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The Pursuit of Happiness

Alberto Gallo, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Algebris Macro Credit Fund (UCITS), Head of Macro Strategies

King’s College

January 2018

How the American Dream Turned into Greed and Inequality

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This document is issued by Algebris (UK) Limited. It is for private circulation only. The information contained in this document is

strictly confidential and is only for the use of the person to whom it is sent. The information contained herein may not be

reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without the prior written consent of Algebris (UK) Limited.

Algebris (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. The information and opinions

contained in this document are for background purposes only, do not purport to be full or complete and do not constitute

investment advice. Algebris (UK) Limited is not hereby arranging or agreeing to arrange any transaction in any investment

whatsoever or otherwise undertaking any activity requiring authorisation under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.

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any investment nor shall it or the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract therefore.

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applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

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Happiness (1776-1950)

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Happiness

Thomas Jefferson, U.S. Constitution, 1776

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that

all men are created equal, that they are

endowed by their Creator with certain

unalienable Rights, that among these are

Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

Jean-Jacques Rosseau, The Social

Contract and Discourses, 1762

“Why should we build our happiness on the

opinions of others, when we can find it in our

own hearts?”

Aristotle, The Nicomachean Ethics, 350 BC

“He is happy who lives in accordance with

complete virtue and is sufficiently equipped

with external goods, not for some chance

period but throughout a complete life.”

Dante, Divine Comedy, Inferno XXVI,1320

“Consider your origin: you were not made to

live like brutes, but to follow virtue and

knowledge”

John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, 1689

“The necessity of pursuing happiness [is] the foundation of liberty. As therefore the highest

perfection of intellectual nature lies in a careful and constant pursuit of true and solid

happiness; so the care of ourselves, that we mistake not imaginary for real happiness, is the

necessary foundation of our liberty. The stronger ties we have to an unalterable pursuit of

happiness in general, which is our greatest good, and which, as such, our desires always

follow, the more are we free from any necessary determination of our will to any particular

action.”

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Happiness

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. FRED.

Note: Inflation adjusted.

Household Income, Returning to 20 Year-Highs.

Real Median Household Income in the United States, $

45,000

49,000

53,000

57,000

61,000

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

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Page 6

GDP, Corporate Profits, Wages

Happiness

Corporate profits have risen, not wages

US corporate profit and wages, as a % of GDP

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, FRED

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

40%

43%

46%

49%

52%

55%

1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017

Wages, as a % of GDP Corporate profit before tax, % GDP (RHS)

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Rising Inequality

Happiness

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, World Wealth and Income Debate

The top 1%: an ever increasing share of total income

% of total income for the top 1% of earners

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1886 1902 1918 1934 1950 1966 1982 1998 2014

Hundre

ds

United Kingdom United States Germany Japan

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Page 8

Happiness

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. Corak 2016; and IMF Fiscal Monitor (October 2017).

Note: Gini coefficients are as of 2015 or the most recent year available. Intergenerational income elasticity is defined as the percentage change in earnings of a child's generation associated with the percentage change in the parent's generation.

Data labels in the figure use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.

Inequality and Lack of Social Mobility go Hand-in-hand

Gini coefficient

Inte

rgenera

tional in

com

e e

lasticity

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Happiness

Source: R. Chetty, D. Grusky, M. Hell, N. Hendren, R. Manduca and J. Narang – “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940”, Science Magazine, April 2017.

Income percentile born into

Chance to make more money than your parents

Social Mobility, from Baby Boomers to Millennials

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Page 10

Happiness

NA

$8.21

$47,442

$163,3344

$7,520

% of Housing Ownership1

U.S. Federal Minimum Wage

Avg. Graduate Starting Salary2

Average House Price3

Avg. University Tuition5

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. U.S. Census Bureau. FRED. National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department for Education. National Association of Colleges and Employers.

Note: Data as of 1960 for Baby Boomers, 1980 for Generation X and latest available for Millennials. 1 For under-35 year olds in the United States. 2 For Bachelor Degree Graduates, as of 2016 for Millenials.

3 Average Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States. 4 As of 1963. 5 Includes tuition and fees in a public, degree granting 4-year university. Does not include room or board. As of 1965 for Baby Boomers.

35.6%

$7.25

$50,556

$375,700

$35,112

From Baby Boomers to Millennials

BOOMER GENERATION X MILLENNIAL

43.8%

$9.76

$51,047

$239,484

$9,056

All $ data is inflation-adjusted

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Page 11

Dreams (1950-1980)

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John M. Keynes

“Capitalism is the astounding

belief that the most wickedest

of men will do the most

wickedest of things for the

greatest good of everyone.”

Dreams

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.

Capitalism in the XXth century & Post World War II

Industrialisation

Great Depression

World War II

Reconstruction

Marshall Plan

Economics

Society

Policy

Milton Friedman

“A society that puts equality

before freedom will get

neither. A society that puts

freedom before equality will

get a high degree of both.”

Bretton Woods

Managed capitalism

Industrialization

Stagflation

8

Elvis Presley

“Ambition is a

dream with a

V8 engine”

Creedence Clearwater Revival

“Some folks inherit star spangled eyes

Ooh, they send you down to war, Lord

And when you ask them, "How much

should we give?“ Ooh, they only

answer More! more! more! y'all”

Martin Luther King, Jr.

"We must learn to live

together as brothers or

perish together as

fools."

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Dreams

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.

Late XXth century: Debt-based democracies

Alan Greenspan

“Ayn Rand and I remained close

until she died in 1982 […] I was

intellectually limited until I met

her.”

Bretton Woods

Breaks Down

Nixon Shock

Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae

Sallie Mae

Ayn Rand

“I refuse to apologize for my

ability – I refuse to apologize for

my success – I refuse to

apologize for my money. If this is

evil, make the most of it.”

Gordon Gekko

“Greed, for the lack

of a better word, is

good.”

Shareholder Capitalism >

Stakeholders Capitalism

Laissez-faire & De-regulation

“Trickle Down Economics”

Ronald Reagan

“(…) societies that have achieved the most

spectacular, broad-based progress are

neither the most tightly controlled, (…).

No, what unites them all is their willingness

to believe in the magic of the marketplace.”

9

Economics

Society

Policy

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Central Banks,

Masters of the Universe

14

DreamsThe XXIst Century and Beyond

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.

Future of

Capitalism

E-money

Greenspan put

WTO founding

Introduction of

the Euro

QE Debasement

Market Bubbles

Inequality stress

Alan Greenspan

“Debt servicing is

unlikely to become

destabilizing.”

Thomas Piketty

“When the rate of return on capital

exceeds the rate of growth of output

and income, (…) capitalism (…)

generates arbitrary and unsustainable

inequalities (…).”

Financial Crisis

Saved by QEUniversal Basic

Income

Bail-inable debt

“QE for the people”

Protectionism

Debt cancellation

?Economics

Society

Policy

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Greed (1980-2008)

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Financial

crisis & QE

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017

US GDP

US total credit

Europe total credit

UK total credit

China total credit

16

Dreams

Source: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bloomberg, FRED, PBoC. Private credit calculated as the sum of household loans, corporate loans and bonds and bank debt

Total Private Credit in US$ Trillion (lhs)

Bretton Woods

breaks downFreddie Mac created

Right to buy

Reserve

requirement

abolished (UK)

First Fannie

Mae MBS

Big Bang

(UK)

Glass-Steagall

Act repealed

Privatisation of Fannie Mae346%

GDP

261%

385%

The Debt Supercycle: from Fiat Money to Fiat Credit

283%

The EuroHelp to

Buy (UK)

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The Debt Supercycle: Interest Rates at All-time Low

Greed

Source: Homer and Sylla (1991), Heim and Mirowski (1987),Weiller and Mirowski (1990), Hills, Thomas and Dimsdale (2015 forthcoming), Bank of England, Historical Statistics of the United States Millenial Edition , Volume 3 and Federal Reserve Economic Database. Notes: the

intervals on the x-axis change through time up to 1715. From 1715 onwards the intervals are every twenty years. Prior to the C18th the rates reflect the country with the lowest rate reported for each type of credit: 3000BC to 6th century BC - Babylonian empire; 6th century BC to

2nd century BC - Greece; 2nd century BC to 5th century AD - Roman Empire; 6th century BC to 10th century AD - Byzantium (legal limit); 12th century AD to 13th century AD - Netherlands ;13th century AD to 16th century AD - Italian states. From the C18th the interest rates are

of an annual frequency and reflect those of the most dominant money market: 1694 to 1918 this is assumed to be the UK; from 1919-2015 this is assumed to be the US. Rates used are as follows: Short rates: 1694-1717- Bank of England Discount rate;1717-1823 rate on 6 month

East India bonds; 1824-1919 rate on 3 month prime or first class bills; 1919-1996 rate on 4-6 month prime US commercial paper ; 1997-2014 rate on 3month AA US commercial paper to nonfinancials. Long rates: 1702-1919 - rate on long-term government UK annuities and

consols; 1919-1953, yield on long-term US government bond yields; 1954-2014 yield on 10 year US treasuries.

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GreedEurozone Banks vs Rest of the World

Eurozone bank assets: €31.2tn

Eurozone GDP: €11.1tn

Value of world’s gold stock : €7.5tn

US-Iraq war cost (2003-10): €2.7tn

Global hedge fund industry: €2.6tn

ESM: €0.5tn

Star Wars episode 7: €0.00026tn

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg, IMF, Wikipedia

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Page 19

The Financial Cycle: No Machine of Perpetual Motion

Greed

Central banks

foreign

reserves

A rise in NPL %

to 15%

(assuming a

20% recovery

rate)

Financial cycles and crises have become longer and deeper

Source: Keynote speech by Claudio Borio, National Association for Business Economics, 33rd Economic Policy Conference, March 2017.

Note: The graph compares the financial cycle with traditional measures of the business cycle.

1. The financial cycle as measured by frequency-based (bandpass) filters capturing medium-term cycles in real credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and real house prices.

2. The business cycle as measured by a frequency-based (bandpass) filter capturing fluctuations in real GDP over a period from one to eight years.

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Greed

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited

ProtectionismFiscal

stimulus

Geopolitical

risks

Collateral

effects

Resource

misallocationQE

Wealth

distribution

Asset

bubbles

Higher

inequality

Lower

productivity

Financial

boom / bust

Lower

potential

growth

Reforms +

Fiscal policy

More

monetary

stimulus

Populism

You are

here

Financial

repression

The Cost of Kicking the Debt Can

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Post crisis side-effects:

1. Asset bubbles

2. Rising inequality/political risk

3. Resource misallocation/lower productivity

21

Greed

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited

Benefits of QE

Growth

Costs of QE

Without QE With QE

Time

Payback Time – Prepare to Pay for QE’s Collateral Effects

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Page 22

Fear (2008-present)

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Page 23

Rebalancing

and

Revolutions

Rising

inequality

Growing

populism

Job

automation

Greater fiscal

spending

Lower inflation &

looser monetary

policy

Artificial

intelligencePolarisation in skills,

jobs and income

Extreme weather

Fear

Rebalancing and Revolutions

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Page 24

Fear

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited

Past Now

Economic theories built on

assumptions of efficient markets,

unlimited natural resources and

growing populations

Markets are inefficient

Limited resources, both natural and

economic

Ageing and shrinking populations

Economics

Technology/

Job markets

Society/

Politics

Rebalancing and Revolutions

Technology boosts productivity

Growth always creates new jobs

Wage growth and affordable

housing

Trade deals and globalisation

Automation/A.I./sharing economy

Jobless growth, income polarisation

and lower inflation

Low interest rates resource

misallocation low productivity

low quality & paid jobs

Phillips curve no longer working?

Asset appreciation > wage growth

Rising inequality Populism & more

inefficiencies / nationalism and

protectionism

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Page 25

Fear

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited

Past Now

Western powers influence /

dominate / dictate

Emerging Powers: China, India, Middle

East. Terrorism and nuclear threatsGeopolitics

Fiscal

policy

Monetary

policy

Rebalancing and Revolutions

Recession fiscal stimulus

multiplier effect

“Trickle Down”

Recession lower interest rates

credit growth higher

investment and consumption

High public debt limited room for

spending

Balance sheet recession investment

and consumption no longer responsive

to interest rates given over-leverage;

consumers look at permanent future

income: low interest rates depress

savings and spending

Low interest rates today

growth and inflation high

interest rates in the future

Low interest rates today asset

bubbles and growing inequality, wage

stagnation/hysteresis low interest

rates in the future

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Page 26

Fear

The Fourth Industrial Revolution

Blue-collar

workers

White-collar

workers

Blue-collar

workers

White-collar

workers

Creative

workers

Blue-collar

workers

White-collar

workers

Creative

workers

Workforce

100 years ago

Now Future

Automation

Information

Technology

Artificial

Intelligence

Machine

learning

3D printing

Sharing

economy

Ageing

population

Jobless growth

Structurally

lower inflation

Lower neutral

interest rate

Rising

inequality

Populism

More fiscal

spending

Universal Basic

IncomeSource: Algebris (UK) Limited

Rebalancing

and Revolutions

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Page 27

Inequality and the Politics of Rage

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.

Homeownership Education

Inequality Generational Divide

Wages/Income Wealth/Assets

Technology Globalisation QE/Monetary Policy

Politics

Health

Fear

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Page 28

Greed

QE, Wealth Distribution and the Inter-Generational Gap

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, “The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey Results from the first wave”, ECB Working Paper, March 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Total Financial AssetsDeposits Mutual funds Bonds SharesPension/ life insuranceOthers

16-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Median value of owned financial assets by age group, €000

Total Financial

Assets

Deposits Mutual

Funds

Bonds Shares Pension/

Life InsuranceOthers

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Page 29

Fear

Divided Kingdoms: Geographical Inequality

GDP per inhabitant by region in PPP, in relation to EU-28 average (2015)

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. Eurostat.

Note: As of 2014 for Albania, Norway and Iceland.

EU-28 Average = 100

< 75

75 – < 90

90 – < 100

100 – < 125

125 – < 150

>= 150

Data not available

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Page 30

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Lukasz Rachel and Thomas Smith, Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate, Bank of

England Working Paper No. 571, December 2016

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Now

Unexplained

Rising spread

Less public investment

Cheaper capital goods

Asian savings glut

Higher inequality

Demographic effects

Lower future growth

1990

-1%

-0.9%

-0.45%

-0.25%

-0.5%

-0.2%

-0.7%

-0.5%

-0.5%

Higher inequality

FearSocial and Corporate Inequality Lower Economic Growth

Neutral real rate in developed economies

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Page 31

Traditional Democracies Under Threat

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2006 – 2016 2006 - 2016 2006 - 2016 2006 - 2016

Full Democracies

Flawed Democracies

Hybrid Regimes

Authoritarian Regimes

Percentage world population living under:

Fear

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. The Economist Intelligence Unit.

Note: Population from country aggregates as measured by the EIU’s Democracy Index

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Page 32

Number of instances of global natural disasters

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. EMDAT

Fear

Extreme Weather Events are More Frequent

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1901 1924 1947 1970 1993 2016

Drought Earthquake

Landslide Volcanic activity

Wildfire Flood

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Page 33

Fear

QE

Pension

Overwriting

$45bn2

Rates

Investment

Grade Debt

Equity

Credit

Demand >

Supply for

Safe Assets

High Yield

Credit

Neg. Yielding Bond

Mass Increases

Short VIX

ETFs

$3.2bn1

Hunt for Yield

> Risky Assets

Real Estate, other

Illiquid assets

Equities (Public

and Private)

Yield and Spread

Compression

Low Vol.

Investment

Strategies

Overpaying Across

Asset Classes

Risk Parity

$600bn4

CTAs

$350bn8Equity Risk

Premium Lower

Term Premium

Vanishing

Bubbles?

Defaults

Postponed

Share

Buybacks

$495bn5

Vol Target /

Control

$360bn6

Risk

Premia

$250bn7

Vol Selling

Funds

$8bn3

Will The QE Bubble Unravel? Structural Financial Market Imbalances

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. 1 $3.2 billion in short-volatility strategies estimated from Bloomberg data. 2 $45 billion in pension short volatility overwriting programs estimated as of 2017 in Deutsche Bank’s 2017 Tail Risk Monitor. 3 $8 billion exposure from option writing funds

estimate from Macro Risk Advisers derivatives research by Pravit Chintawongvanich (April 7, 2017). 4 $400-600 billion estimate as of 2016 from Financial Times article by Makan and Wiggles (October 14, 2016) “Little Known Trading Strategy Exacerbates Market Turmoil”.5 $495 billion 2017 S&P 500 share buybacks estimate in Goldman Sachs “US Weekly Kickstart” (October 27, 2017) by David Kostin. 6 $360 billion exposure in Volatility Control Funds/Variable Annuity Funds exposure estimate based on J.P. Morgan Cross Asset Derivatives

Research Team research note (August 27, 2015) by Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan. 7 $250 billion exposure in Low Vol Risk Premia strategies estimated by Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott based on 2017 interview in Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.8 $350 billion AUM in Trend Following strategies/CTA based on J.P. Morgan Cross Asset Derivatives Research Team research note (August 27, 2015) by Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan.

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Page 34

Low Volatility and How Bubbles Look Like

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Bloomberg, Yale South Sea Bubble 1729 Project, Altas

Fear

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

T+0 T+20 T+40 T+60 T+80

Tulip mania (1934-1937)

South Sea Stock (1719-1720)

Nikkei (1984-1991)

Nasdaq (1995-2002)

BitCoin (2015-Now)

XIV (2016-Now)

Price Index vs Number of Months from the Start of the Bubble

(1636-1637)

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Page

50

500

5,000

1774 1794 1814 1834 1854 1874 1894 1914 1934 1954 1974 1994 2014

War of 1812

Civil War

WW I

WW II

Revolutionary War

US abandoned

the Gold

Standard

35

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited, Oregon State University.

Fear

Monetary Debasement, Economic and Social Crises in History

US Consumer Price Index, 1774 - 2017

log-scale

Classical Gold StandardBretton Woods

System

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Page 36

Hope

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Page

Fe

as

ibilit

y

37

Policy Measures Proposed Today

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.

Benefit

Hope

“Universal Basic Income”

(Switzerland, Sweden)

“QE for the

people”

(Italy, UK)

Tuition-free

university (UK)

“America first”

(United States)

“Take back Control”

(UK, other populism)“Partial basic income”

(Finland, Netherlands)

Trade

protectionism tariffs

(US / EU)

Rail & utilities

industries

nationalisation (UK)

Housing controls

for foreign buyers

/ speculators

(New Zealand)

Abolishment of

stamp duty for

first time home

buyers (UK)

Lowering

retirement /

pension age

(Italy, France)

Euro exit

(France, Italy)

Voluntary debt

defaults (Spain)

NAFTA exit

(United States)Labour market reforms

aimed at youth

unemployment (France)Tobin Tax

(Italy)

Workers’ re-

training

(Australia)

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Page 38

Policy Measures to Achieve Sustainability

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.

Initiatives

Fe

as

ibilit

yHope

Public Sector

Investment in research, education,

workforce re-training

Correct entitlements: link pension

liabilities to life expectancy

Financial system reform: introduce

debt flexibility, growth-linked bonds

Tax system reform: rebalance the

burden from income to assets.

Improve tax incentives for equity

funding

Private Sector

Improve skill retraining programs

Introduce alternatives to banks:

improve SME access to capital

markets

Consolidate banks

Revalue stakeholder corporate

model

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Page 39

Policy Measures to Achieve Sustainability

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited.

Initiatives

Fe

as

ibilit

yHope

Monetary Policy

Stricter monitoring of money

creation by commercial banks

(i.e. banking & shadow banking)

Financial stability as

primary mandate

Monetary Policy Reform

European Union

Youth unemployment EU-wide

programs / supervision

Fiscal transfers

Common finance minister / budget

Uniform taxation systems

(i.e. end taxation tourism)

Common defence budget

Euro bonds or Blue/Red bonds

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Page 40

Hope

Source: World Bank. OECD. UNESCO. IIASA. WHO. Bourguignon & Morrison. Gapminder.

It is Not All Bad

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Page 41

Hope

Source: World Bank.

It is Not All Bad

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Page

1. Financial system reform

Debt is not forever: ease the reduction of unsustainable burdens. Favour equity.

42

Hope

2. Reform pensions and entitlements

Link pensions to life expectancy, growth and market returns.

3. Reform monetary policy

Make financial stability a primary mandate, not a side game.

Central banks should take into account the long-term distortionary effects of their policies.

4. Improve productivity and rebalance opportunity

Investment in education, research and workforce re-training.

5. Fight inequality

Universal Basic Income and Inclusion Income do help, with incentives to prevent moral

hazard.

Conclusions

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Ulysses, The Sirens and Time Inconsistency

Source: Algebris (UK) Limited. “Ulysses and the Sirens”, Painting by J. W. Waterhouse, oil on canvas, 1891.

Hope

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Appendix

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Bibliography- Gallo A., How the American dream turned into greed and inequality, World Economic Forum, 12 October 2017

- Scars or scratches? Hysteresis in the euro area, Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva, 19 May 2017

- Hassan, F., di Mauro, F., Ottaviano, G. Banks credit and productivity growth, ECB Working Paper Series, February 2017

- Corlett, A., Clarke, S. Living standards 2017: the past, present and possible future of UK incomes, 31 January 2017

- Understanding Populism: Inequality by the Numbers, Blog post by Pushan Dutt (INSEAD Professor of Economics and Political Science), 16 December 2016

- Jarociński, M., Lenza, M., An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area, ECB Working Paper Series No 1966, September 2016

- Saito, I., Fading Ricardian Equivalence in Ageing Japan, IMF Working Paper 16/194, September 2016

- Democracy Index 2016: Revenge of the “deplorables”, The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2016

- Kuroda, H., “Comprehensive Assessment” of the Monetary Easing: Concept and Approaches, 5 September 2016

- Ball L., Gagnon J., Honohan P., Krogstrup S., What else can central banks do?, Vox, 2 September 2016

- Dauer U., German Savers Lose Faith in Banks, Stash Cash at Home, Wall Street Journal, 28 August 2016

- Jobst A., Lin H., The ECB’s Negative Rate Policy Has Been Effective but Faces Limits, IMF, 10 August 2016

- Stevens G., An Accounting: Address to the Anika Foundation Luncheon, 10 August 2016

- Gallo A., Our global financial system is broken. Here’s a plan for fixing it, World Economic Forum, 6 July 2016

- Williamson, S., Neo-Fisherism: A Radical Idea, or the Most Obvious Solution to the Low-Inflation Problem?, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 2016

- Kuroda, H., Overcoming Deflation: Theory and Practice, 20 June 2016

- Corsetti, G., Feld P. L., Koijen R., Reichlin L., Reis R., Rey H., Weder di Mauro B.,Reinforcing the Eurozone and protecting an open society: Refugee bonds, 27 May 2016

- Haldane, A. G., The Great Divide, Bank of England, 18 May 2016

- Rajan R., Rethinking the Global Monetary System, Speech at the London School of Economics, 10 May 2016

- Jones, R., Innovation, research and the UK’s productivity crisis, The University of Sheffield, April 2016

- Standard & Poor’s, QE and Economic Inequality: The UK Experience, 10 February 2016

- Cochrane, J., Do Higher Interest Rates Raise or Lower Inflation, 10 February 2016

- Kothari, S.P., Lewellen, J., Warner, J. B., The behaviour of aggregate corporate investment, MIT, December 2015

- Borio, C., Labour reallocation and productivity dynamics: financial causes, real consequences, BIS, December 2015

- Gallo, A., Why ECB’s quantitative easing won’t work and how it can be fixed, Financial Times, 7 December 2015

- Blanchard, O., E. Cerutti and L. Summers, Inflation and activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications, IMF Working Paper No 230., November 2015

- Borio, C., Revisiting three intellectual pillars of monetary policy received wisdom, Luncheon address, Cato Institute, 12 November 2015

- Borio C., Gambacorta, L., Hofmann, B., The influence of monetary policy on bank profitability, BIS, October 2015

- Contessi, S., Kerdnunvong, U., Asset bubbles: detecting and measuring them are not easy tasks, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 2015

- Belfied, Cribb, Hood, Joyce, Living Standards, Poverty and Inequality in the UK: 2015, Institute for Fiscal Study, July 2015

- Gallo, A., Rethink needed for monetary policy role, Financial Times, 1 July 2015

- Haldane, A. G., Stuck, Bank of England, 30 June 2015

- Borio C., Persistent unusually low interest rates. Why? What Consequences?, BIS, 28 June 2015

- IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015

- Gallo, A., Walker, R., Tyrrell-Hendry, L., Popovic, M., Grant, A., Pan, T., The Revolver | Divided Kingdom: Britain’s future beyond the election, 14 April 2015

- Sigurjonsson, F.; Monetary Reform, A better monetary system for Iceland, Report commission by the Prime Minister of Iceland, 20 March 2015

- OECD (2015), Economic Policy Reforms 2015: Going for Growth, OECD Publishing, 9 February 2015

- Milburn, Elitist Britain?, Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, 2014

- Kothari, S.P., Lewellen, J., Warner, J., The behavior of aggregate corporate investment, MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 5112-14, 19 October 2014

- Jahan S., Mahmud A. S., Papageorgiou C., What is Keynesian Economics?, IMF, September 2014

Algebris (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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Bibliography- Carrol, C.D., Slacalek, J., Tokuoka, K. (2014) The Distribution of Wealth and the Marginal Propensity to Consume, ECB Working Paper No 1655

- Sharpe, S.A. and Suarez, G.A. (2014) The insensitivity of investment to interest rates: Evidence from a survey of CFOs, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, FRB Washington DC

- Rotman, D., How Technology is Destroying Jobs, MIT Technology Review, 12 June 2013

- Koo, R., The world in balance sheet recession: causes, cure, and politics, Real-world Economics Review, issue no. 58, 2011

- Rajan, G. R., Let Them Eat Credit, New Republic, 27 August 2010

- Lewis, W. A., Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor, May 1954

- Reich, R., The Big Picture: How We Got Into This Mess, And How Get Out of It. December 2017

- Hobbes, M., Millennials are Screwed. The Huffington Post

Algebris Silver Bullet Articles

- The Silver Bullet | 2018: Irrational Complacency, 12 December 2017

- The Silver Bullet | The Central Bank Bubble: How Will It Burst?, 31 October 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Interplanetary Bubbles, 21 September 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Currency Wars: The Inflation Menace, , 17 August 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Rebalancing and Revolutions, 20 July 2017

- The Silver Bullet | The Low Volatility Trap, 15 June 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Is the Reflation Trade Over?, May 22, 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Europe’s Opportunity, May 4, 2017

- The Algebris View | Investing in the Time of Populism, Fiscal Excesses and the End of QE Infinity, April 20, 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Introducing the Brexit Walrus, March 31, 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Europe’s Long Way out of QE Infinity, March 23, 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Don’t Fret about Frexit, March 8, 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Greece: More Melodrachma, No Default, February 20, 2017

- The Silver Bullet | Don’t Give up on Europe, February 6, 2017

- The Silver Bullet | 2017: When Inflation Dreams Become Nightmares, January 19, 2017

- The Silver Bullet | 2017: The Movie, December 14, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Investing in the Time of Populism, November 15, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Trick or Tantrum?, October 31, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | The High Price of a Hard Brexit, October 12, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Investing when the monetary tide is turning, September 20, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Central bankers: the tide is turning, September 7, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Perpetual Motion, August 12, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | We are still dancing, July 14, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | The Divided Kingdom, June 28, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Brexit: it’s not EU, it’s me, June 13, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Trumponomics, June 1, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Brazil: The Caipirinha Crisis is Just Starting, May 17, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | China: Feeling the Stones of Japanification, May 4, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Alice and the Mad Interest Rate Party, April 19, 2016

- The Silver Bullet | Helicopter Money (that’s what I want), April 12, 2016

Algebris (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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Algebris* is a global investment manager with a historical focus

on the financial sector across the capital structure

Founded in 2006, Algebris has gradually expanded its expertise

and entered the global credit and Italian securities (equity and

credit) spaces to capture a broader set of value opportunities

25 Investment Professionals

150+ Years of Combined Experience

Diverse Strategies

Long Only and Hedged

* Algebris hereinafter refers to Algebris (UK) Limited

EUR 10.9bn

Regulated daily dealing funds and AIFs

AUM

A Global Asset Manager

11 Years

Successful Track Record in FinancialsBoston

Regulated by the SEC

LondonRegulated by the FCA

Milan

SingaporeRegulated by the MAS

5 Offices

Enabling 24h Coverage and Local Footprint

Introduction to Algebris

AUM data as of 3.12.2017 and across ten funds and a number of managed accounts.

Source: Algebris

Luxembourg

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