The Road to the White House : Strategies and Outcomes in the

1960 and 2000 Presidential Campaigns

Joseph Hollis

For Prof. Jeremy Lewis

Capstone 499 : A final Tribute to the Lewis School of Government

Road to the White House: Intro

Basic Strategies of the Presidential Campaign

1960, 2000 campaign overviews

-candidates, organizations

-candidate strategies

-outcomes

Comparisons and Conclusions

Broad Strategies of the Presidential Campaign

• Create a Leadership Image• Building a Winning Geographic Coalition• The Incumbency Factor• Basic Common Appeal• Reaching Voters• Targeting Messages• Timing Appeals• Turning out the Voters

Candidates in 1960 Campaign: John F. Kennedy v. Richard Nixon

• Kennedy Background• Nixon Background

• Vice-Presidents – Strategically beneficial

or not?

1960: Kennedy Strategies (Theodore White,

Making of the President)

• Focus on 9 large states (New York, Pennsylvania, California, Michigan, Texas, Illinois, Ohio, New Jersey, Massachusetts)

• Accentuating Kennedy’s Image• Building a Leadership Image• Discredit the Eisenhower Admin/ make appeal to the

public• Brain Trust for ideas (Harvard Professors

– Would use data in Rhetoric and Speeches – wanted to be informed on National Policy

– Civil Rights Strategy– Overall Campaign Strategy – Full Speed, all the

time – almost recklessly

1960: Nixon Strategies (Theodore White,

Making of the President)

-Accentuate his National Image“Leh Hall - Jim Shapley” Strategy

-Peace and Prosperity Campaign

Farm and Catholic voteFolksy AppealPlans BoardPledge to Campaign 50 StatesThree Week BlitzThe Eisenhower Factor

1960: The Strategic Role of Media in a Presidential Campaign

• First time for everything• Candidate preparation – internal and external

factors• Appearance is Key• Outcome of the Presidential Debates

– 57 percent of those who voted believed that TV debates influenced their decisions……….6 percent, or over 4,000,000 voters, said their final decision was on the debates alone…..

– Of the 4,000,000, 72% for Kennedy, and 26% for Nixon– (GALLUP POLLING, 1960)

Electoral College: 1960

• John F. Kennedy – 303 (34,221,349)

• Richard M. Nixon – 219 (34,108, 647)

• Harry F. Byrd - 15

Candidates in the 2000 Campaign: George W. Bush, Al Gore

• Gore Background• Bush Background

• Running Mates??

Homogeneous, or not?

Gore Campaign Organization: 2000

• No Centralized Structure

• Too many staffers with too much input

• Campaign team internal problems– Bush +17 in approval

rating at one point in time

– Debates

Gore 2000 Strategies

• Campaign Intensely• Initial “Attack Strategy” (would backfire)• “Peace and Prosperity” trip• Use the debates for advantage• “Own man” (Leadership appeal, basic)• Issue stances (refer to handouts)• Reproductive Choice• What to do with Clinton?

Bush 2000 Campaign Organization

Gore 2000 Strategies Continued

• Gore kisses wife• Implications of it all

Bush 2000 Strategies

• Neglect the issues that divided Republicans, pitted stark ideological differences to Dems

• Outsider of Washington: “Rhetoric of Uniting”

“Compassionate Conservatism”

• Moral Presidential Leadership

• Geographically – California emphasis

2000: Electoral Outcomes (2)

• George W. Bush 50,456,169 – 271

• Albert Gore, Jr. 50,996,116 – 266

2000: Electoral Outcomes (1)

Bush had safe states

Gore safe states?

Florida Recount

Supreme Court decides President of the United States, split along ideological (partisan – lines)

2000: Role of Media in the Modern Presidential Campaign

• Media has an intense impact on the Presidential Campaign

• Much of the campaign is dedicated to Media-related activities, and over half is spent on the budget

• Candidate will orchestrate campaign for the news media

• Hopefuls do everything to prevent embarrassment on television

2000: Role of Media in the Modern Presidential Campaign Continued (2)

• MEDIA ADVERTISING– Consultants, and professional supplement the

campaign staff (design, produce advertisements as well as buy time on different stations)

– GORE : Washington Based Public Relations Firm

– BUSH : Stuart Stevens, New York Filmmaker, Mark McKinnon, Texas Media Consultant

– TARGETING!

2000: Role of Media in the Modern Presidential Campaign Continued (3) Televised Debate

• Expectations beforehand

• Outcomes of Debates• Poll Data

Conclusion

• Recap of Points

• The End