The Rational Offender

Deterrence Theory

Rational Choice Theory

Routine Activities Theory

Social Context

• Classical School Criminology (1750s)– Bentham, Beccaria as “utilitarian philosophers”– Articulated a “general theory” of human

behavior

• Rebirth of Deterrence– Social Context of U.S. in the 1970s – Murray, Martinson, Economists

Base Assumptions about Humans

1. Rational (cost/benefit)

2. Hedonistic

3. Human behavior can be controlled through certain, swift, severe punishment

Additional Baggage (assumptions)

• General theory (explains all crime)

• Equally feel pain

• Equally judge opportunity, pleasure

Deterrence Theory

• Criminal behavior (or crime rates) vary directly with _______ of FORMAL punishment. – Certainty– Severity– Swiftness

• MICRO or MACRO?• Specific or General

Marginal versus Absolute

• Absolute deterrence: the existence of formal punishment reduces crime

• Marginal: increases in existing formal punishment reduces crime further

General Deterrence (Macro)

• What should reduce crime rates?

• Evidence:– Severity of Punishment

• Death Penalty Research

– Certainty of Punishment• Experiments in Certainty (KC patrol)

– Swiftness of Punishment?

General Deterrence Micro Level

• An individuals perceptions of _______ influence their decision to commit crimes. – “Perceptual Deterrence”

• Criticism of “objective” = do people really know the clearance rate?– Better: what do you think the clearance rate is?

Perceptual Deterrence Research

• Initial cross sectional studies:

Perceived risk, severity SR crime– But, what is the causal order??– Deterrence vs. “Experiential” effect

• Manipulation of Perceived Risk– Scared Straight

Specific Deterrence

• A person who commits a crime and is punished is less likely to commit additional crimes.– Swift, Certain, Severe (Marginal)

• How test these propositions?

Testing Specific Deterrence

• Prison vs. Probation?– Perhaps, “time in prison” or “type of prison”

• More realistically– Probation vs. Intensive Probation– Probation vs. Boot Camp

Deterrence Review:

• Deals only with formal legal sanctions.– Is this fair?

• Empirical Support? – General Deterrence

• Macro

• Micro (Perceptual)

– Specific Deterrence

Why little support for deterrence?

• We can’t get certain, severe, swift enough

• The theory is based on bad assumptions– How rational are we?– Equality of opportunity, pleasure, pain?

• “Marginal” deterrence!

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

• General Deterrence: certain, swift, and severe punishment reduces crime rates, or the probability that an individual will offend

• Specific Deterrence: CS&S punishment reduces recidivism

• Can’t/Won’t make sentences swift, certain, and severe enough? – Incapacitate