase security?

3. How can a great university engage?

• 89% of people have access to an “improved source”

• Population has increased by 217,000 every day over the last 20 years

• 281,000 additional people got access every day over last 20 years

96% have access

81% have access

Main

driver?

The

dramatic

decline in

global

poverty

Water Resources Management

Water supply & sanitation

Irrigation & drainage

Energy

Environ- mental

services

Infrastructure for management of

floods and droughts, multipurpose storage,

water quality and source protection

Institutional framework

Management instruments

Political economy of water management

Other uses including

industry and navigation

Source: Global Water Partnership

National Security (2012)

Business Leaders

(WEF 2012)

Likelihood

Impact

Citizens (Source, Globescan 2013)

Bottom line on where we are

• Still work to be done on drinking water (and more on sanitation), but remarkable and continuing progress

….but • The issue that keeps far-sighted leaders awake at

night has to do with: – How to construct and maintain the “water platform”

for economic growth – How to ensure “water security” in the face of large

and growing variability – How to sustain the resource base.

My remarks

1. Some basic facts (and perceptions)

2. What do we mean by water security and what do societies do to increase security?

3. How can a great university engage?

Probability of flow

Flow

Type B risks: Probability of

floods

Type A risks: Probability of

droughts

Societies face two types of water risk…

Some parts of the world have benign hydrology and others malign hydrology…

Rainfall Variability and GDP

Mean Annual Rainfall (cm)

Monthly Rainfall Variability (coefficient of variation)

Bubble Size = GDP per capita

(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)

Source: Brown and Lall 2007

Rainfall Variability and GDP

Mean Annual Rainfall

Monthly Rainfall Variability

Bubble Size = GDP per capita

(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)

Wealthy nations share a small

window of favorable climate

(low variability; moderate rainfall)

Rainfall Variability and GDP

Mean Annual Rainfall

Monthly Rainfall Variability

Bubble Size = GDP per capita

(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)

Developing countries face more

challenging climate conditions High variability

High mean

Level of Risk Level of

Development

Link 1: Risk affects development

How countries depended on “benign hydrology” to develop: 19th century New England

An easily-mobilizable “water platform” (for energy, transport, factories and people)

Secure, low-cost navigation

changed the history of the US

(and Europe)

But the quest for water security is a two-way street

Link 2: Development affects risk

Level of Risk Level of

Development

Link 1: Risk affects development

A country with a

growing economy

could invest to make parts with malign hydrology

productive….

But what about poor countries, many of which face benign hydrology?

Hydropower in different regions

Poor countries want to do what the rich did, and build infrastructure for security and water-enabled growth

Developing countries, with shallow domestic capital markets need help to finance their water infrastructure …

• Historically the World Bank, the US and other rich countries helped, but…

• Rich people who have a lot of dams (remember 1000 days of storage on Colorado?) don’t like dams any more…

• And oppose dams even in quite different circumstances (e.g. Pakistan which has 30 days of storage on the Indus…)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

90-92 93-95 96-98 99-01 02-04

World Bank lending for hydropower in US$ millions

..rich countries have a lot of say at aid institutions like the World Bank…

But the world is changing..

The Middle Income Countries (India, Brazil and especially China) are filling the gap left by rich countries who used to help….

Whereas the World Bank now finances about 5 dams, the Chinese finance over 300 outside of China in the

developing world

What societies do to reduce risk ….

Infrastructure Institutions

Some examples from the countries where the Harvard Water Security Initiative works

1. By reducing vulnerability to drought

INSTITUTIONS affect water security

In the 1980s – unrelated to climate change – Australia made major economic reforms, including in the water

sector

Water trading in the MDB

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

ML

MDB allocation trades MDB entitlement trades

Trading price soared from 10 to 80 cents a cubic meter.

The water trading system means that water moves – from willing sellers to willing buyers -- from low-value to high-value crops…

The water trading system means that water moves – from willing sellers to willing buyers -- from low-value to high-value crops…

National Water Commission 2010. The impacts of water trading in the Southern Murray Darling Basin. Data for Murrumbidgee

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8

% of entitlement delivered

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8

Rice

The water trading system means that water moves – from willing sellers to willing buyers -- from low-value to high-value crops…

National Water Commission 2010. The impacts of water trading in the Southern Murray Darling Basin. Data for Murrumbidgee

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8

% of entitlement delivered

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8

Citrus

Vines

10514

3142

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

What actually happened?

Source: Natl Water Commission

Little impact on GVA in agriculture

GL water

$ millions GVA

But water management is a dialectic process….

“the state of art (of water management) is always provisional…”

Re-balancing human

uses and

environmental needs

69

Because water has become so valuable and there are strong incentives for

efficient allocation and use….

A massive “pull” for new knowledge and technologies

• For short- and long-term prediction

• For risk-based decision-support systems

• For ecologic knowledge

• For precision water application technologies

• Strong partnerships with universities

1. By reducing vulnerability to drought

2. By reducing vulnerability to floods

INSTITUTIONS affect water security

The Mississippi River

The historic 1927 flood

Anarchic management

and terrible economic

and social devastation

The main lesson:

► In a major flood the river

can not be constrained

by levees

► Have to “make room for

the river” A broad participatory

process

Designates floodwaters

and backwater areas

Compensation

BUILDING STRONG®

The

Mississippi

Rivers and

Tributaries

Program:

Build levies

but also

Planned

Floodways

and

Backwater

Areas

BUILDING STRONG®

The great test of 2011: Peak flows (cusecs) similar to 1927

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

Cairo IL Helena AR Arkansas

City AR

Vicksburg

MS

Red River

Landing LA

New

Orleans LA

1927 2011

BUILDING STRONG®

Flooded

Areas 1927 Flood

vs

2011 Flood

• “Extra” water on

designated backwaters

and floodways

• Process orderly and

consensual

• Flooded area 60% less

in 2011

But water management is a dialectic process….

“the state of art (of water management) is always provisional…”

79

BUILDING STRONG®

Aging Water Resources Infrastructure

• Half of Locks 50+ Years Old

• Average Age 62 Years Old

Crumbling lock wall, Lower

Monongahela L&D 3, opened 1907

Concrete

deterioration at

Chickamauga

Lock and Dam

Project, Tenn.

Leaking

Miter Gates,

Upper Miss

Lock 19

80

BUILDING STRONG®

Inland Waterway Navigation System

The Mississippi faces great challenges

1. Maintaining the infrastructure

Acceptable Risk

Cost

Low

High Low

High

If the Federal Government pays…..

If affected people pay

?

?

1. Maintaining the infrastructure

2. Maintaining the coastal zone

1. Maintaining the infrastructure

2. Maintaining the coastal zone

3. Hypoxia in the gulf

1. Exogenous “natural” threats

Not all threats are from “within”

Climate Change:

What happens in the Himalayas obviously

hugely important for Pakistan

Glacial+snow melt

in river flow %

On the one hand….

• Section 10.6.2 states, “the

likelihood of [the Himalayan

Glaciers] disappearing by

the year 2035 and perhaps

sooner is very high if the

Earth keeps warming at the

current rate.

On the other hand, recent GRACE estimates….

The high mountains of Asia show a mass loss of only 4 ± 20 Gt yr−1 for 2003–2010, compared with 47–55 Gt yr−1 in previously published estimates

BOTTOM LINE: A huge need

• For disinterested science

• For a focus on managing variability more

effectively:

– starting with “known variability” and

– employing both infrastructure and institutions

to enhance robustness

• Glacial retreat is unlikely to cause significant changes in water availability over the next several decades

• Other factors, including groundwater depletion and increasing human water use could have a greater impact

1. Exogenous “natural” threats

2. Exogenous “human-driven” threats

Not all threats are from “within”

I n d i a

P a k i s t a n

Growing disputes….

Salal 700 mw

Sawal Kot 1200 mw

Baglihar 450 (+ 450) mw

Dul Haste 390 (+ 390) mw

Bursar 1000 mw

Pakuldul 1000 mw

Complete

Under construction

In planning

After Wolf

…260 “river” basins shared by 2+ nations

…the specter of water wars, between countries….

The overlap between water scarcity and the RNSSC members…

Some ways in which to conceptualize the challenge of risk management

1. What level of risk does a society want to face?

2. How to make sure that actions to deal with risk are Pareto efficient?

What risk does a society want to face?

Risk

Low

High

High Low

Cost

A poor country

A rich country

A nice example of the emerging switch to a risk management approach

Combining different assets into portfolios can reduce risk.

Standard Deviation of a Two-Asset Portfolio

))()()()((2)()()()( ,

2222

BABABABBAAp wwww

Risk of Asset A

adjusted for weight

in the portfolio

Risk of Asset B

adjusted for weight

in the portfolio

Factor to take into account

the correlation among the

assets.

Source: Kidson et al. 2009

If surface supplies from reservoirs are the backbone of most urban water supplies, what are the promising

(and not promising) additions to a portfolio?

• Low reliability and positively correlated and therefore not promising: – Rainwater harvesting – Roof catchments

• High reliability and not correlated and therefore promising: – Desalination – Wastewater re-use

• Moderate reliability and negatively correlated and therefore very promising: – Purchases from farmers (who are willing to release water

when prices are high, in droughts)

My remarks

1. Some basic facts (and perceptions)

2. What do we mean by water security and what do societies do to increase security?

3. How can a great university engage?

What can a great university bring to the table on water security

• Broad, integrating knowledge

“ We have

– God-like technologies

– Medieval institutions

– Paleolithic emotions…”

An example of Harvard in practice: The Water Security Initiative/Harvard Law

School Water Federalism Project

• 5 “basin teams” of 6 students each

• Range of disciplines:

– Lawyers, Engineers, Chemists, Epidemiologists, Economists, Policy majors, Biologists

• Range of levels:

– College to post-doc

• Worked with “thinking practitioners” in the basins…

The products? • A common framework for examining challenges and

responses (both hard and soft) • Documenting experience and insights of “thinking

practitioners” • Sharing lessons: What, for example, can the Indus

River System Authority learn: • About managing scarcity from Australia? • About managing excess from the Mississippi? • About managing conflict from the Sao Francisco?

• Creating a new generation of “specialized integrators” • The set of student papers to be published as a special

edition of Water Policy • 18 of the 30 students engaged are doing theses (in

engineering, law, economic, policy, public health) on water

With Australia • A strong partnership with the University of Melbourne, the

National Water Commission and Murray Darling Basin Authority • Students and post-docs working on:

– The Federalism Project – The “Australian Water Project” on the next generation of reforms

(with Committee for Economic Development of Australia) – A comparative study of how environmental flows are managed in the

Murray Darling and Colorado river basins (with the MDBA) – How the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder can manage a

portfolio of water assets (leases and purchases) – The role of wastewater re-use as an option for cities – A portfolio management approach to risk mitigation in Melbourne – Impacts of water trading on third parties and consequences for policy

With the Mississippi River Commission

• Students working on:

– The Water Federalism Project

– Study tour by Harvard and University of Sao Paulo engineering undergrads

– Using the hydraulic and GIS tools developed in the Mississippi for the Indus

– Exploring a new risk/cost equilibrium in the Mississippi in an era of fiscal constraints

With Pakistan

• Students working on: – The Water Federalism Project

– The historial evolution of legal instruments for managing water

– The application of a modern conflict resolution framework to the Indus Water Accord

– Using the hydraulic and GIS tools developed in the Mississippi for the Indus

– A portfolio management approach for risk management in Lahore

With Brazil

• Students working on: – A joint project with the Biology Department and

the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro using linked climate change and vegetation models. Examining the impact of climate change and deforestation on precipitation and streamflow and therefore on the planning and operation of hydropower in the Parana and Tapajos basins

– How an interbasin transfer can enhance water security in Ceara

Planning a similar – multi-student, multi-discipline – project with the HBS on “the business of water”

• How do businesses mitigate water risk?

• How can governments use businesses to help improve legal, regulatory and management capacity?

Overall

• An integrated approach to water is a challenge to universities organized in disciplinary silos….

• Great cooperation from agencies who are grappling with these issues

• Enormous interest from students at all levels

• A great opportunity….